Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Monthly Discussions and General Weather => Topic started by: Curt on October 01, 2021, 04:26:25 PM

Title: October 2021
Post by: Curt on October 01, 2021, 04:26:25 PM
Get it.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 02, 2021, 06:29:09 AM
The 8-14 (and possibly a bit beyond) is a butt ugly pattern if you want nice crisp fall weather.

The only silver lining is it looks to provide relief from drought-stricken areas like the Northern Plains through the Northern Rockies/Pacfic Northwest.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a severe weather/tornado threat set up in the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest region (think like Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and perhaps as far south as northern Missouri) by mid-month due to the analog set.   
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 02, 2021, 10:00:11 PM
Another wet week upcoming for the eastern half of the state. Looks like most of eastern TN will get the entire month’s rainfall average in the next 7 days. I’ve done such a small amount of watering over the last few years that I’m not even sure my sprinkler works anymore.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: snowdog on October 03, 2021, 09:36:18 AM
10 day Euro, not a decent cool front in sight. Going to be another of those years where we go from summer to winter?
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Bruce on October 03, 2021, 09:53:02 AM
10 day Euro, not a decent cool front in sight. Going to be another of those years where we go from summer to winter?
or go from a late summer to mild fall pattern… time will tell .  Solid negative pna pattern on eps latest
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 04, 2021, 07:03:14 AM
- PNA, Gulf of Alaska Low, and that darn stupid ugly island high pressure off the west coast of Alaska. 

The good thing is that it looks to provide some very much-needed relief for the Pacific Northwest.

The bad thing is well October looks lost.  Long-range models show a crash into winter by early November meaning a flash fall as far as fall colors go.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 04, 2021, 09:53:41 AM
Forecast for anywhere east of the Rockies this month:


 ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Bruce on October 04, 2021, 10:52:09 AM
Forecast for anywhere east of the Rockies this month:


 ::blowtorch::
yeah, if your looking for classic cool fall weather October won’t be it. Stick fork in that. Not going happen , now as this month creeps on forward , long range models are starting hint at the jet stream pushing bit ever more southward , may just start to get some interesting weather later this month , likely heading towards are first classic fall severe weather chance ….
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 04, 2021, 10:57:01 AM
Top October analogs for this pattern include:

1994
1998
2005
2007

This may be a time where Bruce's severe weather doom predictions are proven right. Whether we have an active severe weather season in Late October-November is going to obviously depend on other more specific details, but the overall pattern and pattern evolution does support a higher than normal chance of it occurring. 
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 04, 2021, 10:59:14 AM
yeah, if your looking for classic cool fall weather October won’t be it. Stick fork in that. Not going happen , now as this month creeps on forward , long range models are starting hint at the jet stream pushing bit ever more southward , may just start to get some interesting weather later this month , likely heading towards are first classic fall severe weather chance ….

I wouldn't be surprised to see a very rare/potentially historic chance of severe weather/tornadoes in areas that just don't see it in October.  I'm talking about areas like the Dakotas/Minnesota/perhaps into adjacent parts of Wisconsin and Iowa.   
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Matthew on October 04, 2021, 11:05:15 AM
If one thing we all should have learned the last few years.  Don’t believe long range models.  Seems not to long ago it was supposed to be an historic active spring.  Average temp is around 80.  If stay around that temp with some rain I’m good with that. Severe wx can just stay non existent.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 04, 2021, 01:21:14 PM
I'm a little surprised to see that MRX has opted not to add the southern valley to the CWA-wide flood watches issued by HUN and FFC. It certainly looks to me like 3-5" of rain is happening in the next 2 days. Maybe the night shift will issue one.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on October 04, 2021, 03:40:29 PM
I think sometimes MRX forgets the Chattanooga metro is even within their coverage area.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 04, 2021, 07:17:52 PM
I think sometimes MRX forgets the Chattanooga metro is even within their coverage area.
Someone more knowledgeable can intervene if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure we used to have our own NWS forecast office in Chattanooga. When HUN was created, our office was closed and the remnants were split between FFC and MRX.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on October 04, 2021, 07:58:53 PM
I'll google around for that.. but I think maybe you're right. I just know that during winter events, I see places like Dalton or Jackson Co. Ala getting winter storm warnings, while MRX is slow to pull the trigger. Feb '14, and '15 come to mind.... also, morning of Feb 8, 2020 should have met winter storm criteria (is it four or six inches in 12 hours?) as well. Anyway, for Metro Chattanooga, 4 inches in a short time is a 'Winter Storm' in my book, even if the temps are 33 and marginal.. :)  I had to drive to work in that little sneaky beast of a snow event and it was so dangerous. I think there might have been a late WWA for that from MRX..
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 05, 2021, 06:16:18 PM
Oh look- a TOR.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
555 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Lewis County in Middle Tennessee...
  Northeastern Wayne County in Middle Tennessee...
  Northwestern Lawrence County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 630 PM CDT.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 05, 2021, 06:20:24 PM
I'll google around for that.. but I think maybe you're right. I just know that during winter events, I see places like Dalton or Jackson Co. Ala getting winter storm warnings, while MRX is slow to pull the trigger. Feb '14, and '15 come to mind.... also, morning of Feb 8, 2020 should have met winter storm criteria (is it four or six inches in 12 hours?) as well. Anyway, for Metro Chattanooga, 4 inches in a short time is a 'Winter Storm' in my book, even if the temps are 33 and marginal.. :)  I had to drive to work in that little sneaky beast of a snow event and it was so dangerous. I think there might have been a late WWA for that from MRX..

