Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Monthly Discussions and General Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on January 27, 2021, 05:27:03 AM

Title: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 27, 2021, 05:27:03 AM
The long-range pattern is starting to resemble a pattern favorable for overrunning events during the first half of the month.  This likely will be our last window this winter minus a mid-March to April hail-mary as late Feb has a higher than normal chance to be a continent-wide blowtorch. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 27, 2021, 08:11:26 AM
The long-range pattern is starting to resemble a pattern favorable for overrunning events during the first half of the month.  This likely will be our last window this winter minus a mid-March to April hail-mary as late Feb has a higher than normal chance to be a continent-wide blowtorch.
yeah these next 3 weeks  or so can
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on January 27, 2021, 10:26:13 AM
0z EPS now has a full blown negative EPO while maintaining neg AO/NAO. PNA is slightly negative. Should have a fairly cold pattern coming up after the first few days of February.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 27, 2021, 08:10:33 PM
I viewed TWC's extended forecast for my area. I just had to laugh at this:

[attach=1]

A forecast for 3 to 5 inches, 9 days away. I know this is generated by an algorithm, but still. I think it would be wise to not include any forecast for specific accumulation amounts more than 5-7 days in advance. After a week, maximum, it should say, "accumulating snow possible."


Of course, Accuweather does that out to 90 days, but they've always been on crack over there.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on January 27, 2021, 11:56:47 PM
The 0Z GFS shows the coldest air of the season arriving between 2/5 thru 2/12.  If it verifies, our Winter weather chances increase significantly with this air mass over our region.

(https://i.imgur.com/5f5ZwTP.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Navywxman on January 28, 2021, 03:54:32 AM
The 0Z GFS shows the coldest air of the season arriving between 2/5 thru 2/12.  If it verifies, our Winter weather chances increase significantly with this air mass over our region.

(https://i.imgur.com/5f5ZwTP.png)
The CMC is a complete opposite of that. Given it's still beyond 7 days out, i wouldn't doubt if that extreme is backed off from.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on January 28, 2021, 09:37:21 AM
The NAO and AO looks to hit perhaps record negative levels over the next 2 weeks and beyond. EPO going to try and go negative as well. Not sure how much the PNA will cooperate but a little resistance isn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 28, 2021, 01:31:58 PM
We've seen this before but both the GFS and PGFS have all kind of potential in the long range.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 28, 2021, 01:37:29 PM
We've seen this before but both the GFS and PGFS have all kind of potential in the long range.
I like the fact that some of these good looks keep working closer in time. We'll see if it holds or if the rug gets pulled, but a period of favorable cold at least looks more and more likely.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021012812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_37.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: DocB on January 28, 2021, 01:48:48 PM
I like the fact that some of these good looks keep working closer in time. We'll see if it holds or if the rug gets pulled, but a period of favorable cold at least looks more and more likely.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021012812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_37.png)
9 days out + NW Trend = I'll take it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 28, 2021, 02:23:33 PM
Day 10 Euro has brutal cold to our NW. Talking -30 to -40F 2m temps up in northern Montana and just over the Canadian border. That is impressive cold. It will be interesting to watch what happens with all that cold over the next few days. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 28, 2021, 02:25:32 PM
Day 10 Euro has brutal cold to our NW. Talking -30 to -40F 2m temps up in northern Montana and just over the Canadian border. That is impressive cold. It will be interesting to watch what happens with all that cold over the next few days.

Thank goodness. They are way overdue for a cold spell like that. Eastern MT and Alberta have torched all winter.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 28, 2021, 02:39:11 PM
Day 10 Euro has brutal cold to our NW. Talking -30 to -40F 2m temps up in northern Montana and just over the Canadian border. That is impressive cold. It will be interesting to watch what happens with all that cold over the next few days.
also day 10 euro starting pop up little se ridge . Interesting indeed. Could be nice battle zone setting up. Wouldn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on January 28, 2021, 02:43:56 PM
Day 10 Euro has brutal cold to our NW. Talking -30 to -40F 2m temps up in northern Montana and just over the Canadian border. That is impressive cold. It will be interesting to watch what happens with all that cold over the next few days.
Pretty much all teleconnections on the 12z EPS are favorable for an huge arctic intrusion except the PNA which is highly unfavorable. It really tries to push southeast but just can
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 28, 2021, 02:49:49 PM
It will be interesting to see if we finally get a true cold shot. I do think in early  February to Mid February seems to be our best last chance to see a week or 2 window on good winter weather. It would be nice to at least get one good to great winter weather event between now and mid february. If we somehow manage multiple good events I would be happy and wouldn't care if the rest of february and march went warm. It would send me into mowing season happy. Also in closing, I was watching the Tennessee mens basketball game against Mississippi State the other night and they mentioned that 1/3 of all meteorologist come from Mississippi State. I never knew that, it's pretty wild if you think about it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on January 28, 2021, 02:55:19 PM
The PNA strength will ultimately determine where the battleground is. There will almost certainly be ice and snow somewhere with this pattern. The SE portions - further SE than here- are most at risk of not getting cold. We are too if the PNA can
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Volduff64 on January 28, 2021, 05:00:54 PM
It will be interesting to see if we finally get a true cold shot. I do think in early  February to Mid February seems to be our best last chance to see a week or 2 window on good winter weather. It would be nice to at least get one good to great winter weather event between now and mid february. If we somehow manage multiple good events I would be happy and wouldn't care if the rest of february and march went warm. It would send me into mowing season happy. Also in closing, I was watching the Tennessee mens basketball game against Mississippi State the other night and they mentioned that 1/3 of all meteorologist come from Mississippi State. I never knew that, it's pretty wild if you think about it.

The rest of them come mainly from Oklahoma and penn st.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 28, 2021, 06:54:05 PM
The PNA strength will ultimately determine where the battleground is. There will almost certainly be ice and snow somewhere with this pattern. The SE portions - further SE than here- are most at risk of not getting cold. We are too if the PNA can
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 28, 2021, 07:02:11 PM
I know the pna isnt favorable for us, but you would think the epo, nao, and ao could trump the unfavorable pna.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 28, 2021, 07:11:52 PM
I would think with all the other connections going in the right direction that even a slightly positive or maybe even neutral would be enough for us.  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 28, 2021, 07:17:19 PM
I would think with all the other connections going in the right direction that even a slightly positive or maybe even neutral would be enough for us.  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
I agree. We prefer it not too negative, if possible.  ::pondering::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 29, 2021, 03:44:16 AM
I like I-44 to score in this upcoming pattern a lot.  Finally getting the cold air and the ridging should favor tracks that go over SE Missouri/Western KY.   

Sadly for us not so much unless the PNA gets more neutral or we can beat down the ridge enough to allow for an APP runner.

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 29, 2021, 06:31:31 AM
I like I-44 to score in this upcoming pattern a lot.  Finally getting the cold air and the ridging should favor tracks that go over SE Missouri/Western KY.   

Sadly for us not so much unless the PNA gets more neutral or we can beat down the ridge enough to allow for an APP runner.
what i was afraid of... if that scene plays out. Then I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on January 29, 2021, 07:46:12 AM
I like I-44 to score in this upcoming pattern a lot.  Finally getting the cold air and the ridging should favor tracks that go over SE Missouri/Western KY.   

Sadly for us not so much unless the PNA gets more neutral or we can beat down the ridge enough to allow for an APP runner.
I dunno. With near record AO and NAO coming up, now finally with a negative EPO the cold may just overwhelm the PNA. The latest EURO MJO is moving to 8. Last nights EURO control run of the EPS just plowed down with the massive HP like there was no tomorrow. If the HP is strong , it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 29, 2021, 09:13:48 AM
I dunno. With near record AO and NAO coming up, now finally with a negative EPO the cold may just overwhelm the PNA. The latest EURO MJO is moving to 8. Last nights EURO control run of the EPS just plowed down with the massive HP like there was no tomorrow. If the HP is strong , it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 29, 2021, 11:31:43 AM
appears the extended euro keeps dumping the cold out west, going be interesting if it can bleed east.

Classic phase 7 MJO in a Nina. If we can get it to progress into phase 8 that cold will dump on us and some long range models do that. Just have to watch this evolve over the next few days and hope we get into phase 8.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 29, 2021, 12:04:02 PM
Those in middle and east Tn might want to keep an eye on Tuesday. Both the CMC and NAM have accumulating snow.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 29, 2021, 12:08:14 PM
Those in middle and east Tn might want to keep an eye on Tuesday. Both the CMC and NAM have accumulating snow.

RGEM
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2021012912/rgem_asnow_seus_84.png)

12K NAM
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021012912/namconus_asnow_seus_29.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 29, 2021, 12:18:00 PM
All that snow out west makes me wish for a couple of 1-2 inch snows to sweep through just to mess with us, followed by a big whopper in late February that dumps 6-10" across the state, just when a lot of people are thinking winter is over.  >:D
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on January 29, 2021, 12:58:25 PM
Really fascinating storm for the Mid Atlantic coming up this weekend. The NAO block is going to keep a prolonged light to moderate snow event going for 48 hours in NYC with more than a foot. Central New Jersey might be the big winner here with 2 feet.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on January 29, 2021, 01:32:12 PM
Taking a look at past winter storms with a negative or strongly negative PNA, I found 13 winter storms over the 70 year period. All but one required a negative EPO, 5 had a negative AO, and 6 a negative NAO. 9/13 occurred in a La Nina, and 6/13 had a previous strat warm with most being a split vs displacement. MJO phases were variable but those in Feb were in the colder 7-2 regimes, while the later the storm into March occurred in warmer phases.

One exact match did fit what the upcoming pattern looks like ( -AO/-NAO/-EPO/-WPO/-PNA and a previous strat warm AND La Nina) which was the winter storm of January 30, 1985. The arctic front got stuck along the Plateau and stretched into central AL and southern MS. Here is the YouTube video from that period:

https://youtu.be/bBnzscR6q0Y

Other notable storms with a negative PNA:
- Memphis ice storm Jan 1950
- West and Middle/KY Ice and Snow Storm late Jan/early Feb 1951
- West TN ice storm Jan 1974
- Feb Ice Storm 1994 (this was was a weak negative PNA)
- December Ice Storm 1998

I'm not saying this will happen verbatim, but this is the kind of pattern that produces these major storms.

Edit: adjusted filter and found 20 winter storms over 70 year period with a negative or strongly negative PNA. 10/20 required a negative EPO, 10 had a negative AO, 11 had a negative NAO.


Other notables to add:

Jan 2009 Ice Storm in Arkansas and Ky (we ended up with an inch or 2 of snow here)- also a La Nina

Feb 28 2009- Huge ULL that dumped a foot in parts of West TN. Also a La Nina

March 2015- huge winter storm west and middle. El Nino year

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 29, 2021, 02:45:38 PM
Curt, that info you compiled is really going to come in handy in future winters. Really interesting to see how we've scored in similar set-ups. Really good stuff.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 29, 2021, 03:01:13 PM
Taking a look at past winter storms with a negative or strongly negative PNA, I found 13 winter storms over the 70 year period. All but one required a negative EPO, 5 had a negative AO, and 6 a negative NAO. 9/13 occurred in a La Nina, and 6/13 had a previous strat warm with most being a split vs displacement. MJO phases were variable but those in Feb were in the colder 7-2 regimes, while the later the storm into March occurred in warmer phases.

One exact match did fit what the upcoming pattern looks like ( -AO/-NAO/-EPO/-WPO/-PNA and a previous strat warm AND La Nina) which was the winter storm of January 30, 1985. The arctic front got stuck along the Plateau and stretched into central AL and southern MS. Here is the YouTube video from that period:

https://youtu.be/bBnzscR6q0Y

Other notable storms with a negative PNA:
- Memphis ice storm Jan 1950
- West and Middle/KY Ice and Snow Storm late Jan/early Feb 1951
- West TN ice storm Jan 1974
- Feb Ice Storm 1994 (this was was a weak negative PNA)
- December Ice Storm 1998

I'm not saying this will happen verbatim, but this is the kind of pattern that produces these major storms.

Edit: adjusted filter and found 20 winter storms over 70 year period with a negative or strongly negative PNA. 10/20 required a negative EPO, 10 had a negative AO, 11 had a negative NAO.


Other notables to add:

Jan 2009 Ice Storm in Arkansas and Ky (we ended up with an inch or 2 of snow here)- also a La Nina

Feb 28 2009- Huge ULL that dumped a foot in parts of West TN. Also a La Nina

March 2015- huge winter storm west and middle. El Nino year
i remember the 74 January ice storm really well... stayed below freezing for days ... also was topped off with 4 inches snow on top the ice
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 29, 2021, 04:47:25 PM
January 1974 is on the CPC Pattern Analog list.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 29, 2021, 04:59:00 PM
 ::coffee::
January 1974 is on the CPC Pattern Analog list.
::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on January 29, 2021, 05:19:00 PM
Curt, that info you compiled is really going to come in handy in future winters. Really interesting to see how we've scored in similar set-ups. Really good stuff.

Thanks. Its really hard to tell how common this teleconnection set up is to begin with. It could be a fairly rare pattern that scores often when it happens or it could be more common- that part I don't know since I just researched the winter storms themselves. I would be willing to bet that negative PNA's occur more often in La Nina than El Nino but that's my educated guess.

I think its safe to say that its more common in a La Nina winter than not and that to get a winter storm in a negative PNA does need a negative EPO- or at least its beneficial. In this set up, having a severely negative AO and NAO should help increase chances but as always nothing is a certainty. The common theme with most of these winter storms is multiple precip types and overrunning.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 29, 2021, 07:44:27 PM
This image is from Kyle Macritchie. His opinion on the mjo.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on January 29, 2021, 07:58:15 PM
Thanks. Its really hard to tell how common this teleconnection set up is to begin with. It could be a fairly rare pattern that scores often when it happens or it could be more common- that part I don't know since I just researched the winter storms themselves. I would be willing to bet that negative PNA's occur more often in La Nina than El Nino but that's my educated guess.

I think its safe to say that its more common in a La Nina winter than not and that to get a winter storm in a negative PNA does need a negative EPO- or at least its beneficial. In this set up, having a severely negative AO and NAO should help increase chances but as always nothing is a certainty. The common theme with most of these winter storms is multiple precip types and overrunning.

Curt, I do appreciate the time you take to examine past weather patterns and other things to give us your opinions and thoughts
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on January 30, 2021, 12:22:21 AM
Taking a look at past winter storms with a negative or strongly negative PNA, I found 13 winter storms over the 70 year period. All but one required a negative EPO, 5 had a negative AO, and 6 a negative NAO. 9/13 occurred in a La Nina, and 6/13 had a previous strat warm with most being a split vs displacement. MJO phases were variable but those in Feb were in the colder 7-2 regimes, while the later the storm into March occurred in warmer phases.

One exact match did fit what the upcoming pattern looks like ( -AO/-NAO/-EPO/-WPO/-PNA and a previous strat warm AND La Nina) which was the winter storm of January 30, 1985. The arctic front got stuck along the Plateau and stretched into central AL and southern MS. Here is the YouTube video from that period:

https://youtu.be/bBnzscR6q0Y

Other notable storms with a negative PNA:
- Memphis ice storm Jan 1950
- West and Middle/KY Ice and Snow Storm late Jan/early Feb 1951
- West TN ice storm Jan 1974
- Feb Ice Storm 1994 (this was was a weak negative PNA)
- December Ice Storm 1998

I'm not saying this will happen verbatim, but this is the kind of pattern that produces these major storms.

