Post by: Curt on August 30, 2021, 01:40:51 PM
Post by: cgauxknox on August 30, 2021, 01:43:02 PM
Post by: Bruce on August 30, 2021, 08:09:02 PM
Fire away. Looks like some cooler nights are on tap later this week. Climatology suggests we should be ending summer in the next 30 days.we end the month good ole hot days n dry as usual . Nothing new
Post by: stayrose38 on August 31, 2021, 02:45:31 PM
Post by: StormNine on September 01, 2021, 05:52:14 PM
Post by: StormNine on September 01, 2021, 05:54:40 PM
Post by: mamMATTus on September 01, 2021, 08:30:02 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 02, 2021, 04:44:05 AM
[attachimg=1]
Post by: dwagner88 on September 02, 2021, 08:56:08 AM
Post by: snowdog on September 02, 2021, 09:33:31 AM
The first week of Sept looks like perfect pre-Fall weather to me. Can't really ask for better temps this early in Met Fall. (or were you referring to the end of Sept?)
Amen. Loving it. Wife and myself enjoyed a nice evening out on our deck last night. Perfect weather.
Post by: schneitzeit on September 02, 2021, 11:44:47 AM
NYC got wrecked with flash flooding yesterday. They broke both their hourly and 24 hour rainfall records. This is after significant flooding from Henri last week.
Wild weather. Tornado in east Philly/New Jersey- and a long-track wedge at that, like mamattus said. Very rare. The damage looks like it is at least an EF3. Some houses collapsed entirely so I wonder if it might be an EF4.
Flooding has shut everything down on the coast. Glad I'm not down there. I believe the fatalities in the Northeast are up to 9.
Mullica Hill, N.J.
(https://cdn.abcotvs.com/dip/images/10993968_090221-wpvi-mullica-hill-tornado-damage-raw-chopper-video-vid.jpg?w=800&r=16%3A9)
Post by: gcbama on September 02, 2021, 01:35:20 PM
Wild weather. Tornado in east Philly/New Jersey- and a long-track wedge at that, like mamattus said. Very rare. The damage looks like it is at least an EF3. Some houses collapsed entirely so I wonder if it might be an EF4.
Flooding has shut everything down on the coast. Glad I'm not down there. I believe the fatalities in the Northeast are up to 9.
Mullica Hill, N.J.
(https://cdn.abcotvs.com/dip/images/10993968_090221-wpvi-mullica-hill-tornado-damage-raw-chopper-video-vid.jpg?w=800&r=16%3A9)
agreed looks e-4ish in some spots....just goes to show , a large tornado can happen almost anywhere in the lower 48
Post by: StormNine on September 02, 2021, 06:45:00 PM
Top analog is 2007.
Longer range models suggest a hot mid to late September and most of October before the bottom falls in November.
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 02, 2021, 06:50:38 PM
Signs that a merged Sonora/Bermuda Ridge is coming by mid-September.You are banned.
Top analog is 2007.
Longer range models suggest a hot mid to late September and most of October before the bottom falls in November.
Post by: gcbama on September 02, 2021, 07:01:41 PM
Signs that a merged Sonora/Bermuda Ridge is coming by mid-September.
Top analog is 2007.
Longer range models suggest a hot mid to late September and most of October before the bottom falls in November.
hottest sept I remember was 2017, toward the end of the month family member had late september wedding planned because you know usually its nice that time of year, lol not 2017, it was 93 that day with muggy dew points, it was like that almost the whole month
Post by: Bruce on September 02, 2021, 07:52:12 PM
Signs that a merged Sonora/Bermuda Ridge is coming by mid-September.yeah blind man could see that coming lol… wouldn’t surprise me see November even start off way above normal temps
Top analog is 2007.
Longer range models suggest a hot mid to late September and most of October before the bottom falls in November.
Post by: StormNine on September 02, 2021, 08:43:19 PM
hottest sept I remember was 2017, toward the end of the month family member had late september wedding planned because you know usually its nice that time of year, lol not 2017, it was 93 that day with muggy dew points, it was like that almost the whole month
2018 and 2019 were very hot and lasted that way until the 2nd week of October.
