Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Monthly Discussions and General Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on June 30, 2022, 07:07:44 PM

Title: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on June 30, 2022, 07:07:44 PM
We are down one month of death ridge with at least two perhaps three more to go.   

The only difference at least through the first 1/3rd of the month is that we get our daily popcorn thunderstorms back. 

Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on June 30, 2022, 10:17:09 PM
The first few days of the month have the potential to provide some drought relief for some of us, particularly here on the plateau and in the mountains. A good ol' MCS isn't out of the question over the 4th of July period. Frankly I'm rooting against that for selfish reasons (it's a busy time with a lot of outdoor events over the next few days) but it doesn't seem at all out of the question that many locations in this part of the state could pick up as much rain from Saturday-Tuesday as they picked up all of June.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on June 30, 2022, 10:36:30 PM
I do like at least East TN to stay in a relatively wet pattern (or at least daytime storm popup pattern) even in the extended especially as the ridging gradually shifts westward.   

The Euro is Ridges R US in the extended as it looks to merge the Sonora Death Ridge with some Western Canadian ridging and perhaps a bit of Bermuda Ridge to throw 594 to 600dm heights from West TN to California and a ridge axis that goes up into Greenland just yikes!!!. 

Still, even that pattern probably supports at least daytime heating storm activity and perhaps an MCS for areas in East TN in the extended as well as the shorter term.       
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 01, 2022, 02:33:34 PM
The EPS and GPS are fairly wet through the first 1/3rd of the month particularly in the Cumberland Plateau region and points east. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 01, 2022, 06:53:17 PM
The bootheel and a strip to the south of me got a good rain last weekend. Not enough to settle the dust here since 6-10. Farmers need a rain bad. Zero wheat beans have come up.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 02, 2022, 04:08:00 PM
The bootheel and a strip to the south of me got a good rain last weekend. Not enough to settle the dust here since 6-10. Farmers need a rain bad. Zero wheat beans have come up.
we dot start getting some good rains, farmers around here going take big hit on the corn crop this year... :(
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 02, 2022, 08:14:27 PM
Today was definitely classic "hit or miss" in Western KY and NW/NW Middle TN.  A few clusters of corn fields and lucky souls got a half-inch to even very locally 2+ inches of rain while some people (in some cases just 4-5 miles away) didn't even see a raindrop fall from the sky.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: collinsk on July 02, 2022, 08:46:47 PM
HUGE "gullywasher" in Estill Springs/Tims Ford area!! I bet 3 inches or more.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: 82/83 El Nino baby on July 03, 2022, 06:14:52 AM
Storms were missing me all day. Then finally a storm devoped above my neighborhood and we ended up with 2 inches in 30 minutes.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 03, 2022, 04:20:03 PM
 Summer time storms love to do little dances around your house. Sometimes they will bless you with enough rain to wet ground but to see and hear the storm for hours with .10-.20 to show for it really is depressing!
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Charles L. on July 03, 2022, 05:20:38 PM
Summer time storms love to do little dances around your house. Sometimes they will bless you with enough rain to wet ground but to see and hear the storm for hours with .10-.20 to show for it really is depressing!

We are getting a little shower right now, but unless it pulses back up it looks like between the two days we will come out of this rainfall event with less than 1/4” total accumulation. Sigh.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 03, 2022, 05:23:26 PM
It rained hard in West Nashville this afternoon for long enough to cause ponding on the roads. We also had a soaker last night before midnight. Been getting lucky. My yard is green again.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Clay on July 03, 2022, 09:09:00 PM
Brentwood and South Nashville have cashed in. My folks in Franklin haven’t gotten anything.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 04, 2022, 09:00:28 AM
Will need to put East TN on MCS alert by Wednesday through Saturday.  Outside of those areas, it will be hotter than a firework as Middle and especially West TN try and do their best Persian Gulf impersonation this week.   

Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 04, 2022, 10:13:47 AM
Me and the kids shot few fireworks in back yard last night , developed a small grass fire pretty quick , so ones that have been missing these random showers be careful out there please .
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: JHart on July 04, 2022, 11:04:11 AM
We got nothin' yesterday or the day before.  It rained once during the month of June IMBY, and that shower just before Father's Day amounted to about 1/3 inch.  The past five weeks have been incredibly dry for the Lascassas Valley.

Hopefully this awful pattern will relent a little by mid month.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 04, 2022, 11:30:50 AM
All we’ve seen at our house are brief “evaposhowers” over the last couple of days which leave briefly spotted streets which only serve to amp up the surface humidity. Oh for one of those gully washers some have seen.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: ChrisPC on July 04, 2022, 11:33:35 AM
The north half of Davidson County really hit the jackpot in the last week. Some got as much as 3” of rainfall, after almost a month with just a trace. Even some areas south of I-40 got a decent downpour yesterday. I was getting worried about grass fires, even though fireworks are technically illegal here.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Nash_LSU on July 04, 2022, 11:57:05 AM
I lost the rain lottery all week. Just had a quick one pop up right on the house. Only 1/4", but I'll take it.

(https://i.imgur.com/2XFxgkb.jpg)
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Matthew on July 04, 2022, 03:54:34 PM
Even with the rain we have had this heat is drying it up fast.  My yard has turned green but already today shows stress again.  Mowing the yard was oppressive.  This summer is relentless so far.  If stays this hot & dry till August we will have some serious fire dangers going into fall. Especially with the lower humidity & less precip months.  My brothers house in Lebanon has had no rain.  His yard has cracks that look like earthquake cracks.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 04, 2022, 04:11:11 PM
We haven't had significant rainfall in my place since Mid-June.  We get some light showers here and there but nothing to amount to anything.  We also haven't mowed since then either.   

Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 04, 2022, 04:13:59 PM
We do have a consistent showing of at least some subtle troughing in about Day 9-10 on all 3 major model ensemble runs (Euro, Canadian, and GFS) as the ridge center starts to move back towards the Desert Southwest.

West TN will still probably be at the edge of ridging, but it could be way out of drought issues for a period of time for the Plateau and East TN.     
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 05, 2022, 07:34:32 AM
82/82 Heat Index 95 at 7 am.   ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Coach B on July 05, 2022, 07:49:46 AM
82/82 Heat Index 95 at 7 am.   ::blowtorch::

I was still at 80 degrees at 10:00 pm last night. I know that's commonplace in the more urban areas, but it doesn't happen all that much out in the country around here. Sure sign of a dog days heat wave.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 05, 2022, 07:57:15 AM
I was still at 80 degrees at 10:00 pm last night. I know that's commonplace in the more urban areas, but it doesn't happen all that much out in the country around here. Sure sign of a dog days heat wave.
except dog days term fits more early
Mid august to beginning of September
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 05, 2022, 09:08:27 AM
The Dog Days are from around the 4th of July to Mid August.  Its definition comes from space and not necessarily the weather although it does correspond to the hottest/most humid part of the year for most areas (including us since our peak is typically Late July/Early August).  It is called that due to Sirius the head of the Canis Major constallation rising into the night sky. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Charles L. on July 05, 2022, 12:26:55 PM
I’m not cut out for this kind of weather. Anyone else get irrationally irritable when it gets this hot? 😂
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 05, 2022, 01:30:36 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 05, 2022, 02:27:02 PM
We are getting some cloudcover which has knocked the temperature down a few degrees but the humidity is horrendous.  Probably one of the worst feeling days since 2012.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 05, 2022, 02:31:05 PM
101 at KMEM with a feels like 112. At least there is some hope on the horizon later this weekend- albeit relative.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 05, 2022, 02:43:58 PM
Folks lurking or viewing from East TN need to be aware of some MCS/Damaging Wind potential tomorrow and Thursday. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: DocB on July 05, 2022, 02:48:32 PM
I’m not cut out for this kind of weather. Anyone else get irrationally irritable when it gets this hot? 😂
Indeed. This was yet another reason I moved from S. Florida 2+ decades ago. Nothing worse than needing a shower after you just showered.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 05, 2022, 03:00:39 PM
[attachimg=1]

Would you look at this by the CPC. 

This is actually fairly plausible if we get our ridge to build a bit more westward and connect with the Western Canadian ridging. You would set up a solid +PNA pattern that would support at least occasional trough play in the Eastern USA.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: wmp600 on July 05, 2022, 03:13:58 PM
I’m not cut out for this kind of weather. Anyone else get irrationally irritable when it gets this hot? 😂
I have always heard crime spikes in hot weather, especially violent crime. I think it brings out the worst in a lot of people.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 05, 2022, 03:14:17 PM
Finally some needed rain at my location
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: ChrisPC on July 05, 2022, 05:02:18 PM
Indeed. This was yet another reason I moved from S. Florida 2+ decades ago. Nothing worse than needing a shower after you just showered.

I grew up on the Gulf Coast, and I totally understand. You don’t ever really dry off when you towel off!
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: cgauxknox on July 05, 2022, 07:47:25 PM
Some pretty decent storms in Knoxville and the county tonight. We'll take every drop we can get.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 05, 2022, 07:58:29 PM
If you are along and west of a Lafayette to Lynchburg TN line then tomorrow through Friday is going to suck.   

Moisture pooling along a stalled out front, still dry ground for most, humidity, and a strong ridge means some absolute misery.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: cgauxknox on July 05, 2022, 08:09:35 PM
The sun setting behind storm clouds with the moon rising made for a pretty cool scene tonight.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Clay on July 05, 2022, 09:15:18 PM
If you are along and west of a Lafayette to Lynchburg TN line then tomorrow through Friday is going to suck.   

Moisture pooling along a stalled out front, still dry ground for most, humidity, and a strong ridge means some absolute misery.
I'd argue this is the hottest week thus far with the humidity. BNA hit 93/36 the week we broke 100F.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 05, 2022, 10:08:00 PM
The sun setting behind storm clouds with the moon rising made for a pretty cool scene tonight.

(Attachment Link)

Superb photo.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 06, 2022, 12:52:43 AM
Superb photo.

Reminds me of…
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/EPZKB4dy73ivC4WyD2/giphy.gif)

Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 06, 2022, 06:52:27 AM
Excessive Heat Warning expanded east to Sumner county down to Lincoln for today through Friday. Good days to choose to stay indoors if you're able to. 
Quote
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
231 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

TNZ005>008-023>028-056>062-075-093>095-062015-
/O.UPG.KOHX.HT.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220709T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KOHX.EH.W.0001.220706T0731Z-220709T0500Z/
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Houston-Humphreys-Dickson-
Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Bedford-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield,
Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Erin, Tennessee Ridge,
Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City,
Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Linden,
Lobelville, Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood,
Columbia, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne,
Shelbyville, Clifton, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, and Pulaski
231 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values
  reaching 110 to 115 each day.

* WHERE...Much of Middle Tennessee, generally along and west of
  I-65.

* WHEN...Until midnight CDT Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly
  increase the potential for heat related illnesses,
  particularly for those working or participating in outdoor
  activities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 06, 2022, 07:59:40 AM
Typical for my luck yesterday- a storm with heavy rainfall formed to my west, and then one to my east- both produced downpours. But, they pulsed up and then dissipated… producing little more than sprinkles for me. It was even thundering. 😜
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 06, 2022, 08:26:14 AM
Today, tomorrow, and Friday (depending on when storms form) will probably rival the late July/early August 2011 heat wave in intensity.

Already nearing 100F heat index at Ft. Campbell as of 8:15am 

Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 06, 2022, 12:57:31 PM
Sprinkled here from a tiny shower just now hard enough to wet the road with thin layer of wetness not puddle wet. Not even 1 minute later the sun appears again and the sprinkle stopped and the road was bone dry could not even tell it rained. The dirt places never was wet so they looked the same during and after anyways. People would think I was telling a lie if I said hey it just rained!
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 06, 2022, 02:18:10 PM
These kind of days it is just better off to stay outside soaking wet in sweat than going in and out it seems.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 06, 2022, 02:26:59 PM
These kind of days it is just better off to stay outside soaking wet in sweat than going in and out it seems.
I absolutely love this weather …😎
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 06, 2022, 02:31:20 PM
The transitory nature of these pop-up cells is interesting. A cell can pulse to a high reflectivity downpour or even hail-core look and then dissipate to nothing in minutes. I'm hearing thunder now. This cell on radar popped up probably not two miles to my east, and it's already fizzled.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 06, 2022, 02:35:46 PM
At last! A cell suddenly decided to fire right on top of me- raining hard, at least for the moment.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: memphishogfan on July 06, 2022, 03:13:43 PM
Talking to one of my farming buddies today, things are fixing to get real bad in NEA if we don't get some cooler nights and rain soon.  Lots of cotton already blooming way ahead of schedule and dry ground is going to be lost within the next week or so.   

Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: dwagner88 on July 06, 2022, 03:37:04 PM
Boiling hot today. We might crack 100. The predicted high was only 94.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 06, 2022, 03:54:01 PM
The pool feels like bath water even late at night ….
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Charles L. on July 06, 2022, 05:54:34 PM
We still have not had a drop of rain this week. Have heard thunder the past two days but not one drop.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: JHart on July 06, 2022, 06:25:32 PM
At last! A cell suddenly decided to fire right on top of me- raining hard, at least for the moment.
We had a brief shower early this afternoon, the first in about three weeks.  It only amounted to a tenth of an inch, but at least it interrupted the horrible heat that was building.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 06, 2022, 07:53:06 PM
I am hearing that Kentucky will be approaching 2012 corn production levels if things don't turn around fast.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Brad on July 06, 2022, 11:35:25 PM
Typical for my luck yesterday- a storm with heavy rainfall formed to my west, and then one to my east- both produced downpours. But, they pulsed up and then dissipated… producing little more than sprinkles for me. It was even thundering.
I’m in Crieve Hall, not far from you and have experienced the same thing. Maybe I’m just hyper vigilant and playing the victim but I’ve watched these cells pop up and dissipate to my north, south, east and west several days in a row now.

