Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on August 21, 2021, 08:14:55 AM

Title: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: StormNine on August 21, 2021, 08:14:55 AM
Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
747 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR HOUSTON, HUMPHREYS, HICKMAN, AND
DICKSON COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Dickson County in middle Tennessee...
  Northern Hickman County in middle Tennessee...
  Houston County in middle Tennessee...
  Northeastern Humphreys County in middle Tennessee...

* Until 1045 AM CDT.

* At 747 AM CDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms
  producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 9
  inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Houston, Humphreys, Hickman,
  and Dickson Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
  SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Charles L. on August 21, 2021, 08:17:08 AM
Wouldn’t shock me to see some areas reach 12-15” before this rain train fizzles out. The small zone from Gorman to Tennessee City has been getting hammered all morning long.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: StormNine on August 21, 2021, 08:19:18 AM
11.66 inches of rain measured north of Centerville.   
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 21, 2021, 08:53:46 AM
11.66 inches of rain measured north of Centerville.
waverly 14 .5 inches. ….  Per my brother I called me this morning
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 21, 2021, 09:05:04 AM
National guard called in to help evacuate people along hwy70 between humphries county  and Dickson county
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Beth on August 21, 2021, 09:44:07 AM
It is really bad here. 12+ inches and still pouring.  We are fine and do not live in a flood prone area.  Water mains have busted and power is out in many places.  Saying more rain this afternoon.  This is August????  ::wow::
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 21, 2021, 10:01:55 AM
Reports of water 4 foot deep in Waverly Elementary School.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: StormNine on August 21, 2021, 10:25:38 AM
14 inches of rain now occurred at the Dickson/Humphreys/Hickman County triple point.   
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 21, 2021, 10:33:09 AM
14 inches of rain now occurred at the Dickson/Humphreys/Hickman County triple point.
actually on the cusp of 15 inches now …
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Beth on August 21, 2021, 12:07:04 PM
Waverly is in bad shape!  Asking People with boats to come help.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: dwagner88 on August 21, 2021, 12:34:36 PM
Looks like the area around McEwen has maxed out the scale on dual pol storm total rainfall. Over 17”. That’s insane.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: StormNine on August 21, 2021, 12:51:38 PM
Looks like the area around McEwen has maxed out the scale on dual pol storm total rainfall. Over 17”. That’s insane.

Very similar to the flooding we saw in Mississippi back in June.   

Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 21, 2021, 01:29:14 PM
Very similar to the flooding we saw in Mississippi back in June.   
another very heavy rain band building in southern Illinois coming down. Not good
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Beth on August 21, 2021, 01:30:25 PM
Hope that one makes a detour! 
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Beth on August 21, 2021, 01:44:30 PM
Highway 13 coming from Hurricane Mills
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Charles L. on August 21, 2021, 02:10:11 PM
Looking on Google maps and it looks like HWY 70 between Waverly and McEwen has numerous flooded roadways. Also the entire town of Waverly looks to be closed off. Wow
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Thundersnow on August 21, 2021, 03:06:22 PM
We drove through that area on I-40 W right at the height of it this morning. Let me tell you it was harrowing. The amazing thing is we drove though the back edge of the rain about the TN River. By the time we were around Camden, the pavement was dry. That was an intense drive, and I noticed flooding off the side of the side of the interstate in several places.

Just didn’t realize the magnitude of it and that Waverly was affected so severely.

Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: StormNine on August 21, 2021, 03:45:57 PM
https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=4012281612228696&ref=notif&notif_id=1629574692278429&notif_t=live_video

Nearly every structure in Waverly to McEwen was likely impacted in some way by flooding.   
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: schneitzeit on August 21, 2021, 04:48:40 PM
I hope all is well with y'all. I hate to hear about this right now. I'm checking on my family often to see how they're doing. The brunt of it missed them to the west.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 21, 2021, 05:06:07 PM
 Finally got through the phone talking to my sister law… she says starting hear report of finding body of a little boy along creek in the sub division lived at… hope not true
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Nash_LSU on August 21, 2021, 05:27:02 PM
Unreal out in Waverly. No place can handle 17 inches, but Waverly is in that valley and it must have been a nightmare.

That whole area is about to get round 2, too. ****.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 21, 2021, 05:58:56 PM
Looks like that next batch starting build coming down out Kentucky heading right into the flooded areas already , could hinder the search n rescue operations very least for humphries and Dickson county tonite …. Tornado warning now for Dickson county
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Jilly on August 21, 2021, 06:09:04 PM
Quote
Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning
TNC043-212330-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0033.210821T2257Z-210821T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
557 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Dickson County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 630 PM CDT.

* At 557 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 9 miles north of Dickson, moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Dickson around 610 PM CDT.
  Burns around 630 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Charlotte and Vanleer.