Edit: adjusted filter and found 20 winter storms over 70 year period with a negative or strongly negative PNA. 10/20 required a negative EPO, 10 had a negative AO, 11 had a negative NAO.


Other notables to add:

Jan 2009 Ice Storm in Arkansas and Ky (we ended up with an inch or 2 of snow here)- also a La Nina

Feb 28 2009- Huge ULL that dumped a foot in parts of West TN. Also a La Nina

March 2015- huge winter storm west and middle. El Nino year

The teleconnections still look icey to me.  That is if they verify.  Things seems to running at least a week behind of forecast at this point.  I completely agree to your analogs.  We can of course get snow out of it too if the cold air is deep enough.

Also, Those of us on the western side of the state tend to forget whats good for the east coast isn't good for us. TN is a very long state and of course east coast gets all the attention on major weather blogs/tweets/etc.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on January 30, 2021, 12:51:58 AM
The Jan 2/3, 1974 ice storm was a memorable event. I was eleven years old in the 5th grade and remembered how beautiful the landscape looked after the storm. It looked like a winter wonderland.

This was one of the best sledding events I can remember. We had about  2.0" of ice followed with 2" of snow. The total QPF of 1.37" all occurred with 2m temps in the twenties. Below is the 'now data' for the event for Memphis.

(https://i.imgur.com/okCu3mv.png)



Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 30, 2021, 02:05:48 AM
The Jan 2/3, 1974 ice storm was a memorable event. I was eleven years old in the 5th grade and remembered how beautiful the landscape looked after the storm. It looked like a winter wonderland.

This was one of the best sledding events I can remember. We had about  2.0" of ice followed with 2" of snow. The total QPF of 1.37" all occurred with 2m temps in the twenties. Below is the 'now data' for the event for Memphis.

(https://i.imgur.com/okCu3mv.png)
wow Clint we are the same age lol... yes it was a winter storm to remember. We had 4 inches snow on top all that ice
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 30, 2021, 10:52:33 AM
If things could fall right in the middle of what the GFS and CMC are showing for February 5th we would be in business.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 30, 2021, 11:53:12 AM
[attachimg=1]

La-Nina, -PNA, at least neutral if not -NAO, SE Ridge presence, that is what I am thinking through at least the next 21 days. We will probably quickly moderate by the last few days of the upcoming month and head into spring once we eventually lose the -NAO and/or go into unfavorable MJO phases.   

With the light blue being above average winter zones and the dark blue looking to have a Top 25 maybe even locally a Top 10 February snow wise.  Curt's research has shown that ice could be an issue for western/northwestern areas.  If the PNA goes more neutral then we could see these zones shift further southeast.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 30, 2021, 11:57:32 AM
One thing seems certain ... think our boring weather is fixing come to a end finally . Going from potential winter storm threat of some sort to roll into severe wx season little down the road .
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on January 30, 2021, 12:21:27 PM
We just had a quick burst of moderate sleet with a temperature of 50F.  I witnessed this only once before ... one March afternoon in a Chattanooga hotel parking lot a few years ago.  Amazing what dry air can do.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 30, 2021, 01:03:24 PM
Euro looks icy for NW Tn on the February 5 storm.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 30, 2021, 01:16:42 PM
(Attachment Link)

La-Nina, -PNA, at least neutral if not -NAO, SE Ridge presence, that is what I am thinking through at least the next 21 days. We will probably quickly moderate by the last few days of the upcoming month and head into spring once we eventually lose the -NAO and/or go into unfavorable MJO phases.   

With the light blue being above average winter zones and the dark blue looking to have a Top 25 maybe even locally a Top 10 February snow wise.  Curt's research has shown that ice could be an issue for western/northwestern areas.  If the PNA goes more neutral then we could see these zones shift further southeast.

Nice! Shift all that about 200 miles southeast if we can get just a smidge of help from the PNA.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 30, 2021, 01:31:23 PM
First time this year I have seen the GEFS EN paint so much mixed precip over the area in the medium range. Its honestly screaming that something is going to come from that SW flow pattern with plenty of cold air to the North with recent storm occuring as we speak. Next Friday through Monday a overrunning setup could come to fruit. I am started to get excited this far out if this type of pattern comes to play.  ::flag:: ::flag:: ::bacon:: ::bacon:: ::bacon:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::guitar::

* Add the Canadian Ens to the game.

Oh Buy AMC , GME please :)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on January 30, 2021, 02:47:33 PM
 GEFS snow mean through Feb, 15.

(https://i.imgur.com/ZnCOq8z.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on January 30, 2021, 02:50:00 PM
GEFS snow mean through Feb, 15.

That's looking much better than just a couple of days ago.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 30, 2021, 02:52:16 PM
That is incredibly stout for a mean. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 30, 2021, 03:01:38 PM
The Euro would be an event for KY/NW TN on Friday the 5th.  The GFS would be the Groundhog Day I-44 Blizzard Part II.   Both are trending colder and towards a stronger -NAO in the mid-range.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Susan on January 30, 2021, 05:16:57 PM
Quote
National Weather Service Nashville TN
234 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Interesting and somewhat complex forecast for the short term. At
the current hour, we continue to get some sleet reports mixed in
with the rain that has moved off to the northeast. Despite low-
level dryness, freezing temps aloft combined with rather low
wetbulb temps have let some sleet make it to the surface. However,
surface temps remain too warm for there to be any impacts from
this and sleet will melt immediately on impact with the ground.

Heavier showers are still on track to begin to move into our
western counties in the evening, tracking eastward through the
overnight hours. From 6 PM this evening through noon tomorrow, the
majority of the area will see around 1/2" of prcp with locally
higher and lower amounts possible. Some CAMs do bring a little bit
of instability this evening across Middle TN, but it will be so
little and widespread that not expecting widespread thunderstorms
from this. Still could hear a clap or two of thunder, otherwise
just heavy rainfall at times is expected. Another big storyline
tonight will be our wind. Winds have continued to climb this
afternoon and are expected to peak this evening into the overnight
hours. Sustained winds upwards of 30 mph will be possible with
some gusts around 40 mph possible, especially along the I-65
corridor and higher elevations.

Forecast becomes even more interesting tomorrow and Monday with
the eventual track of the upper-level low as it moves eastward.
Models continue to support a rather deep trough digging into the
eastern half of the U.S. Sunday into Monday with Middle TN right
along the gradient. Additionally, models continue to show moisture
wrapping behind the low Sunday and Monday. Temps will be in the
50s tomorrow, so nothing more than some light showers and drizzle
is probable under cloudy conditions. Temps will begin to drop
rapidly Sunday evening and overnight Monday after a frontal
passage, introducing the potential for some snow in the mix.
Models are beginning to show our area cooling more rapidly, and
with the increase in moisture and it lingering into Monday, some
accumulating snowfall potential is possible. Still some questions
with how much moisture will be available and how quickly we will
cool, but models do appear to be trending upwards in the realm of
wintery weather Monday. Have increased the potential snowfall
amounts this forecast cycle to reflect these changes with the
Upper Cumberland region seeing 1 to 2 inches and those west of
the Upper Cumberland seeing anywhere from a dusting to 1/2 an
inch. Expect for there to be updates over the next 24-36 hours as
this forecast evolves. If models continue this trend, could get
some more confidence with this, but since this is still a
relatively new idea confidence is not high at the moment
. Highs
will be a little warmer tomorrow with widespread highs in the 50s.
Things will be much cooler on Monday with highs struggling to
leave the 30s.

Any lingering moisture will begin to drift eastward on Tuesday
with cloud coverage thinning through the day. Things will likely
still be on the chillier side with highs in the 30s along the
Plateau and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Warming temps and dry
conditions are anticipated Wednesday as an weak upper-level ridge
begins to move over the area. Things continue to be unsettled
Thursday through next weekend with an upper-level low moving
across the eastern half of the U.S. There are significant timing
and location differences between most global models. Carrying
slight chance to chance pops for much of Thursday through at least
Saturday to reflect this uncertainty. Hoping to have a better
idea and establish more confidence in the forecast if models can
come to better agreement on the timing and location of things.
Highs appear to stay in the 50s through the second half of next
week.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on January 30, 2021, 06:29:03 PM
A couple more days in and it looks like the split flow will finally setup and there is enough cold air to seep into the lower levels from the north and west.  Someone to the north is going to get some nice snow but I don't see Memphis getting in on that at this point.  My guess is just south to along i44 will be jackpot area for some good snows.  There will be a zone of ice, potentially significant to the south.  It looks rather ominous to me, but then again I have been harping ice for the past 2 weeks so I'm probably wrong.  Of course, like all these things, someone will be getting the rain and 33 degrees.  ::whistling::  Though I suppose some may prefer that over ZR.  Like Curt pointed out though, the analogs are practically screaming at us.

Lets just say there is exponentially more potential in the next few weeks as there was in the past 3 winters for the midsouth.  The problem is it may not be snow, but there is still better chances versus past winters.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 30, 2021, 06:42:18 PM
A couple more days in and it looks like the split flow will finally setup and there is enough cold air to seep into the lower levels from the north and west.  Someone to the north is going to get some nice snow but I don't see Memphis getting in on that at this point.  My guess is just south to along i44 will be jackpot area for some good snows.  There will be a zone of ice, potentially significant to the south.  It looks rather ominous to me, but then again I have been harping ice for the past 2 weeks so I'm probably wrong.  Of course, like all these things, someone will be getting the rain and 33 degrees.  ::whistling::  Though I suppose some may prefer that over ZR.  Like Curt pointed out though, the analogs are practically screaming at us.

Lets just say there is exponentially more potential in the next few weeks as there was in the past 3 winters for the midsouth.  The problem is it may not be snow, but there is still better chances versus past winters.
if we can get the artic air further south then snow will be on table for us nothing set stone yet. But yeah ice does look be concern for sure
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 30, 2021, 07:14:40 PM
wow Clint we are the same age lol... yes it was a winter storm to remember. We had 4 inches snow on top all that ice
I was 10 years old I remember it well. My dad was in the hospital at nashville and you could see the ice cut off halfway down germantown hill, it looked like you could cut it with a knife. Major ice in Montgomery county.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: lyngo on January 30, 2021, 09:01:55 PM
If we can hold the -NAO (which it looks like we will), look for the track of systems that are modeled to shift further and further south.  We may have a cutter or two to deal with but this will act to push any arctic boundary further and further east.  Like Bugalou said, this is one of the better setups we
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 30, 2021, 10:39:44 PM
If we can hold the -NAO (which it looks like we will), look for the track of systems that are modeled to shift further and further south.  We may have a cutter or two to deal with but this will act to push any arctic boundary further and further east.  Like Bugalou said, this is one of the better setups we
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 31, 2021, 07:58:27 AM
The Euro and GFS have swapped positions on the Friday system.  The Euro features the ultimate lakes cutter track and then shows another lakes cutter right after that one while the GFS is suppressed and drills NW TN and West KY.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 31, 2021, 08:30:19 AM
The Euro and GFS have swapped positions on the Friday system.  The Euro features the ultimate lakes cutter track and then shows another lakes cutter right after that one while the GFS is suppressed and drills NW TN and West KY.
the euro dead set on popping little se ridge up that timeframe
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 31, 2021, 10:02:34 AM
the euro dead set on popping little se ridge up that timeframe

In split-flow patterns, the phasing of systems can also cause storms to obtain a negative tilt and move more vertical versus horizontal.  It isn't just the SE Ridge although there is some influence on that as well but it is also how systems phase.  The Christmas 2009, I-44 storm is a perfect example.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 31, 2021, 11:20:41 AM
No agreement at all with the CMC and GFS with the first system. The second system  on February 7 is money statewide. On to the next run. There is a third system coming in at day 10 on the CMC that looks awesome.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Susan on January 31, 2021, 11:22:15 AM
Quote
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1001 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

12Z models are starting to come in this morning, and continue to
show snow potential for the Cumberland Plateau and areas nearby.
The GFS and NAM remain the most bullish with snow amounts, with
CAMs and other long term models more in line with current forecast
thinking. Cross sections show decent lift and deep moisture along
and just west of higher elevations on the Plateau, and 1 to 2
inches of snow potential from midnight tonight through noon
Monday. Isolated spots could potentially get up to around 3 inches
in the usual locations on the Plateau if conditions line up, but
will know more as additional model data comes in. West of the
Plateau (western 2/3 of the mid state) looks like a dusting to a
few tenths will be possible, however models are keeping temps
around to just above freezing, which will make snow difficult to
stick, especially for urban areas where roads/buildings will keep
ground conditions a little warmer. More to come with the full
forecast package this afternoon.

&&
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Woodvegas on January 31, 2021, 11:26:33 AM
1/31 12Z GFS and CMC both show an arctic outbreak starting next Sunday-Monday with hints of associated snow. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 31, 2021, 12:07:07 PM
Euro was a little too cold and suppressed last night. It didn't waste any time at all getting that cold down into the center of the Country. Be interesting to see here in a few minutes if the 12z holds onto that idea. I think it evolves a little slower than that, but it would be nice to get a decent snow before the artic dump because it would definitely hang around for a few days and give the kids some ample sledding.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 31, 2021, 12:41:46 PM
Euro GFS and CMC are all in agreement for February 7th. A week away so what could go wrong ?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 31, 2021, 12:48:14 PM
Euro GFS and CMC are all in agreement for February 7th. A week away so what could go wrong ?
loose a lot of sleep this week lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Woodvegas on January 31, 2021, 12:56:54 PM
Looks like the 1/31 12Z Euro is joining the arctic party starting next Sunday showing single digit low temps and snow in my back yard.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 31, 2021, 12:57:36 PM
loose a lot of sleep this week lol

Euro already has it as a rain to snow event for most of us. Considering that, I think it puts us out of that misery pretty quickly and just goes full rain.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on January 31, 2021, 01:07:41 PM
Euro GFS and CMC are all in agreement for February 7th. A week away so what could go wrong ?
Yep, and there's another incoming storm afterwards on Feb 9/10.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on January 31, 2021, 01:12:28 PM
Euro already has it as a rain to snow event for most of us. Considering that, I think it puts us out of that misery pretty quickly and just goes full rain.

This is the likely scenario.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: cliftown04 on January 31, 2021, 01:20:04 PM
I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 31, 2021, 01:35:40 PM
Euro already has it as a rain to snow event for most of us. Considering that, I think it puts us out of that misery pretty quickly and just goes full rain.
As far as temps go the euro seems to be trending to colder GFS, sure things could change but things seem to be trending in the right direction. I don't see much rain if them temps are close to accurate in the long range. I am very confident with the pattern as we head in late this upcoming week through the middle of the month. If it doesn't I will live but I have a good feeling. In fact I am throwing all my snowchips to the table for a least one major event between the 7th-13th of february maybe even 2 or more. I'm feeling it, let's ride!!!! ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Woodvegas on January 31, 2021, 01:40:28 PM
As far as temps go the euro seems to be trending to colder GFS, sure things could change but things seem to be trending in the right direction. I don't see much rain if them temps are close to accurate in the long range. I am very confident with the pattern as we head in late this upcoming week through the middle of the month. If it doesn't I will live but I have a good feeling. In fact I am throwing all my snowchips to the table for a least one major event between the 7th-13th of february maybe even 2 or more. I'm feeling it, let's ride!!!! ::popcorn:: ::guitar:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

12Z Euro temps are actually a little colder than the GFS for next Monday but that may at least in part be related to the Euro showing snow on the ground.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 31, 2021, 01:47:46 PM
12Z Euro temps are actually a little colder than the GFS for next Monday but that may be at least in part be related to the Euro showing snow on the ground.
yeah euro is picking up on the temps reflecting snowfall Sunday night
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on January 31, 2021, 02:53:52 PM
Euro GFS and CMC are all in agreement for February 7th. A week away so what could go wrong ?
What are they in agreement on exactly? Looks like a bitterly cold day with very sparse moisture at every major airport I checked. Under 0.06
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Susan on January 31, 2021, 03:02:39 PM
A long one.   ::pondering::  I chose not to highlight any sections this time because the entire discussion is interesting

Quote
National Weather Service Nashville TN
228 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021


.DISCUSSION...

