Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Tropical Spin Zone => Topic started by: cgauxknox on April 08, 2022, 11:50:00 AM

Title: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: cgauxknox on April 08, 2022, 11:50:00 AM
It may be April, but Colorado State has released an above normal prediction for 2022: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: BeetleChe13 on April 17, 2022, 10:33:31 AM
Many others are forecasting an above average season as well. We already have warmer than normal sea surface temps and are in a La Nina pattern like last year.
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: cgauxknox on May 12, 2022, 06:20:06 AM
An interesting report from NOAA: https://apnews.com/article/climate-storms-science-air-pollution-united-states-a629da4d72fa94d75f6668acd5a04bf3
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: dwagner88 on May 15, 2022, 01:27:28 PM
The GFS would like to skip early season tropical storms and go directly to eastern GOM hurricanes. It’s been showing up for a couple of days now.
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: Cody029 on May 15, 2022, 02:25:34 PM
The GFS would like to skip early season tropical storms and go directly to eastern GOM hurricanes. It’s been showing up for a couple of days now.
Yeah 1 run had it go straight north then it had it go more towards the Carolinas now its been several runs with it hitting Florida.
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: wfrogge on May 16, 2022, 12:36:45 PM
fairly common for the GFS to show canes in the gulf this far out. Always needs to be watched but I have seen this show before
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: cgauxknox on May 22, 2022, 08:44:11 PM
We've now got Invest 90L in the Gulf, just south of the FL panhandle/AL. NOAA has it with less than a 40% chance of development, but it is the first organized system this season.
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: dwagner88 on May 23, 2022, 01:55:57 PM
First good rain since the start of April! Over 2" in the bucket from 90L as it swings overhead.
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: cgauxknox on May 31, 2022, 07:50:55 AM
It looks like we have a good chance of Hurricane Agatha crossing into the Gulf and turning into a TD or TS Alex by the end of the week. Right now there seems to be too much shear to develop into much of a threat, so it will mostly be a rain-maker. It is something to track with the first day or hurricane season tomorrow.
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: cgauxknox on June 02, 2022, 06:05:14 PM
We should see our first tropical storm of the season tomorrow and FL has TS watches coming out.
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: Beth on June 03, 2022, 03:37:02 PM
We should see our first tropical storm of the season tomorrow and FL has TS watches coming out.

I am glad it is heading up the East coast. Leaving tomorrow night to head to Clearwater Beach.  So ready to have a relaxing time! 😎😎😎
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: cgauxknox on June 03, 2022, 03:44:23 PM
I am glad it is heading up the East coast. Leaving tomorrow night to head to Clearwater Beach.  So ready to have a relaxing time! 😎😎😎
You should be free and clear for a great trip - enjoy!
Title: Re: 2022 Tropical Season
Post by: Cody029 on June 09, 2022, 10:02:36 PM
Past few days the GFS has been hinting at a system in the Gulf around June 20th. Something to watch as thats also what seems to be what gives us a break from the ridge for a little after next weeks torch. If ridge holds it could push the storm towards Texas/Mexico or curve it to Florida. But if the ridge breaks/weakens earlier it could allow the storm to push deeper into the Gulf and being a decent storm.