The second half of Sept 2017 was hot, but the first half was refreshing.
Post by: Bruce on September 03, 2021, 02:52:17 PM
Post by: snowdog on September 03, 2021, 03:26:01 PM
the 12z euro is starting to look really toasty ::blowtorch::
I just looked. Highs in the low 80s/upper 70's and nighttime lows around 60, by the end of the run. Seems to be of the milquetoast variety of toasts.
Post by: Bruce on September 03, 2021, 04:13:53 PM
I just looked. Highs in the low 80s/upper 70's and nighttime lows around 60, by the end of the run. Seems to be of the milquetoast variety of toasts.end run ridge sets on top us… heading into late September
Post by: StormNine on September 09, 2021, 11:23:15 AM
I am going to say it as clear as I possibly can, this pattern we are heading into mid-month and will likely last through the entire 2nd half of the month just SUCKS.
This is 2005, 2007, 2016, and 2018 all rolled up into one pile of immense suck. That Gulf of Alaska/West Canada trough, the higher heights along the Aleutian island chain, and the ridging that would probably send the 90s or at least upper 80s well into eastern parts of Canada. The only somewhat silver lining is that the worst of the heat will be to our north.
To make matters worse we develop a weakness over the Gulf of Mexico which means situations like last years Hurricane Sandy where you trap/slow down a tropical system underneath a ridge become more likely.
Just like the years mentioned you will probably need a tropical system or a powerful low-pressure system/severe weather to break this pattern sometime later in the Fall.
Post by: StormNine on September 09, 2021, 11:27:07 AM
Post by: StormNine on September 10, 2021, 05:25:33 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 11, 2021, 08:35:20 AM
It still looks to suck. 2005, 2007, and 2018 look to be analogs. Torching probably through the first week of October is likely.I thought we banned you.
Post by: StormNine on September 11, 2021, 10:39:28 AM
I thought we banned you.
I always come back just like the Terminator or like certain STD's.
Post by: snowdog on September 11, 2021, 07:08:04 PM
I thought we banned you.
He had to translate Bruce's posts for 6 months to get back on.
Post by: Curt on September 13, 2021, 04:02:39 PM
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 13, 2021, 04:12:23 PM
The first real cold front for meteorological fall looks to be teed up in about 10 days. Pretty decent agreement amongst ensembles and globals for a potent cool down with a real fall feel. Who says yes?I was about to post the same thing. Looks promising.
Post by: NismoWx on September 13, 2021, 06:13:36 PM
The first real cold front for meteorological fall looks to be teed up in about 10 days. Pretty decent agreement amongst ensembles and globals for a potent cool down with a real fall feel. Who says yes?Just in time for deer season opener!
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Post by: Bruce on September 13, 2021, 07:12:38 PM
The first real cold front for meteorological fall looks to be teed up in about 10 days. Pretty decent agreement amongst ensembles and globals for a potent cool down with a real fall feel. Who says yes?its always about 10 days out … lol
Post by: Curt on September 13, 2021, 07:35:19 PM
its always about 10 days out … lolIt can always be a few days before or later: but climo makes sense with wavelengths now changing rapidly into the equinox. Heck- the February cold spell was pretty well forecast at a tad more than 10 days - and did it ever deliver.
Post by: TNHunter on September 13, 2021, 09:08:02 PM
The first real cold front for meteorological fall looks to be teed up in about 10 days. Pretty decent agreement amongst ensembles and globals for a potent cool down with a real fall feel. Who says yes?
Bring it on! Lines up perfect with bow season opener! What are we talking for highs and lows?
Post by: schneitzeit on September 13, 2021, 11:40:17 PM
The first real cold front for meteorological fall looks to be teed up in about 10 days. Pretty decent agreement amongst ensembles and globals for a potent cool down with a real fall feel. Who says yes?
The Great Plains will be riding a temperature roller coaster. But, mostly ::blowtorch:: over there.