Always hear thunder and get excited when I check the radar and see them heading right towards me, only to see them go poof! Only to reappear to my west.

Suppose that’s why they call them summer pop up storms..
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 06, 2022, 11:42:53 PM
Yeah same here its thundered from storms here like 5 different times today. Its thundering right now even.. lol Barely glazed at all today only from 1 of them.

Edit. Its 525am now and its thundering again! storm developed after it passed me... It looks so tall too with the sun hitting it but not the ground.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 07, 2022, 07:07:55 AM
For Middle and East TN (and maybe even as far west as Paris to Lexington), there is a legit chance for some storm clusters today.  Many areas will reach at least 105 heat index values before that occurs but today-Saturday at least feature storm chances that are more organized in nature versus the hit or miss pop up stuff. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: joemomma on July 07, 2022, 07:36:39 AM
Finally had a nice storm roll through at my house (just south of Sparta) this morning.  Like many, we've had storms all around and rumbles of thunder but no actual rain.  The ground was cracked in many places.  The thunder actually woke me up.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 07, 2022, 08:21:05 AM
Still at 83 drops of rain since June 7th.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 07, 2022, 11:13:48 AM
The oppressive weather continues: currently 90/73 at BNA. Dewpoints are in the high 70s across much of the Southeast. Permitting pop-ups this afternoon and evening, Middle and West TN will easily reach the mid to upper 90s this afternoon, and cities like Clarksville, Jackson, and Memphis may rise into the triple digits. Clarksville actually reached 101 yesterday.

Middle and East TN will receive the lion's share of thunderstorms today through the weekend. Models suggest pop-ups this afternoon across Middle TN that may develop into a short-lived multicell cluster.

Relief is on the way, mainly for Middle and East TN. This weekend will introduce a LLJ over our region along with a frontal boundary at the surface. There's a system to our northwest today with a stationary front across the Central and Southern Plains that's moving east, so we might actually get to enjoy a day with highs in the 80s and ample precipitation across a wider portion of the state. Lately, it's been a lottery for rainfall. Some places are at near-normal precipitation amounts while others have come up with zero.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 07, 2022, 11:37:50 AM
Both GFS/Euro Ensembles show the ridge moving further west and allowing for things to go a bit more seasonal/normal over our area starting next Wed-Thurs.   

Instead of 98-104 with dewpoints well into the 70s, we may be dealing with 87-92 degree temperatures (probably a little bit cooler in East TN) with dewpoints in the 60s.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: memphishogfan on July 07, 2022, 11:55:34 AM
Up here in NEA right now

96/109
74 DP

Just freaking brutal.  Maybe its my old age, but didn't it used to take DP's being much lower to get into triple digits? 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 07, 2022, 12:09:32 PM
Up here in NEA right now

96/109
74 DP

Just freaking brutal.  Maybe its my old age, but didn't it used to take DP's being much lower to get into triple digits?

Was the criteria for the Heat Index calculation revised in recent years? I think that was the case with wind chill factor... not sure about heat index though.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 07, 2022, 01:09:03 PM
Finally- southeast side of Nashville is getting some good rainfall today.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 07, 2022, 01:33:03 PM
Woo wee... bona fide storm... even a SVR warning now issued for my area.  ::drowning:: ::rain::

The lightning be poppin, and the rain is roaring.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Charles L. on July 07, 2022, 02:10:00 PM
At this rate we are finally going to get over 1” of rainfall for the first time in what feels like a month!
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 07, 2022, 02:50:00 PM
There's some broad rotation on the Sumner County severe-warned storm
Title: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 07, 2022, 03:06:28 PM
KMEM 101 with a heat index of 114. Take the wheel! Memphis is up to 9 days (not consecutive) of days over 100. Friday and Saturday will be up to 11. That’s rivaling some really hot summers albeit not close to 1980.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 07, 2022, 03:44:41 PM
KMEM 101 with a heat index of 114. Take the wheel! Memphis is up to 9 days (not consecutive) of days over 100. Friday and Saturday will be up to 11. That’s rivaling some really hot summers albeit not close to 1980.
more like 1977 summer which was rather hot also especially mid july n later
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 07, 2022, 04:27:46 PM
The only saving grace here has been the nearly daily late-afternoon outflow boundary passage that has knocked temperatures down a bit once it occurred. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 07, 2022, 08:51:15 PM
Missed by the rain here today but it did thunder several times. I wonder what would speed up the drought lower humidity and mid 80's or near 100 with high humidity. I guess the higher temps would as heat probably increases the evaporation rate faster then then higher humidity would matter? Obviously for like an active fire low humidity matters more probably but in general drought making higher temps make things worse faster. Anyone know for sure?
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 07, 2022, 08:51:36 PM
Lost a big white oak this evening. Several other big oaks are down around me, too. This is the second day in a row that severe storms have brought down huge trees.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 08, 2022, 06:35:40 AM
What is this rain you guys speak of?  Haven’t seen any of that here since Memorial weekend time frame.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 08, 2022, 06:55:22 AM
If you hate heat and you live along or west of a Clarksville to Savannah TN line then I advise you not to look at the long-range GFS.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: dwagner88 on July 08, 2022, 11:04:55 AM
What is this rain you guys speak of?  Haven’t seen any of that here since Memorial weekend time frame.
Same. I've heard thunder almost every day this week. Barely had enough rain to wet the driveway.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: memphishogfan on July 08, 2022, 12:51:02 PM
Folks got spoiled those last few summers.  LZK averages 8 days over 100 per year.   They are sitting at 5 right now i believe.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 08, 2022, 01:21:02 PM
Little to zero rain in the forecast outside of getting lucky with a pop up here in West TN. I know things are getting mighty dry around here
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 08, 2022, 03:54:34 PM
The 12z GFS has some completely off the wall temps around July 20 pushing 115 in western parts. There is a 120 in central MO. I'm going to revisit this post in 10 days to see if there is any credence.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 08, 2022, 05:15:00 PM
The 12z GFS has some completely off the wall temps around July 20 pushing 115 in western parts. There is a 120 in central MO. I'm going to revisit this post in 10 days to see if there is any credence.

That is at least a triple-merged ridge 597-600dm centered over Missouri (Sonora, Bermuda, Western Canadian).  That would be historically strong and if that were to verify along with likely still dry ground conditions then that would legit be one of the strongest/hottest ridges on record. 

Thankfully as of now, the GFS main run appears to be on an island compared to Ensembles on GFS, Euro, and Canadian and it is 12 days out. 

Edit:  It seems like a tropical system/hurricane in the East Pacific is what is causing that pattern to form like that plus troughing on the west coast.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 08, 2022, 05:25:28 PM
Just and hopefully only for the fun of it, Martin/Dyersburg area has a high of 113-115F with a low of 85-88F on the July 20th-21st period according to 2m temperatures on the GFS.   

Paducah, KY only gets down to 90F one night in that timeframe
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 08, 2022, 06:14:57 PM
Please let the HRRR be correct for tonight.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 08, 2022, 07:07:44 PM
Locally the top analog for the rest of this month is going to be 2012, with 1980 and 2011 being secondary ones.

Next week (minus Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of a cold front) looks to be manageable and then at least the western half of the state if not everyone (depending on strength and position of the ridge) is going to be back in the full-on frying pan.   

We hope that like in 2011 and 2012 we get a pattern change around the midway point in August, either by tropical help and/or the ending of the Monsoon and the emergence of a more +PNA type pattern

Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: JHart on July 08, 2022, 07:42:10 PM
It poured 1/4 mile from me a few minutes ago while not a drop fell on my yard.  Nature is just trolling me now.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: gcbama on July 08, 2022, 07:49:30 PM
Please let the HRRR be correct for tonight.

How long since you had rain dyer?.....here in hohenwald we went about three weeks, and then this week we got much needed downpours! Probably a total of 30 minutes heavy downpour and an hour of moderate heavy rain...prolly around 2 inches which took care of everything here
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 08, 2022, 09:27:47 PM
How long since you had rain dyer?.....here in hohenwald we went about three weeks, and then this week we got much needed downpours! Probably a total of 30 minutes heavy downpour and an hour of moderate heavy rain...prolly around 2 inches which took care of everything here

In my area of Dyer County we have not had over a 10th of an inch of rain since about memorial weekend.

Burn bans have started in NEA.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Clay on July 08, 2022, 09:37:51 PM
In my area of Dyer County we have not had over a 10th of an inch of rain since about memorial weekend.

Burn bans have started in NEA.
Here's an except from the latest Drought Monitor summary for the south region.

Quote
The rapid onset of drought continues to affect parts of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valley with a continued increase in coverage of short-term moderate drought (D1). Western Tennessee and northern Mississippi were especially dry the past two weeks with many areas receiving less than 0.25 inches of rainfall. This dryness was combined with above-normal temperatures. Therefore, severe drought (D2) was added to parts of northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. 30-day SPEI, EDDI, and soil moisture indicators were used as guidelines in these degradations. Likewise, D0-D1 was also expanded across northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and Arkansas. The number of Arkansas counties, designated with burn bans, continues to increase. In the 6 week period since May 25, Jonesboro, Arkansas has recorded 1.17" of precipitation, or about 25% of normal. This is the driest such period since 1952.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 09, 2022, 06:34:14 AM
We missed our best shot at rain last night here in Dyer County. Looks like counties just east of here scored pretty good.  We need rain something awful and there is essentially none in sight within 15 days. Lots of triple digit highs coming though.  For farmers who can’t irrigate, it is going to be one bad season unfortunately.  If August-October are dry as well, then watch out.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 09, 2022, 07:16:27 AM
We missed our best shot at rain last night here in Dyer County. Looks like counties just east of here scored pretty good.  We need rain something awful and there is essentially none in sight within 15 days. Lots of triple digit highs coming though.  For farmers who can’t irrigate, it is going to be one bad season unfortunately.  If August-October are dry as well, then watch out.
Yeah this basically sum's up who won and lost the past 3 days with rain. Near 2 inch's here. Ground soaked it all up.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 09, 2022, 07:32:10 AM
Yeah this basically sum's up who won and lost the past 3 days with rain. Near 2 inch's here. Ground soaked it all up.
yeah and if you don’t like this heat things in long range are doom n gloom .plenty triple digit heat on most models
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: JHart on July 09, 2022, 10:39:35 AM
The early morning storms blew away my rain gauge (which I still have not found), but I would guess we picked up about half an inch based on the intensity and duration of the rain, which was sadly all too brief.  Given the tenth of an inch I know we received on Wednesday, that estimate lines up well with my location on Cody's map.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 09, 2022, 11:34:16 AM
Not a drop at my house. Union City area did really well. 3 inches last night.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Nash_LSU on July 09, 2022, 12:14:45 PM
I've received 1.73" in the past 24 hours. That's more than I received in the previous 40 days.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: dwagner88 on July 09, 2022, 01:16:41 PM
It rained about 3/4 of an inch last night but every small stream and ditch is still totally dry. The ground soaked it all up like a sponge.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 09, 2022, 01:18:06 PM
Less than 0.2 here. That won’t be helpful at all and assume it all has evaporated by now. This dry ground is breeding these over 100 temps.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: JKT1987 on July 09, 2022, 01:52:57 PM
Given how many times KMEM has already hit 100 this year (103 max on two occasions)... without any additional significant rain a 2007/2012 death ridge in next month as seems possible based on GFS/EC ensembles almost assures IMO that KMEM will set an all time high under such conditions. As Curt said, the overnight rain was not enough. 0.22" at the airport is just not enough.

Interestingly enough, the temp at the airport was still 87! after 4 AM before the rain began. Without the rain an all time highest low temperature (currently 84) may well have been set today.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 09, 2022, 05:21:11 PM
Given how many times KMEM has already hit 100 this year (103 max on two occasions)... without any additional significant rain a 2007/2012 death ridge in next month as seems possible based on GFS/EC ensembles almost assures IMO that KMEM will set an all time high under such conditions. As Curt said, the overnight rain was not enough. 0.22" at the airport is just not enough.

Interestingly enough, the temp at the airport was still 87! after 4 AM before the rain began. Without the rain an all time highest low temperature (currently 84) may well have been set today.
as ole Johnny cash would say , I fell into a burning ring of 🔥…
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: mempho on July 09, 2022, 06:31:07 PM
Given how many times KMEM has already hit 100 this year (103 max on two occasions)... without any additional significant rain a 2007/2012 death ridge in next month as seems possible based on GFS/EC ensembles almost assures IMO that KMEM will set an all time high under such conditions. As Curt said, the overnight rain was not enough. 0.22" at the airport is just not enough.

Interestingly enough, the temp at the airport was still 87! after 4 AM before the rain began. Without the rain an all time highest low temperature (currently 84) may well have been set today.

Quite unfortunately, I not only believe you but I think KMEM gets 110 this year now that the rain failed us.  I’d very much like for both of us to be dead wrong this time.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 09, 2022, 07:21:38 PM
Quite unfortunately, I not only believe you but I think KMEM gets 110 this year now that the rain failed us.  I’d very much like for both of us to be dead wrong this time.
one good way of looking at it is , these temps sure beat a 33 degree rain any day week …
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 09, 2022, 08:12:10 PM
one good way of looking at it is , these temps sure beat a 33 degree rain any day week …
False.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: wmp600 on July 10, 2022, 06:12:24 AM
one good way of looking at it is , these temps sure beat a 33 degree rain any day week …
I would take 33 & rain any day over this, especially with the nearly total lack of rainfall for many. But it would be interesting to have 33 degrees in July.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 10, 2022, 07:39:03 AM
The heat in the Plains is going to be unbearable the next couple weeks, extending from the Front Range to our friends in West Tennessee. I think Memphis will set some more daily records this month. The GFS is an absolute blowtorch.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 10, 2022, 07:44:16 AM
Snippet of the GFS 2m temp simulation for early this week. The ridge over the West and the Plains is going to gradually move to the east, though the warmest temperature anomalies will be most pronounced west of the 90 degree meridian and probably some pockets of the low-lying Southeast later on.


