Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Thundersnow on January 25, 2021, 09:13:08 AM

Title: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Thundersnow on January 25, 2021, 09:13:08 AM
FWIW, marginal storm risk for the day:

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210125_1300_prt.gif)

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210125_1300.html (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210125_1300.html)

Quote
   ...Arklatex to parts of Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
   A near-frontal band of convection, with widely scattered embedded
   thunderstorms, is apparent on the western rim of the outlook area.
   This activity will continue to shift eastward through the day in an
   environment of favorable deep/speed shear but marginal instability,
   offering the threat for isolated severe wind gusts and marginal
   hail.  A tornado cannot be ruled out.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: mamMATTus on January 25, 2021, 01:57:23 PM
Looks a little suspect.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Thundersnow on January 25, 2021, 02:08:36 PM
Well... seems we don't need to exactly sleep on today's risk.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210125_2000_prt.gif)

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210125_2000.html (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210125_2000.html)

Quote
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
   INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening within a
   corridor across northeastern Mississippi and northwestern Alabama
   into middle Tennessee.  This includes a risk for potentially
   damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   Adjustments to the categorical and probabilistic outlook lines were
   made to account for the progression of synoptic and sub-synoptic
   features, and latest trends concerning ongoing destabilization.

   ...Mid South vicinity...
   Low-level moisture return is ongoing on southerly return flow across
   the lower Mississippi into Tennessee Valleys.  This appears to be
   contributing to modest boundary-layer destabilization (including
   CAPE  up to 500-1000 J/kg), which is expected to continue developing
   northeastward as an initial short wave impulse, which has emerged
   from the Southwest, progresses east-northeast of the central Great
   Plains late this afternoon and evening.  As the associated frontal
   wave migrates into the lower Ohio Valley, there appears a window of
   opportunity for vigorous convective development focused along/just
   ahead of the trailing surface trough across Tennessee into
   Mississippi.  This may coincide with a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet
   axis, along which enlarged low-level hodographs may become support
   of supercells structures accompanied by the risk for damaging wind
   gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes.  With the influence of the
   mid/upper forcing on the warm sector expected to be
   glancing/short-lived, it appears this risk will be maximized this
   evening, but at least some severe weather potential may linger as
   remnant convection spreads eastward/southeastward overnight.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Bruce on January 25, 2021, 03:06:40 PM
Well... seems we don't need to exactly sleep on today's risk.

(https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210125_2000_prt.gif)

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210125_2000.html (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210125_2000.html)
thats not surprising that
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Thundersnow on January 25, 2021, 03:15:55 PM
SVR-warned cell coming into Memphis/Shelby Co area.

Risk of quarter sized hail.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Jeremy on January 25, 2021, 03:25:08 PM
This should be fun

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Thundersnow on January 25, 2021, 03:35:03 PM
Latest warning text for Desoto/Shelby cell shows half dollar sized hail.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Thundersnow on January 25, 2021, 03:43:32 PM
Quote
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
339 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Fayette County in western Tennessee...
  Southeastern Shelby County in western Tennessee...

* Until 415 PM CST.

* At 339 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Southeast
  Memphis, or near Germantown, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Bartlett, Collierville, Germantown, Cordova, Memphis, Lakeland,
  Arlington, Eads, Warren, Macon, Oakland, Piperton, Rossville,
  Moscow, Lenow, Fisherville, Elba, Canadaville, Lambert and Kirk.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Thundersnow on January 25, 2021, 03:47:59 PM
A couple of those cells around Memphis look a bit supercellular.

I see maybe some circulation on velocities, but not very tight. I'm assuming this is all fairly elevated.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Icestorm on January 25, 2021, 03:58:39 PM
Maybe a supercell will hit Bruce, I wouldn't want him to have to storm chase.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Bruce on January 25, 2021, 04:10:17 PM
Maybe a supercell will hit Bruce, I wouldn't want him to have to storm chase.
thanks bud bring it . Hopefully we can all endure some action this spring severe wise...
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Icestorm on January 25, 2021, 04:21:30 PM
If I never see another severe weather event it'll be too soon, a tornado killed my mother in 1974 so I never wish for severe storms for anyone.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: schneitzeit on January 25, 2021, 04:32:52 PM
thanks bud bring it . Hopefully we can all endure some action this spring severe wise...

Bruce, how clueless are you when you post? Tennessee had 27 tornado fatalities last year. I'm sure hardly anyone wants severe weather.