Model spread has continued to be large for snow events in the mid
state this year, and this event is no exception. The GFS and
Canadian are holding strong at the high end of snow amounts, while
the lower res ECMWF remains at the lower end or around the 10th
percentile. High res CAMs are right around consensus average to
just above average for this event, but enough uncertainty exists
that confidence in snowfall amounts, especially in the advisory
area, is low to medium even this close to the event.

Deep eastern trough currently digging its way south and east today
will be the driver for snow potential over the next 36 hours or
so. Cold front is working its way through the mid state currently,
with northwest winds bringing CAA over the mid state. Precip looks
to arrive more widespread later in the evening, where most of the
area will see rain to start off. On the Plateau and at higher
elevations the changeover to all snow will be after 9 pm but
before midnight, and the rest of the mid state after midnight.
Urban areas, especially the Nashville metro, may see a rain/snow
mix a little longer than other areas as slightly warmer temps may
keep all snow away for a few hours longer. The warmer surface
temps looks to also limit accumulation potential, but more on
accumulations in a bit. Snow will continue into the morning, but
move off to the east by the afternoon. The Plateau will still see
chances for accumulating snow in the afternoon and possibly even
into the evening Monday/overnight Tuesday.

Soundings and cross sections show models really focusing in on
orographic lift with this event as northwest wind orientation
lines up well with the higher elevations on the Cumberland
Plateau. Omega values peak just in front of the higher elevations,
and deep moisture is in place overnight through most of the day
Monday. But as the trough moves east, drier air aloft may limit
the heavier snow potential on the Plateau, but still enough near
surface moisture to get a little more accumulation. Current
forecast thinking has the higher elevations of the Plateau seeing
1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts definitely possible
especially in the areas that typically see a bit more with this
setup. Just off the Plateau to the west could see around a half
inch or so and even up to an inch, but the western 2/3 of the mid
state will likely see a dusting to a few tenths of an inch.

However, some models are really hitting that orographic lift hard,
with the deep moisture, and squeezing out every possible ounce of
moisture for snow tonight through Monday night. Highest elevations
on the Plateau show around 4 inches with those models, and if
additional moisture moves in, snow starts sooner/continues longer,
those higher amounts will be possible. On the other end, the drier
air may work its way in sooner, or the orographic lift in the
models (especially the higher-res CAMs) may be way overdone, and
the eastern 1/3 may only see a half inch for most with around an
inch or two at highest elevations. Very difficult forecast as very
little change from any variable could result in big swings in
snowfall accumulations in the east.

Another lobe of energy from the upper trough looks to swing
through late Monday/early Tuesday, and may keep the Plateau with
snow a little longer. Otherwise ridging moves in behind the trough
and keeps us dry for a few days. By Thursday, another trough will
move in from the Plains, and bring chances for precip during the
day. Models are not in complete agreement, but the GFS brings
another trough right on its heels and very cold arctic air with it
as well by Sunday morning. The ECMWF and Canadian get on board
about 12 hours later, but 850 mb temps around -22C would yield
some pretty cold lows and even daytime highs. If that forecast
pans out, lows in the single digits will not be out of the
question, but this far out things could trend upward just as
easily. So dont bank on the arctic airmass just yet!

&&
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Michael on January 31, 2021, 03:12:52 PM
Winter Weather Advisories issued for Plateau and Northern Valley areas in East TN for Mon-Tues NW Flow Event.

Winter Storm Warning for the Smokies.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210131/5ad0baa98a5f0308c94a442fbd4b6cc2.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210131/faf1675f11450d1ef2090ecdb9c51e52.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 31, 2021, 03:15:02 PM
At this point I don't see a model that isn't pointing to much colder starting next weekend? I am missing something or are they just waiting to see more consistency. Sitting here ready to go on a good long tracking binge starting late this week hopefully through next week. It would be nice to have at least a good 7-12 days of good winter maybe even a little longer with a few good storms or 3. Then we can warm on up and I will be ready for spring if that were to verify. I'm all in, even if it doesn't at least the chances are there and the weather appears to get very interesting starting late next week. Here's too a statewide special!!!!! ::yum::  ::popcorn::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on January 31, 2021, 03:18:27 PM
Winter Weather Advisories issued for Plateau and Northern Valley areas in East TN for Mon-Tues NW Flow Event.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
And an SWS for the central valley.

Quote
Description
...Accumulating Snowfall Possible In The Central and Southern Tennessee Valley and Southwest North Carolina Mountains Monday Into Tuesday...

A winter storm system will move across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians region into Monday morning lasting into Tuesday. Snow totals in the valley will remain light, generally a half inch or less is expected. Slightly higher totals are possible across portions of southwest North Carolina as up to an inch or inch and a half cannot be ruled out. Snow will move out of the area into Tuesday morning for the valley, lasting into Tuesday afternoon for southwest North Carolina.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 31, 2021, 03:21:13 PM
At this point I don't see a model that isn't pointing to much colder starting next weekend?

A day or two ago the models were somewhat further apart on next weeks cold, but they've all come around today and are signalling some pretty good cold. If some of those temps were to verify, we'd been looking at the coldest temps in a couple years IMBY. I'm with you on moving all of my chips in for the next couple of weeks. If we hit big, awesome. If we strike out, then let's move on to spring.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 31, 2021, 03:29:29 PM
Secretly excited for entire state over the next 2 weeks. So much time for activities... Its amazing how many people say that winter is over, nor atic , or artic ,artisian air to arrive..
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Susan on January 31, 2021, 03:41:58 PM
(https://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image1.png?20df454ee4388f75317d6ca4e64c96cf)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Michael on January 31, 2021, 03:44:03 PM
NAM 3k Kuchera Ratio shows 4-5 FEET for Mt Leconte Mon/Tues. Thats not happening.

I actually pinpointed near LeConte. 67
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 31, 2021, 03:51:49 PM
Well the one thing we can all agree on is the cold air is around or will be here in the area.  Also opportunities is all we can ask for and we have those also.  So fun times ahead and no reason to pinpoint the temps at this time.  As we all know low level cold can be underestimated on models.  Big picture first and as we get closer we will see the finer details.  Also these are in mid range and not long range.  So let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 31, 2021, 03:57:16 PM
Secretly excited for entire state over the next 2 weeks. So much time for activities... Its amazing how many people say that winter is over, nor atic , or artic ,artisian air to arrive..

A stronger trending -NAO will make things a lot more interesting than I had originally thought as long as it holds through.  Our cutter system on the 5th looks to be the pattern changer.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on January 31, 2021, 04:04:01 PM
I will gladly accept a good snow on the 15th as a birthday prezzie!   ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 31, 2021, 04:29:38 PM
Gonna be a lot of model watching the next few days. The happy hour GFS has a statewide hit on the first system.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 31, 2021, 04:36:10 PM
Winter Weather Advisories issued for Plateau and Northern Valley areas in East TN for Mon-Tues NW Flow Event.

Winter Storm Warning for the Smokies.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210131/5ad0baa98a5f0308c94a442fbd4b6cc2.jpg)
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210131/faf1675f11450d1ef2090ecdb9c51e52.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The "zone" forecast has up to 9 inches here.  I'm expecting 1-2, and I'll be happy with that.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Michael on January 31, 2021, 04:41:07 PM
18z GFS for
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on January 31, 2021, 04:46:23 PM
The should be fun for the next week or two

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 31, 2021, 05:05:14 PM
Man I hope we sure don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on January 31, 2021, 05:11:04 PM
Man I hope we sure don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 31, 2021, 05:40:07 PM
This is what I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Woodvegas on January 31, 2021, 05:40:55 PM
1/31 18Z GFS hammers eastern middle TN and the plateau next weekend giving my backyard about 6 inches of snow and a low temp near 0. Long way to go but at least we have something to follow.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bluegrasspr on January 31, 2021, 05:52:29 PM
Loudon County just canceled schools for tomorrow (just west of Knoxville. Not sure why.   ::scratch::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 31, 2021, 06:11:37 PM
A to the R to the C to the T to the I to the C ... What does that spell? Thy people of TN butcher thy name , no snow will come! Damnit guys come on! :laugh:
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on January 31, 2021, 06:29:18 PM
The euro ensemble flip to cold - and almost sustained cold - is remarkable. It has such a flaw of underestimating cold air intrusions and just continual dumping them in the west. The severely negative PNA it forecast is now not as strong. Like most winters here, we probably get a 2-3 week window of opportunity.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 31, 2021, 06:38:25 PM
The euro ensemble flip to cold - and almost sustained cold - is remarkable. It has such a flaw of underestimating cold air intrusions and just continual dumping them in the west. The severely negative PNA it forecast is now not as strong. Like most winters here, we probably get a 2-3 week window of opportunity.

Not a single shade of orange or red in the latest CPC 8-14 day outlook which nowadays is rare.   

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Michael on January 31, 2021, 06:47:56 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210201/f2a80557e67755cbd9b18d2e645a349b.jpg)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on January 31, 2021, 07:29:46 PM
Arctic air and fun and games. Let's get it on!!!!! ::yum::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on January 31, 2021, 07:47:10 PM
The euro ensemble flip to cold - and almost sustained cold - is remarkable. It has such a flaw of underestimating cold air intrusions and just continual dumping them in the west. The severely negative PNA it forecast is now not as strong. Like most winters here, we probably get a 2-3 week window of opportunity.

No kidding.  Good grief.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 31, 2021, 07:51:06 PM
A to the R to the C to the T to the I to the C ... What does that spell?

Well, you just lost Bruce...   ::cliff::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on January 31, 2021, 07:51:56 PM
I will gladly accept a good snow on the 15th as a birthday prezzie!   ::snowman::

39 years young. Happy Birthday!!  ::guitar::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 31, 2021, 08:08:51 PM
39 years young. Happy Birthday!!  ::guitar::
she wishes lol... what I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 31, 2021, 08:27:27 PM
Well, you just lost Bruce...   ::cliff::
i am still here . But been long day work off bed early tonite
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 31, 2021, 08:46:24 PM
Quote
.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches with locally higher amounts of 3 to 6 inches possible
  at the highest elevations of southwest Virginia and the East
  Tennessee foothills.

* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on January 31, 2021, 09:10:09 PM
she wishes lol... what I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 31, 2021, 09:24:39 PM


Happy to hear man, I hope you get the higher end!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on January 31, 2021, 09:38:44 PM
A to the R to the C to the T to the I to the C ... What does that spell? Thy people of TN butcher thy name , no snow will come! Damnit guys come on! :laugh:

Don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on January 31, 2021, 10:40:24 PM
Getting vastly different solutions between the 0z GFS & 0z GFS para for 2/7


Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Huntermc18 on January 31, 2021, 11:42:34 PM
Getting vastly different solutions between the 0z GFS & 0z GFS para for 2/7

Where can you see the para? I just noticed tidbits doesn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on January 31, 2021, 11:49:02 PM
Where can you see the para? I just noticed tidbits doesn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on January 31, 2021, 11:52:22 PM
Don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 31, 2021, 11:58:38 PM
Getting vastly different solutions between the 0z GFS & 0z GFS para for 2/7
the para has a nice apps runner .
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 01, 2021, 05:44:43 AM
0z euro doesn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on February 01, 2021, 07:03:23 AM
We've got light snow and already a decent dusting in west Knoxville this morning. It isn't much, but if it's going to be this cold we should get to see a little something out of it!  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 01, 2021, 07:12:45 AM
It has snowed hard enough this morning to accumulate to a dusting despite a temp of 34.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 01, 2021, 07:24:39 AM
Half flurries half drizzle on the drive in to work. A few lightly dusted roofs and mulched areas, but nothing much more than that. Looks to be another cloudy, moist, 35 degree day. We never get those.  ::)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 01, 2021, 07:52:48 AM
artic
(https://media.giphy.com/media/1wXbnKYCCFXqlqzhNU/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 01, 2021, 08:03:55 AM
Measured .2" on the snowboard. Just a dusting in town.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 01, 2021, 08:37:50 AM
Same, Coach B. Glad to have something to kick off February.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 01, 2021, 08:46:36 AM
There is probably 1/2" in Cleveland. It's still snowing, but melting quickly now.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 01, 2021, 08:54:33 AM
NYC is getting clobbered right now.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 01, 2021, 09:58:02 AM
Persistent light snow falling since daybreak here.  In the last hour it's become heavy enough to reduce visibility, but it's not sticking much except on cars and fallen leaves. Sky has become noticeably darker in the last hour as well.
Temp is 33.1. 

MRX says that the intensity should increase this afternoon and evening.  Up to 2" possible, but I think most of that will have to occur toward dark as temps drop.  Either way, it's an enjoyable day just watching the flakes fall. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 01, 2021, 10:35:19 AM
The Feb 9th storm next week looks amazing. The clown map is archive worthy. Lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 01, 2021, 10:36:02 AM
Let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 10:59:55 AM
Let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 01, 2021, 11:07:14 AM
Here
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 01, 2021, 11:25:22 AM
Let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 01, 2021, 11:32:59 AM
Whatever the individual operational runs show, at a minimum it looks like three or four chances over the next 10-12 days. GFS even has the obligatory reinforcing arctic shot out there at the end of the run.  ::snowman:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold::

Plus there is this:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtJjGxeXYAYUv3c?format=jpg&name=900x900)

from:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1356255461591412736
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 11:34:59 AM
FWIW the para says no. Canadian on board though

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

From what I have seen the para is useless.  I am not sure why they put money into a model that they are not using. 

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 11:38:41 AM
Whatever the individual operational runs show, at a minimum it looks like three or four chances over the next 10-12 days. GFS even has the obligatory reinforcing arctic shot out there at the end of the run.  ::snowman:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::cold::

Plus there is this:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtJjGxeXYAYUv3c?format=jpg&name=900x900)

from:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1356255461591412736

I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 01, 2021, 11:56:03 AM
The snowman checking in, I am sure  ::yum:: for some  ::snowman::!!!!!!! Lots of model watching in the near future. Bring on some winter weather!!!!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 01, 2021, 12:24:00 PM
Gfs ensembles show a possibility of winter weather with the arctic front arrival Saturday night. They
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 01, 2021, 12:31:07 PM
From our buddies over at BAM:
Quote
I cant really recall a time where Ive witnessed a 32 HDD gain inside of 11 days on the ensemble runs.

GEFS getting significantly colder vs 00z 12hrs ago.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1356296504638627848 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1356296504638627848)

Quality youtube video from them today as well:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0xDjf6RLcc&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BAMWX (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0xDjf6RLcc&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BAMWX)

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 01, 2021, 12:45:35 PM
I will not wishcast a snowstorm.