(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022071006/gfs_T2m_us_8.png)
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 10, 2022, 08:03:49 AM
Sure, temps at or over 100 plus a drought is so much better. I would take 33 & rain any day over this, especially with the nearly total lack of rainfall for many. But it would be interesting to have 33 degrees in July.
that 33 degree rain hurts down to the bone …
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: wmp600 on July 10, 2022, 08:16:44 AM
that 33 degree rain hurts down to the bone …
When I was younger I did not mind the heat. But now it really gets to me where the cold does not. I dont like extended periods of either cold or hot.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 10, 2022, 10:48:24 AM
It is 64 and rainy in Galax, VA. I wish I can bottle this airmass and bring it back.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 10, 2022, 10:55:08 AM
I like a little bit of hot weather, but this summer has brutal so far. The older I get, the less I find that I like hot weather (just as the older I get, the less I find I like cold weather). Summers in New England and winters in South Florida sound pretty good for whenever I become a billionaire.

One thing I will say, though: I'll take the hot temps over rain of any kind. I despise rainy weather. Just enough to keep the grass green and the crops growing, and preferably at night or early in the morning.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 10, 2022, 11:08:23 AM
I don't understand how you tolerate living in Tennessee if you hate rainy weather. TN is easily among the rainiest states in the U.S.  ::rain::
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 10, 2022, 05:26:41 PM
Wow, you know it’s been hot when 92 degrees and a 10-15mph wind feels like fall to you!
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Matthew on July 10, 2022, 08:12:53 PM
This has been a brutal summer so far.  Being at the beach last week the Gulf literally feels like bath water.  I don’t remember it being so warm. A resident told me they fear a storm feeding off those waters.   The pools down there are hot tubs right now.  I also noticed many corn crops that were total losses.  Hardly 2-3 feet & brown. It looks like my home cashed in on the rains while I was gone but the heat coming will dry it out quickly. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 10, 2022, 08:21:28 PM
I don't understand how you tolerate living in Tennessee if you hate rainy weather. TN is easily among the rainiest states in the U.S.  ::rain::

Tolerating it and wishing for it are two different things. But the same could also be said for heat.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 11, 2022, 04:07:23 PM
Looks like the GFS has backed off the stupid extreme heat the last few runs. Still bad hot but not stupid hot. We need rain here in a very bad way.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: mempho on July 12, 2022, 05:52:47 AM
Looks like the GFS has backed off the stupid extreme heat the last few runs. Still bad hot but not stupid hot. We need rain here in a very bad way.

Prior to this week, the 0z would have been the worst heat run I’ve ever seen for us.

Starting on day 10 thru the end of the run, things absolutely go blast furnace and the trend appears to be getting worse when the model output ends (using KNQA but KMEM is very similar)… that’s what the + signs are for below:

7+ days consecutive of 100+
7+ days of 101+
6+ days of 102+
5+ days of 103+
5+ days of 104+
4+ days of 105+

Personally speaking…I’m going to monitor the situation and-if it happens to this degree/severity, I am probably leaving town to get away from this. Just getting away from all the asphalt in the city alone really helps out.  Get to a place that cools off some at night.  The urban heat island on these situations in Memphis is ridiculous.  The only good news is that there are a lot of sub 80 lows in there and lower dewpoints BUT the morning low can only hold sub 80 for so long in that duration and severity of heat…and it appears that threshold also gets busted before the run is out.

The run ends on the evening of the 27th.  At that time, the current temperature is 102F; a welcome yet somewhat inadequate relief from the afternoon high of 105F, a day when men walked thru the scorched city and pondered eternity- specifically, the eternal damnation of their forefathers.  On this side of life, at the very least, there was hope- hope that tomorrow would be a better day.  Even the slimmest of hopes is enough to keep a man alive- at least until all of the “fight” of his youth has been burned up by the scorching fires of life.  Indeed, it’s going to get worse, much worse, before it gets better.  The city’s current scorched hellscape is but a prelude to something much larger, much more intense. Somewhere out there, beyond the impenetrable haze, a man knows the angel of death is waiting, waiting - a vulture ready to dive down and pounce on the valley floor- a vulture from which even the surrender to death itself can offer no reprieve.  He watches and waits as almost feels at home as the great river- like the Nile of the Egyptians long ago- reflects an orb of almost blinding orange glow.  For that brief fiery moment each day, the sunset glimmers off the surface of the great river as it seems to pay its own homage to the Styx below.  He presides over the festivities- the fattened calves are ready for slaughter.  They’ve been deceived into the corrals that lead to the executioner’s chamber.  This truth escapes them- they refuse to accept reality as it is and fill their minds with ridiculous fables.  The prophets who warn of doom are subjected to ridicule even though every single one of them has a faint flicker in their soul that just knows how correct they are.   The angel watches and waits for tonight they die.  They always die at night.  A man will fight the day but give up in the night. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 12, 2022, 07:00:13 AM
Prior to this week, the 0z would have been the worst heat run I’ve ever seen for us.

Starting on day 10 thru the end of the run, things absolutely go blast furnace and the trend appears to be getting worse when the model output ends (using KNQA but KMEM is very similar)… that’s what the + signs are for below:

7+ days consecutive of 100+
7+ days of 101+
6+ days of 102+
5+ days of 103+
5+ days of 104+
4+ days of 105+

Personally speaking…I’m going to monitor the situation and-if it happens to this degree/severity, I am probably leaving town to get away from this. Just getting away from all the asphalt in the city alone really helps out.  Get to a place that cools off some at night.  The urban heat island on these situations in Memphis is ridiculous.  The only good news is that there are a lot of sub 80 lows in there and lower dewpoints BUT the morning low can only hold sub 80 for so long in that duration and severity of heat…and it appears that threshold also gets busted before the run is out.

The run ends on the evening of the 27th.  At that time, the current temperature is 102F; a welcome yet somewhat inadequate relief from the afternoon high of 105F, a day when men walked thru the scorched city and pondered eternity- specifically, the eternal damnation of their forefathers.  On this side of life, at the very least, there was hope- hope that tomorrow would be a better day.  Even the slimmest of hopes is enough to keep a man alive- at least until all of the “fight” of his youth has been burned up by the scorching fires of life.  Indeed, it’s going to get worse, much worse, before it gets better.  The city’s current scorched hellscape is but a prelude to something much larger, much more intense. Somewhere out there, beyond the impenetrable haze, a man knows the angel of death is waiting, waiting - a vulture ready to dive down and pounce on the valley floor- a vulture from which even the surrender to death itself can offer no reprieve.  He watches and waits as almost feels at home as the great river- like the Nile of the Egyptians long ago- reflects an orb of almost blinding orange glow.  For that brief fiery moment each day, the sunset glimmers off the surface of the great river as it seems to pay its own homage to the Styx below.  He presides over the festivities- the fattened calves are ready for slaughter.  They’ve been deceived into the corrals that lead to the executioner’s chamber.  This truth escapes them- they refuse to accept reality as it is and fill their minds with ridiculous fables.  The prophets who warn of doom are subjected to ridicule even though every single one of them has a faint flicker in their soul that just knows how correct they are.   The angel watches and waits for tonight they die.  They always die at night.  A man will fight the day but give up in the night.
long range euro is a complete furnace ….
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 12, 2022, 08:45:51 AM
Maybe another shot of beneficial rains for some late today and tonight. I hope as many cash in on it as possible.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 12, 2022, 05:43:10 PM
Got a decent downpour here but was hoping for more then that. Better then most I guess. Honestly looks like the clouds are backtracking and trying to reform another storm but guess we will see..
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 12, 2022, 06:24:04 PM
35 days and counting with no rain in this oven. I thought maybe we might get a shower tonight with earlier model runs but it doesn’t look like it.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 12, 2022, 06:47:20 PM
35 days and counting with no rain in this oven. I thought maybe we might get a shower tonight with earlier model runs but it doesn’t look like it.

The northern plateau was probably the driest place in the state, relative to normal, at the start of this thing, but now the difference between West TN vs. East TN is really growing. We're at over 4" of rain for the first 12 days of July.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 12, 2022, 07:44:50 PM
I wonder if we see a bit of a flooding threat across southeastern middle TN tonight.

The boundary and associated storms are moving southeast at a snails pace and we are seeing some backbuilding
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 12, 2022, 07:52:38 PM
I wonder if we see a bit of a flooding threat across southeastern middle TN tonight.

The boundary and associated storms are moving southeast at a snails pace and we are seeing some backbuilding
Even north of me the clouds look to be building some. I mean a lot of the news computer generation models was showing several rounds though tomorrow morning so I guess we will see.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Matthew on July 12, 2022, 08:07:58 PM
We have been slammed off 840/Rutherford/Williamson line.  Definitely is back building now.  It’s easy to see with the cloud motions.
Title: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 13, 2022, 07:21:41 AM
Looks like a beak in the heat for a few days, quick return , then another longer break. We could be through the worst if the CFS2 is correct. It does briefly being the death ridge back in august but it transient.

KMEM now has 12 days over 100. It’s a far cry from 1980’s 30 +, but gaining ground.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Coach B on July 13, 2022, 07:49:10 AM
KMEM now has 12 days over 100. It’s a far cry from 1980’s 30 +, but gaining ground.

 ::wow::  I know it has been pretty hot, but I had no idea it had been that hot on the the west side! Amazing what a difference a couple hundred miles makes. I've been up to 98 once and 97 two or three times at the house.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: joemomma on July 13, 2022, 09:48:32 AM
We got a nice rain last night with the storms that blew through.  It looked really nasty for a bit with some pretty intense winds, but the storm itself wasn't that bad.  Had a nice soaking rain.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 13, 2022, 10:14:52 AM
Ole Tennessee is very different end to end.  Flash flooding on the East side and not a drop of significant rain in about 7 weeks on the West side in places.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 13, 2022, 01:15:13 PM
Chapel Hill reported 4 inch diameter hail yesterday evening.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 13, 2022, 01:16:48 PM
Ole Tennessee is very different end to end.  Flash flooding on the East side and not a drop of significant rain in about 7 weeks on the West side in places.

July 2016 was quite similar except in reverse with East TN and the plateau being in extreme to exceptional drought and Stewart County receiving over 20 inches of rain that month.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 13, 2022, 09:55:58 PM
July 2016 was quite similar except in reverse with East TN and the plateau being in extreme to exceptional drought and Stewart County receiving over 20 inches of rain that month.

That’s right I remember that
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 14, 2022, 07:58:07 AM
TWC’s August through October temp outlook shows basically the entire south and central US above normal
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 14, 2022, 02:57:56 PM
105 degree temp for highs look attainable for someone In the mid south later let next week.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 14, 2022, 04:47:09 PM
I’m sure it will change but looks like a decent chance of a little rain Monday. In other news after 2 1/2 years of dodging it I have Covid and feel like dammit.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 14, 2022, 06:32:01 PM
I’m sure it will change but looks like a decent chance of a little rain Monday. In other news after 2 1/2 years of dodging it I have Covid and feel like dammit.
yeah this strain doesn’t appear be to bad, thank goodness … just like tough summer time cold to me , my whole crew got it so I got it last week . Hope get better soon dyer
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: gcbama on July 14, 2022, 08:34:29 PM
I’m sure it will change but looks like a decent chance of a little rain Monday. In other news after 2 1/2 years of dodging it I have Covid and feel like dammit.

Hope you get to feeling better soon dyer! I had the original covid and then I also had omicron....original was a whole different animal than omicron, of course you never know how anybody is going to react to anything but it does seem each variant gets a bit weaker so hope that rings true for you friend!!!
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Matthew on July 14, 2022, 10:19:18 PM
I’m sure it will change but looks like a decent chance of a little rain Monday. In other news after 2 1/2 years of dodging it I have Covid and feel like dammit.

I hope you feel better soon Dyer.  Hopefully yours is like a mild cold or flu.  Just keep tabs on your 02% with the finger pulse ox you can get at Walgreens.  If you start to feel SOB.  Something my Pulmonologist had me get wo a prescription is Mullein & NAC from vitamin store.  Both have definitely helped me with my lungs & drainage issues from allergies. Keep us updated!
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Matthew on July 14, 2022, 10:24:08 PM
yeah this strain doesn’t appear be to bad, thank goodness … just like tough summer time cold to me , my whole crew got it so I got it last week . Hope get better soon dyer

For most it’s not bad but for some it is.  My friend got it for the 3rd time & it just about killed him.  He has that horrendous cough now.  He was vaccinated & boosted.  It’s just a luck of draw with Covid. My mother in law got it last week while we were all in FL.  She felt like 💩 for a few days & congestion. It started with the worse headache she has ever had.  That seems to be one of the main symptoms.  My father in law has just a cold but he tested negative.  I’d bet he has Covid though just a much lesser case. Hopefully it keeps mutating to a common cold for ALL! 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 15, 2022, 10:25:35 AM
GFS has marked July 22-28 as perhaps the hottest period on record in the western half of the state. It has temps around 115 in the Memphis area during this period. the record high for Tennessee is 113 at Perryville. Also, far western TN has now reached severe drought level- and may progress to extreme depending in QPF on Monday. I think that will also dictate just how hot it will get during the key period for next weekend. Its going to get hot with the HP making a run at the area. Just how hot will be the story.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 15, 2022, 10:51:44 AM
GFS has marked July 22-28 as perhaps the hottest period on record in the western half of the state. It has temps around 115 in the Memphis area during this period. the record high for Tennessee is 113 at Perryville. Also, far western TN has now reached severe drought level- and may progress to extreme depending in QPF on Monday. I think that will also dictate just how hot it will get during the key period for next weekend. Its going to get hot with the HP making a run at the area. Just how hot will be the story.