It's a fact of life, and it's inescapable, but come on, man. I have to think you are just trolling when you post things like that.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: JayCee on January 25, 2021, 04:50:18 PM
Severe risk will be nil in eastern areas.  Forecast high was 62, but the actual afternoon high was 47.  There may be some elevated instability, but storms will quickly weaken as they head east into our much cooler environment. 
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: cgauxknox on January 25, 2021, 04:55:39 PM
Severe risk will be nil in eastern areas.  Forecast high was 62, but the actual afternoon high was 47.  There may be some elevated instability, but storms will quickly weaken as they head east into our much cooler environment.
I agree there won't be much of a severe threat in East TN but the temps actually seem to be doing what they were forecast to do. I was surprised at temps staying in the 40s this afternoon but when I looked at the hourly forecast we're supposed to warm as the front comes through with our high in the 60s happening at 11:59pm. Who knows if that will verify or not, but it's what's supposed to happen.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: JayCee on January 25, 2021, 04:59:06 PM
I agree there won't be much of a severe threat in East TN but the temps actually seem to be doing what they were forecast to do. I was surprised at temps staying in the 40s this afternoon but when I looked at the hourly forecast we're supposed to warm as the front comes through with our high in the 60s happening at 11:59pm. Who knows if that will verify or not, but it's what's supposed to happen.

I guess it could happen if winds pick up as predicted, and it mixes the warmer air down.  Right now, nary a breeze here. 

Southern valley and Plateau does have a very low end risk of a strong/severe storm.

Quote
3. Low-end risk for a strong/marginally severe storm or two in the
Plateau/southern Tennessee Valley areas during the 10 p.m. - 3 a.m.
timeframe. An isolated, brief tornado and damaging winds are the
main concerns.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: StormNine on January 25, 2021, 05:19:17 PM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0033.html

It mentions scattered storms.  One storm heading into Henderson, TN is showing some rotation.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Beth on January 25, 2021, 05:22:57 PM
If I never see another severe weather event it'll be too soon, a tornado killed my mother in 1974 so I never wish for severe storms for anyone.
I sure can relate and so sorry about your mother! I lost several classmates in North Alabama in in April 1974. Our family was lucky as a Super cell was headed right at us and veered away at the last minute.   I have been through many tornadoes in my life but always got lucky.  I get extremely anxious when severe weather is close by.  I never would wish for severe weather at all.  Give me sunshine or snow. Not Carnage and devastation! :(
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: mamMATTus on January 25, 2021, 05:41:00 PM
I'd be happy with just some good thunder and lightning. It's been far too boring for several months.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Susan on January 25, 2021, 05:55:25 PM
Sever Thunderstorm Warning issued for me!

Storm is going to go right over schneitzeit, then I'll be next.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Matthew on January 25, 2021, 06:07:03 PM
And heading right towards me. 
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: schneitzeit on January 25, 2021, 06:30:29 PM
Good bit of lightning, thunder and heavy rain passed through.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: spanarkle08 on January 25, 2021, 06:32:34 PM
I was a 13 year old kid in that 74 Black Wednesday...completely tore up our house and killed my aunt and uncle...We lived in Franklin Co right by Tim's Ford Dam

I sure can relate and so sorry about your mother! I lost several classmates in North Alabama in in April 1974. Our family was lucky as a Super cell was headed right at us and veered away at the last minute.   I have been through many tornadoes in my life but always got lucky.  I get extremely anxious when severe weather is close by.  I never would wish for severe weather at all.  Give me sunshine or snow. Not Carnage and devastation! :(
[/quote]
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Thundersnow on January 25, 2021, 06:35:35 PM
Intense storm in Nolensville.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: StormNine on January 25, 2021, 06:39:03 PM
The storm near Lobelville moving into Hickman County is starting to rotate.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: JHart on January 25, 2021, 06:44:55 PM
I am seeing lightning and hearing thunder out here in Lascassas for the first time since late August.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: schneitzeit on January 25, 2021, 06:47:22 PM
The storm near Lobelville moving into Hickman County is starting to rotate.

I need to keep an eye on that. The hook would sweep right over my house.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Beth on January 25, 2021, 06:50:21 PM
The storm near Lobelville moving into Hickman County is starting to rotate.
It is going to come right over my house too!  Already had one round of thunder and lightening and very heavy rain.  Just want to keep my power on.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Susan on January 25, 2021, 06:52:55 PM
No electricity for me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Beth on January 25, 2021, 06:54:36 PM
No electricity for me.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Oh no Susan!  Hope it comes back on soon.  Ours goes out all the time.   :-\
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Susan on January 25, 2021, 06:57:49 PM
Thanks, Beth. 5400 homes without power in WilCo per MTEMC


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: cgauxknox on January 25, 2021, 07:05:20 PM
Just walked out to get the mail that ran late tonight and it's warming up with a heavy fog building. Very strange tonight.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: schneitzeit on January 25, 2021, 07:23:46 PM
Pretty intense cell passing through.