I do really wish there was another NWS office that pretty much served the Chattanooga DMA.  I know that is a pipe dream due to funding and all but it will be very helpful and will help NWS Peachtree City as well. 

I also find it crazy that pretty much the entire state of Utah plus one county in SW Wyoming is served by NWS Salt Lake City.   
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: gcbama on October 05, 2021, 06:49:50 PM
Oh look- a TOR.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
555 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Lewis County in Middle Tennessee...
  Northeastern Wayne County in Middle Tennessee...
  Northwestern Lawrence County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 630 PM CDT.

I think we may see some flash flooding too in my area (lewis)
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 06, 2021, 05:23:53 AM
The NW will get a good dose of winter next week. No true cold air in sight for the Eastern U.S. and Canada through October. First frosts and freezes are running late.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Bruce on October 06, 2021, 03:02:09 PM
Tornado watch out for parts of southern middle Tennessee
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Jilly on October 06, 2021, 05:03:36 PM
Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
459 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

TNC007-062230-
/O.CON.KMRX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-211006T2230Z/
Bledsoe TN-
459 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL BLEDSOE COUNTY...

At 459 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles north of Pikeville, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
north central Bledsoe County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8526 3576 8526 3577 8525 3577 8510
      3576 8509 3576 8507 3577 8506 3566 8507
      3565 8521 3575 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 169DEG 24KT 3572 8515

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Diegan
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ohx&wwa=tornado%20warning
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Jilly on October 06, 2021, 05:19:41 PM
Quote
Tornado Warning
TNC035-062245-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0035.211006T2209Z-211006T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
509 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Cumberland County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 508 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 11 miles northeast of Pikeville, moving north at 25
  mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Crossville around 545 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lake
Tansi, Cumberland Mountain State Park, Pleasant Hill and Indian Rock
Lake.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 319 and 323.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8502 3575 8503 3576 8503 3577 8504
      3577 8506 3576 8507 3577 8510 3577 8517
      3599 8522 3599 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 180DEG 21KT 3576 8512

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

Shamburger
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ohx&wwa=tornado%20warning
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Jilly on October 06, 2021, 05:39:55 PM
Quote
Tornado Watch
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 513
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 PM CDT WED OCT 6 2021

TNC035-041-141-185-070300-
/O.EXA.KOHX.TO.A.0513.000000T0000Z-211007T0300Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 513 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING

IN TENNESSEE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

CUMBERLAND            DE KALB               PUTNAM
WHITE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF COOKEVILLE, CROSSVILLE, SMITHVILLE,
AND SPARTA.

$$


Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Jilly on October 06, 2021, 05:51:42 PM
Crossville tornado warning Extended until 6:15 p.m.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Jilly on October 06, 2021, 05:54:14 PM
NWS OHX said radar scan rotation has tightened (NW side of Crossville)
MTEARS ham network is up - heard it on there
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Jilly on October 06, 2021, 06:26:50 PM
Quote
Message:   NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TN1261BDD8D5C0.TornadoWarning.1261BDD8DF84TN.OHXTOROHX.2a09a7d952248b3626c4e2d14d443d61 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent:   18:20 CDT on 10-06-2021
Effective:   18:20 CDT on 10-06-2021
Expires:   18:45 CDT on 10-06-2021
Event:   Tornado Warning
Alert:   
The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a
 
* Tornado Warning for...
North central Cumberland County in Middle Tennessee...
Southwestern Fentress County in Middle Tennessee...
 