This was the hottest period for 2011, one of the hottest in 1980, and the 2nd hottest in 2012.  All indicators point to late July-early August as a time that could feature extreme to perhaps historic heat. 

Mid-August becomes a bit of a question mark.  A lot of analog data suggests a cool down beginning around that time, but that could be a tall order with the combination of increasing drought and any northward bound East Pacific cyclones that could reinforce a weakness in the desert SW and move/pump up the ridge over MO/ARK/West KY and TN area.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 15, 2022, 11:55:08 AM
39 days with no rain in this crazy heat. Around here if corn is not irrigated there are no ears on the stalk. It’s too late for corn. Still time to save beans.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 15, 2022, 12:08:16 PM
This was the hottest period for 2011, one of the hottest in 1980, and the 2nd hottest in 2012.  All indicators point to late July-early August as a time that could feature extreme to perhaps historic heat. 

Mid-August becomes a bit of a question mark.  A lot of analog data suggests a cool down beginning around that time, but that could be a tall order with the combination of increasing drought and any northward bound East Pacific cyclones that could reinforce a weakness in the desert SW and move/pump up the ridge over MO/ARK/West KY and TN area.
toss the analogs this summer … this summer going be one kind afraid
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 15, 2022, 12:26:18 PM
The Southern, Central, and High Plains are poised to set some daily high temperature records. I can't discount the probability of all-time highs for some places.

For Tennessee, expect it to get gradually hotter as you move west. West TN may set some daily high records this month and in August if this pattern continues.

On the other side of the pond, London is expected to reach the upper 90s F next week. That's pretty hot. An unbearable heat wave will move east from France and Spain across Germany and into Eastern Europe.  ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch::

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022071512/gfs_T2m_eu_14.png)
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 15, 2022, 12:31:20 PM
Some GFS models actually link the Saharan Ridge (that will impact Europe) with the Bermuda/Sonora Ridge and the Canadian ridge and torch everyone from the Mountain West to Europe.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 15, 2022, 12:47:42 PM
[attachimg=1]

The ridge off the coast of the west coast of Canada would typically be a good thing for us but in this case it links up with a classic Sonora/Bermuda ridge complex.  That said complex is pumped up by an area of lower heights off the coast of California (think Dec 2015 or the general winter 2019-2020 pattern). Even though the -EPO look is typically a good thing it is all for naught as lower heights or systems from the East Pacific keep sliding underneath like a teenager trying to sneak out of their parent's house.  Which awakens the ridge over our area which is like an angry parent telling their kid to go to their room.  If the kids want to be sneaky then the angry ridge has to lay the law down and therefore everyone feels the heat.   

Edit:  By the way, there is a pretty strong jet along the US/Canada border that would likely support a major derecho threat from North Dakota through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area if that pattern pictured above pans out.     
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 15, 2022, 05:07:29 PM
MLGW  in Memphis reporting least couple thousand customers without power,  not good time be without air conditioning…
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 15, 2022, 06:08:35 PM
The 12z GFS is the hottest forecast for the Memphis area (and Im sure most of the west half of TN) I've ever seen. It would lead to an all time record high and (high) low at Memphis. Its days and days of 106-109 for highs. Euro is "cooler"" but is now spitting out 105-106 for a couple days next weekend which is up from its previous runs. If those numbers are credible, this may the second or third hottest summer period over this way. Its got a long way to go to beat 1980, but its gaining ground. The lows above 80 degrees which consistently happen day after day are what really causes serious heat wave issues when houses with poor ventilation cant cool overnight. This could be fairly serious if correct.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: dwagner88 on July 15, 2022, 07:03:43 PM
The Southern, Central, and High Plains are poised to set some daily high temperature records. I can't discount the probability of all-time highs for some places.

For Tennessee, expect it to get gradually hotter as you move west. West TN may set some daily high records this month and in August if this pattern continues.

On the other side of the pond, London is expected to reach the upper 90s F next week. That's pretty hot. An unbearable heat wave will move east from France and Spain across Germany and into Eastern Europe.  ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch::

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022071512/gfs_T2m_eu_14.png)
This is pretty terrible for an area where 95% of homes have no AC. Even those that do will have undersized systems for that level of heat. At least it is only two days. Hopefully the toll won't be too horrible. The last big heat wave in 2003 killed something like 30k people. The all time record high for the UK may be broken. Paris won't hit the 108 degrees that it saw in 2019, but will only be a few degrees shy of it.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 15, 2022, 08:23:02 PM
The MISCO power grid (which controls parts of ARK/MS/Western KY/SE MO) would be in trouble and could face failure based on the projected forecast.  TVA probably will even get some stress with the possible threat for scattered rolling blackouts.   

The GFS shows overnight lows in the upper 80s/lower 90s across NE/IA/MO and upper 70s to mid 80s for West and Middle TN.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 16, 2022, 03:05:56 PM
Looks like models r taking most rain north of midsouth now late tomorrow n Monday …  could get serious with this drought developing . My ground is literally cracking all over
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 16, 2022, 03:37:59 PM
I’d put good money on it that Dyer County doesn’t get over 1/10th of an inch. Seen this before. Dry ground just keeps the rain away. It’ll be November before we see much rain I’m afraid.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 16, 2022, 08:26:54 PM
It is pretty darn important that we get some widespread rainfall, especially in West and West Middle TN if not then those 104, 105, 106, or even 109-110 model temperature outputs will probably verify later on in the month. 

While we can and have received temperatures in the 100s with a wet ground (see 2010 and 2011), it becomes quite a bit easier with a drier ground/surface airmass as dry surfaces heat up faster.  It could be the difference between 98-102 range and the 105-109F range.  Plus the agricultural and ecological impacts.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 16, 2022, 08:37:03 PM
It is pretty darn important that we get some widespread rainfall, especially in West and West Middle TN if not then those 104, 105, 106, or even 109-110 model temperature outputs will probably verify later on in the month. 

While we can and have received temperatures in the 100s with a wet ground (see 2010 and 2011), it becomes quite a bit easier with a drier ground/surface airmass as dry surfaces heat up faster.  It could be the difference between 98-102 range and the 105-109F range.  Plus the agricultural and ecological impacts.
just not seeing widespread event be honest …. What rain if any will just absorb it up like a dry sponge ….
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 16, 2022, 09:06:10 PM
It should also be noted that the largely merged Sonora/Bermuda/Sahara ridge pattern looks to put Atlantic Hurricane Season to bed probably until the end of August.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 17, 2022, 10:53:56 AM
Beneficial rains for Far NW TN with essentially Dyersburg being the line between nothing and 1-2 inches of rain so far this morning.  Lake and Obion counties have largely cashed in.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 17, 2022, 11:13:56 AM
If the ensemble mean is pushing 105F (like it is from Louisville KY to Clarksville TN to Savannah TN line and points west) then you got a major heat problem on the way.  The EURO ensemble mean isn't as aggressive but is still in the upper 90s, meaning that 100+ for several days is very attainable if not likely. With the merged property of the range, I also expect East TN up into the Northeast (especially the I-95 cities) to occasionally get involved with temperatures that approach or exceed 100F as well.   

If the dewpoints mix enough or more than expected then I think someone west of that line mentioned above is going to pop up to 110F sometime in that July 22nd-August 15th range.  While I think the July 22-August 15th range is the peak of heat wave action, with the strength of the ridge still intact (although likely moved a bit further west and/or broken into just Sonora and Bermuda components instead of the triple merger we have now) and drought impacts I wouldn't expect real relief till sometime in September. 

The somewhat good news is that next fall/winter is looking more neutral (maybe even a slight chance at a weak Nino at the tail end, but if that does form I don't expect any major impacts from it).  Essentially ENSO will be a non-factor next fall and winter.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 17, 2022, 11:30:24 AM
Beneficial rains for Far NW TN with essentially Dyersburg being the line between nothing and 1-2 inches of rain so far this morning.  Lake and Obion counties have largely cashed in.

Yep I am just south of the line, we got maybe 1/10 so far but hopefully tonight we’ll pick up more.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 17, 2022, 01:00:23 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220717/e0d562a0f8887fe10d63b274c91e7085.jpg)

Thanks to MWN blog this is a comparison of July now so far vs 1980 at Memphis Intl.  Lots of similar things here.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: InMemphis on July 17, 2022, 02:01:22 PM
Memphis has hit 100 again today. So much for today being somewhat cooler.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: JKT1987 on July 17, 2022, 02:04:52 PM
[attachimg=1]

Up to #4
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 17, 2022, 02:57:53 PM
I’m not liking the radar trend … we haven’t had drop in the bucket yet today … as we loose peak heating sunshine today , tonite s chances will only drop lower …
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 17, 2022, 03:30:57 PM
Memphis has a good shot at going up to #3 by the end of the week.  It is going to be a close call for #1.  It depends on whether we can get the mega ridge to move far enough west by mid-August to at least keep the triple digits away.  In an extreme situation, I could see Memphis finish the summer with around 40 days of triple-digit heat.   

Paducah's record appears to be 20 which was set in 2012.  So far they have only recorded 1 day of 100+, but in an extreme situation, I could see them rattle off around 15 days from late July to Mid-August and maybe a day here and there into the 1st or 2nd week of September and flirt with that record.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 17, 2022, 03:53:13 PM
I should note that the afternoon models have come in a bit further southwest with the ridging after next weekend, which could potentially keep the worst of the worst west of our region.  It will still be hot but not record-setting if that verifies. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Matthew on July 17, 2022, 04:36:26 PM
Hopefully tonight something develops.  The radar trends just suck.  No other word to be used if nothing develops.  Nashville May not be hitting triple digits but it’s rattling off plenty of mid 90’s days.  Good grief saying a hot summer is an understatement.  Crops are loses across the board for much of America. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 17, 2022, 05:30:18 PM
I’m not liking the radar trend … we haven’t had drop in the bucket yet today … as we loose peak heating sunshine today , tonite s chances will only drop lower …
Best chance is overnight. Around midnight.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 17, 2022, 06:28:07 PM
I’m sure it will after tonight but DPs will have to go down to reach 100. DP has been 80 here all day.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: cbrentv318 on July 17, 2022, 06:38:29 PM
Best chance is overnight. Around midnight.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220717/07f7eef84c19fc0a8193cef30f98d610.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 17, 2022, 07:33:19 PM
That MCS is the best shot that West TN (north of I-40) has had in a long time.  It does look like unless you get some further south development that it may miss Memphis Metro altogether.  It might build southeast enough to get Jackson and over into Parsons.   

A weak low pressure system tracking across Southern IL/Western KY should allow for this complex to maintain itself even as the night wears on.   

Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 18, 2022, 03:20:24 AM
Several more opportunities to break 100 degrees ahead. I would wager the majority of the daytime highs in Memphis during the next 2 weeks will be above 100. Nashville will probably break 100 degrees again too- the last time was on June 22nd when KBNA reported 101.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: mempho on July 18, 2022, 05:51:43 AM
I have to ask…is there something wrong with the GFS?  The 0z run had daytime highs of 100+ for 13 days in a row, including two days of 110.  In looking at the MWS forecast for the next week, the NWS projects 4 days of 7 to be 100+.  Only one of those days (today) is a day that both the GFS and the NWS agree will be sub 100.  There are two remaining days which the NWS has being under 100.  It appears that NWS is undercutting the GFS consistently by about 5 degrees. 

So, is the GFS biased towards heat?
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 18, 2022, 06:24:36 AM
I have to ask…is there something wrong with the GFS?  The 0z run had daytime highs of 100+ for 13 days in a row, including two days of 110.  In looking at the MWS forecast for the next week, the NWS projects 4 days of 7 to be 100+.  Only one of those days (today) is a day that both the GFS and the NWS agree will be sub 100.  There are two remaining days which the NWS has being under 100.  It appears that NWS is undercutting the GFS consistently by about 5 degrees. 

So, is the GFS biased towards heat?

That's a great question. In the case of the Southern Plains, the Euro shows a similar solution this week with temps exceeding 110 F, and the sfc temperatures are similar to those modeled by the GFS in our area as well. It does appear the GFS is a tick hotter with lower dewpoints compared with the Euro. Moisture seems to be main difference between the two. The NWS may be leaning in the direction of slightly higher dewpoints and lower daily maximum temps than the GFS.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 18, 2022, 06:28:01 AM
Scored 0.75 in of rain last night. It’s no drought buster but it was desperately needed.  As far as the models go, it seems they have been bias towards the heat a little much all summer for our area. Def been hot but no 103+ like models have suggested many times.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 18, 2022, 07:03:43 AM
Memphis Int’l got an inch and a half albeit heavy rain is more runoff on this kind of soil. It should keep 100’s at bay for a couple of days.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 18, 2022, 07:15:52 AM
Today will likely end the 28-day streak of consecutive >= 90 degree days at BNA.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 18, 2022, 07:42:30 AM
Memphis Int’l got an inch and a half albeit heavy rain is more runoff on this kind of soil. It should keep 100’s at bay for a couple of days.

Seems models missed things. Most the heavy stuff went south
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 18, 2022, 07:47:42 AM
.5 at my house. Just about everyone north and east of here got a good rain.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 18, 2022, 08:13:41 AM
I have to ask…is there something wrong with the GFS?  The 0z run had daytime highs of 100+ for 13 days in a row, including two days of 110.  In looking at the MWS forecast for the next week, the NWS projects 4 days of 7 to be 100+.  Only one of those days (today) is a day that both the GFS and the NWS agree will be sub 100.  There are two remaining days which the NWS has being under 100.  It appears that NWS is undercutting the GFS consistently by about 5 degrees. 