I wish the NWS hadn't changed their radar product. With no county lines, I can't tell where the storms are relative to my home. I'm using Accuweather's radar for reference tonight. I think NWS's update is a disservice to the public.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: mamMATTus on January 25, 2021, 07:24:49 PM
Wow. Actually dropped a Tornado Watch. Definitely did not see that coming.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Susan on January 25, 2021, 07:37:03 PM
Great work from MTEMC.  Lights back on.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Eric on January 25, 2021, 08:16:54 PM
Pretty intense cell passing through.

I wish the NWS hadn't changed their radar product. With no county lines, I can't tell where the storms are relative to my home. I'm using Accuweather's radar for reference tonight. I think NWS's update is a disservice to the public.

I'd think about splurging for Radarscope.  Available for both Android and iOS.  9.95 one time purchase.  It's much better than any web-based platform.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: dwagner88 on January 25, 2021, 08:17:52 PM
The cell over Polk county is marked 1.25
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Flash on January 25, 2021, 08:19:10 PM
I'd think about splurging for Radarscope.  Available for both Android and iOS.  9.95 one time purchase.  It's much better than any web-based platform.

I've really enjoyed Radarscope. Worth the buy...and a good start for amateur chasers.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: JayCee on January 25, 2021, 08:21:59 PM
Pretty intense cell passing through.

I wish the NWS hadn't changed their radar product. With no county lines, I can't tell where the storms are relative to my home. I'm using Accuweather's radar for reference tonight. I think NWS's update is a disservice to the public.

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/tn/little-rock/ohx (https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/tn/little-rock/ohx)

This is what I use for the time being.  Similar to the old NWS product. 
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Bruce on January 25, 2021, 09:00:17 PM
I've really enjoyed Radarscope. Worth the buy...and a good start for amateur chasers.
that is exactly what i use. love it
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: dwagner88 on January 26, 2021, 07:02:47 AM
Sounds like Trussville got hit last night. Seems like that area just north of Birmingham is a hot spot for tornadoes.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: Bruce on January 26, 2021, 07:05:38 AM
Sounds like Trussville got hit last night. Seems like that area just north of Birmingham is a hot spot for tornadoes.
yeah i agree... so it begins . buckle up ... going be a bumpy ride
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: schneitzeit on January 26, 2021, 08:22:16 AM
One dead, 30 injured in Fultondale, Alabama. Tornado width was 1/4 mile wide.

The death was a young adult who was crushed beneath the rubble in his home. Source: https://www.al.com/news/2021/01/storm-damage-reported-in-fultondale-as-jefferson-county-tornado-watch-continues.html (https://www.al.com/news/2021/01/storm-damage-reported-in-fultondale-as-jefferson-county-tornado-watch-continues.html)
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: gcbama on January 26, 2021, 03:23:39 PM
One dead, 30 injured in Fultondale, Alabama. Tornado width was 1/4 mile wide.

The death was a young adult who was crushed beneath the rubble in his home. Source: https://www.al.com/news/2021/01/storm-damage-reported-in-fultondale-as-jefferson-county-tornado-watch-continues.html (https://www.al.com/news/2021/01/storm-damage-reported-in-fultondale-as-jefferson-county-tornado-watch-continues.html)

Yet again another southern nocturnal strong to violent tornado in a populated area when it was NOT expected to be able to get one that strong, very similar to our march storm last year.
Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: schneitzeit on January 26, 2021, 03:37:36 PM
Yet again another southern nocturnal strong to violent tornado in a populated area when it was NOT expected to be able to get one that strong, very similar to our march storm last year.

Couldn't have said that better myself.

Nocturnal? Check.
Wintertime? Check.
Unexpected? Check.
Significant tornado (EF3 or higher)? Check.
Deadly? Sadly, check.

All the boxes are checked for a rogue storm. @justinmundie, are you there? How aware of this pending disaster were the folks in Birmingham?

Title: Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
Post by: gcbama on January 26, 2021, 05:02:39 PM
Couldn't have said that better myself.

Nocturnal? Check.
Wintertime? Check.
Unexpected? Check.
Significant tornado (EF3 or higher)? Check.
Deadly? Sadly, check.

All the boxes are checked for a rogue storm. @justinmundie, are you there? How aware of this pending disaster were the folks in Birmingham?

Even spann seemed a bit caught off guard when he saw the debris signature i watched his coverage ( he is just the best at that ) the only real difference was the fact it was not as long track....but my gosh this is twice in 10 months that a Major tornado happened when it really never showed signs of being capable, kind of scary to think how little we really know , i am sure people went to bed thinking it was just another garden variety storm line like we always get