We might see record highs in the Upper Midwest around the Equinox. Big cooldown for the Eastern U.S. looks to be on Sep. 25, or 10 days out as you mentioned in your post.
Post by: Bruce on September 14, 2021, 04:27:42 AM
Bring it on! Lines up perfect with bow season opener! What are we talking for highs and lows?highs upper 60s lows. Lower 40s. If things play out …
Post by: TNHunter on September 14, 2021, 06:34:16 AM
highs upper 60s lows. Lower 40s. If things play out …
That would be awesome
Post by: NismoWx on September 14, 2021, 01:57:54 PM
Bring it on! Lines up perfect with bow season opener! What are we talking for highs and lows?I was wondering when you'd see that
11 days, Brother!
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Post by: TNHunter on September 14, 2021, 04:02:46 PM
I was wondering when you'd see that
11 days, Brother!
Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
I’m more than ready, good luck!
Post by: snowdog on September 15, 2021, 07:30:21 AM
highs upper 60s lows. Lower 40s. If things play out …
(https://c.tenor.com/e3OI7DDT9i0AAAAC/the-rock-dwayne-johnson.gif)
Post by: Thundersnow on September 15, 2021, 08:43:06 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on September 16, 2021, 04:27:46 PM
[attachimg=1]
Post by: Thundersnow on September 16, 2021, 05:29:32 PM
Post by: Bruce on September 17, 2021, 06:40:12 AM
Seeing a run of 70s/50s on some long range forecasts for next week.upper 40 s are actually showing during this time period for overnight low temps….
Post by: schneitzeit on September 17, 2021, 02:44:51 PM
Post by: StormNine on September 17, 2021, 05:19:53 PM
Post by: Nashville_Wx on September 18, 2021, 08:45:36 AM
Post by: Clay on September 18, 2021, 10:55:13 AM
Post by: dwagner88 on September 18, 2021, 01:41:37 PM
Post by: Bruce on September 19, 2021, 08:44:19 AM
Post by: JHart on September 19, 2021, 11:35:51 AM
Post by: mamMATTus on September 19, 2021, 02:11:50 PM
Post by: dwagner88 on September 19, 2021, 05:21:14 PM
I think we're going to end up having a great fall color season because of this soaking rain statewide. The timing is almost perfect.I’ve seen that go both ways. Sometimes the trees need a little stress to show the most color. Sogginess can result in a lot of brown. I’m working on some data for what I hope will lead to an informative post about our rainfall excess since 2016. Spoiler alert: it’s very significant.
Post by: StormNine on September 19, 2021, 06:35:33 PM
I’ve seen that go both ways. Sometimes the trees need a little stress to show the most color. Sogginess can result in a lot of brown. I’m working on some data for what I hope will lead to an informative post about our rainfall excess since 2016. Spoiler alert: it’s very significant.
You need balance. You don't need drought, but you also need those chilly/dry airmasses and lows consistently going into the 30s/40s at times as well.
I thought last year had a pretty good balance and a pretty good year with lots of yellows, oranges, and golds.
Post by: schneitzeit on September 19, 2021, 10:40:53 PM
- TN Valley dries out after midweek, high pressure moves in
- HP system pushes tropical cyclones away from the eastern seaboard
- Very active tropics
Post by: Beth on September 20, 2021, 10:56:16 AM
As we move into late SeptemberIt sure has felt like the active tropicals lately! We are back under a flash flood warning again. It started at 5 a.m. and still coming down. I have never seen it rain this much in August and September. Those are usually our driest months.
- TN Valley dries out after midweek, high pressure moves in
- HP system pushes tropical cyclones away from the eastern seaboard
- Very active tropics
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 20, 2021, 11:33:59 AM
Post by: 82/83 El Nino baby on September 20, 2021, 11:51:59 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on September 20, 2021, 11:55:57 AM
I am new to the Spencer area and everyone we talk to mentions how wet it has been in August and September. We are nearing 6-inches since Saturday and it's pouring again. I am not complaining after years of living in San Jose where the average rainy season is 12 inches per year. The annual rain average in Spencer shows as 55 inches, but I am currently at 23 inches since late June, so I am thinking this year will blow those numbers away. Are Octobers normally pretty wet in middle Tennessee?
