Tennessee Weather Forum
Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Tropical Spin Zone => Topic started by: cgauxknox on April 08, 2022, 11:50:00 AM
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It may be April, but Colorado State has released an above normal prediction for 2022: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
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Many others are forecasting an above average season as well. We already have warmer than normal sea surface temps and are in a La Nina pattern like last year.
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An interesting report from NOAA: https://apnews.com/article/climate-storms-science-air-pollution-united-states-a629da4d72fa94d75f6668acd5a04bf3
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The GFS would like to skip early season tropical storms and go directly to eastern GOM hurricanes. It’s been showing up for a couple of days now.
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fairly common for the GFS to show canes in the gulf this far out. Always needs to be watched but I have seen this show before
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We've now got Invest 90L in the Gulf, just south of the FL panhandle/AL. NOAA has it with less than a 40% chance of development, but it is the first organized system this season.
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First good rain since the start of April! Over 2" in the bucket from 90L as it swings overhead.
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It looks like we have a good chance of Hurricane Agatha crossing into the Gulf and turning into a TD or TS Alex by the end of the week. Right now there seems to be too much shear to develop into much of a threat, so it will mostly be a rain-maker. It is something to track with the first day or hurricane season tomorrow.
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We should see our first tropical storm of the season tomorrow and FL has TS watches coming out.
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We should see our first tropical storm of the season tomorrow and FL has TS watches coming out.
I am glad it is heading up the East coast. Leaving tomorrow night to head to Clearwater Beach. So ready to have a relaxing time! 😎😎😎
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I am glad it is heading up the East coast. Leaving tomorrow night to head to Clearwater Beach. So ready to have a relaxing time! 😎😎😎
You should be free and clear for a great trip - enjoy!
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TS Fiona may be worth watching. The track right now looks like it could either swing out to sea or make a landfall on the southeast coast. It's way too early to even give odds on a landfall, but it will likely be a strengthening storm next week.
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TS Fiona may be worth watching. The track right now looks like it could either swing out to sea or make a landfall on the southeast coast. It's way too early to even give odds on a landfall, but it will likely be a strengthening storm next week.
she stays a fish …. Ots
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Looks like a Cat 3 lurking in the central gulf in about 9 days. Could be an active October coming up.
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Looks like a Cat 3 lurking in the central gulf in about 9 days. Could be an active October coming up.
I hope you're wrong, but that system definitely looks to charge into the Gulf and strengthen. Many of the forecasters have been saying for months that this would be a back-loaded season. I continue to pull for drought-busting rain makers that won't carry a lot of damage. Depending on intensity and track hurricanes this season could be a good thing for many.
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I hope you're wrong, but that system definitely looks to charge into the Gulf and strengthen. Many of the forecasters have been saying for months that this would be a back-loaded season. I continue to pull for drought-busting rain makers that won't carry a lot of damage. Depending on intensity and track hurricanes this season could be a good thing for many.
Ridging over the Northern Plains tends to be one of the patterns that support a Gulf of Mexico landfalling system.
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Right before fall break. Yikes.
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After a slow start to the season, it's ramping up. The second half of the season may well be more active.
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It looks like we're going to have a late addition to the storm list this week, with Hurricane Nicole likely forming before running up the southeast coadt.
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Less than 48 hours out and the globals are finally giving us some decent rain! The western extent will have a very sharp cutoff, but it looks like most of the eastern half of the state could cash in. As modeled, it could be the first 2"+ rain event here since July.