So, is the GFS biased towards heat?

Sometimes both models can overmix the dewpoints leading to a somewhat hotter solution.  Remember a few weeks ago many of these models were showing 115-116 in GA/SC because they had dewpoints in the 40s.  The reality was still about 102-105F though but nothing above 110F as the dewpoints never mixed down that much.

I don't quite think we will see 110+, but I do think being close enough to the core of a mega ridge will grant us several 100-105F.  As I said earlier there will be some days where even East TN up into the Northeastern USA gets in the action as well.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 18, 2022, 10:25:58 AM
So nice to be in the 70's at 10am instead of the 90's.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 18, 2022, 11:31:15 AM
Starting Wednesday most west parts middle Tennessee hit 100 or above for least solid week looks appears ….
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 18, 2022, 05:17:34 PM
From MEG

Quote
Just looking at a raw GFS ensemble
guidance the forecasted highs for KMEM will be at or above 100
degrees through August 2nd.

If that's the case, that would put KMEM at 29 days over 100 for this summer period...just a couple shy of the record number in 1980.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 18, 2022, 05:44:44 PM
From MEG

If that's the case, that would put KMEM at 29 days over 100 for this summer period...just a couple shy of the record number in 1980.

The Euro and Canadian (the Canadian's solution is way overdone) make an attempt at a cold front passage in the middle of next week.  The GFS hangs that front up from about Evansville to far NE Tennessee and sends it back up as a warm front.  The GFS situation would also be a worst-case scenario for Western KY and West/Middle TN as it would allow for hotter and probably even more humid air to pool out ahead of it next week.  That scenario would actually give us a shot at seeing an isolated 110F+ reading in the areas mentioned above.   

I am seriously starting to wonder if Memphis ends up with somewhere between 40-45 days of 100+ weather for 2022.   Even if things weaken a bit and shift more westward in late August, you still will likely have a day or two here and there where you will flirt with or exceed 100F till the second or third week of September.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: InMemphis on July 18, 2022, 06:57:31 PM
There's virtually no evidence that it rained last night and this morning. I don't recall a summer quite like this.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: gcbama on July 18, 2022, 07:01:55 PM
I guess i had not realized how hot it has been just to our west....thats unreal...It has been hot here in west middle near the Tn river as well but I only hit 100's twice this year so far....as per usual middle is usually just to the east of the extremes , not saying it hasn't been bad here in middle , but we are not approaching anywhere near the numbers that meg area is
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: JKT1987 on July 18, 2022, 07:51:59 PM
The benchmark heat waves of 1980/2000/2007 had a couple of things this summer has yet to achieve...but the key word here is yet as it might be tested in the weeks to come.

1) Extreme high temps. While it has been 100 many times this summer...Memphis has yet to record a high temp of 104 or higher. 103 has occurred twice. The heat waves above had a few to several days where temps approached or exceeded 105. 108 max in 1980...107 in 2000 and 106 in 2007. 2010 and 2011 actually featured 104+ temps at Memphis but these were within brief though intense heat waves. 2012 only maxed out at 103 too. It certainly feels possible that a 104-105 type max is well within reach for Memphis over the next two weeks. Whether we challenge even higher remains to be seen, but it can't be ruled out. It will likely depend on soil moisture and the latent evapotranspiration from this morning's rainfall.

2) Extended period of 100+ temps. Memphis has had 5 days consecutive of 100 in this summer so far which is in the top 10 but falls well below the three benchmarks above. 1980 featured 15 consecutive 100 days, 2000 had 10, and 2007 had 9. The next two weeks have the 2000 and 2007 marks certainly attainable it would seem, with 1980 not impossible (Thursday could be a fly in the ointment with a weak frontal passage)

3) Nighttime lows at or above 80. While there have been several mornings where it hasn't fallen below 80 at Memphis, so far a lot of mornings have seen temperatures comfortably come just below that. If you go with a threshold of 78...Memphis so far comes in at #20. The 1980 benchmark is an insane 30 (15 consecutive) days where it did not fall below 80 at Memphis. This seems very very hard to top. 2022 has so far had 6 total. #2 is only 5 days consecutive (1935). There were 4 days consecutive at or above 80 in 2007, and I would not rule out either of these being challenged. 2000 doesn't factor into this one at all...the extreme drought of that year keep minimum temps below 80 most nights of the extreme heat.

What is making this heat wave rival closer to 1980 vs 2000/2007 is the humidity/heat index factor. 2000 and 2007's drought allowed dewpoints to mix out and kept afternoon heat index values from challenging 110 much. In fact 2000 saw no heat advisories even issued as heat index values often were below actual temps. 2007 did see a period of heat advisories and heat warnings but it was only during the hottest stretches and 110+ was marginal. The amount of days of 110+ heat index values and even 112-115 on a few days is something that has significantly added to the heat stress and has been a mainstay of many of the hottest days. This is very much in line with the 1980 heat wave which kept intense humidity along with the heat (why so so many days never below 80).

This is something that will certainly be an issue in the next two weeks as well and EHW's may be a mainstay for the next 7-10 days minimum for the MEM metro beginning Wednesday. It will be a balance between dewpoints mixing out a bit as today's rain evapotranspirates later in the period and the ceiling for actual temps and could be a difference maker in the 105+ actual temps.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 18, 2022, 08:21:07 PM
It appears the records for 100+ days in other sites are:

Bowling Green: 31 (set in 1936): Currently has reported 2 such occasions.

Clarksville: 27 (set in 1954):  Currently I believe has reported 5 or 6 such occasions, but records aren't as complete

Paducah: 20 (set in 2012)  so far 1 day

Nashville: 20 (set in 1954)  so far 1 day,

Outside of Memphis it doesn't look like anyone's yearly 100 degree day record is in danger.  Clarksville might come close in more extreme situations but I don't think they will quite get there.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: gcbama on July 18, 2022, 08:23:29 PM
I will just never forget 2012 heat wave here in middle....i believe at least 6 straight days of 105-110...I believe there was a 112 in lewisburg on one of those days....but I still would rather have that that dry heat with 100 temps over 95 and a 75 dewpoint
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 19, 2022, 12:23:15 PM
12z GFS makes me want to puke.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 19, 2022, 01:07:39 PM
12z GFS makes me want to puke.
::wow::
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 19, 2022, 01:20:08 PM
Meanwhile, London is burning with record-breaking 100 degree heat in the UK

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-62184978 (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-62184978)
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 19, 2022, 01:25:07 PM
Meanwhile, London is burning with record-breaking 100 degree heat in the UK

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-62184978 (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-62184978)

The scary part is that Europe, Asia, and our area are burning from essentially the same mega ridge complex with Sonora/Bermuda/Sahara components. Not a good look into our future summers to say the least.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 19, 2022, 02:00:20 PM
The scary part is that Europe, Asia, and our area are burning from essentially the same mega ridge complex with Sonora/Bermuda/Sahara components. Not a good look into our future summers to say the least.

We have been lucky the past 10 years or so and had pretty tolerable summers. I guess we were due a scorch summer.  Luckily this isn’t common for Tennessee.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 19, 2022, 02:05:47 PM
We have been lucky the past 10 years or so and had pretty tolerable summers. I guess we were due a scorch summer.  Luckily this isn’t common for Tennessee.

Since 2012, only 2016 and 2019 were the only summers that I would consider solidly hot.  Usually, we were saved by intense ridging out west and the fact that a weakness would occur that would prevent that ridge from linking with the Bermuda ridge.  If these ridges are getting stronger and we see more ridge mergers then summers like this will become more likely.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 19, 2022, 04:51:50 PM
The latest models want to at least separate the Bermuda/Sahara component from the Sonora component at least for a little bit starting next week.  It probably won't make that much of a difference for us as the Bermuda/Saharan (aka SE Ridge) becomes entrenched, but it is a small step in the right direction to eventually move the Sonora component out west. 

Still, I would expect to see anywhere from 5 to 8 more weeks of consistent uncomfortable conditions with lows in the 70s and highs in the higher 90s/100s for most everyone in the state that is under 1,500 feet elevation.   

 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: J. Bird on July 19, 2022, 08:03:11 PM
This seems like the slowest start to Hurricane season i can ever rememeber.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 19, 2022, 08:55:11 PM
This seems like the slowest start to Hurricane season i can ever rememeber.

As long as the merged ridge mess is there then hurricane season will be contained.  I would lean towards the first 1/2 to 2/3rds of Auugst to be relatively quiet on the tropical front.  There is potential for things to get very active once cracks in the ridge armor show up. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 19, 2022, 09:03:22 PM
This seems like the slowest start to Hurricane season i can ever rememeber.
Yeah and as usual they predict active or near normal every year now days. I am guessing because normally we technically hit that. But as StormNine said we are probably looking at a very active end of the season and probably into fall as the waters are undisturbed and warm so once the ridge breaks things can start to get crazy. Just takes 1 monster storm to make us remember the year. Example. Katrina. Who remembers any of the other Hurricanes that year was there even any? (ofc there was lol) but Katrina was so strong and damaging it stands out above the rest active or not.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 19, 2022, 09:24:53 PM
Yeah and as usual they predict active or near normal every year now days. I am guessing because normally we technically hit that. But as StormNine said we are probably looking at a very active end of the season and probably into fall as the waters are undisturbed and warm so once the ridge breaks things can start to get crazy. Just takes 1 monster storm to make us remember the year. Example. Katrina. Who remembers any of the other Hurricanes that year was there even any? (ofc there was lol) but Katrina was so strong and damaging it stands out above the rest active or not.

What I actually remember about 2005 was just how active that hurricane season was -- even before Katrina, but also after. I don't remember the overall numbers without looking them up (28 named storms, 15 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes) but it was an incredibly active and damaging season. It was a season that exceeded expectations. Early predictions were for around 14 named storms and half that many hurricanes. Even as late as early September, Colorado State was predicting 20 named storms and 10 hurricanes.

But one thing 2005 had in common with 2022 was a very slow start to the Atlantic tropical season. No named storm until June 8, no hurricane until July 5, and just five named storms by this same point in the season. Let's hope we aren't in for a repeat from here.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 19, 2022, 09:27:43 PM
We have been lucky the past 10 years or so and had pretty tolerable summers. I guess we were due a scorch summer.  Luckily this isn’t common for Tennessee.

BuT wHaT aBoUt GlObAl WaRmInG?

That remark isn't directed at StormNine's comments about future summers. It just gets old seeing the media link every freakin' extreme weather event or pattern to global warming and using it as an indicator of doom-and-gloom to come. Yes, it's been an extreme summer in the Northern Hemisphere. But so was 1980. As we obviously know now, 1980 wasn't a harbinger of things to come. It was a miserable exception. I'm not a climate change denier; just a realist who would prefer some realism from the influencers of popular opinion.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: mempho on July 19, 2022, 10:30:39 PM
The benchmark heat waves of 1980/2000/2007 had a couple of things this summer has yet to achieve...but the key word here is yet as it might be tested in the weeks to come.

1) Extreme high temps. While it has been 100 many times this summer...Memphis has yet to record a high temp of 104 or higher. 103 has occurred twice. The heat waves above had a few to several days where temps approached or exceeded 105. 108 max in 1980...107 in 2000 and 106 in 2007. 2010 and 2011 actually featured 104+ temps at Memphis but these were within brief though intense heat waves. 2012 only maxed out at 103 too. It certainly feels possible that a 104-105 type max is well within reach for Memphis over the next two weeks. Whether we challenge even higher remains to be seen, but it can't be ruled out. It will likely depend on soil moisture and the latent evapotranspiration from this morning's rainfall.

2) Extended period of 100+ temps. Memphis has had 5 days consecutive of 100 in this summer so far which is in the top 10 but falls well below the three benchmarks above. 1980 featured 15 consecutive 100 days, 2000 had 10, and 2007 had 9. The next two weeks have the 2000 and 2007 marks certainly attainable it would seem, with 1980 not impossible (Thursday could be a fly in the ointment with a weak frontal passage)

3) Nighttime lows at or above 80. While there have been several mornings where it hasn't fallen below 80 at Memphis, so far a lot of mornings have seen temperatures comfortably come just below that. If you go with a threshold of 78...Memphis so far comes in at #20. The 1980 benchmark is an insane 30 (15 consecutive) days where it did not fall below 80 at Memphis. This seems very very hard to top. 2022 has so far had 6 total. #2 is only 5 days consecutive (1935). There were 4 days consecutive at or above 80 in 2007, and I would not rule out either of these being challenged. 2000 doesn't factor into this one at all...the extreme drought of that year keep minimum temps below 80 most nights of the extreme heat.

What is making this heat wave rival closer to 1980 vs 2000/2007 is the humidity/heat index factor. 2000 and 2007's drought allowed dewpoints to mix out and kept afternoon heat index values from challenging 110 much. In fact 2000 saw no heat advisories even issued as heat index values often were below actual temps. 2007 did see a period of heat advisories and heat warnings but it was only during the hottest stretches and 110+ was marginal. The amount of days of 110+ heat index values and even 112-115 on a few days is something that has significantly added to the heat stress and has been a mainstay of many of the hottest days. This is very much in line with the 1980 heat wave which kept intense humidity along with the heat (why so so many days never below 80).

This is something that will certainly be an issue in the next two weeks as well and EHW's may be a mainstay for the next 7-10 days minimum for the MEM metro beginning Wednesday. It will be a balance between dewpoints mixing out a bit as today's rain evapotranspirates later in the period and the ceiling for actual temps and could be a difference maker in the 105+ actual temps.