This includes Interstate 40 near mile marker 173.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 8752 3628 8745 3622 8720 3601 8732
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 293DEG 15KT 3619 8742

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Schaper
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: dwagner88 on August 21, 2021, 07:08:24 PM
Some of the helicopter shots look like the aftermath of a tsunami. Just insane. And it’s storming again there right now.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 21, 2021, 07:21:11 PM
Tornado been spotted on ground around iuka ms  not long ago ….
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 21, 2021, 07:30:36 PM
Reports of damage to houses in iuka ms area …starting to hear
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 21, 2021, 07:48:39 PM
Terrible news coming out humphries county … 3 babies have been found dead . Just terrible . God speed heal for the families …. :(
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: StormNine on August 21, 2021, 08:06:05 PM
At least 10 deaths and 20 missing in the morning flooding.   
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: wmp600 on August 21, 2021, 08:18:57 PM
Terrible news coming out humphries county … 3 babies have been found dead . Just terrible . God speed heal for the families …. :(
This is horrible. The loss of life & property damage is terrible. It seems like each day brings something else bad.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on August 21, 2021, 11:24:35 PM
Waverly is a complete mess. Unlike the normal flooding we get, this flash flooding was all in the swiftwater class. A lot of folks brought boats, and we had 2 get taken down stream. It is some of the worst damage I have seen outside of a tornado.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Beth on August 21, 2021, 11:27:27 PM
It has been like a nightmare for Waverly. Dickson got hit hard too but nothing like Waverly.  Two 7 mth old twins were swept from their father’s arms. They bodies were located this afternoon.  The last I saw there were 30 people still missing.  It was a devastating day for us all!!! 😭
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Charles L. on August 22, 2021, 06:43:30 AM
https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/sheriff-multiple-deaths-others-still-missing-after-flooding-in-humphreys-county/ (https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/sheriff-multiple-deaths-others-still-missing-after-flooding-in-humphreys-county/)

10 dead and 40 missing. Heartbreaking. Not only were numerous homes flooded, but also they were completely swept off their foundation.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bentoncostrmchs on August 22, 2021, 07:21:21 AM
To give you an idea of where my group was staged and water levels. The blue is Trace creek. The red is where the water levels were.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: dwagner88 on August 22, 2021, 12:07:40 PM
Up to 17 dead now, but the missing is still at 40.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: gcbama on August 22, 2021, 04:23:06 PM
this localized flood event is quickly turning into the top category of worst natural disasters this state has ever seen , the loss of life is staggering from these floods :(
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Eric on August 22, 2021, 05:05:52 PM
Seen and heard several reports where, in some spots, the water went from just am inch or two deep to several feet deep in a manner of minutes.  Reminds me of the flash floods often seen in the canyons out west.  Just a tremendous amount of force with a rapid depth change like that.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 22, 2021, 05:07:46 PM
this localized flood event is quickly turning into the top category of worst natural disasters this state has ever seen , the loss of life is staggering from these floods :(
seems like that town has taken It on the chin pretty hard few times with disasters… floods then big famous train derailment back 77 
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 22, 2021, 05:18:03 PM
Death toll now  up to 21 :(
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Charles L. on August 22, 2021, 05:40:36 PM
Seen and heard several reports where, in some spots, the water went from just am inch or two deep to several feet deep in a manner of minutes.  Reminds me of the flash floods often seen in the canyons out west.  Just a tremendous amount of force with a rapid depth change like that.

We had something like this happen in Gallatin several years ago. A couple lived where some raised railroad tracks acted as a barrier or dam to their home. Well during one flash flood event a portion of the railroad track buckled and it sent a huge push of water towards their house.

Not sure if something similar to that happened here, but I can’t imagine how scary something like that would be
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 22, 2021, 06:25:50 PM
I saw where the Frito Lay guy was at Dollar General and he said it went from coming under the door to chin deep in about 45 seconds. By the time he was able to swim out his truck was floating off.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: StormNine on August 22, 2021, 07:07:04 PM
We had something like this happen in Gallatin several years ago. A couple lived where some raised railroad tracks acted as a barrier or dam to their home. Well during one flash flood event a portion of the railroad track buckled and it sent a huge push of water towards their house.

Not sure if something similar to that happened here, but I can’t imagine how scary something like that would be

The Blanco River flood between Austin and San Antonio during Memorial Day Weekend 2015 is one event that seems to be similar in intensity.  That one had quite a bit of force and sadly just like in Humphreys County, the intensity caught people off guard.   
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Charles L. on August 22, 2021, 07:38:36 PM
I saw where the Frito Lay guy was at Dollar General and he said it went from coming under the door to chin deep in about 45 seconds. By the time he was able to swim out his truck was floating off.