I will not wishcast a snowstorm.

I will not wishcast a snowstorm.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 12:46:47 PM
12z Euro loaded with 2 legit opportunities.  8)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 01, 2021, 12:48:02 PM
12z Euro has the 2/9 storm

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 01, 2021, 12:48:25 PM
12z Euro loaded with 2 legit opportunities.  8)
It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 12:51:15 PM
Do not look at the Euro clown map...goooooooooooooodness
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on February 01, 2021, 12:52:00 PM
When
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: WXHD on February 01, 2021, 12:54:40 PM
When
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 12:55:32 PM
Dont know that I have ever seen a Euro clown map like this for BNA. Now, it is a straight 10:1 map and I don't know how Pivotal codes their snow vs ice...but you get the idea....also that is total snow through 222

(https://i.ibb.co/XprfVh1/12z-Euro-2-1-21.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 12:59:54 PM
 ::unclesam::
Do not look at the Euro clown map...goooooooooooooodness

To late!  I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matt on February 01, 2021, 01:00:08 PM
Dont know that I have ever seen a Euro clown map like this for BNA. Now, it is a straight 10:1 map and I don't know how Pivotal codes their snow vs ice...but you get the idea....also that is total snow through 222

(https://i.ibb.co/XprfVh1/12z-Euro-2-1-21.png)

I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 01:01:27 PM
Congrats Snowman, you win the bullseye award this run.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 01, 2021, 01:03:09 PM
Euro gets most of middle and east TN over the weekend then single digits or colder followed by another one middle of the week!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 01, 2021, 01:03:47 PM
NYC is getting clobbered right now.
Nothing quite like a snowy NYC!  Even lovelier at Christmas if it snows there.  Love to visit there buy could never live there.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 01:04:49 PM
Dont know that I have ever seen a Euro clown map like this for BNA. Now, it is a straight 10:1 map and I don't know how Pivotal codes their snow vs ice...but you get the idea....also that is total snow through 222

(https://i.ibb.co/XprfVh1/12z-Euro-2-1-21.png)

I will not get sucked in.  Resist!  Resist!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 01, 2021, 01:06:32 PM
Just a dusting of snow in the edges of the yard and on our truck. I think we were a little to West of the snow.  Went into Nash this morning and they had about the same as us.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Woodvegas on February 01, 2021, 01:16:09 PM
Dont know that I have ever seen a Euro clown map like this for BNA. Now, it is a straight 10:1 map and I don't know how Pivotal codes their snow vs ice...but you get the idea....also that is total snow through 222

(https://i.ibb.co/XprfVh1/12z-Euro-2-1-21.png)

Best. TN. Map. Ever.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: WXHD on February 01, 2021, 01:19:09 PM
Euro gets most of middle and east TN over the weekend then single digits or colder followed by another one middle of the week!

It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 01, 2021, 01:19:21 PM
Mother of god 12z euro ...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 01:20:56 PM
Well, my map was actually underdone. Kuchera is even more ridiculous.

Disclaimer: For lurkers, these maps are purely for fun and for entertainment purposes only.

(https://i.ibb.co/MBKKKHk/1225521152-Screen-Shot2021-02-01at2-06-47-PM-png-718d7b3f7b3e4452119768529f552091.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 01:25:03 PM
Well, my map was actually underdone. Kuchera is even more ridiculous.

Disclaimer: For lurkers, these maps are purely for fun and for entertainment purposes only.

(https://i.ibb.co/MBKKKHk/1225521152-Screen-Shot2021-02-01at2-06-47-PM-png-718d7b3f7b3e4452119768529f552091.png)

Give me a 1/4 of that map and I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 01, 2021, 01:28:00 PM
It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 01, 2021, 01:32:12 PM
Well, my map was actually underdone. Kuchera is even more ridiculous.

Disclaimer: For lurkers, these maps are purely for fun and for entertainment purposes only.

(https://i.ibb.co/MBKKKHk/1225521152-Screen-Shot2021-02-01at2-06-47-PM-png-718d7b3f7b3e4452119768529f552091.png)

I was waiting to see when this would get posted up :) Pretty incredible
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Navywxman on February 01, 2021, 01:40:20 PM
In the end, the cold will be overstated, & will retreat to a cold rain event with backside flurries to a dusting.
 ::coffee::
Cheers!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: justinmundie on February 01, 2021, 01:43:30 PM
If anything close to this looks to verify, I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 01, 2021, 01:44:39 PM
Well, my map was actually underdone. Kuchera is even more ridiculous.

Disclaimer: For lurkers, these maps are purely for fun and for entertainment purposes only.

(https://i.ibb.co/MBKKKHk/1225521152-Screen-Shot2021-02-01at2-06-47-PM-png-718d7b3f7b3e4452119768529f552091.png)

Satan and Christ will battle for Earth before that happens.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 01, 2021, 01:44:59 PM
No doubt. Check the generator, chainsaws, and get lots of firewood to the back porch. I try to do all of this a couple of times a winter just because of the 94 memories.
also make sure the snow blower has plenty fuel ...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 01, 2021, 01:46:43 PM
Satan and Christ will battle for Earth before that happens.
actually they have been battling for earth . Along as for our souls too
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 01, 2021, 01:56:32 PM
Do not look at the Euro clown map...goooooooooooooodness

Holy smokes. People would die if the snowfall and following temperatures verified like it's showing. No joke. I'll kindly take half of that and shut up for the next few years. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 01:59:38 PM
Holy smokes. People would die if the snowfall and following temperatures verified like it's showing. No joke. I'll kindly take half of that and shut up for the next few years. 

I mean places south of us were buried in 1993, so it is definitely possible to get something like that but it would obviously be a once in a 100 year storm.

Euro is 1.5" QPF, all snow at decent ratios. Would be an amazing event.

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 01, 2021, 02:00:58 PM
Holy smokes. People would die if the snowfall and following temperatures verified like it's showing. No joke. I'll kindly take half of that and shut up for the next few years.

If 1 meter of snow fell followed by frigid temperatures in the span of a week, the death toll down here would surpass 100.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 01, 2021, 02:01:50 PM
In the end, the cold will be overstated, & will retreat to a cold rain event with backside flurries to a dusting.
 ::coffee::
Cheers!
I just hope we can have something fun to track for a few days before it finally retreats to Minnesota.

#LoweredExpectations
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 01, 2021, 02:17:00 PM
If 1 meter of snow fell followed by frigid temperatures in the span of a week, the death toll down here would surpass 100.
Most want it to be snow over ice. That's the good side of it. ::popcorn::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 01, 2021, 02:23:36 PM
Most want it to be snow over ice. That's the good side of it. ::popcorn::
o no. When mr golf post something big winter wise is brewing ... good hear from you mr golf.   . Let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2021, 02:42:41 PM
Y'all said don't look at the Euro map(s).

I looked at the Euro map(s). 

(https://media.giphy.com/media/3oFzma9bP43akOwIQo/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 01, 2021, 02:46:17 PM
When the thread has 3 more pages since I last checked earlier this morning, it must be good.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 01, 2021, 02:47:46 PM
Alright. We've gotten the fantasy maps we've all craved this winter.

Now let's get a statewide 6-10" snowfall for Christ's f*cking sake. Enough 34 degree dustings- we are way overdue for a big storm.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 02:50:58 PM
Sure would be nice to track this storm all week and it actually happen for once.  Been a long time since tracked a storm up till point that it was actually happening.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2021, 02:54:59 PM
In the end, the cold will be overstated, & will retreat to a cold rain event with backside flurries to a dusting.
 ::coffee::
Cheers!

This is the correct solution.  Thank you everyone else for playing.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 01, 2021, 02:56:51 PM
Sure would be nice to track this storm all week and it actually happen for once.  Been a long time since tracked a storm up till point that it was actually happening.

^ So true.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 01, 2021, 02:57:33 PM
I guess our years of complaining about the lack of winter weather reached the ears of someone.  If what the Euro shows came to fruition, it would shut down the state for days.  We haven't seen anything even close to that in decades.  That's what gives me pause about believing that this far out. 

As for today, snow has really increased here in the last hour.  Temperature has dropped to 30, and it's sticking now.  Radar shows enhanced echoes developing over the foothill areas southeast of Knoxville.  Road conditions will probably deteriorate after sunset. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 03:00:06 PM
Well if BIG IF we get to the point that this possibility of a storm actually deserves a thread.  I nominate Snowdog to start it.  Since he is the one that posted the Euro porn to make us all get excited. I was not biting till he posted the porn. I mean sheesh 1.50 inches!!! Of snow that is! 
One thing is almost certain.  We could have a thread just for the temps coming.

Also if does not happen and it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 01, 2021, 03:00:59 PM
Wonder what the percentage of Snow maps I looked at 7 days out actually happening. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 03:02:03 PM
This is the correct solution.  Thank you everyone else for playing.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/Vo1E02XMea8U/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 03:03:39 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/Vo1E02XMea8U/giphy.gif)

That there is the name of the thread if we get to that point.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 03:04:41 PM
Any bets it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: angrypug on February 01, 2021, 03:05:10 PM
Im waiting for Clay Travis to get a hold of this  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2021, 03:18:10 PM
Im waiting for Clay Travis to get a hold of this  ::fingerscrossed::

He will and I hope he absolutely gets nuked for it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 01, 2021, 03:20:52 PM
There
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 01, 2021, 03:23:23 PM
Im waiting for Clay Travis to get a hold of this  ::fingerscrossed::

Really can't stand that guy.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 01, 2021, 03:25:47 PM
Any bets it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Yazoo63 on February 01, 2021, 03:37:08 PM
Interesting writeup from OHX afternoon forecast discussion ...  The last line is particularly intriguing ...  "But with the potential cold late this
weekend, and a potential heavy snow setup next week, winter isnt
releasing its grip anytime soon!"   Haven't seen the words "heavy" and "snow" from OHX in a long time!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 03:40:44 PM
Really can't stand that guy.

People either love him or hate him, no real middle ground. I've always liked him. Then again, I appreciate pot stirrers.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 01, 2021, 03:54:49 PM
People either love him or hate him, no real middle ground. I've always liked him. Then again, I appreciate pot stirrers.

Never liked him; he's like Bill Maher to me. An arrogant person who talks way more than he should.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 04:18:15 PM
Well let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 01, 2021, 04:21:35 PM
18z GFS coming in with temps much colder across the southern plains/Texas into Memphis on the morning of 2/8. Also noticed that the closed ULL over baja Cali is now positioned over northern Cali/southern Oregon

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 01, 2021, 04:23:40 PM
Well let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 01, 2021, 04:24:33 PM
Well let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 01, 2021, 04:24:47 PM
Well let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 01, 2021, 04:37:34 PM
 18Z GFS Looks like all the moisture gets squashed to the South East on this run.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 01, 2021, 05:22:09 PM
18Z GFS still looks good to me. It's got potential snow with the arctic front on Sat night/Sun morning and the overrunning wave look on Tue night and Wed. Single digit lows nearly statewide following each one. I don't know about blockbuster snows, but the odds of something next week are about as high as can be at this lead time.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020118/gfs_T2m_seus_27.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020118/gfs_T2m_seus_44.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clay on February 01, 2021, 05:23:22 PM
This one's going into the history books in the NE. NYC still has another 24 hours of accumulation to go as the back side low pressure system ejects e'ward. Over a foot already on the ground.

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 01, 2021, 05:28:08 PM
This one's going into the history books in the NE. NYC still has another 24 hours of accumulation to go as the back side low pressure system ejects e'ward. Over a foot already on the ground.
Thought they were only expecting another 2-3 inches. They would maybe squeak into top 10 snowfalls in NYC with 18 I think

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 05:35:10 PM
I don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 01, 2021, 06:49:01 PM
My goodness, klzk  Little Rock nws wrote a book for their afternoon afd . I never seen a afd that long and thoroughly written. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 01, 2021, 06:50:30 PM
My son
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on February 01, 2021, 07:43:56 PM
I'm trying extremely hard not get my hopes about any chances coming up. I've been burned sooooo many times.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 07:54:25 PM
I'm trying extremely hard not get my hopes about any chances coming up. I've been burned sooooo many times.

You can look at the clown for the 18z GFS-P. Shows a nice small snowhole over BNA and another one over the Chatty Valley, rest of the State has snow. That'll bring you back down to earth real quick.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 01, 2021, 08:21:09 PM
You can look at the clown for the 18z GFS-P. Shows a nice small snowhole over BNA and another one over the Chatty Valley, rest of the State has snow. That'll bring you back down to earth real quick.
Oh you have to be optimistic!  We will all get a bunch of snow next week!  Don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 08:38:04 PM
I'm trying extremely hard not get my hopes about any chances coming up. I've been burned sooooo many times.

This time 1 million
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 08:42:55 PM
Oh you have to be optimistic!  We will all get a bunch of snow next week!  Don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 09:55:16 PM
Funny the icon was not great and some start jumping. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2021, 10:23:14 PM
0z GFS went warm with a much weaker solution.  Who wants ice?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 10:28:49 PM
0z GFS went warm with a much weaker solution.  Who wants ice?

I want the 25" the Euro showed.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2021, 10:33:01 PM
I want the 25" the Euro showed.

You shall receive 2.5" of ice.

You get what you get and don't throw a fit.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Vols1 on February 01, 2021, 10:35:25 PM
**** did it show 2.5 inches of ice!?!?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 01, 2021, 10:38:19 PM
0z GFS went warm with a much weaker solution.  Who wants ice?
If I wanted ice I'd go here (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210202/f596b5b9b5e731320dd79f2f6a61fbdb.jpg)

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 01, 2021, 10:41:58 PM
**** did it show 2.5 inches of ice!?!?

No, just being facetious.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 01, 2021, 10:44:10 PM
I am fully prepared for the 0z euro to show 33.4" of snow and blizzard conditions from Tulsa to St. Louis to Indianapolis ::cliff::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 01, 2021, 10:45:17 PM
No, just being facetious.

You actually predicted the next few frames, the second storm, lol.

Why do I look at the GFS? I know better.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 01, 2021, 11:02:19 PM
That entire run of the GFS was not bad at all for winter weather. It may have been a little warmer but it had the 5th bringing some snow as well along with 2 more possible rounds of winter after that. I think right now the models are probably struggling with the arctic air and the pattern in general. Maybe the models with converge on a similar solutions as we get closer in time. The other board has folks freakin out on one run of the icon for goodness sakes, sure anything could happen but for me it's fun to excited when the potential is there. I know the drill, I have lived here all my life we miss often. But we also every once in a while connect.If you love winter weather you have to like the chances over the next few weeks. ::popcorn:: ::yum::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 11:16:19 PM
So many models to look at.  Well we know cold enough air is close by so that
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 11:17:06 PM
You actually predicted the next few frames, the second storm, lol.

Why do I look at the GFS? I know better.

No ice please. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 01, 2021, 11:17:23 PM
The GFS Para was a major ice storm this way. Canadian lost the entire system early next week. Get ready for more changes.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JetJock on February 01, 2021, 11:19:52 PM
As much as I want the dreaded snow dome to collapse, I can't help but expect this:
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 01, 2021, 11:20:38 PM
The GFS Para was a major ice storm this way. Canadian lost the entire system early next week. Get ready for more changes.