* Until 645 PM CDT.
 
* At 620 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located 11 miles north of Crossville, or near
Rinnie, moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
damage is likely.
 
* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
north central Cumberland and southwestern Fentress Counties,
including the following locations... Grimsley and Clarkrange.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
Instructions:   TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Target Area:   
Cumberland
Fentress


Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Jilly on October 06, 2021, 07:22:13 PM
Quote
Event:   Tornado Warning
Alert:   
The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a
 
* Tornado Warning for...
North central Fentress County in Middle Tennessee...
 
* Until 745 PM CDT.
 
* At 713 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located just south of Jamestown, moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
damage is likely.
 
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Jamestown around 725 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Allardt.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
Instructions:   TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Target Area:   
Fentress


Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 06, 2021, 07:45:17 PM
There was some damage reported north of Crossville from the Northern Fentress County storm.   
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: 82/83 El Nino baby on October 06, 2021, 09:24:56 PM
A total deluge today. Sitting st 6.75 for the day and it's still raining.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 06, 2021, 09:32:07 PM
A total deluge today. Sitting st 6.75 for the day and it's still raining.

Welcome to Tennessee!

 ::drowning::
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 06, 2021, 09:53:25 PM
HTX radar just had to rescale storm total qpf due to the storms just south of Huntsville. Looks like 11”+ and it’s still pouring there. Meanwhile we have happily busted way low on this side of town. Not even an inch so far.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on October 06, 2021, 10:20:47 PM
Worse in Red Bank... but still no where near as bad as Alabama and Dunlap area.. hopefully we miss the worst of it overnight.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Bruce on October 07, 2021, 05:02:58 PM
We are going get mighty close if not hit 90 Saturday through Monday … ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2021, 05:57:32 PM
EF-1 tornado confirmed north of Crossville from last nights storms. 
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Matthew on October 07, 2021, 06:44:58 PM
We are going get mighty close if not hit 90 Saturday through Monday … ::blowtorch::

As much as you like heat.  You should move to AZ.  So mid 80’s is 90? 🤷🏻‍♂️
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 07, 2021, 06:51:20 PM
There is a pretty potent signal for a Wasatch Range snowstorm next week.  That would also impact adjacent parts of CO/WY as well.  Getting those mountains primed for winter and boy does that region need that precipitation.   
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: snowdog on October 07, 2021, 06:57:04 PM
Taking the family out to AZ and UT next week. Going to hit some National Parks and do some hiking. Looks like it should be pretty cool. Looking forward to some crisp fall temps.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: gcbama on October 07, 2021, 07:01:09 PM
Taking the family out to AZ and UT next week. Going to hit some National Parks and do some hiking. Looks like it should be pretty cool. Looking forward to some crisp fall temps.

Thats my dream trip, utah looks other worldly landscape wise , ENJOY!!!!
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Bruce on October 07, 2021, 07:15:40 PM
There is a pretty potent signal for a Wasatch Range snowstorm next week.  That would also impact adjacent parts of CO/WY as well.  Getting those mountains primed for winter and boy does that region need that precipitation.
that’s the system that has parts Oklahoma already 30 percent severe risk sunday ..  as these systems come effect the Rockies we have start paying attention to the severe wx side of these potent systems .
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Matthew on October 07, 2021, 08:10:44 PM
Taking the family out to AZ and UT next week. Going to hit some National Parks and do some hiking. Looks like it should be pretty cool. Looking forward to some crisp fall temps.

I hope if my health allows me to.  Taking the family to Yellowstone and Grand Canyon next year. 
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: snowdog on October 07, 2021, 10:41:13 PM
Thats my dream trip, utah looks other worldly landscape wise , ENJOY!!!!

