We do have a consistent showing of at least some subtle troughing in about Day 9-10 on all 3 major model ensemble runs (Euro, Canadian, and GFS) as the ridge center starts to move back towards the Desert Southwest.

West TN will still probably be at the edge of ridging, but it could be way out of drought issues for a period of time for the Plateau and East TN.     

Even with the rain we have had this heat is drying it up fast.  My yard has turned green but already today shows stress again.  Mowing the yard was oppressive.  This summer is relentless so far.  If stays this hot & dry till August we will have some serious fire dangers going into fall. Especially with the lower humidity & less precip months.  My brothers house in Lebanon has had no rain.  His yard has cracks that look like earthquake cracks.

The north half of Davidson County really hit the jackpot in the last week. Some got as much as 3” of rainfall, after almost a month with just a trace. Even some areas south of I-40 got a decent downpour yesterday. I was getting worried about grass fires, even though fireworks are technically illegal here.

We got nothin' yesterday or the day before.  It rained once during the month of June IMBY, and that shower just before Father's Day amounted to about 1/3 inch.  The past five weeks have been incredibly dry for the Lascassas Valley.

Hopefully this awful pattern will relent a little by mid month.

Will need to put East TN on MCS alert by Wednesday through Saturday.  Outside of those areas, it will be hotter than a firework as Middle and especially West TN try and do their best Persian Gulf impersonation this week.