Fun week ahead.  Hopefully it does not get up to a day out and goes to poop.  I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 01, 2021, 11:23:07 PM
The GFS Para was a major ice storm this way. Canadian lost the entire system early next week. Get ready for more changes.
Really needed the baja cut off low all of the12z runs were showing

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 01, 2021, 11:33:21 PM
The GFS Para was a major ice storm this way. Canadian lost the entire system early next week. Get ready for more changes.

Yea, I'm not sure I like where this is heading. Here's the GFS Para ZR map.

(https://i.imgur.com/nNYjkAT.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 02, 2021, 12:40:50 AM
Just saw a 22 degree temp swing from 12z to 0z euro for the same time. 0z coming in warmer. Yikes
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 02, 2021, 12:45:10 AM
And there's basically no 2/9 storm now
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 02, 2021, 05:24:25 AM
This morning
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 02, 2021, 05:45:12 AM
Quote
However, with that shift in high pressure influences eastward, an
developing inverted surface troughing pattern will develop as
first half of next work week progresses from a surface low
expected to be centered in far southern plains. Upper level flow
will increasingly developing zonal characteristics supportive of
passages of weak disturbances aloft as mid next week approaches
also. By the way, lows Monday night are expected to be in the mid
20s with highs on Tuesday warming to mid 30s to lower 40s and then
lows once again back in the 20s on Tuesday night. The set up of
this surface inverted troughing pattern would likely bring a good
amount of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. As one might, this
could result in a pretty significant overrunning/isentropic lift
snow event across portions of the contiguous U.S. Southeast
including mid state region. Certainly more additional upcoming
model runs needed for additional clarification and interpretation,
but with at least a couple of consecutive consensus model runs
advertising this possibility, cold air remaining in place from
initial early week artic high pressure system could potently set
the stage for a major heavy snowfall event across mid state
region. Again, this is not a given by any means this far out, and
is still outside our official 7 day forecast window. However, this
consensus model depiction set up is quite favorable for a heavy
snowfall event. Simply, the 2021 version of Old Man Winter may pay
a visit to our area early next week and leave in his wake a
winter wonderland type several inches of snowfall accumulation
event.

OHX still being somewhat bullish for next week.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 02, 2021, 06:28:16 AM
An active pattern on the 6Z GFS...

Snow:
(https://i.imgur.com/JEwLDft.png)

ZR:
(https://i.imgur.com/CI1HnXO.png)

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 02, 2021, 06:48:07 AM
00z Euro "lost" the big storm for our area, but plenty of good looking individual ensemble members. Probably 25% of the members had a decent snow across portions of TN.

Waiting and watching.   ::popcorn::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 02, 2021, 06:59:33 AM
00z Euro "lost" the big storm for our area, but plenty of good looking individual ensemble members. Probably 25% of the members had a decent snow across portions of TN.

Waiting and watching.   ::popcorn::
And the EPS control- which is the high resolution version of the ensemble run- was a totally different look. Watching deterministic models this far out from run to run will drive someone insane. Friday into Saturday should reveal the general course.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 02, 2021, 07:41:11 AM
And the EPS control- which is the high resolution version of the ensemble run- was a totally different look. Watching deterministic models this far out from run to run will drive someone insane. Friday into Saturday should reveal the general course.

I find it interesting models are showing continued dumps of arctic cold while the MJO is in Phases 6/7.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 02, 2021, 08:01:01 AM
Phil predicts 6 more weeks of winter...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/XI2NzEMSYdFxNpyNED/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 02, 2021, 09:03:54 AM
16" on Leconte  as of this AM.
(http://www.highonleconte.com/uploads/3/8/3/9/3839600/p170.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 02, 2021, 09:33:31 AM
I find it interesting models are showing continued dumps of arctic cold while the MJO is in Phases 6/7.
This is the main reason I refuse to get excited; these phases are not usually our February friend.  Why should they be now?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 02, 2021, 09:51:54 AM
This is the main reason I refuse to get excited; these phases are not usually our February friend.  Why should they be now?

Could be the NAO/AO are overwhelming the signal? I'm not real sure either.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 02, 2021, 09:57:52 AM
BAM has gone full on cold for next week:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtO2S9gWYAMZuPU?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 02, 2021, 10:13:59 AM
I find it interesting models are showing continued dumps of arctic cold while the MJO is in Phases 6/7.
The good news is that it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 02, 2021, 10:16:08 AM
The good news is that it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 02, 2021, 10:31:12 AM
Oh 12z GFS, you great big beautiful ***** you....

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png)

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 02, 2021, 10:35:03 AM
Its not 20", but I guess it will do.  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 02, 2021, 10:39:03 AM
Its not 20", but I guess it will do.  ::evillaugh::

(https://media.giphy.com/media/pUnWeKo1wVrag/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 02, 2021, 10:44:59 AM
Canadian trying on Sunday:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021020212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_20.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 02, 2021, 10:47:03 AM
BTW...don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 02, 2021, 11:26:10 AM
The good news is that it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 02, 2021, 12:48:48 PM
12z euro is a nothing burger here. But NYC get hammered again Monday.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Drifter on February 02, 2021, 12:58:51 PM
OK.  I will indulge myself in some mild enthusiasm... but I'm not committing until Mr. Wonderful starts posting again.
I forgot about Mr. Wonderful. Shame on me for that.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bobcat2 on February 02, 2021, 01:16:51 PM
My goodness, the GFS for the 18th.   Let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 02, 2021, 01:33:34 PM
I think we are in a  great spot.  Take a blend of the GFS and EURO and bam.  Those temps in upper Midwest are remarkable if true.  Record remarkable.  It appears models are doing normal biases.  That cold air is coming.  That is first thing we need.  I would not sleep on this Sunday system.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 02, 2021, 01:51:51 PM
The euro actually brings the cold in it's just later on arrival than gfs on that run. Later on in the run there is a 1060 hp on that euro run up in canada. Cannot live and die on one run for sure, I expect to see more back and forth till we draw nearer. Like one said the gfs can have a tendecy to be too progressive, the euro tends to sometimes hold things back. We meet in the middle things will be fine. ::popcorn::  ::yum::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 02, 2021, 01:55:50 PM
12z euro is a nothing burger here. But NYC get hammered again Monday.
EPS Control- the temp drop Saturday night to Sunday is unreal. If the moisture can linger just a bit would be nice. It has the Tuesday system as well- similar to the GFS. It then brings another more potent system across with cold air in the 13/14. Overall it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 02, 2021, 02:10:50 PM
EPS Control- the temp drop Saturday night to Sunday is unreal. If the moisture can linger just a bit would be nice. It has the Tuesday system as well- similar to the GFS. It then brings another more potent system across with cold air in the 13/14. Overall it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 02, 2021, 02:12:08 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/pUnWeKo1wVrag/giphy.gif)
I don't understand the eggplant flying past Uranus ... but the fact that I can legitimately use "Uranus" in a sentence has made my day.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Susan on February 02, 2021, 02:12:40 PM
Quote
National Weather Service Nashville TN
140 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021


.DISCUSSION...

Dry day across the mid state, with strong northwest winds keeping
temps in the upper 30s to low 40s. The Plateau still struggling to
get above freezing, but looks to get to the upper 30s tomorrow as
upper level ridging works its way across the region. Next
Plains/Midwest trough will still impact the region later in the
day on Thursday into Friday morning, with the upper trough moving
to our north and bringing the cold front through the area Thursday
evening. Models want to give most of the area around a half inch
and even up to an inch by sunrise Friday.


Friday now looks to be dry, and even into the day Saturday as we
get more of a zonal flow pattern aloft. Saturday night into Sunday
could bring chances for some rain and even snow as a Midwest
trough moves southeast towards the area. The GFS is a little bit
later than the ECMWF, bringing the precip chances in during the
day Sunday with another cold front. The ECMWF has a deeper trough
with moisture moving in from the Gulf as well as from our north.
With the uncertainty on timing, did not deviate from the previous
forecast too much and left in chance pops Saturday night into
Sunday.
With the Midwest trough being less aggressive, and not
digging into the Gulf states, the extremely cold air stays to our
north. Lows on Monday morning were raised slightly but still
holding in the teens area wide. The northwest may see highs on
Sunday in the upper 20s, but most of the area now looks to be
above freezing during the day Sunday and Monday.

As for the potential snow event early next week, no surprise
models have significantly weakened the upper trough and show
little consistency.
The GFS completely abandoned all precip and is
dry during that time, and the ECMWF is holding onto a weak trough
and brings the warm front further north, giving us better chances
at rain compared to snow. Hope is not completely lost for those
who want snow as it does look like this colder pattern will hold
during the week, and any changes to the upper pattern bringing in
a deep trough could yield some snow. For now, its looking like a
cooler week with slight chances for rain/snow and little impacts,
but stay tuned!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 02, 2021, 02:14:11 PM
Uranus

My favorite ball of gas.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 02, 2021, 02:29:01 PM
I don't understand the eggplant flying past Uranus ... but the fact that I can legitimately use "Uranus" in a sentence has made my day.

Bruce can explain it to you....   ::guitar::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 02, 2021, 02:31:29 PM

Huh, who couldn't have seen that coming, dusting "event" number 5 this season. If you add them all up we may have an inch on the season...if you're really generous with a couple of them.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/S9crjCfQXC78ST61iv/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 02, 2021, 02:44:48 PM
Dang the 12z euro has a 1060 hp coming down extended . That plays out the gulf Mexico will get our snow ...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 02, 2021, 02:49:07 PM
Dang the 12z euro has a 1060 hp coming down extended . That plays out the gulf Mexico will get our snow ...

The problem is it always seems to stay in the "extended."
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 02, 2021, 02:51:51 PM
I know the snow outputs on the deterministic models are coming and going and it gets a bit discouraging at times. But I just don't see how we don't end up with at least something over the next couple of weeks. The much maligned strat warming seems to have mostly locked in the -NAO, the flow is sending waves of moisture at regular intervals, and the biggie...we finally have serious cold either progged to settle in on us or at a minimum at least nearby available to be tapped.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 02, 2021, 03:04:28 PM
I think we are in a  great spot.  Take a blend of the GFS and EURO and bam.  Those temps in upper Midwest are remarkable if true.  Record remarkable.  It appears models are doing normal biases.  That cold air is coming.  That is first thing we need.  I would not sleep on this Sunday system.
I'm pessimistic. We went through this last year. Chicago set a new all time record low and somehow I never even got into the teens in actual winter. Coldest temp was 16 in November.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 02, 2021, 03:11:26 PM
I know the snow outputs on the deterministic models are coming and going and it gets a bit discouraging at times. But I just don't see how we don't end up with at least something over the next couple of weeks. The much maligned strat warming seems to have mostly locked in the -NAO, the flow is sending waves of moisture at regular intervals, and the biggie...we finally have serious cold either progged to settle in on us or at a minimum at least nearby available to be tapped.
Might also be seeing the La Ni
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 02, 2021, 03:17:20 PM
Curious Curt.  Not able to look but what kinda drop?  Enough for flash freeze?  Thank you in advance.
Here
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 02, 2021, 11:08:31 PM
If anyone is wondering if GFS had some magic for TN.  Well if like cold and dry for next 10 days.  Do I believe it?  Well how many times have we seen this play out?  Get cold air turns dry.  Moisture returns and just warm enough for cold rain.  Ensembles please show the way.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 03, 2021, 12:10:38 AM
Pretty typical I would say! Hurry up Spring!!!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 03, 2021, 02:00:33 AM
If anyone is wondering if GFS had some magic for TN.  Well if like cold and dry for next 10 days.  Do I believe it?  Well how many times have we seen this play out?  Get cold air turns dry.  Moisture returns and just warm enough for cold rain.  Ensembles please show the way.
well get ready for it. Because that
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 03, 2021, 04:25:29 AM
Usually, the best winter storms occur coming out of the pattern more so than going into the pattern. Doesn't mean we score obviously but something to keep in mind. 

For instance:
ULL Action of Early Feb 2011
March 4-5th 2015
Feb 28th-March 1st 2009
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 03, 2021, 05:17:27 AM
Y
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 03, 2021, 07:18:25 AM
Y
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 03, 2021, 07:28:38 AM
We are coming off 3 straight days of northerly flow, and the lowest temp we managed here was 27. That's pretty weak.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 03, 2021, 07:43:45 AM
Cold air looks to move around a little bit on Sunday morning, then late Monday the real push starts into west TN with some sleet and freezing rain on all 3 globals. The first push never makes it over the mountains until Thursday so places like GA and NC definitely look delayed for cold air. The first push is going to be colder NW than SE for sure. After that it invades pretty much everywhere. Where precip ends up after early week is anyone
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 03, 2021, 07:46:49 AM
We are coming off 3 straight days of northerly flow, and the lowest temp we managed here was 27. That's pretty weak.

This goes back to what some of us have been talking about in regards to January. The cold was on the other side of the globe and Canada, our cold source region, was pretty toasty (relatively). We are just now seeing parts of NW Canada go below normal temp wise, but snow pack is lacking up that way as well.

If models are correct, Canada is about to get very cold and it looks pretty likely that it is going to slide down in the lower 48.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 03, 2021, 08:24:17 AM
OHX:

Quote
As for Mon night into next Tue, consensus model blend solution
showing a significant change in moisture potential across mid
state region not only during this time frame, but as second half
of next work week initially progresses, as compared to this time
yesterday. Latest GFS solution now keeping mid state dry much of
next week with latest ECMWF advecting moisture, but much less
than this time yesterday, into mid state region.
Impacts from
strong artic high pressure influences looks now to push most
moisture potential well south of mid state region.
Upper levels
will be characterized by a non descriptive zonal flow pattern.
With all the above said, am not doing to do a total flip from
potentially a heavy snowfall event to no snowfall at all during
this time period. Am now leaning toward snowfall amounts from Mon
evening through just before sunrise on Thu to be an inch or two
at best.
Lows Mon night will range mid 20s north to approaching
30 south. Highs on Tue also look to be warmer than advertised
this time yesterday, ranging from upper 30s northwest to
approaching 50 south.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 03, 2021, 08:36:04 AM
This is what we're looking for.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 03, 2021, 08:37:49 AM
OHX:

what a shocker lol, thats why i have not commented on any of the "bitter cold coming" posts , it's been the same dance the past 3 years a week out models show bitter cold, and then it moderates ,I just don't fall for it unless its within a 4-5 day timeframe , 6 days plus is just totally guessing, thats why i always hated 7 day forecasts
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 03, 2021, 08:42:52 AM
This is what we're looking for.