Great post.  Thank you as I learned a few things!
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: dwagner88 on July 19, 2022, 10:31:13 PM
We actually had three separate thundershowers move through today. Wettest day we've had in a long time. I don't know that it got much above the low 80's. So far KCHA has not hit 100 this year. Our last triple digit reading was October 2019.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: mempho on July 19, 2022, 10:38:26 PM
What I actually remember about 2005 was just how active that hurricane season was -- even before Katrina, but also after. I don't remember the overall numbers without looking them up (28 named storms, 15 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes) but it was an incredibly active and damaging season. It was a season that exceeded expectations. Early predictions were for around 14 named storms and half that many hurricanes. Even as late as early September, Colorado State was predicting 20 named storms and 10 hurricanes.

But one thing 2005 had in common with 2022 was a very slow start to the Atlantic tropical season. No named storm until June 8, no hurricane until July 5, and just five named storms by this same point in the season. Let's hope we aren't in for a repeat from here.

We’ll, if there’s anything this ridge is good for, it’s to keep a 2005 redux at bay.  I’m not sure I’m overstating Things either.  The position and heat potential of the Loop Current and eddy was actually higher at the start of tours season than it was in 2005.

If the ridge suddenly breaks down in mid August, there could be a lot of trouble if other factors line up.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 20, 2022, 01:25:21 AM
Pouring rain here again.. lol So lucky.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: JKT1987 on July 20, 2022, 07:26:12 AM
Decent bit of clouds/showers across N & W Arkansas ahead of a cold front and triggered by a shortwave trough swinging through. Will be interested to see if that impacts further southeast or thins out. Could be another spoiler to 100+ today locally. Otherwise 82 is the start temp for KMEM so well on the way if clouds are not a significant factor.

Have lost confidence somewhat in having an extreme 7+ day stretch of 100 or extreme 104-105+ type temps. Still excessively hot regardless.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 20, 2022, 10:14:55 AM
Decent bit of clouds/showers across N & W Arkansas ahead of a cold front and triggered by a shortwave trough swinging through. Will be interested to see if that impacts further southeast or thins out. Could be another spoiler to 100+ today locally. Otherwise 82 is the start temp for KMEM so well on the way if clouds are not a significant factor.

Have lost confidence somewhat in having an extreme 7+ day stretch of 100 or extreme 104-105+ type temps. Still excessively hot regardless.
Could be the approaching clouds, but the temp at KMEM isn’t rising like it was before the rain earlier this week. I wonder if that deluge did a number on the ground keeping it wet and thus hampering temperature.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 20, 2022, 11:18:53 AM
The wife and I were discussing this earlier. Would we rather endure this heat or nasty, cold, cloudy February and March. My vote is this heat, you can still at least go for runs, fish, grill out etc. I can’t stand those cloudy cold endless February and March days awaiting spring.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 20, 2022, 11:28:48 AM
The wife and I were discussing this earlier. Would we rather endure this heat or nasty, cold, cloudy February and March. My vote is this heat, you can still at least go for runs, fish, grill out etc. I can’t stand those cloudy cold endless February and March days awaiting spring.
February and March are supposed to be cold. To **** with this heat were it belongs.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 20, 2022, 11:46:56 AM
The wife and I were discussing this earlier. Would we rather endure this heat or nasty, cold, cloudy February and March. My vote is this heat, you can still at least go for runs, fish, grill out etc. I can’t stand those cloudy cold endless February and March days awaiting spring.

From worst to tolerable:

- High Humidity Heat Wave
- Unusual Warmth in Late December-January
- Cloudy/Cool Days in Late Feb through May/June
- Dry Heat Wave 
- Cloudy/Cool/Damp Days in September through November (actually likable if it occurs after a heat wave or unusually warm weather such as mid to late Oct 2019)   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: JKT1987 on July 20, 2022, 12:10:31 PM
Could be the approaching clouds, but the temp at KMEM isn’t rising like it was before the rain earlier this week. I wonder if that deluge did a number on the ground keeping it wet and thus hampering temperature.

Up to 94/77 at KMEM at Noon so making up a little ground but does seem to be residual moisture effects plus some of the cloud cover which has thinned out but another patch looking to move through which may slow the heating for a bit. Going to be close on 100 imo but still possible
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 20, 2022, 12:30:37 PM
February and March are supposed to be cold. To **** with this heat were it belongs.

Yea but summer in the south is supposed to be hot as ****
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 20, 2022, 01:15:22 PM
Yea but summer in the south is supposed to be hot as ****
You just don't like cold in February because duck season is over.  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 20, 2022, 01:17:31 PM
94/79 heat Index 112 at 1 pm in Dyersburg. I dont see us reaching forecasted high of 100 with that DP.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 20, 2022, 01:50:17 PM
You just don't like cold in February because duck season is over.  ::evillaugh::

This is a very true statement.  Swamp will likely go dry soon
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 20, 2022, 03:11:47 PM
The wife and I were discussing this earlier. Would we rather endure this heat or nasty, cold, cloudy February and March. My vote is this heat, you can still at least go for runs, fish, grill out etc. I can’t stand those cloudy cold endless February and March days awaiting spring.

I prefer to run when it's below zero as opposed to this current temperature... I hate running in air that feels like you could cut with a knife
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 20, 2022, 03:21:57 PM
95/81 HI 117. ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 20, 2022, 04:30:50 PM
I prefer to run when it's below zero as opposed to this current temperature... I hate running in air that feels like you could cut with a knife

Lol dang. I pretty much only run during the summer months. Got too much hunting to do from September-January.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 20, 2022, 05:14:58 PM
February and March are supposed to be cold. To **** with this heat were it belongs.

Isn't summer supposed to be hot?  >:D

My favorite thing about the climate in this part of the world is the constant changing of the seasons. The heat feels good for a while after getting sick of the cold in the winter ... then the cold in the winter feels good for a while after getting sick of the heat in the summer. The older I get, the more I'd prefer to have way less of the extremes on either end of the scale, but I'm not going to complain about hot weather too much. Of course that's easy for me to say, since July in this part of the state has actually featured quite a bit of thunderstorm activity to keep the heat in check.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: JKT1987 on July 20, 2022, 05:35:59 PM
Looks like KMEM topped out at 97 with a 112 heat index. So yes definitely some latent moisture evapotranspiration... and the higher dewpoints between that and the approaching front were just enough to keep it short. Clouds for the most part by afternoon were not a factor.

Assuming no significant storms with the front (unlikely) tonight-tomorrow morning...lower dewpoints and sunshine tomorrow could actually give tomorrow a better shot at it. We will see...

Meanwhile

Quote
NWS Paducah, KY
Cape Girardeau has officially tied their all time heat index record of 123. The temperature and dew point at 5 PM was 97/83! #mowx
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 20, 2022, 05:37:17 PM
Meanwhile, the northern plateau is up to 6.7" of rain so far this month -- almost twice the normal amount. We were the first part of the state to enter Moderate Drought, but I'm guessing that even the Abnormally Dry inclusion will be gone when  the USDM releases its update on Thursday.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: 82/83 El Nino baby on July 20, 2022, 05:44:32 PM
Meanwhile, the northern plateau is up to 6.7" of rain so far this month -- almost twice the normal amount. We were the first part of the state to enter Moderate Drought, but I'm guessing that even the Abnormally Dry inclusion will be gone when the USDM releases its update on Thursday.

Same on the middle plateau. At 5.2' of rain and my area was never listed on the USDM as far as I know. And yet somehow, it still feels like this year has been somewhat dry compared to last year.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: mempho on July 20, 2022, 05:47:10 PM
The wife and I were discussing this earlier. Would we rather endure this heat or nasty, cold, cloudy February and March. My vote is this heat, you can still at least go for runs, fish, grill out etc. I can’t stand those cloudy cold endless February and March days awaiting spring.

Cloudy and cold is much better than this.  You can always put on more layers.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 20, 2022, 05:50:56 PM
Cloudy and cold is much better than this.  You can always put on more layers.

I just prefer no layers this time of year, let it all hang out free
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 20, 2022, 06:00:47 PM
I just prefer no layers this time of year, let it all hang out free
lol no doubt, nothing like running in your birthday suit...
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 20, 2022, 06:25:49 PM
lol no doubt, nothing like running in your birthday suit...

Yea dragging the pavement hurts and slows you down a little but hey it’s good to be blessed  ::rofl::
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: mempho on July 20, 2022, 06:45:10 PM
Looks like KMEM topped out at 97 with a 112 heat index. So yes definitely some latent moisture evapotranspiration... and the higher dewpoints between that and the approaching front were just enough to keep it short. Clouds for the most part by afternoon were not a factor.

Assuming no significant storms with the front (unlikely) tonight-tomorrow morning...lower dewpoints and sunshine tomorrow could actually give tomorrow a better shot at it. We will see...

Meanwhile

Personally, I’ve decided that the dewpoint is much more important than the actual temperature.  I believe we’d be much better off just going with blast furnace extreme heat rather than just a very hot, sauna heat.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 20, 2022, 06:49:09 PM
 
lol no doubt, nothing like running in your birthday suit...
Just another reason to hate heat. The thought of you and tnhunter running nude. ::wow::
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 21, 2022, 02:50:22 AM
Non stop heat lightning with these storms its like a big strobe light in the sky. Its so cool, lol. Also, some areas in Kentucky have received around 10 inch's of rain past 3 days and 6 inch's overnight. Rain seems to be on the move now vs the stalling training of it so will probably just be a glancing downpour with maybe 1-2inchs in spots east of I-40.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: dwagner88 on July 21, 2022, 06:20:12 AM
Looks like some parts of Knox and Anderson counties got around 7-8” of rain last night.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 21, 2022, 07:45:31 AM
Next week looks a bit better than once thought.

It will still be hot and it will be very humid but due to a ridge forming in the Pacific NW that will allow for a boundary/weak frontal system to drop and to position itself somewhere in KY/TN region providing rain chances. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 21, 2022, 12:08:26 PM
Looks like the dryness and lower DP’s are setting in. KMEM already hit 99 before noon
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: JKT1987 on July 21, 2022, 01:38:32 PM
Looks like KMEM hit 100 at 1:20 just as dewpoints fell back to 70… would seem 101-102 is on the table with a couple hours of heating to go
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 21, 2022, 03:37:41 PM
Most of West TN/Northwest Middle TN is now in D2 (Severe Drought).   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: dwagner88 on July 21, 2022, 03:55:32 PM
Almost 2" of rain and a ridiculous amount of lightning with the storms this morning. Three homes were struck in Hamilton County.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 21, 2022, 04:35:57 PM
We're up to 8.54" of rain now for the month. And the average temp is running less than 2 degrees above normal.

Amazing the difference just a couple hundred miles can make.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: mempho on July 21, 2022, 05:28:24 PM
Looks like KMEM hit 100 at 1:20 just as dewpoints fell back to 70… would seem 101-102 is on the table with a couple hours of heating to go

It does not appear to have worked out that way this time.  Oddly, the dewpoint and temperature fell in tamdem over the course of the afternoon.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 21, 2022, 07:10:06 PM
We're up to 8.54" of rain now for the month. And the average temp is running less than 2 degrees above normal.

Amazing the difference just a couple hundred miles can make.


Meanwhile, Bowling Green and Nashville if they don't finish with the warmest July on record it will be fingernail close and will depend on what happens next week.     
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 21, 2022, 07:43:09 PM
 Today was 96-97 and oddly enough felt good with the lower dew points after yesterdays heat index of 115-117.  We stayed outside most the day today playing with the kids.  Trying to enjoy the last few days of summer before inservice next week ::doh::

Sitting outside now drinking a beer and smoking a cigar and it feels awesome.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 22, 2022, 11:18:08 AM
Today was 96-97 and oddly enough felt good with the lower dew points after yesterdays heat index of 115-117.  We stayed outside most the day today playing with the kids.  Trying to enjoy the last few days of summer before inservice next week ::doh::

Sitting outside now drinking a beer and smoking a cigar and it feels awesome.

Dry heat is such a nice contrast to the bath water we usually have. I'll take 100/60 over 90/70.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 22, 2022, 11:19:40 AM
Isn't summer supposed to be hot?  >:D

Tell us more what constitutes "hot" in Oneida, Crockett  ;)
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: cgauxknox on July 22, 2022, 12:07:57 PM
Not weather related but potentially environmental. I've seen discussion online of a chemical release from a facility in NE TN with evacuations and a spill into a waterway. No other details at this time
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 22, 2022, 12:18:46 PM
Tell us more what constitutes "hot" in Oneida, Crockett  ;)

Let me tell you something. I spent a couple hours outside Wednesday morning filming some shots, and literally nearly melted. I had sweat running into every orifice on my body and soaking my undies. If there had been a fan running, and there hadn't been ladies present, I would've dropped my drawers, spread my cheeks apart, and laid down in front of that fan. As it was, I gave serious consideration to diving into a muddy, nasty, lily-filled stock pond that was just over the hill. I got in the car when I was finished, started her up, and the temperature read 81°. Eighty-freakin-one. I was insulted by that, because I was sure it was at least 110°. I have been splitting firewood for a while every day and it generally only takes me a half-hour or so before I'm laying under a shade tree with a wet towel over my head saying that I am on the verge of a heart attack. We haven't had a 90° day here since July 7, when it hit 94°. And because everything is relative to what you're conditioned to, a 94° day here feels like a bounce in the sack with Satan himself.

So to answer your question, I would say that anything over 85° constitutes hot in Oneida. But let's not confuse the point. Dyer said that summer's heat isn't better than winter's cold because winter is supposed to be cold. I was just countering that summer is supposed to be hot. But why are you hating on me because the plateau is cooler than the valley? Sure it's cooler here; I can count on one hand the number of 100° days we've had in the past 70 years. But, hey, you choose to be a flatlander. To paraphrase someone who I think we both know, "I don't understand why you live in Tennessee if you hate hot weather. Tennessee is easily among the hottest states in the U.S."  >:D
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 22, 2022, 01:35:54 PM
Tennessee is not a Top 5 state in heat (not referring to Crockett just the overall perspective) and is probably in the 11-14 range.  I would say TN would rank higher on wetness than heat states like (MS, LA, AL, FL, TX, HI, SC, GA, and ARK) are all solidly hotter than Tennessee. 