First of all, welcome!
In normal years, August, September, and October are the driest months in Tennessee, but not by very much. All months of the year average at least 3" of precipitation with the maximum occurring in the spring at 5-6" per month. Tennessee's climate classification is Cfa (Humid Subtropical) and there is no true dry season here.
Although our changing climate suggests the Tennessee Valley is getting a little rainier, what we've experienced this year is very abnormal.
Post by: Thundersnow on September 20, 2021, 12:36:09 PM
I am new to the Spencer area and everyone we talk to mentions how wet it has been in August and September. We are nearing 6-inches since Saturday and it's pouring again. I am not complaining after years of living in San Jose where the average rainy season is 12 inches per year. The annual rain average in Spencer shows as 55 inches, but I am currently at 23 inches since late June, so I am thinking this year will blow those numbers away. Are Octobers normally pretty wet in middle Tennessee?
Welcome!
If memory serves, October is statistically the driest month of the year in Middle TN.
Post by: Bruce on September 20, 2021, 01:42:41 PM
We have been under a Flash Flood Watch since Friday night. It has not rained a quarter inch all weekend.same here also … barely rained
Post by: Matthew on September 20, 2021, 01:57:36 PM
I am new to the Spencer area and everyone we talk to mentions how wet it has been in August and September. We are nearing 6-inches since Saturday and it's pouring again. I am not complaining after years of living in San Jose where the average rainy season is 12 inches per year. The annual rain average in Spencer shows as 55 inches, but I am currently at 23 inches since late June, so I am thinking this year will blow those numbers away. Are Octobers normally pretty wet in middle Tennessee?
Welcome!
I am wondering if this might be a record wet September.
Post by: Nash_LSU on September 20, 2021, 02:51:04 PM
I am new to the Spencer area
Welcome! We have a place just down the hill from you in Rock Island. Great part of the state.
Post by: dwagner88 on September 20, 2021, 03:23:15 PM
Post by: Matthew on September 20, 2021, 03:54:38 PM
Event total is 4.72 so far. This is the third rain event of >4" since the beginning of August. August was the second wettest ever recorded here. My backyard gauge is at 56.52" year to date. Even if it didn't rain another drop this year we would finish above normal.
I am happy with the last few summers. We have had rain and no oppressive heat. Incredible to think this will most likely be another 60” rain year. I think this is the 3rd in a row?
Post by: 82/83 El Nino baby on September 20, 2021, 04:34:27 PM
Welcome! We have a place just down the hill from you in Rock Island. Great part of the state.
Nice! We have visited the park and ice cream trolly a few times already. A very beautiful place. I will need to venture out there again this winter if they have a release from the lake.
Post by: Thundersnow on September 21, 2021, 09:10:39 AM
Post by: David on September 21, 2021, 09:34:50 AM
Nice! We have visited the park and ice cream trolly a few times already. A very beautiful place. I will need to venture out there again this winter if they have a release from the lake.The gorge is one of the best swimming holes in the state
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on September 21, 2021, 09:53:42 AM
Post by: Thundersnow on September 21, 2021, 10:10:20 AM
Rains in recent days have been largely stationary, or drifting at best.
Post by: TNHunter on September 21, 2021, 10:57:50 AM
Post by: Curt on September 21, 2021, 11:00:20 AM
Post by: schneitzeit on September 21, 2021, 11:27:50 AM
It seems like it's been a while since I've seen precipitation on radar "moving with a purpose" (along the front).
Rains in recent days have been largely stationary, or drifting at best.
Y'all need this dry line so badly. The stationary fronts have been drowning you.
Post by: Bruce on September 21, 2021, 11:29:51 AM
Y'all need this dry line so badly. The stationary fronts have been drowning you.what’s behind it not so dry lol
Post by: Bruce on September 21, 2021, 11:33:02 AM
Wind shift line just came through. Bye summer.don’t think we are quite done with 80s for highs. Just yet ….