This is the way...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/mqfJlEP69ZWKr0ERw2/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 03, 2021, 08:47:15 AM
what a shocker lol, thats why i have not commented on any of the "bitter cold coming" posts , it's been the same dance the past 3 years a week out models show bitter cold, and then it moderates ,I just don't fall for it unless its within a 4-5 day timeframe , 6 days plus is just totally guessing, thats why i always hated 7 day forecasts
see you finally showed up to the party... o wait minute... what party? Lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 03, 2021, 08:48:41 AM
My friends live in Indianapolis and their highs are going to be in the teens for like 7 straight days which is really cold even for them. The Zonal flow keeps the real cold just to our north with no trough for a storm or to bring the real cold further south


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 03, 2021, 09:07:04 AM
My friends live in Indianapolis and their highs are going to be in the teens for like 7 straight days which is really cold even for them. The Zonal flow keeps the real cold just to our north with no trough for a storm or to bring the real cold further south


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Yeah once you get just north of louisville ky is usually as far south as the BRUTAL air gets and by brutal i mean lows below zero and highs in singe digits or teens....yes it happens here but not frequently at all, people would be surprised at how cold indy usually gets every year
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 03, 2021, 09:41:25 AM
OHX discussion

Womp Womp. We all knew this was the likely outcome, but it still hurts. Always will.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 03, 2021, 09:43:08 AM
Another very informative update from BAM:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?hd=1&v=Jf6niwytA8c&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BAMWX (https://www.youtube.com/watch?hd=1&v=Jf6niwytA8c&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BAMWX)

Their focus is midwest and Ohio Valley and they are VERY bullish on snow and cold into March for them. I'm going with delayed but not denied for us. Should have a great snowpack just to our north, so hopefully we pop a good one sometime in the next two-three weeks while its still cold enough to enjoy it.

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 03, 2021, 09:57:44 AM
Another very informative update from BAM:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?hd=1&v=Jf6niwytA8c&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BAMWX (https://www.youtube.com/watch?hd=1&v=Jf6niwytA8c&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BAMWX)

Their focus is midwest and Ohio Valley and they are VERY bullish on snow and cold into March for them. I'm going with delayed but not denied for us. Should have a great snowpack just to our north, so hopefully we pop a good one sometime in the next two-three weeks while its still cold enough to enjoy it.
I had just logged in to post this link.  Let's hope the Ohio Valley pattern throws us a few scraps in a week or two.  The zonal flow across the South depicted in their discussion won't give us much more than that.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 03, 2021, 10:16:10 AM
12z GFS brings back the moisture for next week but is too warm.  NW corner gets clipped with frozen but the rest is rain.  On to the 12z Euro.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 03, 2021, 10:33:37 AM
Good grief at the GFS day 8 to 10.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 03, 2021, 10:36:33 AM
I feel that the models these days are just terrible compared to years ago.  It was nice when we had only forecast out to 5 days.  Even 5 day forecast are sketchy these days.  Seems more technology the worse the models have gotten. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 03, 2021, 10:38:21 AM
Good grief at the GFS day 8 to 10.

It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 03, 2021, 10:42:00 AM
Another very informative update from BAM:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?hd=1&v=Jf6niwytA8c&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BAMWX (https://www.youtube.com/watch?hd=1&v=Jf6niwytA8c&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BAMWX)

Their focus is midwest and Ohio Valley and they are VERY bullish on snow and cold into March for them. I'm going with delayed but not denied for us. Should have a great snowpack just to our north, so hopefully we pop a good one sometime in the next two-three weeks while its still cold enough to enjoy it.

If the 12Z GFS is to be believed the snowpack will be to our south.  ::cliff::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 03, 2021, 10:49:52 AM
If the 12Z GFS is to be believed the snowpack will be to our south.  ::cliff::
yeah. Can you say suppression...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 03, 2021, 10:50:57 AM
Good grief at the GFS day 8 to 10.
The 6z was across Tennessee with that same band.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 03, 2021, 10:55:56 AM
 ::rofl:: ::rofl::


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 03, 2021, 11:01:45 AM
::rofl:: ::rofl::


(Attachment Link)
I marked my house with a small red line (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210203/8f7f8864b03170f5d9f0e09dc6c4d89a.jpg)

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 03, 2021, 11:07:18 AM
Just need a northwest trend that's all! LOL!  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 03, 2021, 11:15:15 AM
::rofl:: ::rofl::


(Attachment Link)
may be time take a snow chase to Jackson Mississippi lol...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 03, 2021, 11:16:57 AM
I think the models have no idea past 2 or 3 days right now. I watched James Spann this morning and he said confidence was very low on anything all next week as far as weather and temps


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 03, 2021, 11:19:15 AM
Just need a northwest trend that's all! LOL!  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
I having a feeling its going to be a battleground in our area Snowman. I think we will have multiple chances for winter weather.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 03, 2021, 11:22:42 AM
I having a feeling its going to be a battleground in our area Snowman. I think we will have multiple chances for winter weather.
I agree with this take


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 03, 2021, 11:26:43 AM
The fact that I am in the Ohio valley over week 2-3 concerns me. Lots of outcomes on which region really cashes out. However I believe the Midwest and Ohio Valley are not done by any means. With strong high pressure being depicted, low level cold air will eventually meet SW flow once we can something to dive deep into the plains. Models are changing drastically past 120hr still. As we have seen all Winter, most of our storms are sneaking up in the short term.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 03, 2021, 11:30:13 AM
Queue meltdown at Talkweather in 3....2.....
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 03, 2021, 11:32:09 AM
Queue meltdown at Talkweather in 3....2.....
dont know man.this just might be their year
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 03, 2021, 11:32:17 AM
::rofl:: ::rofl::


(Attachment Link)

LOL at the Memphis to Nashville corridor.  ::shrug:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 03, 2021, 11:33:39 AM
dont know man.this just might be their year

Even with empirical and irrefutable evidence, I refuse to believe that.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 03, 2021, 11:46:58 AM
Queue meltdown at Talkweather in 3....2.....

Talkweather is a shell of what it once was and mostly dead. Most of those folks moved over to SouthernWx.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 03, 2021, 11:54:01 AM
Talkweather is a shell of what it once was and mostly dead. Most of those folks moved over to SouthernWx.

And SouthernWx is mostly a cesspool.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 03, 2021, 11:56:47 AM
Talkweather is a shell of what it once was and mostly dead. Most of those folks moved over to SouthernWx.
talk weather is more on the severe weather stuff now . Good post over there on that
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 03, 2021, 11:57:37 AM
Even with empirical and irrefutable evidence, I refuse to believe that.
Time to redirect the space lasers.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 03, 2021, 12:01:04 PM
Good grief at the GFS day 8 to 10.

If you look at hour 160ish on the GFS, that is about what you would expect with the MJO in 6/7 (cold in the NW, southeast ridge, and a battleground in between). After that is just the GFS being the GFS and it quickly just dumps the cold east and south. Now, maybe that is correct with the AO/NAO overpowering the signal, but I'm not sold just yet.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 03, 2021, 12:06:19 PM
Talkweather is a shell of what it once was and mostly dead. Most of those folks moved over to SouthernWx.

Honestly, I can't tell you the last time I visited TW.  A year maybe?  Two? 

I remember them having infrastructure issues (I think?) and it took a while to get back online.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 03, 2021, 12:09:03 PM
If you look at hour 160ish on the GFS, that is about what you would expect with the MJO in 6/7 (cold in the NW, southeast ridge, and a battleground in between). After that is just the GFS being the GFS and it quickly just dumps the cold east and south. Now, maybe that is correct with the AO/NAO overpowering the signal, but I'm not sold just yet.
it would be awsome if we could go under a split flow pattern the next 7 to 10 days ... wow
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 03, 2021, 12:10:11 PM
I think the models have no idea past 2 or 3 days right now. I watched James Spann this morning and he said confidence was very low on anything all next week as far as weather and temps

I would say that is the rational approach currently. Everyone needs to take a deep breath and let it evolve.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 03, 2021, 12:21:18 PM
New GFS is much better for next Tuesday.  And Bamwx is say several snows for us in next few weeks. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on February 03, 2021, 12:43:47 PM
Lol at the Euro. What cold?? As per usual I just have to sit back and watch the disappoinment unfold.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 03, 2021, 01:04:35 PM
Lol at the Euro. What cold?? As per usual I just have to sit back and watch the disappoinment unfold.

I mean there are -20 departures over middle TN by the end of the run.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: justinmundie on February 03, 2021, 01:04:50 PM
If I had to guess right now, someone in the south is gonna get some freezing rain in the next 10-12 days. Just depends how far south and east the low level cold gets.

And as usual, the models have no clue.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 03, 2021, 01:07:52 PM
I just read a post of a very reliable poster who said he just got word the GFS has basically been down the past 24 hours with any accurate info. Guess we will see if that creates any changes. He thinks it will in a better way for those who want snow


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 03, 2021, 01:09:59 PM
This may be why James Spann said models for next week had a very low confidence rate


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 03, 2021, 01:20:19 PM
I mean there are -20 departures over middle TN by the end of the run.
yeah but timing just keeps getting pushed back. Are we going kick cans  down the road again ?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 03, 2021, 01:24:44 PM
Remember the mirage stays at 8-10 days.  Severe wx the euro paints along the coast for you Bruce!  Lol.  Days getting longer and sun brighter.  Birds are starting to come back.  Come on spring!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: AdamLewis on February 03, 2021, 01:26:36 PM
Hello Valentine's Day from the GFS!

EURO has it further south.

Can we get that to bump north a bit?!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 03, 2021, 01:28:21 PM
yeah but timing just keeps getting pushed back. Are we going kick cans  down the road again ?

Lets take the storm that was depicted a couple days ago on the Euro that buried us. Today, at hour 132, it is tracking well to our NW with snow from St Louis to Chicago.

Why? Because the model was too fast with the cold and set the track too far south.

Now, look at hour 204. Once again the model has likely pushed the cold too fast and set the track too far south. In 2 or 3 days, if that is the case, we could possibly see a much better track just south of us...or if the SE ridge flexes more than anticipated it tracks over us or just to our north.

Eventually the MJO hopefully progresses toward 8 and we see that cold push south and east and we get a beneficial track before it goes full suppression.

We shall see.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 03, 2021, 01:32:57 PM
I've pretty much stopped looking at the models but once a day, usually after a good drink.  With all the wild flip flopping like a fish out of water they are doing currently, it's not good for one's emotional well-being.  And, it's one way to avoid the "Gnashing of Teeth" thread. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 03, 2021, 01:54:30 PM
Honestly, I can't tell you the last time I visited TW.  A year maybe?  Two? 

I remember them having infrastructure issues (I think?) and it took a while to get back online.

From what I could tell or recall, the crash was catastrophic, and they never got the original forum back up. Seems like the forum was rebooted as a new forum, and the url name transferred to a different admin. During the down time (which was on the order of weeks or even months), some former members of TW started up SWx, and a lot of people who had been at TW before the crash started up accounts at SWx.

By the time the "new" TW was up, the new SWx forum was going strong. The people who had all moved over were settled, and most of them never really returned to TW from what I could tell... especially the AL-GA-NC winter weenie caucus, who had been the really active ones on TW. So, when you go to SWx now, it looks like the old TW... the same bunch.

The current admin of TW seems to hold really tight reins on things from what I can tell... he's funny about even letting people post links. That probably also stunts participation somewhat... all the while the really active folks, especially winter weather fan types, seem to be at home at SWx now.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 03, 2021, 02:14:55 PM
From what I could tell or recall, the crash was catastrophic, and they never got the original forum back up. Seems like the forum was rebooted as a new forum, and the url name transferred to a different admin. During the down time (which was on the order of weeks or even months), some former members of TW started up SWx, and a lot of people who had been at TW before the crash started up accounts at SWx.

By the time the "new" TW was up, the new SWx forum was going strong. The people who had all moved over were settled, and most of them never really returned to TW from what I could tell... especially the AL-GA-NC winter weenie caucus, who had been the really active ones on TW. So, when you go to SWx now, it looks like the old TW... the same bunch.

The current admin of TW seems to hold really tight reins on things from what I can tell... he's funny about even letting people post links. That probably also stunts participation somewhat... all the while the really active folks, especially winter weather fan types, seem to be at home at SWx now.
i go  hang out over there during severe season or pre severe season . Fred Andy among others
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 03, 2021, 02:53:18 PM
Looks like we are indeed going to put the delayed but not denied mantra to the test. We've lost the significant cold early next week, but the longer range looks much colder:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtVD3adXEAEqV0P?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 03, 2021, 02:55:19 PM
Just for fun, the 12Z Canadian has a high of 0 next Saturday here.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 03, 2021, 03:04:29 PM
OHX:

Quote
On Monday night, and cold front will move through the area, and we
will stay with a general northerly LL flow into late week as a
SFC/LL high crosses the OH valley. Upper flow remains fairly
benign but weak disturbances will pass from time to time. Our
temps will be cold most of the time although the operational
EURO/GFS trending slightly warmer. We will see scattered rain/snow
showers much of the period but probabilistic snowfall above one
inch really stays north of us through that period. There however
is at least a small chance right now of accum an inch or above
early Tuesday.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 03, 2021, 03:13:47 PM
Going to be great weekend to get outdoors. Wash my vehicles for first time in forever.  Near 60 on Sunday!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 03, 2021, 03:14:59 PM
James Spann made a good comment on the wild model changes on his afternoon update.  Sunday-Monday Alabama was shown to be in the grips of an Arctic outbreak a few days ago, but they now expect lower 60's on Monday.  That's some flip-flopping.

However, he did make a point--that "all the players are on the field."  Very cold air in Siberia and Canada.  It's got to go somewhere.  And a very active sub-tropical jet.

Honestly, this is starting to feel similar to February 2015.  There was very little winter weather up to that point in 2015, then all Arctic broke lose for two weeks about mid-February.  Signs point to something similar.  Will it happen?  Maybe.  The models keep trying to lock in on "something" out there.  They may just be off by a week or so.   ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 03, 2021, 03:24:52 PM
First time I've seen this on the NWS site at MRX just now.  Saw something called a "Law Enforcement Warning."

Quote
Law Enforcement Warning

When I clicked on it, nothing was there.  Gives me the heebie jeebies after 2020.

https://www.weather.gov/mrx/ (https://www.weather.gov/mrx/)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 03, 2021, 03:27:56 PM
First time I've seen this on the NWS site at MRX just now.  Saw something called a "Law Enforcement Warning."

When I clicked on it, nothing was there.  Gives me the heebie jeebies after 2020.

"A warning of a bomb explosion, riot, or other criminal event (e.g. a jailbreak). An authorized law enforcement agency may blockade roads, waterways, or facilities, evacuate or deny access to affected areas, and arrest violators or suspicious persons."

From https://www.weather.gov/meg/nonwxrelatedemergmesg

Admittedly, that's a new one for me, too.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on February 03, 2021, 03:31:03 PM
First time I've seen this on the NWS site at MRX just now.  Saw something called a "Law Enforcement Warning."

When I clicked on it, nothing was there.  Gives me the heebie jeebies after 2020.
I don't know if it's related but I saw an article this morning that they were investigating a cut fence at a detention facility in Chattanooga. I wonder if the alert was something connected to an escape.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 03, 2021, 03:31:23 PM
"A warning of a bomb explosion, riot, or other criminal event (e.g. a jailbreak). An authorized law enforcement agency may blockade roads, waterways, or facilities, evacuate or deny access to affected areas, and arrest violators or suspicious persons."

From https://www.weather.gov/meg/nonwxrelatedemergmesg

Admittedly, that's a new one for me, too.

Thanks for the info, Eric.  Still a bit unsettling.  I'm not sure why they have that up on their site, along with other warnings and watches (high wind watch for the Smokies.)  A test of the Law Enforcement Warning system?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 03, 2021, 03:34:25 PM
I don't know if it's related but I saw an article this morning that they were investigating a cut fence at a detention facility in Chattanooga. I wonder if the alert was something connected to an escape.

It could be connected, but no information was given.  Perhaps it's dated.