Thanks, looking forward to it. Hitting Saguaro, Sedona and Grand Canyon in AZ. Then heading up to Zion, Bryce Canyon, Canyon Lands and Arches before,finishing up in Salt Lake. Wanted to do Yellowstone, but just not enough time. May hit that next year witha few others further north.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on October 08, 2021, 07:49:41 AM
Thanks, looking forward to it. Hitting Saguaro, Sedona and Grand Canyon in AZ. Then heading up to Zion, Bryce Canyon, Canyon Lands and Arches before,finishing up in Salt Lake. Wanted to do Yellowstone, but just not enough time. May hit that next year witha few others further north.
Either that or Yosemite will be my next trip out west. We did our Yellowstone trip a few years ago out of Calgary. This let us hit up Banff and Glacier on the way. Both are not to be missed if you are trying to visit that area.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: snowdog on October 08, 2021, 10:09:44 AM
Either that or Yosemite will be my next trip out west. We did our Yellowstone trip a few years ago out of Calgary. This let us hit up Banff and Glacier on the way. Both are not to be missed if you are trying to visit that area.

I have a buddy who loves Banff. Goes there quite often to ski.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 08, 2021, 11:32:43 AM
Thanks, looking forward to it. Hitting Saguaro, Sedona and Grand Canyon in AZ. Then heading up to Zion, Bryce Canyon, Canyon Lands and Arches before,finishing up in Salt Lake. Wanted to do Yellowstone, but just not enough time. May hit that next year witha few others further north.

The Cottonwood Canyons just east of Salt Lake City are pretty nice as well if time allows.  They should have some snow action this week as well.   
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 08, 2021, 05:40:17 PM
BN west, AN east. Can't get too much more descriptive than that.

First big snowstorm of the year for Wyoming and company.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2021, 10:06:19 AM
Potential outbreak for the Southern Plains into the Ouachita region today and a rare/potentially historic tornado risk for Northern Minnesota/Southern Canada for this late in the year. 
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: gcbama on October 10, 2021, 04:42:11 PM
interesting how a tornado watch with all teh parameters ( other than hail) are in the high category is not a PDS....i never can figure out how they decide pds....
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 10, 2021, 07:10:04 PM
It looks like we are about to get a serial derecho going in Central Oklahoma and moving through TX, East OK, and even into the Ozarks. 
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 13, 2021, 05:22:05 AM
Temperatures have trended cooler for the weekend. Highs mid 60s now forecast for Saturday with overnight lows into the low 40s. OHX says upper 30s are possible for the plateau in this morning’s AFD.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Bruce on October 13, 2021, 07:56:49 AM
Temperatures have trended cooler for the weekend. Highs mid 60s now forecast for Saturday with overnight lows into the low 40s. OHX says upper 30s are possible for the plateau in this morning’s AFD.
looks to be quick recovery after this weekend . The weekend going feel more fall like. But signs heading into November  indicate temps staying above average …
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on October 13, 2021, 09:54:35 AM
Can anyone tell me what colors are like in the Smokies right now?
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 13, 2021, 11:23:49 AM
looks to be quick recovery after this weekend.

It's the kind of moderation we typically see in the days after a cooldown, as in back into the 70s next week. But, I'm already seeing a similar cooldown the following weekend on some extended forecasts. It's conceivable we flirt with 80 degrees again (that would be a normal kind of thing we would see in October anyway), but I'm not sure we see 85 again until the spring. I could be wrong. I suspect it may be a while before we see the warmth we've experienced over the last few days.

I don't have much confidence in super long range forecasts weeks in advance. We'll see what's in store for November once November rolls around.  ;)
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: DocB on October 13, 2021, 12:38:18 PM
Can anyone tell me what colors are like in the Smokies right now?
Live cams for Great Smoky Mtn Nat Park (https://www.nps.gov/grsm/learn/photosmultimedia/webcams.htm)
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Bruce on October 13, 2021, 01:13:51 PM
It's the kind of moderation we typically see in the days after a cooldown, as in back into the 70s next week. But, I'm already seeing a similar cooldown the following weekend on some extended forecasts. It's conceivable we flirt with 80 degrees again (that would be a normal kind of thing we would see in October anyway), but I'm not sure we see 85 again until the spring. I could be wrong. I suspect it may be a while before we see the warmth we've experienced over the last few days.

I don't have much confidence in super long range forecasts weeks in advance. We'll see what's in store for November once November rolls around.  ;)
just not seeing anyway much way  to get any true artic air  down here in our neck of the woods next 30 days or so … which temps look stay above seasonal average s. Going into next month.I sure would hope the 85 or higher degree  days are over this season, we are going November soon.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 13, 2021, 01:34:28 PM
just not seeing anyway much way  to get any true artic air  down here in our neck of the woods next 30 days or so … which temps look stay above seasonal average s. Going into next month.I sure would hope the 85 or higher degree  days are over this season, we are going November soon.