Post by: Thundersnow on September 21, 2021, 12:19:57 PM
don’t think we are quite done with 80s for highs. Just yet ….
True- but, hopefully higher dew point 80s will be fewer and farther between. We’ll probably moderate back to 80 next week, but hopefully the next cold front won’t be too far behind, as we get to the first of October.
Post by: Matthew on September 21, 2021, 12:29:50 PM
don’t think we are quite done with 80s for highs. Just yet ….
Debbie downer gif here!
At least 90’s is most likely over and cool nights is nothing to be unhappy about. For me recovering from Covid. These cooler nights means I can get out and walk some to build my strength back up.
Post by: Bruce on September 22, 2021, 08:56:27 AM
Post by: Eric on September 22, 2021, 10:36:22 AM
Nice refreshing morning … north breeze temps upper 50s around this time morning feels so fall like. Just trying get back to some weather talk besides COVID crap . That belongs more In line with politics trash talk ….🤣
It's only political if one makes it political. Science and medicine are cool.
Post by: dwagner88 on September 22, 2021, 12:29:02 PM
Post by: Thundersnow on September 22, 2021, 01:29:48 PM
Post by: 82/83 El Nino baby on September 22, 2021, 04:31:30 PM
The high only hit 64 here on the plateau with a few gusts of 20. Looking forward to the low 40's tomorrow morning.
When does the first frost normally occur?
Post by: Matthew on September 22, 2021, 05:00:39 PM
Today's front put me over 10 inches for September and 25 inches since I put up the weather station in late June. I keep hearing this is the dry season. :)
The high only hit 64 here on the plateau with a few gusts of 20. Looking forward to the low 40's tomorrow morning.
When does the first frost normally occur?
Usually for plateau it’s 2nd week of October give or take a week or 2 either side.
Post by: cgauxknox on September 23, 2021, 06:28:35 AM
It's an amazing first full day of fall here. Woke up this morning to cool, crisp air and clouds blowing past an incredibly bright full moon. Here's hoping we have a wonderful fall season that leads to great holidays and an end to all the madness of the pandemic.
Post by: Eric on September 23, 2021, 07:51:03 AM
Post by: Matthew on September 23, 2021, 09:15:35 AM
This weather kicks monumental @$$.
I agree with this post! Fresh air!
Post by: Matthew on September 23, 2021, 09:17:21 AM
(Attachment Link)
It's an amazing first full day of fall here. Woke up this morning to cool, crisp air and clouds blowing past an incredibly bright full moon. Here's hoping we have a wonderful fall season that leads to great holidays and an end to all the madness of the pandemic.
Beautiful and I look forward to the holidays this year. I had become calloused on the meaning of holidays. Not anymore. I am going to appreciate every moment of them this year!
Post by: Bruce on September 24, 2021, 04:15:59 AM
Post by: Matthew on September 24, 2021, 06:50:22 AM
Models wanting put highs nearing 90 mid next week right before a slight cool down for. Next weekend…. Looks dry
1 day near 86. Then back down to low 80’s.
Post by: Bruce on September 24, 2021, 08:23:30 AM
1 day near 86. Then back down to low 80’s.now if the euro is correct there be 3 days pushing 90…. But humidity won’t be as bad as we seen .
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on September 24, 2021, 09:04:55 AM
Beautiful and I look forward to the holidays this year. I had become calloused on the meaning of holidays. Not anymore. I am going to appreciate every moment of them this year!Absolutely we should live every day to the fullest. It was 43 at my house in Johnson City this Morning. It felt so refreshing
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Post by: TNHunter on September 24, 2021, 09:32:29 AM
Post by: StormNine on September 25, 2021, 02:31:32 PM
now if the euro is correct there be 3 days pushing 90…. But humidity won’t be as bad as we seen .
It appear that we at least have another September that is average and doesn't have wall to wall heat like 2007, 2016, 2018, or 2019.
Post by: Matthew on September 30, 2021, 12:08:58 PM
Post by: Bruce on October 01, 2021, 03:57:22 PM