I guess we can return to our regularly scheduled program already in progress. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 03, 2021, 04:32:37 PM
Just for fun, the 12Z Canadian has a high of 0 next Saturday here.
6 AM Saturday at Memphis, GFS has 14, Euro has 17, and Canadian has -5

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 03, 2021, 04:57:05 PM
I've noticed a definite shift in the sunset tonight (I watch where it sets behind certain trees), and I welcome it.  Longer days in the Sun are always welcome.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 03, 2021, 06:49:16 PM
6 AM Saturday at Memphis, GFS has 14, Euro has 17, and Canadian has -5

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Cold and dry.  Sounds like Mid TN and west TN winter wx.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 03, 2021, 08:49:11 PM
Cold and dry.  Sounds like Mid TN and west TN winter wx.

Fake news, warm and cold.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 03, 2021, 09:42:59 PM
Fake news, warm and cold.
warm n wet...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 03, 2021, 10:54:50 PM
Just the 0z GFS playing with my emotions (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210204/6db8eb55363c216b518c894853fa7dac.jpg)

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 03, 2021, 11:28:52 PM
Now this resembles the GEFS mean which is a more believable solution.

(https://i.imgur.com/EnR3wVM.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 03, 2021, 11:36:49 PM
Now this resembles the GEFS mean which is a more believable solution.

(https://i.imgur.com/EnR3wVM.png)

Don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 03, 2021, 11:43:43 PM
We still haven't got the right setup for a winter storm yet. Unfortunately.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 03, 2021, 11:51:28 PM
We still haven't got the right setup for a winter storm yet. Unfortunately.  ::shrug::

Models are saying overrunning is in the cards next week.  So who knows. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: memphishogfan on February 04, 2021, 12:31:01 AM

However, he did make a point--that "all the players are on the field."  Very cold air in Siberia and Canada.  It's got to go somewhere.  And a very active sub-tropical jet.


Our luck it all sucks up and falls into Europe. Seems to be the case the last few years.


I do remember that 2015 feb/early march. Moved to NEA with a foot of snow on the ground in early March.

Seems
Like that storm brought a sleet fest and 5 inches
Of snow to Memphis.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: memphishogfan on February 04, 2021, 01:00:21 AM
I actually went back in my post history and found that old thread.

 https://tennesseewx.com/index.php?topic=3630.150 (https://tennesseewx.com/index.php?topic=3630.150)

I forgot how bad Nashville got shafted during that week.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 01:10:09 AM
Well Dr. No says the Deep South will be happy.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 04, 2021, 01:48:01 AM
Our luck it all sucks up and falls into Europe. Seems to be the case the last few years.


I do remember that 2015 feb/early march. Moved to NEA with a foot of snow on the ground in early March.

Seems
Like that storm brought a sleet fest and 5 inches
Of snow to Memphis.
because it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 04, 2021, 04:35:51 AM
I actually went back in my post history and found that old thread.

 https://tennesseewx.com/index.php?topic=3630.150 (https://tennesseewx.com/index.php?topic=3630.150)

I forgot how bad Nashville got shafted during that week.

The March system is in the hall of fame if you want to seek that out.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 04, 2021, 06:19:08 AM
Well Dr. No says the Deep South will be happy.
Check out the EPS. Nothing like that whatsoever. I wouldn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 04, 2021, 07:46:12 AM
I actually went back in my post history and found that old thread.

 https://tennesseewx.com/index.php?topic=3630.150 (https://tennesseewx.com/index.php?topic=3630.150)

I forgot how bad Nashville got shafted during that week.

It's hard to believe the Nashville area folks didn't give up completely after the Jan/Feb 2014 and February 2015 debacles. Feb 2015 was -9.2 for the month but failed reach average snowfall with four "events" all of less than one inch.  That's stunning ineptness! ::bangingheadintowall:: ::shrug::
Nashville may lead the nation at reliably getting nuisance snows.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2021, 08:08:03 AM
I'm just going to say it with no particular facts to back it up- I have a theory that long range models are biased by the "old climate" rules. As we get closer range, they correct, and the more realistic picture emerges.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 08:11:18 AM
6z GFS with a crazy new look for Sat/Sun that is neither backed up by previous runs, the Euro, or the NAM.  There's so much energy flying around I'm not sure the models know what to do with it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 04, 2021, 08:34:07 AM
12Z NAM joins the 06Z GFS with a little Saturday evening surprise:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021020412/namconus_ref_frzn_seus_44.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 08:39:17 AM
12Z NAM joins the 06Z GFS with a little Saturday evening surprise:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021020412/namconus_ref_frzn_seus_44.png)

That's a new look, too, unsupported by previous runs.  So the 6z GFS sees it, the 12z NAM12 sees it, does the 12z Euro see it?  Guess we'll find out.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Sbeagles on February 04, 2021, 08:49:48 AM
12z nam would be another win for the mountains. Interesting changes on 06z gfs and 12z nam
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 08:54:52 AM
I'm just going to say it with no particular facts to back it up- I have a theory that long range models are biased by the "old climate" rules. As we get closer range, they correct, and the more realistic picture emerges.

Just a tidbit on verification to piggy back on your post, the new GFS or GFS-P as many call it, has actually been scoring up there with the Euro this winter. So it is probably much more reliable than the current GFS.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 04, 2021, 08:59:38 AM
Interesting discussion about the upcoming pattern. I think he needed to turn up the volume on his mic.

https://youtu.be/9rRuoSj7v7c (https://youtu.be/9rRuoSj7v7c)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 04, 2021, 09:29:27 AM
Where does one view data for the EPO?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Michael on February 04, 2021, 09:42:13 AM
My. What a sudden turn of events on 6z and 12z runs. If GFS follows suit for Sunday, I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 09:46:08 AM
My. What a sudden turn of events on 6z and 12z runs. If GFS follows suit for Sunday, I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Scot on February 04, 2021, 09:50:12 AM
Like the looks of the 12z GFS for this weekend.  What a change.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 09:53:44 AM
12z GFS

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020412/075/snod.us_ov.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 04, 2021, 10:05:04 AM
12z GFS Par     https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021020412&fh=72&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 04, 2021, 10:09:44 AM
New GFS v16:
(https://i.imgur.com/nvUWd6Z.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 04, 2021, 10:15:05 AM
New GFS v16:
(https://i.imgur.com/nvUWd6Z.png)

basically models have NO clue what will happen next few days
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 04, 2021, 10:20:57 AM
That's a new look, too, unsupported by previous runs.  So the 6z GFS sees it, the 12z NAM12 sees it, does the 12z Euro see it?  Guess we'll find out.

6Z run of the Euro made this move as well Eric. Pretty significant change from 00Z..


(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/se/precip_24hr_inch/1612396800/1612699200-mADghq6mLQ8.png)
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/se/precip_24hr_inch/1612418400/1612699200-G8vFr0yOdX8.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 10:22:11 AM
GFS-P definitely dancing to its own music like it just don't care...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/iiGBtyGm5R960/giphy.gif)

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 04, 2021, 10:29:01 AM
12z GFS has events nearly statewide on 7th,10th and 12th. Can't wait to see precip maps and ensembles from that run. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 04, 2021, 10:29:54 AM
The fact that I am in the Ohio valley over week 2-3 concerns me. Lots of outcomes on which region really cashes out. However I believe the Midwest and Ohio Valley are not done by any means. With strong high pressure being depicted, low level cold air will eventually meet SW flow once we can something to dive deep into the plains. Models are changing drastically past 120hr still. As we have seen all Winter, most of our storms are sneaking up in the short term.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 04, 2021, 10:33:03 AM
12z GFS has events nearly statewide on 7th,10th and 12th. Can't wait to see precip maps and ensembles from that run. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
No doubt about it, the 12Z GFS is coming in hot.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 04, 2021, 10:37:08 AM
After the weekend, GFS has the cold push occurring Monday into Tuesday. The core of the below freezing weather stays closer to middle and west at that point although east is definitely chilly. Much of AL/ GA/Carolinas just doesn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 10:52:14 AM
I am still planning of washing my vehicles this weekend in 55 sunny wx!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 04, 2021, 10:59:15 AM
I am still planning of washing my vehicles this weekend in 55 sunny wx!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 11:01:21 AM
perhaps chasing a few unicorns ... ::pondering::
Maybe pissing off winter! 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 11:08:38 AM
6Z run of the Euro made this move as well Eric. Pretty significant change from 00Z..


(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/se/precip_24hr_inch/1612396800/1612699200-mADghq6mLQ8.png)
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/se/precip_24hr_inch/1612418400/1612699200-G8vFr0yOdX8.png)

The 12z Euro around lunchtime...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/WRLVrUYjldPGcwuq3N/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 11:20:42 AM
With the temps showing later next week.  An ice storm would be catastrophic.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 04, 2021, 11:30:57 AM
With the temps showing later next week.  An ice storm would be catastrophic.
if the frontal boundary barely makes it through our area. That
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 04, 2021, 11:38:06 AM
if the frontal boundary barely makes it through our area. That
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 04, 2021, 11:41:04 AM
The GFS and CMC continue to be worlds apart. The new GFS seems to be in the middle of these two. Looks to be a lot of opportunities the next 10 days. Just need things to fall in place.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 04, 2021, 11:43:51 AM
The GFS and CMC continue to be worlds apart. The new GFS seems to be in the middle of these two. Looks to be a lot of opportunities the next 10 days. Just need things to fall in place.

I suspect we do not have our final version in yet. OHX is likely waiting till 00Z tonight to make any drastic changes in their forecast.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 04, 2021, 12:00:39 PM
if the frontal boundary barely makes it through our area. That
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 12:09:41 PM
For BNA Sunday:

12z GFS16, 31 degrees and snow
12z Euro, 38 degrees and rain

No agreement yet.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 12:14:37 PM
For BNA Sunday:

12z GFS16, 31 degrees and snow
12z Euro, 38 degrees and rain

No agreement yet.

12z NAM12, 35F and RA/SN mix.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 04, 2021, 12:16:48 PM
For BNA Sunday:

12z GFS16, 31 degrees and snow
12z Euro, 38 degrees and rain

No agreement yet.

But they are much closer than they were. Euro really moved towards the GFS. It may end up to be 38 degree showers, but its an amazing difference from where we were yesterday considering this is only 2.5 days out. As Matthew pointed out there are a whole lot of folks planning on sunny and 50s on Sunday. Now it looks like snow on the ground and 30s is possible. Huge potential shift!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 12:20:46 PM
Well that sunny and 55 disappeared quickly.  Well forecast is easy.  34-36 with mixed precip lol.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 04, 2021, 12:25:25 PM
Well that sunny and 55 disappeared quickly.  Well forecast is easy.  34-36 with mixed precip lol.
That seems to be the consensus between them 2 models right now.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 12:29:13 PM
Anything on Sunday would be a nice surprise.  We all did not expect anything till next week if we did receive anything. I would take an appetizer most certainly.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 04, 2021, 12:31:57 PM
For that weekend system, the Para -GFS led the way over the Euro for sure.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 12:39:14 PM
For that weekend system, the Para -GFS led the way over the Euro for sure.

It did. Para shows roughly .7" QPF vs .1" QPF Euro, for BNA. I just really question that Para solution, from temp to QPF, moreso than Euro at this point.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Susan on February 04, 2021, 12:40:53 PM
The 4 - 5 day range is always screwy for all of the models. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 04, 2021, 12:43:36 PM
Maybe the 00z runs tonight will give us a better ideal on the temps for this weekend.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 12:45:18 PM
Long range Euro teasing TN again.

I like the 11th-13th timeframe for something decent here in middle TN.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 04, 2021, 12:46:26 PM
Nice overrunning statewide on the 12z EURO - still a week out. Much further north than other previous runs.

That run has a general 2-4 along 40 and falling at temps if 15-20 degrees. Talk about high ratios. About 0.2 in QPF falls as snow which means higher snow amounts than are indicated by standard 10:1. There is a major ice storm in MS.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 12:49:06 PM
It was posted by another knowledgeable individual that the Para has been on fire this winter.  Also that the Euro and GFS to some extent have not be initiating with enough amp in these systems.  Now is that for sure.  Who knows. The Para may just be leading the way so far.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 12:57:48 PM
Mid AL yikes.  That
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 12:59:27 PM
For those wanting artic cold, it's parked over TN for a couple days in the long range Euro.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 01:05:48 PM
For those wanting artic cold, it's parked over TN for a couple days in the long range Euro.

With snow on the ground!  ::wow::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: WXHD on February 04, 2021, 01:15:05 PM
Mid AL yikes.  That
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 04, 2021, 01:18:46 PM
It was posted by another knowledgeable individual that the Para

Is the GFS-para the same thing as the the 16? Newb question.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 01:21:06 PM
There
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 04, 2021, 01:23:29 PM
I just hope that southern ice fest shown on the Euro longer range doesn't succumb to the northwest trend and end up over TN.  No ice would be nice, please. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 04, 2021, 01:26:18 PM
There
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 04, 2021, 01:28:19 PM
yeah fearing major ice here for sure ... tricky

One of my shot-in-the-dark predictions for this winter was that Tennessee witnesses its first major ice storm since '15.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Drifter on February 04, 2021, 01:28:36 PM


For those wanting attic cold, it's parked over TN for a couple days in the long range Euro.

Fixed it


Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 04, 2021, 01:29:03 PM
Wowzers.  Just noticed my temp is only 35 right now, and the forecast high was 46.  Makes me wonder what's going to fall when the precipitation begins. 

MRX updated graphics now say a light mix will fall as the precipitation begins. 

(http://www.weather.gov/images//mrx/graphicast/image1.png?2257831815648225c87494aa4c071500)

Dewpoint is 27, so sleet would be a good possibility.  Now, sleet is a type of "ice" I can deal with.  It bounces rather than sticks. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 01:33:57 PM
One of my shot-in-the-dark predictions for this winter was that Tennessee witnesses its first major heavy snow storm since '15. With over a foot of snow

Fixed this also
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 01:34:02 PM
Call me crazy, but I like the chaos.

<warning: reminiscing ahead>

Back when I was a kid in late 80's, I remember watching the local weather, usually around 15 to 20 minutes after the hour, just hoping to see a snowflake show up in day 5 and the host would hint that they may have to watch for some winter mischief in a few days. Then the next day it may turn in to a mix by day 4. Then usually rain by day 3 but every now and again that snowflake would show back up and it was on...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 01:34:54 PM
Is the GFS-para the same thing as the the 16? Newb question.

It is.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 01:37:14 PM
I just hope that southern ice fest shown on the Euro longer range doesn't succumb to the northwest trend and end up over TN.  No ice would be nice, please.

I've spent what feels like half the year out of power between naders and derechos, thrown out the stuff in my fridge twice, so why not an ice storm too.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 04, 2021, 01:37:38 PM
4 days into February and we already have 28 pages. We are desperate.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 04, 2021, 01:40:05 PM
One of my shot-in-the-dark predictions for this winter was that Tennessee witnesses its first major ice storm since '15.
I just hope for sleet over alot of freezing rain. Hopefully if we are on winter side of things it's mostly snow. Now for ideal sleeding, a little freezing rain then a little sleet and then a good snowpack makes for most ideal conditions. Just hate to see see a major ice storm, especially for the elderly. Even though I do find a certain beauty in the them I also worry about the elderly and power major power outages in potential severe cold weather. Sleet is the worst for driving, but not losing power. So if we are going to have alot of ice, I always prefer sleet. Let is snow!!!! ::popcorn::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Drifter on February 04, 2021, 01:41:56 PM
I just hope for sleet over alot of freezing rain. Hopefully if we are on winter side of things it's mostly snow. Now for ideal sleeding, a little freezing rain then a little sleet and then a good snowpack makes for most ideal conditions. Just hate to see see a major ice storm, especially for the elderly. Even though I do find a certain beauty in the them and I worry about the elderly and power major power outages. Sleet is the worst for driving, but not losing power. So if we are going to have alot of ice, I always prefer sleet. Let is snow!!!! ::popcorn::  ::snowman::
Sleet is how things roll from Clarksville to Dyersburg. Get ready Snowman!