It should be noted that with the exception of Arizona (which places in the 10-14 range like TN), the Desert Southwest states all place near the middle of the road in hotness because they experience cold nights due to being in the desert plus there are locations like Flagstaff, Park City, Raton, and Truckee that have climates that can be just as cold (referring to mean temperature) as places in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 22, 2022, 01:39:49 PM
What makes TN/KY and the general Ohio/Tennessee Valley stink in the summer is the combination of summer heat and humidity.  Crockett provides the perfect example of a not really that hot day that feels like a pile of dog diarrhea because of the insanely high dewpoint. 

That is also what is making this summer's heat (minus a few days like today or yesterday) so awful.  This is why 2012 and even 2007 may be more bearable than this year or 2016 (where you just had endless 91-97 days with dewpoints at or just below 80 degrees).  I would argue that 2016 was even more unbearable than this year because of its extreme and non-stop humidity.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Nash_LSU on July 22, 2022, 03:12:09 PM
I would've dropped my drawers, spread my cheeks apart, and laid down in front of that fan.

We've all been there, brother.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 22, 2022, 09:22:07 PM
Let me tell you something. I spent a couple hours outside Wednesday morning filming some shots, and literally nearly melted. I had sweat running into every orifice on my body and soaking my undies. If there had been a fan running, and there hadn't been ladies present, I would've dropped my drawers, spread my cheeks apart, and laid down in front of that fan. As it was, I gave serious consideration to diving into a muddy, nasty, lily-filled stock pond that was just over the hill. I got in the car when I was finished, started her up, and the temperature read 81°. Eighty-freakin-one. I was insulted by that, because I was sure it was at least 110°. I have been splitting firewood for a while every day and it generally only takes me a half-hour or so before I'm laying under a shade tree with a wet towel over my head saying that I am on the verge of a heart attack. We haven't had a 90° day here since July 7, when it hit 94°. And because everything is relative to what you're conditioned to, a 94° day here feels like a bounce in the sack with Satan himself.

So to answer your question, I would say that anything over 85° constitutes hot in Oneida. But let's not confuse the point. Dyer said that summer's heat isn't better than winter's cold because winter is supposed to be cold. I was just countering that summer is supposed to be hot. But why are you hating on me because the plateau is cooler than the valley? Sure it's cooler here; I can count on one hand the number of 100° days we've had in the past 70 years. But, hey, you choose to be a flatlander. To paraphrase someone who I think we both know, "I don't understand why you live in Tennessee if you hate hot weather. Tennessee is easily among the hottest states in the U.S."  >:D


(https://media2.giphy.com/media/1BFGiiHYS2dAbC0Lx1/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b9520c5f4c4a20553bfded74d6f5680766f9c692f220&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 22, 2022, 09:24:07 PM
I don't understand how you tolerate living in Tennessee if you hate rainy weather. TN is easily among the rainiest states in the U.S.  ::rain::

 ::shrug::
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 23, 2022, 02:54:25 PM
The important development is we start to see the Sonora and the Bermuda/Sahara merged ridge start to break up a bit.  The individual rides will still be strong and at times will merge again leading to still a hot August (probably early September), but you can start to see subtle hints that this pattern will probably break sometime in early to mid-September.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 24, 2022, 07:31:00 AM
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1658665717

This is going to help.  The latest WPC shows a widespread 1-3 inches of rain statewide this week with of course the potential for isolated/scattered corridors receiving much more.

It kinda reminds me of when 2012 started to turn around and get wet in the latter part of July. 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 24, 2022, 09:18:11 AM
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1658665717

This is going to help.  The latest WPC shows a widespread 1-3 inches of rain statewide this week with of course the potential for isolated/scattered corridors receiving much more.

It kinda reminds me of when 2012 started to turn around and get wet in the latter part of July.

Need it something awful in the far west parts of the state
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 24, 2022, 01:22:11 PM
It's now a Top 5 all-time July for rainfall here. The obvious caveat is that NWS records only date back 70 years, so the history is relatively recent. Still, it's been an exceptionally wet July, and one that no one saw coming.

If forecasts hold for the week upcoming, it'll end as the wettest July on record -- perhaps by a long shot.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Clay on July 24, 2022, 03:37:14 PM
Got a 5 minute shower.. not enough to get the street wet but enough to spike the dew point from 72 to 78.  ::hot::

GFS advertising a clean fropa next weekend. Lows 60-65.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 24, 2022, 06:12:54 PM
Yep. I could care less that it’s going to be hot in long range. All I am concentrating on is high of 84 Saturday.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 24, 2022, 07:48:05 PM
The heat finally returns to the Pacific Northwest with mid to upper 90s for the coastal metros and highs up to 108-110 in the interiors.   

This westward movement/flex of the Sonoran Heat Ridge in that area is what is driving our wetter pattern and frontal passage that we are going to experience over the course of the next week.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 25, 2022, 06:21:54 AM
OHX on the coming pattern change:

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
146 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Our stable weather pattern is coming to an abrupt end starting
today as more unsettled weather looks to develop and stick around
for the next several days. A surface boundary has developed to our
north and looks to drop southward into Middle Tennessee this
afternoon and evening. So look for temperatures to continue
backing off from last week`s excessive values owing to the
increased cloud cover and rain chances.
There is a marginal risk of
severe storms tomorrow and Wednesday across most the OHX CWA.
However, it is unclear if we can expect a clean fropa with this
boundary. Judging by the NBM forecast temperatures, we won`t
experience an actual frontal passage until maybe this weekend
.

Quote
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Rain/storm chances will persist throughout the week as moisture
gets left in place by the aforementioned boundary. Temperatures
will level off closer to normal values starting today, so don`t
look for any more Heat Advisories any time soon. Both the GFS amd
Euro develop a second east-west boundary that drops into Middle
Tennessee on Friday, so look for increased POP`s near the end of
the week and weekend. The NBM also suggests an actual fropa as
temperatures this weekend look to be considerably cooler. The 7-day
QPF totals range from less than 3" to INXS of 6", so this would go a
long way toward eradicating the rainfall deficits that have
accumulated this summer.


 ::rain::
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 25, 2022, 08:14:04 AM
The Euro shows a widespread 3-7 inches of rain across the entire KY/TN landsurface.

This will help provide some key drought relief, and will have some impacts when the heat does return in full-force by the 2nd week in August (probably a more humid heat versus a dry heat and fewer chances to crack 100+ saving the 100 degree record for Memphis from being reached potentially). 
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 25, 2022, 09:47:15 AM
Wild blackberries were a bust this year… at least where I looked. In comparison to the plump juicy berries I picked last year, the heat and dry stress of June this year killed off the brambles and left the berries shriveling on the bushes by the time they would have been ready to pick.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 25, 2022, 12:36:50 PM
The Euro shows a widespread 3-7 inches of rain across the entire KY/TN landsurface.

This will help provide some key drought relief, and will have some impacts when the heat does return in full-force by the 2nd week in August (probably a more humid heat versus a dry heat and fewer chances to crack 100+ saving the 100 degree record for Memphis from being reached potentially).
That would save the soybean crop around here. It is to late for corn.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: joemomma on July 25, 2022, 01:07:06 PM
Wild blackberries were a bust this year… at least where I looked. In comparison to the plump juicy berries I picked last year, the heat and dry stress of June this year killed off the brambles and left the berries shriveling on the bushes by the time they would have been ready to pick.

Same here, there should have been plenty at our property but they dried up on the vine before ripening.  And even at that, they were very small.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 25, 2022, 02:16:03 PM
That would save the soybean crop around here. It is to late for corn.
some farmers are planting a second late crop on some things this summer , there are counting on and hoping for a late freeze …
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 25, 2022, 03:39:38 PM
100/75 HI @ 115 at KMEM. Your days are numbered. For awhile anyways.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 25, 2022, 08:06:41 PM
KMEM tied 1952 for #3 now at 16 days AOA 100. Probably will surpass but not sure we get to #2 in 1954 which is 26. This heat high will have to come back after a week or so. The GEFS does exactly that while the CFS2 goes back and forth between both above and below periods. It’s going to be much wetter this far west so I can’t imagine that won’t hinder 100 degree days down the road.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 25, 2022, 08:34:08 PM
The strength of the Aleutian Island High Pressure is going to be something to monitor going into August. Strong blocking along or south of this area is a tall-tale sign of some serious torching for our region and that goes for both warm and cool seasons.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 26, 2022, 05:55:40 AM
While we burn 🔥 up and dry as as bone here , St. Louis is flooded over , amounts over 10 inches in metro area
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 26, 2022, 07:32:28 AM
It should be noted that all of TN is under a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Thursday.

Even with drought conditions, the heavy rainfall rates and the tendency for storms to train will cause pockets of flooding concern. In areas where the soil is really dry that could even enhance runoff.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Thundersnow on July 26, 2022, 08:39:45 AM
It does sound bad around the St. Louis area. Warning texts indicate water rescues from homes, and I-70 is closed in spots... reminiscent of 2010 around here.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 26, 2022, 08:45:28 AM
While at least localized heavy rain is a threat for all, The Eastern Kentucky/West Virginia/Northeast Tennessee/Southwest Virginia area is of particular concern in the coming days.

Some of that area already has fairly saturated ground due to wet conditions leading up to this event and the potential for corridors of 5-7+ inches of rain plus topography means that localized widespread/considerable flooding is in the cards for this zone.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: dwagner88 on July 26, 2022, 09:59:17 AM
Well in a disappointing flashback to winter 2021, looks like the rain over the next week will be primarily an I-40 north event. The Euro and especially the GFS are pretty dry in this corner.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 26, 2022, 12:05:34 PM
Memphis area going flirt breaking a100 again today appears
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 26, 2022, 03:58:07 PM
After the rain chances of this week/weekend and maybe into the first few days of August the King Kong Ridge looks to go Bananas. 

If you like your ridging strong and to expand from Hawaii to the Middle East then you would love the GFS post Day 10.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 26, 2022, 04:53:11 PM
After the rain chances of this week/weekend and maybe into the first few days of August the King Kong Ridge looks to go Bananas. 

If you like your ridging strong and to expand from Hawaii to the Middle East then you would love the GFS post Day 10.

Seems to be the theme all summer, 10-15 days out the heat looks oppressive but when the time comes it’s much more tolerable with plenty of breaks as well.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 26, 2022, 07:47:19 PM
Seems to be the theme all summer, 10-15 days out the heat looks oppressive but when the time comes it’s much more tolerable with plenty of breaks as well.

If we can get enough widespread rainfall in the coming 5-7 days then that will help us out somewhat or at least prevent the absurd 104+ type of stuff.   

Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 27, 2022, 08:30:31 AM
After the rain chances of this week/weekend and maybe into the first few days of August the King Kong Ridge looks to go Bananas. 

If you like your ridging strong and to expand from Hawaii to the Middle East then you would love the GFS post Day 10.
long range euro also agrees … it’s fixing get hot 🥵 after this little rain chance s
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: mamMATTus on July 27, 2022, 09:49:50 AM
I'm definitely feeling a hot and dry period on the way so I really hope we cash in fully on these upcoming rain chances down here in the southeast corner
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 27, 2022, 11:53:59 AM
Now till about Aug 2nd-3rd is going to be a very important period to cash in on because after Aug 4th it is on.  I expect this ridge period (minus a few breaks) to dominate through most of August and at least the first week or two of September.   

The question will be will we do a 2011/2012 and go and have a nice fall after early September or do we do a 2018/2019 and go from summer to winter?  I refuse to consider 2016 as an option and thankfully that was coming off a strong El-Nino so that isn't likely.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 27, 2022, 01:20:51 PM
Now till about Aug 2nd-3rd is going to be a very important period to cash in on because after Aug 4th it is on.  I expect this ridge period (minus a few breaks) to dominate through most of August and at least the first week or two of September.   

The question will be will we do a 2011/2012 and go and have a nice fall after early September or do we do a 2018/2019 and go from summer to winter?  I refuse to consider 2016 as an option and thankfully that was coming off a strong El-Nino so that isn't likely.   
i see summer hanging on till early mid October here … as we start to slowly roll into fall after wards …. Look for a very mild winter overall this season
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 27, 2022, 03:30:18 PM
East TN looks to remain wet through mid-August despite the super ridge core to our northwest according to the GFS.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on July 27, 2022, 05:33:07 PM
East TN looks to remain wet through mid-August despite the super ridge core to our northwest according to the GFS.

We don't want no more.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: dwagner88 on July 27, 2022, 06:23:18 PM
We don't want no more.
Send it to me! Still absurdly dry here.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 28, 2022, 07:09:46 AM
Eastern KY (especially the Hazard area) became the most recent victim of torrential flash flooding overnight as 6-8 inches of rain fell hard and fast.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 28, 2022, 09:12:21 AM
NW Middle TN from Paris to Erin is now in D3 Extreme Drought.  Meanwhile, drought has pretty much been erased east of I-65 due to a wet to very wet July, with the exception of Franklin/Moore Counties.   

Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 28, 2022, 12:43:53 PM
If this system is going to help with the drought around here, then it better get with it.  So far it has been very scattered and very light rain IMBY.  Picked up 2/10 of an inch so far.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 28, 2022, 01:33:37 PM
If this system is going to help with the drought around here, then it better get with it.  So far it has been very scattered and very light rain IMBY.  Picked up 2/10 of an inch so far.
yeah, the models are just being way way over agressive with this rainfall projected... be blessed if we crack half inch over next 3 days
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 28, 2022, 02:37:09 PM
The HRRR wants to throw a complex into West TN overnight giving a widespread 1-4 inches of rain in the Dyersburg/Jackson/Memphis triangle.

