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« Last post by bugalou on Yesterday at 09:22:05 PM »
I am digging the weird pattern keep things cool/less humid for this time of the year, however lack of rain is getting concerning being in weak northerly flow aloft.
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« Last post by bugalou on Yesterday at 09:19:12 PM »
Theoretically, if this were to happen today, what would be the outcome and what makes you think it would be the worst natural disaster in US history?
One aspect not mentioned is if bridges across the MS river stay standing. The i40 bridge was seismically retrofited and others to the north and south were built with seismicity in mind. They would likely survive a single event, but I am not sure if they would withstand what happened in in 1811/1812 even with the extra bits. The old bridge in Memphis may not survive a single event. These bridges going down would be devastating for the entire country and cause shortages of goods from coast to coast, especially if more than one failed. It would also likely lead to a lot problems getting people help locally. The good news is an 1811/12 event will more than likely not happen in our lifetime, but a ~6.0 is very possible, upwards of 40% by 2050. The "big" events like shown above seem to happen about ever ~400 years based on current research. That said, new faults that are related to the overall process going on here have been found in recent times (~past 3 decades) under eastern AR around Marked Tree, as well as in south eastern AR. All of these may produce earthquake series all on their own with very little historic dating of events. There is proof though the fault in SE AR has produced at least one major quake though in as there are big sand blows shown in soil studies that are too large to have been caused by quakes from the New Madrid fault.
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« Last post by schneitzeit on Yesterday at 01:32:51 PM »
Thunderstorms will bless some of us tomorrow afternoon and evening. A weak low will develop over the Cumberland Plateau and low-level moisture will be sufficient enough for convection initiation after noon. Storms will once again take a more east-to-west motion as the steering height winds will be easterly or northeasterly. Isolated storms will develop first before likely organizing into multicells due to weak vertical shear. Severe risk is marginal with strong winds being the principal risk.
A positively-tilted trough will strengthen over the Northeastern U.S. over the next few days, eventually stretching down to the Ohio River Valley. The GFS and Euro are in agreement on dry weather next week as we will be on the convergent side of the trough axis. The best chances for rain will result from afternoon convection, but those chances are slim. Thankfully, the globals indicate a pattern change will occur next weekend as a trough develops over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and moves east, and statewide rainfall is plausible sometime between next Saturday-Tuesday.
The difference between the 2m temperatures on the GFS and the Euro next week is interesting. The GFS paints normal to BN temperature anomalies across TN while the Euro mostly keeps us AN. I believe the Euro is doing a better job of simulating warm, dry continental air advection from the northwest into TN, so I am leaning toward its solution. I expect the western half of the state will remain AN while the best chances for BN temperatures (and those lovely mornings in the 50s) will be under the trough in East TN.
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« Last post by TNHunter on Yesterday at 06:49:41 AM »
Not seeing much in the way of rain the next 25 days. Time to start the rain dances.
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« Last post by Bruce on June 02, 2023, 02:36:54 PM »
On day 2 of the season we have the season's first named storm, TS Arlene. Let's hope for a calm season without damage!
hope for a quiet season, this place is already dull enough lol… but look for a quiet season I think .
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« Last post by cgauxknox on June 02, 2023, 01:09:39 PM »
On day 2 of the season we have the season's first named storm, TS Arlene. Let's hope for a calm season without damage!
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« Last post by schneitzeit on June 01, 2023, 01:43:04 PM »
Good to hear from you, gc!
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« Last post by gcbama on June 01, 2023, 11:04:32 AM »
hey all! Just wanted to jump in and say hello  Since that long track tornado came through my area in the early spring, not much weather to chat about . Hope all have a great summer...I will hop in if we get some summer mcs/derecho systems .
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« Last post by joemomma on June 01, 2023, 09:00:02 AM »
Starting to dry out some....we had a quick shower at the house yesterday but we need some more in the next day or two or I'm going to be watering the new grass.
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« Last post by NismoWx on May 31, 2023, 07:27:36 PM »
I'll do it. June. 
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