I'm not seeing anything either. The Eastern U.S. will cool down this Sunday and Monday, but as you said, there's no foreseeable chance for an Arctic airmass to come south while Canada is so warm. The latest run of the GFS shows many temperatures above freezing north of the Arctic Circle. That's pretty toasty for mid October.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 13, 2021, 01:40:50 PM
just not seeing anyway much way  to get any true artic air  down here in our neck of the woods next 30 days or so …

I wouldn't really want or expect true Arctic air this early anyway. That can hold off till December.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Bruce on October 14, 2021, 08:46:26 AM
Slight risk out tomorrow for big chunk of west tn parts middle Tennessee… wind damage main threat. But tornado risk not completely zero…
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: gcbama on October 15, 2021, 09:17:59 AM
never know with these fall systems, we are getting close to our fall tornado season so wouldn't be shocked to see one or two today
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Matthew on October 15, 2021, 10:00:00 AM
Looks like the risk did not pan out which I’m just fine with. Even the rain seems to be Ho hum. 
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Vols1 on October 15, 2021, 10:11:58 AM
I think the threat is for this afternoon Matthew
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Bruce on October 15, 2021, 10:42:48 AM
I think the threat is for this afternoon Matthew
correct. Sir
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Eric on October 15, 2021, 11:00:06 AM
Yes...this afternoon into this evening.

Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Matthew on October 15, 2021, 01:19:59 PM
My bad.  I see radar lighting up with showers and storms in west TN. 
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: wmp600 on October 15, 2021, 01:30:59 PM
My bad.  I see radar lighting up with showers and storms in west TN.
Severe thunderstorm watch until 8pm for all west Tennessee & much of Arkansas.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 15, 2021, 05:00:09 PM
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
455 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
  North central Tipton County in western Tennessee...
  Lauderdale County in western Tennessee...

* Until 530 PM CDT.
   
* At 455 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was
  located over Keiser, moving east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Luxora, Fort Pillow State Park and Fulton around 505 PM CDT.
Quote
  Ashport around 510 PM CDT.
  Ft Pillow around 515 PM CDT.
  Ripley around 530 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Edith,
Eastview, Dryhill, Driver, O'Donnell Bend, Grider, Tomato, Rosa,
Carson Lake and Luckett.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on October 15, 2021, 06:06:35 PM
Nice storms forming from moist basement air.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: JayCee on October 15, 2021, 06:10:36 PM
After today's muggy 81, I'm looking forward to tomorrow's 63 with a blustery north wind. 
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 15, 2021, 09:08:08 PM
After today's muggy 81, I'm looking forward to tomorrow's 63 with a blustery north wind.
It’s coming. About 25 sustained here with heavy driving drizzle. It’s wonderful.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Clint on October 16, 2021, 07:43:17 AM
Temperature behind this cold front are nice and crisp this morning.

(https://i.imgur.com/3QLfmeh.jpg)
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on October 16, 2021, 09:29:59 AM
A crisp 46 this morning. Gonna be hard to top this week weather wise.
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: gcbama on October 16, 2021, 11:09:40 AM
HELLO FALL, you are about 3 weeks late :)
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: StormNine on October 16, 2021, 11:12:40 AM
https://www.facebook.com/OhioStormChasers/photos/pcb.4374443972609472/4374443609276175

A surprise localized tornado event occurred in Southern OH/Northern KY overnight.  This damage zone in Ohio looks particularly fierce. 
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: Bruce on October 16, 2021, 11:20:19 AM
https://www.facebook.com/OhioStormChasers/photos/pcb.4374443972609472/4374443609276175

A surprise localized tornado event occurred in Southern OH/Northern KY overnight.  This damage zone in Ohio looks particularly fierce.
think the severe weather threat going hav e to be watched from now through even winter with the bouncing around of temps . Moderate la
Nina to boot
Title: Re: October 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on October 16, 2021, 11:37:17 AM
Temperature behind this cold front are nice and crisp this morning.

(https://i.imgur.com/3QLfmeh.jpg)

It's pushing through here now. Highs are only going to top out at 53F on Monday.  8)

Lows are still in the 50s and upper 40s because Lake Ontario is pretty warm. Y'all are getting some colder mornings than we are.