We will have to see if that occurs.   

On the other note, at least for our region the models have dialed down the heat somewhat, but have dialed up the humidity making the next Tuesday-Friday period at the very least feel pretty horrid.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 28, 2022, 02:42:10 PM
Eastern KY (especially the Hazard area) became the most recent victim of torrential flash flooding overnight as 6-8 inches of rain fell hard and fast.

The pictures are devastating. A lot of those homes are going to have to be demolished and rebuilt.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on July 28, 2022, 02:44:52 PM
Now till about Aug 2nd-3rd is going to be a very important period to cash in on because after Aug 4th it is on.  I expect this ridge period (minus a few breaks) to dominate through most of August and at least the first week or two of September.   

The question will be will we do a 2011/2012 and go and have a nice fall after early September or do we do a 2018/2019 and go from summer to winter?  I refuse to consider 2016 as an option and thankfully that was coming off a strong El-Nino so that isn't likely.   

The ridge over the northern Plains at the beginning of the month will be a force to be reckoned with. Temperatures are going to be in the 100-110 range as far north as SD and IA.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 28, 2022, 02:50:41 PM
If this system is going to help with the drought around here, then it better get with it.  So far it has been very scattered and very light rain IMBY.  Picked up 2/10 of an inch so far.
I was going to post the rain totals and all of that earlier last weekend as it was basically looking promising Monday-future.. But decided not to based on how fast the models tend to change. I did get a little rain under .50 this week but man the models was looking so good for a full week of decent rains areawide. Now some have gotten some rain 1-2+ even.. But yeah just isn't showing out as much as I was hoping. And now the models to me seems to be showing more hit or miss type rains and thats it. Maybe they will be wrong this time and we get a decent widespread event lol
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 28, 2022, 03:28:38 PM
The ridge over the northern Plains at the beginning of the month will be a force to be reckoned with. Temperatures are going to be in the 100-110 range as far north as SD and IA.

That even links up with the Sahara ridge on the GFS and torches everyone from the Rocky Mountains to Central Europe.  The core of the ridging would be to our north, but we would still face solidly above-average temperatures.   

Interestingly, that similar pattern occurred in late July/August of 2012 as well.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on July 28, 2022, 04:06:47 PM
Surely we can catch a break and get a decent rain the next few days. Up to .75 in last 52 days at my house.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 28, 2022, 04:29:52 PM
HI at KMEM was 118 at 4:10pm. 99/79. Pretty good line moving into this air mass across the MS River as we speak.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 28, 2022, 04:51:54 PM
Its crazy the rain literally danced around me this afternoon although not much more then a few downpours there still would of been nice to have something. Especially with as widespread as this front was able to make the rains north of us the past few days. I guess its either the front not having enough forcing or the ridge flexing to hard to keep the storms from taking over or just bad luck.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Jilly on July 28, 2022, 05:41:48 PM
Quote
Tornado Warning
TNC175-177-185-282300-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0009.220728T2231Z-220728T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
531 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Van Buren County in Middle Tennessee...
  Northeastern Warren County in Middle Tennessee...
  Southwestern White County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 600 PM CDT.

* At 531 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 7 miles east of McMinnville, moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  McMinnville, Spencer, Doyle, Rock Island State Park and Fall Creek
  Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3563 8536 3561 8572 3579 8577 3590 8540
      3565 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 258DEG 17KT 3572 8566

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Rose
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 28, 2022, 06:02:36 PM
Its crazy the rain literally danced around me this afternoon although not much more then a few downpours there still would of been nice to have something. Especially with as widespread as this front was able to make the rains north of us the past few days. I guess its either the front not having enough forcing or the ridge flexing to hard to keep the storms from taking over or just bad luck.
frontal
Boundary doesn’t have enough ump… not sagging south much
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 28, 2022, 06:11:02 PM
Drought stricken areas seem to have the ability to form their own micro climates and ward off even the best of rain chances. Have seen this scenario lots before here in west TN. Sometimes I blame it on the pyramid in Memphis, keep that **** in the desert.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 28, 2022, 08:25:43 PM
Most of the activity is along the front that is slowly moving into Kentucky.  Iam hoping some of the outflow from that activity will cause more storms to form in NW TN/Southern Jackson Purchase and help things there.

So far the rains seem to be avoiding the worst of the drought in West TN/far SW KY for the most part.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Matthew on July 28, 2022, 11:47:40 PM
The HRRR wants to throw a complex into West TN overnight giving a widespread 1-4 inches of rain in the Dyersburg/Jackson/Memphis triangle.

We will have to see if that occurs.   

On the other note, at least for our region the models have dialed down the heat somewhat, but have dialed up the humidity making the next Tuesday-Friday period at the very least feel pretty horrid.

For this area around I65 to Murfreesboro.  I can say what Crockett was saying.  There has been plenty of rain here. The air is already extremely muggy here.  It’s not hot but the humidity is making up for it.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 28, 2022, 11:50:07 PM
Most of the activity is along the front that is slowly moving into Kentucky.  Iam hoping some of the outflow from that activity will cause more storms to form in NW TN/Southern Jackson Purchase and help things there.

So far the rains seem to be avoiding the worst of the drought in West TN/far SW KY for the most part.
believe that when I see it
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 29, 2022, 12:03:58 AM
For this area around I65 to Murfreesboro.  I can say what Crockett was saying.  There has been plenty of rain here. The air is already extremely muggy here.  It’s not hot but the humidity is making up for it.   
Yeah I have been watching your area you and north north east of me have really been lucking out on almost every rain chance lol. Its just been a dud lately here still better then west and far from drought but would really want to get some soaking rains as I love rains and snows and strongly dislike dry boring weather.
Edit. 411am hear thunder thought oh rain! nope all south yet again missed.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 29, 2022, 05:45:41 AM
believe that when I see it

Yep, we picked up less than 0.10 in last night in SE Dyer County.  Like a freaking rain bubble here, sucks a giant one. Sitting at 0.5 in so far and we are getting pretty far into this event.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 29, 2022, 06:48:26 AM
[attachimg=1]

The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 29, 2022, 07:07:25 AM
Finally getting it good IMBY, need about 12 hours of this
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 29, 2022, 07:16:00 AM
Ofc as soon as the trajectory of the rain is not me it makes a steady to heavy rain blob. North holds gets to where my area would be good the front makes nothing then next day as the fronts south the rains blossom. Sunday looks like a decent chance areawide hopefully that pans out for me or ill cry for weeks :( lol

Edit. Finally got a decent downpour. we will see what later today brings. Its been cloudy and gloomy all morning though so thats definitely a treat from the hot summer sun imo
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: joemomma on July 29, 2022, 08:01:14 AM
We were on the northern edge of that TOR warned system last night.  It wasn't too bad, I didn't notice any hail.  Just what I would call a "good thunderstorm", although it dumped the rain which we needed badly.  Most of White County has missed out on the numerous showers that have been around.  And, it started raining again this morning.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on July 30, 2022, 11:49:48 PM
It could change but is that 50’s I see for lows statewide on the GFS? I don’t see Memphis in the 100’s consistently. Maybe summer has finally peaked.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on July 31, 2022, 06:52:00 AM
It could change but is that 50’s I see for lows statewide on the GFS? I don’t see Memphis in the 100’s consistently. Maybe summer has finally peaked.
while the euro has Memphis not getting below 75 for a low the next 10 days. Lol
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 31, 2022, 08:47:03 AM
The weeklies of both Euro/GFS and long-range GFS want to throw another stalled-out frontal passage our way in mid-August. Hopefully, that will provide more rain to SW Kentucky/West TN than this round does. 

We are certainly going to be hot/humid/miserable in rounds during August and will very likely finish the month above average, but I don't think we will be as bad as July.  The northern stream is picking up and in about 2 weeks the Monsoon in the Southwest should be gone along with the Sonora component of the ridge moving westward.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: mamMATTus on July 31, 2022, 03:43:48 PM
MRX absolutely bombed for our forecast this weekend. They haven't been anywhere near close on storm chances.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Matthew on July 31, 2022, 04:23:12 PM
MRX absolutely bombed for our forecast this weekend. They haven't been anywhere near close on storm chances.

That seems to be across the board.  Yes we have had our rain here in the Boro but I believe a lot of the area came up way short.  I believe even west TN & western KY also.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: TNHunter on July 31, 2022, 05:38:21 PM
Big time short here in Dyer County. Got 1.5 IMBY, forecasted ~4.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Cody029 on July 31, 2022, 06:29:38 PM
That seems to be across the board.  Yes we have had our rain here in the Boro but I believe a lot of the area came up way short.  I believe even west TN & western KY also.
Yeah, Like literally very little here this week. Was expecting almost a washout at least when all combined but definitely nothing close to that. Future looks bleak as well however this week looked super promising and flunked so maybe these next few weeks horrible chances turn out better at least locally for me :D
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: dwagner88 on July 31, 2022, 07:19:14 PM
MRX absolutely bombed for our forecast this weekend. They haven't been anywhere near close on storm chances.
I’m in Franklin for work this weekend, but it certainly looks like most of the area got good rain this evening. Also looks like we may get a repeat of this pattern towards the end of the work week after a quick break Tuesday and Wednesday. July is the wettest month of the year at KCHA, and this one won’t finish above normal, but we are doing better than this time last week IMO.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 31, 2022, 08:12:55 PM
Big time short here in Dyer County. Got 1.5 IMBY, forecasted ~4.

I would say I got around 2 inches so far, but some in far NW TN and far SW KY probably only got about a half-inch or so.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on July 31, 2022, 08:17:15 PM
Thanks to two cloudy days, Nashville will barely avoid having the warmest July on record.   
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: dwagner88 on July 31, 2022, 08:53:57 PM
Thanks to two cloudy days, Nashville will barely avoid having the warmest July on record.   
This evening was downright nice. Breezy, partly cloudy, low eighties. Can’t complain about that. I ran 10 miles between 5-7 PM. Normally that’s not possible in July.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: StormNine on August 01, 2022, 08:35:25 AM
Quote
The numbers are in! July 2022 ended up being the #2 hottest and #8 wettest July on record in #Nashville, with an average temperature of 83.9° and monthly rainfall of 7.87". Hottest July ever was 1954 (average temperature of 84.0°) and wettest July ever was 1878 (9.43" of rain).
Weather records for Nashville began in 1871 and are recorded at the airport, so your specific location may have been hotter, cooler, wetter, or drier.
For #Crossville, July 2022 tied for the #12 hottest July ever with an average temperature of 75.9°, and was the #7 wettest July ever with 8.47" of rain. Hottest July ever in Crossville was 1993 (average temperature of 79.5°) and wettest July ever was 1967 (11.95" of rain).

From the NWS of Nashville

Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: joemomma on August 01, 2022, 09:37:23 AM
Sparta certainly ended up wet, that's for sure.  I don't have any numbers, but after the first part of the month was dry as a bone, it ended up wet.  We had several days of rain at the end.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: 82/83 El Nino baby on August 01, 2022, 12:03:40 PM
I'm about 35 miles due south of you and we ended up at 14 inches for the month. Four of those over the weekend.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Crockett on August 01, 2022, 12:31:34 PM
Between the excessive rainfall and all the humidity, everything is just a wet, moldy mess right now. I could do with a few weeks of dry weather.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2022, 07:59:48 PM
Truly a month of extremes this was! Who would have thought a persistently hot and dry month would have turned into such a soaker for so many in the state.

KBNA didn't hit 100 in July, but it had 13 days of temperatures at or above 95F, with two instances of 99F. It stayed persistently hot this month with temperatures above average every day except July 18 and 28-31. 26/31 days at or above average (or at or above 90F).  ::blowtorch:: Second hottest July on record. (#1 was 1954; the early 50s had some miserable summers)
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Curt on August 01, 2022, 08:10:14 PM
KMEM had an avg if 87.1 for the month with 97 and 77 as the average hi/ low. It was on pace with July 1980 until the heavy rain mid month, then lost ground albeit hot. Ended up with over 4 inches of rain which mostly came in 2 days. Yesterday’s rain was exactly what we needed- steady for hours. I have a feeling we have now peaked on the heat and will have normal summer temps when a couple days here and there in the upper 90’s but nothing like it was. KMEM has tied 1952 for the most days over 100- and it might end there.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: schneitzeit on August 01, 2022, 08:17:20 PM
Good Lord... mean temp of 87. That's pretty hot. I might guess you're ready for it to cool down a little?
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on August 02, 2022, 07:02:36 AM
KMEM had an avg if 87.1 for the month with 97 and 77 as the average hi/ low. It was on pace with July 1980 until the heavy rain mid month, then lost ground albeit hot. Ended up with over 4 inches of rain which mostly came in 2 days. Yesterday’s rain was exactly what we needed- steady for hours. I have a feeling we have now peaked on the heat and will have normal summer temps when a couple days here and there in the upper 90’s but nothing like it was. KMEM has tied 1952 for the most days over 100- and it might end there.
It still could happen but I dont think people realize how hot 1980 was and how hard that record is to break. As a youngster growing up in the country with nothing to do but play outside I think 1980 is the reason I hate stupid hot summers.
Title: Re: July 2022 (For those who like it hot)
Post by: Bruce on August 02, 2022, 08:10:55 AM
It still could happen but I dont think people realize how hot 1980 was and how hard that record is to break. As a youngster growing up in the country with nothing to do but play outside I think 1980 is the reason I hate stupid hot summers.
I couldn’t tell much difference in usual summer be honest … I played baseball that whole summer with travel team .