For it to be that intense something along the creek or river had to fail or collapse, right? I can’t imagine that amount of water rising that fast without some sort of failure
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Clay on August 22, 2021, 07:52:23 PM
Still dozens of people missing despite the incredible loss of life thus far. Nearly all of Waverly runs along a creek that drains to the TN River. This was greater than a 1000-year flood event.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: schneitzeit on August 22, 2021, 07:54:52 PM
This is now international news and ranks among the world's catastrophic floods this year. I hope all of you and your families are doing well right now. This seemed to come out of nowhere which makes it so frightening.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 22, 2021, 08:02:23 PM
For it to be that intense something along the creek or river had to fail or collapse, right? I can’t imagine that amount of water rising that fast without some sort of failure
18 inches of rain in short time would cause quite a bit failure indeed…
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Thundersnow on August 22, 2021, 11:06:06 PM
 https://youtu.be/WJX_uCOUHZk (https://youtu.be/WJX_uCOUHZk)
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 23, 2021, 07:54:47 AM
https://youtu.be/WJX_uCOUHZk (https://youtu.be/WJX_uCOUHZk)
simply gut wrenching seeing pics and vids coming in… all my In laws live Waverly … thank god all is good for them they live on the ridge part off 13…   If things go as planned I will be up there this upcoming weekend to help support needy families whatever I can do. A lot cleanup ahead .
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Thundersnow on August 23, 2021, 08:26:07 AM
For it to be that intense something along the creek or river had to fail or collapse, right? I can’t imagine that amount of water rising that fast without some sort of failure

Good question.

I'm looking at the topo map of that area. It's an east-west flowing creek that empties into the TN River/KY Lake not many miles to the west. It appears to be a fairly steep valley with ranges of hills with side tributaries flowing out of the hills from the north and south. I'm no expert on any of this by any stretch. But, I just wonder if the drainage area just hit a tipping point. The throughput of the creek hit a wall when it reached a certain level before flowing out into the lake, and it wasn't able to as efficiently eject the extra water, as the heavy rainfall slammed all the side tributaries with massive volumes of water which all quickly emptied into the valley that Waverly sits in.

That's just an amateur guess.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Thundersnow on August 23, 2021, 08:37:41 AM
This tragic and historic event deserves its own thread. So, I have split it off from the August thread.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: schneitzeit on August 23, 2021, 08:40:27 AM
Does anyone know of a way to donate to the folks affected?
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: dwagner88 on August 23, 2021, 08:52:02 AM
Good question.

I'm looking at the topo map of that area. It's an east-west flowing creek that empties into the TN River/KY Lake not many miles to the west. It appears to be a fairly steep valley with ranges of hills with side tributaries flowing out of the hills from the north and south. I'm no expert on any of this by any stretch. But, I just wonder if the drainage area just hit a tipping point. The throughput of the creek hit a wall when it reached a certain level before flowing out into the lake, and it wasn't able to as efficiently eject the extra water, as the heavy rainfall  slammed all the side tributaries with massive volumes of water which all quickly emptied into the valley that Waverly sits in.

That's just an amateur guess.
I was looking at this on Google Maps today. The headwaters of Trace Creek are in McEwen where the highest rain totals were recorded. McEwen actually straddles two watersheds. The north side of town drains to Waverly, the south side towards Hurricane Mills and the Duck River. Hurricane Mills was also hit with horrible flash flooding, but it's a more sparsely populated area. The watershed appears to choke down around Waverly. It is actually far more broad up near McEwen. That natural choke point led to a worst case scenario for flash flooding. That also explains why the water rise was reported to be so rapid, and why the damage looks like a tsunami.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Thundersnow on August 23, 2021, 09:11:50 AM
I think you're right. I believe that feature of higher elevation east of the River is Tennessee Ridge. The creeks basically squeeze through that, which bottlenecks the runoff.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Beth on August 23, 2021, 10:30:48 AM
One of the citizens that lives in Waverly said that Rust Creek use to be a deep creek. But that the last 40 years it started to fill up with rocks, trees and other debris. Unfortunately nothing had been put in place to dredge it out.  I am sure it will now.
Our Church in Dickson is Compassion Church And they are taking enormous amounts of supplies to Waverly in tractor trailer trucks.  The Citizens are begging for heavy duty machinery to lift the debris to find their loved ones. 
If you want to donate to this disaster our Church has a link but also You can google Waverly TN disaster relief.
One of my daughter’s close friend lost her toddler. He was swept away like so many others. He has not been located. 
But Tennessean’s are doing so much to help.  We are the Volunteer State.  If you are a Praying person then please pray that lost loved ones can be found and families can have closures.  Dickson got hit pretty hard to but nothing like Waverly.  Our Schools are closed today as so many roads were torn up from the flooding here.  But we were very lucky and had no water issues.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Thundersnow on August 23, 2021, 10:17:42 PM
I heard an explanation for the rapid nature of the flood in those neighborhoods.

It seems that there was a bridge upstream that created a damming situation with debris that washed into the upstream side of it, forming a temporary reservoir of flood water. The mass gave way and collapsed, sending the wall of water crashing downstream.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: StormNine on August 24, 2021, 08:05:39 AM
I heard an explanation for the rapid nature of the flood in those neighborhoods.

It seems that there was a bridge upstream that created a damming situation with debris that washed into the upstream side of it, forming a temporary reservoir of flood water. The mass gave way and collapsed, sending the wall of water crashing downstream.

In some of the pictures, you can see the debris along that bridge. Similar to the Blanco River situation in TX (2015) and some of your western floods just having a narrower channel, in general, helps max out the already powerful force that water has because it is occurring over a smaller surface area. Just like you would rather get hit with a regular tennis shoe upside your head versus the point of a high-heeled shoe.  The force is spread out more evenly over the area of the tennis shoe versus the high heels.       

There is actually some gradient from about 850 ft near McEwen to around 550 ft to Waverly that is enough to probably make some difference as well.

At the end of the day getting 17 inches in 6 hours is just going to make a bad sitaution for pretty much anyone.   
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Thundersnow on August 24, 2021, 08:37:08 AM
To further elaborate so this even makes more sense, it was apparently a railroad bridge where the event occurred. The railroad grade/train track is elevated. When the crossing over the creek was blocked, the track ridge actually behaved like a levee, which contained floodwaters backing up behind the railroad crossing. When the blockage at the railroad bridge broke loose, it truly was like a dam broke.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Nash_LSU on August 24, 2021, 08:43:53 AM
To further elaborate so this even makes more sense, it was apparently a railroad bridge where the event occurred. The railroad grade/train track is elevated. When the crossing over the creek was blocked, the track ridge actually behaved like a levy, which contained floodwaters backing up behind the railroad crossing. When the blockage at the railroad bridge broke loose, it truly was like a dam broke.

Here is some drone video of said railroad bridge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAhL91FRnAk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAhL91FRnAk)
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Charles L. on August 24, 2021, 10:09:43 AM
To further elaborate so this even makes more sense, it was apparently a railroad bridge where the event occurred. The railroad grade/train track is elevated. When the crossing over the creek was blocked, the track ridge actually behaved like a levee, which contained floodwaters backing up behind the railroad crossing. When the blockage at the railroad bridge broke loose, it truly was like a dam broke.

That is almost exactly what happened, to the detail, in Sumner County several years ago
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: joemomma on August 24, 2021, 11:56:42 AM
Maybe I missed it, as I haven't been following weather very closely of late, but where did all this rain come from? 
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Thundersnow on August 24, 2021, 01:22:34 PM
Maybe I missed it, as I haven't been following weather very closely of late, but where did all this rain come from?

A boundary was stalled over western Middle TN in a very humid air mass, which was the focus for continuous and training thunderstorms for several hours.

Someone else might come in with a better meteorological explanation.

I will say that I noticed at the time that Henri was out in the Atlantic moving northward toward the Northeast. I was wondering at that time if it could have been an indirect factor and put the breaks on features moving through the US. A Bermuda high or ridge to the east can do that too, though.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Bruce on August 24, 2021, 02:19:02 PM
A boundary was stalled over western Middle TN in a very humid air mass, which was the focus for continuous and training thunderstorms for several hours.

Someone else might come in with a better meteorological explanation.

I will say that I noticed at the time that Henri was out in the Atlantic moving northward toward the Northeast. I was wondering at that time if it could have been an indirect factor and put the breaks on features moving through the US. A Bermuda high or ridge to the east can do that too, though.
nailed it man… bingo
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 24, 2021, 04:03:53 PM
Not the 17 inches but the heavy rain was forecasted. It actually set up a little east of the forecast. Dyersburg was in the bullseye but only received a couple of showers.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: Eric on August 25, 2021, 08:04:42 AM
OHX was on it 48 hours in advance.  They were eye-balling the Tennessee River corridor as ground zero.  The amounts, each subsequent model run, were increasing.  To say they were concerned would be an immense understatement.
Title: Re: 8/21/2021 Waverly Flood Disaster
Post by: schneitzeit on August 25, 2021, 12:26:13 PM
OHX was on it 48 hours in advance.  They were eye-balling the Tennessee River corridor as ground zero.  The amounts, each subsequent model run, were increasing.  To say they were concerned would be an immense understatement.

That's great to hear. I hope some of the folks knew in advance. I'm certain OHX saved lives.