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Drifter on February 04, 2021, 01:43:06 PM
4 days into February and we already have 28 pages. We are desperate.
I'm betting on over 100 by the end of the month.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 04, 2021, 01:43:29 PM
I've spent what feels like half the year out of power between naders and derechos, thrown out the stuff in my fridge twice, so why not an ice storm too.

Living underneath several large oak and hickory trees influences my perspective on the "ice" thing.   ::rain::

And the 'nader thing, too.
 ::twister::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 04, 2021, 01:55:34 PM
I just hope for sleet over alot of freezing rain. Hopefully if we are on winter side of things it's mostly snow. Now for ideal sleeding, a little freezing rain then a little sleet and then a good snowpack makes for most ideal conditions. Just hate to see see a major ice storm, especially for the elderly. Even though I do find a certain beauty in the them I also worry about the elderly and power major power outages in potential severe cold weather. Sleet is the worst for driving, but not losing power. So if we are going to have alot of ice, I always prefer sleet. Let is snow!!!! ::popcorn::  ::snowman::
I believe we all want some snow but living in the south as we all know we seem to get that warm nose from sw flow
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 04, 2021, 01:59:47 PM
I've spent what feels like half the year out of power between naders and derechos, thrown out the stuff in my fridge twice, so why not an ice storm too.
How you think us in jonesboro feel with a big tornado that wiped out about half the town last March? Luckily everything was shut down to an extent due to covid19,  which probably saved 100 lives
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 02:28:13 PM
18z NAM12....

(https://media.giphy.com/media/mks5DcSGjhQ1a/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 04, 2021, 02:28:32 PM
How you think us in jonesboro feel with a big tornado that wiped out about half the town last March? Luckily everything was shut down to an extent due to covid19,  which probably saved 100 lives

Both your town and snowdog's town were hit hard with a tornado last year. 3 died in Mt. Juilet on that fateful night.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 04, 2021, 02:28:41 PM
18Z NAM

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021020418/namconus_ref_frzn_seus_42.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 02:31:24 PM
Looks suspiciously like a cold-air-chasing-precip scenario, but the precip shield seems to be overrunning the cold air.  Elevation will be critical come this weekend, especially if the temps do what the latest few runs of guidance suggest.  Could be significant splat:melt outside the Plateau.

(https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021020418/060/snodpc_acc.us_ov.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 04, 2021, 02:49:32 PM
Pretty phenomenal (even if it doesn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 02:57:13 PM
Looks suspiciously like a cold-air-chasing-precip scenario, but the precip shield seems to be overrunning the cold air.  Elevation will be critical come this weekend, especially if the temps do what the latest few runs of guidance suggest.  Could be significant splat:melt outside the Plateau.

Looking at NAM 3k and you have the southern stream energy pulling out of the station and the northern stream energy sort of chasing it. If the southern energy was just a littttttle slower...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 03:01:59 PM
Looking more and more like an East TN special. 18z 12kNAM shows 6 to 7" verbatim for Knoxville and TRI.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 04, 2021, 03:06:43 PM
The guy I listen to in Johnson City, who really does a good job predicting weather for our area, just said right now the snow amounts look very similar to Christmas Eve. We got 6.5 inches then. By tomorrow it will probably be gone again


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 04, 2021, 03:07:44 PM
I've spent what feels like half the year out of power between naders and derechos, thrown out the stuff in my fridge twice, so why not an ice storm too.
Same here.  We have a pole at the end of the street that goes off quite regularly.  Only 8 houses on our street are on that pole.  So if a large outage occurs in Dickson, guess who
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 04, 2021, 03:25:18 PM
MRX's take on weekend system:

Quote
The strength and duration of moisture advection and overall forcing will
be determined by whether or not the features actually phase, so
stayed with NBM slight chance PoPs Sat night/Sun morning, but
blended WPC QPF with the GFS/ECMWF QPF to take into account some of
the higher QPF probabilities. In terms of snowfall amounts, the
aforementioned surface temps above freezing at the onset will lead
to a rain/snow mix, but expect a quick transition to snow by late
evening as the lower levels cool, possibly aided by dynamic cooling
and wet bulbing. The temp profile and WPC/GFS/ECMWF blended QPF
yields 0.5 to 2 inches of snow, which is a reasonable starting point
based on the flip flopping guidance. This system will quickly exit
NE Sun afternoon with dry conditions and highs only in the low/mid
40`s behind the associated cold front.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 04, 2021, 03:33:27 PM
Looking more and more like an East TN special. 18z 12kNAM shows 6 to 7" verbatim for Knoxville and TRI.

RGEM has all of a sudden picked it up as well, but you are right, another east TN special.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2021020418/rgem_asnow_seus_78.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 04, 2021, 03:37:54 PM
I'm not quite sold on it yet, since temperatures are borderline.  One thing going for it is timing, since the bulk of the moisture is coming through overnight.  A few degrees could make all the difference on what hits the ground.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 04, 2021, 03:41:53 PM
Slight Risk for heavy snow next week according to the CPC(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210204/40393ceab9a95c5ed6423b30d451560d.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: WXHD on February 04, 2021, 03:45:24 PM
I've spent what feels like half the year out of power between naders and derechos, thrown out the stuff in my fridge twice, so why not an ice storm too.

I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 03:48:35 PM
Slight Risk for heavy snow next week according to the CPC(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210204/40393ceab9a95c5ed6423b30d451560d.jpg)

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Haven't seen one of those employed around here in a LONNNGGGG time.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 04, 2021, 03:53:04 PM
Haven't seen one of those employed around here in a LONNNGGGG time.

(https://i.imgflip.com/4wqice.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 04, 2021, 03:55:35 PM
And the cold air is coming (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210204/f502747cbac86067301ed0e5663f2a8e.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210204/83a9ec688e44021bf979fd36eb7ec08f.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 04, 2021, 04:06:04 PM
Slight Risk for heavy snow next week according to the CPC(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210204/40393ceab9a95c5ed6423b30d451560d.jpg)

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

and once again a lot of TN would get screwed and B-ham get plastered with that , I would rather everybody get nothing than to see people south of us get good snow LOL
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 04, 2021, 04:13:50 PM
and once again a lot of TN would get screwed and B-ham get plastered with that , I would rather everybody get nothing than to see people south of us get good snow LOL

Call me bitter but missing a storm to the south is infuriating, especially since south of Memphis has gotten more snow than Memphis in the past 5 years. I'm with you.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 04, 2021, 04:18:31 PM
Slight Risk for heavy snow next week according to the CPC(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210204/40393ceab9a95c5ed6423b30d451560d.jpg)

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers
That map especially for Alabama and Georgia is already outdated.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 04:20:25 PM
18z GFS coming in hot...

Going to be a lot of splat:melt on the front end, but there could be some wet-bulbing that could help alleviate that. 

*obvious caveats of the 18z suites, notwithstanding*

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_10.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_11.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020418/gfs_asnow_seus_12.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 04:27:21 PM
And that storm depicted next Friday....  ::wow:: ::wow:: ::wow::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 04, 2021, 04:29:31 PM
And that's an ice storm

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 04:38:44 PM
GFS shows roughly .35" freezing rain for BNA and 0.4" for Murfreesboro
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 04, 2021, 04:54:44 PM
I think the GFS is the coldest run that I have ever seen.  ::faint::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 04, 2021, 04:56:20 PM
GFS shows roughly .35" freezing rain for BNA and 0.4" for Murfreesboro

yet is it just me or is euro in our favor now ? who knows what is going to happen
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 04, 2021, 04:59:28 PM
Per GFS for Nashville from hours 198 to 300 it never gets above 20 degrees. -10 one day and this is after an ice storm.  ::doh::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 04, 2021, 05:01:01 PM
18z GFS- what a ridiculous warm nose for the winter precip next week. 15-20 and sleet at Memphis for hours.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: WXHD on February 04, 2021, 05:09:25 PM
Per GFS for Nashville from hours 198 to 300 it never gets above 20 degrees. -10 one day and this is after an ice storm.  ::doh::

If the big 0z shows temps like that, I may begin to panic. Even if it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 04, 2021, 05:24:50 PM
Ice followed up by an Arctic outbreak.  Shades of February 2015.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Flash on February 04, 2021, 05:29:41 PM
Ice followed up by an Arctic outbreak.  Shades of February 2015.

I've had this month on my mind a lot in recent days. That winter went all gangbusters the last month of calendar winter.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 05:31:45 PM
One thing we most certainly can bank on is these temps are most likely either way are not correct. Low level cold is tricky and my guess is the colder air is further south. Now as being that cold.  I don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 04, 2021, 05:40:34 PM
Per GFS for Nashville from hours 198 to 300 it never gets above 20 degrees. -10 one day and this is after an ice storm.  ::doh::
The entire state is below 0 except for downtown Memphis after that storm lol.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 05:48:09 PM
Wellllll.  February can be a whopping winter storm month.  Is this that kinda February?  Winter I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 04, 2021, 05:48:46 PM
This level of cold this far south will be a shock to the system for most of the public-at-large, especially considering the last several winters dropping below 20 was a rare occurrence. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 04, 2021, 05:52:36 PM
Wellllll.  February can be a whopping winter storm month.  Is this that kinda February?  Winter I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 04, 2021, 05:53:39 PM

(https://sixpacktech.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Old-Man-Winter.jpg)

Loving Artistic work of the Arctic Gods.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 05:56:39 PM
To think this time next week we could be possibly looking at an ice storm, sleet storm, winter storm warning or cold rain or 70 and sunny!  Good ole TN wx!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 04, 2021, 05:57:49 PM
Loving Artistic work of the Arctic Gods.
Correction. Artic or attic is acceptable. Not arctic.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: wfrogge on February 04, 2021, 06:00:12 PM
(https://i.pinimg.com/564x/21/ff/a1/21ffa154e3d8639299017ab5683e55cc.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 04, 2021, 06:01:00 PM
To think this time next week we could be possibly looking at an ice storm, sleet storm, winter storm warning or cold rain or 70 and sunny!  Good ole TN wx!
or even a good ole severe wx outbreak, lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 04, 2021, 06:07:52 PM
(https://i.pinimg.com/564x/21/ff/a1/21ffa154e3d8639299017ab5683e55cc.jpg)
dont know him...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Susan on February 04, 2021, 06:13:48 PM
Jaycee, If Poseidon can show up in France this winter, there is no reason Old Man winter won't show up in Tennessee. 

(https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article23434792.ece/ALTERNATES/s1200c/2_PAY-SN_WAVES_GREEK_GOD_01.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 04, 2021, 06:25:38 PM
18z GFS- what a ridiculous warm nose for the winter precip next week. 15-20 and sleet at Memphis for hours.
My famous sleet storm would have been the biggest snow in Tennessee history but we missed it by a warm nose. If we had that sleet with those modeled temps they would call out the national guard.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 06:48:25 PM
18z GFS16 is stuck....again. They have more problems with that model.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clay on February 04, 2021, 06:53:25 PM
Today every single operational model has trended towards the GFS solution of an earlier phase and a much stronger n'ern branch impulse diving down out of the Plains. This is a classic Miller A setup I'm surprised more aren't mentioning. The low resolution is a result of the current system evolving differently as well.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 04, 2021, 07:09:09 PM
Strange how the once reliable Euro seems to be playing catch-up this winter compared to the GFS/NAM.  It was way late to the game with the Christmas storm, even showing little accumulation in most of east TN the day before.  And if the weekend system comes to pass, it was lagging behind yet again. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 04, 2021, 07:10:32 PM
Heating up some warm butter to lather the 00Z suites with....Oh yaaa
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Woodvegas on February 04, 2021, 07:14:26 PM
Today's (2/4) 18Z GFS has me at -13F on the morning of Valentine's Day. That's hilarious!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on February 04, 2021, 07:34:22 PM
You don't see this every day:
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 04, 2021, 07:41:55 PM
The GFS is cruel to the southern valley with the weekend system. It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on February 04, 2021, 07:43:49 PM
I wonder how this  Sat night/Sun morning thing compares to Feb 8 2020?? Can't remember the maps before that sneaky event. I mean the coldest reading I had during that snow was 33.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 07:45:48 PM
Today's (2/4) 18Z GFS has me at -13F on the morning of Valentine's Day. That's hilarious!

Well dang, look who showed up!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 07:46:24 PM
0z HRRR should be in range.  Running now....
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 04, 2021, 07:50:46 PM
I wonder how this  Sat night/Sun morning thing compares to Feb 8 2020?? Can't remember the maps before that sneaky event. I mean the coldest reading I had during that snow was 33.
We had low dew points for that one for some wetbulbing. Not the case here. The GFS paints us as fully saturated and prepped for mid thirties and rain. The only way it snows below 2000 ft is if something happens dynamically. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 08:03:40 PM
18z NAM3
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021020418/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_54.png)

0z HRRR, same time
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021020500/hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_48.png)

18z NAM3 500mb
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021020418/nam3km_z500_vort_seus_55.png)

0z HRRR 500mb
(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021020500/048/500wh.us_ov.png)

Very similar look between the 18z NAM3 and the 0z HRRR.  NAM3 made this an advisory-level event for most of the Plateau.  Nothing burger for anyone west of Woodbury.


Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 08:27:16 PM
0z NAM12 is much less impressive than previous runs.  Still wintry across the Plateau but the energy scoots the **** outta dodge before things get crazy.  This seems like the correct solution.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021020500/namconus_ref_frzn_seus_40.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021020500/namconus_ref_frzn_seus_41.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021020500/namconus_ref_frzn_seus_42.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 04, 2021, 08:49:05 PM
And Nam 3k is even less impressive than the 12k...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 04, 2021, 09:54:25 PM
0z GFS is juuuiiccyyyyyy.

Plateau wins.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 10:20:07 PM
0z GFS is juuuiiccyyyyyy.

Plateau wins.

Darn it I quit!   Winter
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 04, 2021, 10:24:55 PM
Yikes (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210205/8aaf68bc6efc82666cee4b0ae2a2418b.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 04, 2021, 10:48:02 PM
Yikes (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210205/8aaf68bc6efc82666cee4b0ae2a2418b.jpg)

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers
0zgfs looks sleety
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 04, 2021, 10:50:36 PM
0zgfs looks sleety

Definitely can not focus on precip types this far out we all know that.  The signals are there for a multi day over running event.  I am happy to at least have a shot.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 04, 2021, 11:48:54 PM
0Z ICON... ::hot::
(https://i.imgur.com/eNEtdIf.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/b1tF2yg.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/f0h4dyi.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 04, 2021, 11:56:38 PM
0Z ICON... ::hot::
(https://i.imgur.com/eNEtdIf.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/b1tF2yg.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/f0h4dyi.png)
hopefully the gfs run tonight trying to cave into the icon ...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 05, 2021, 05:01:00 AM
It looks pretty bleak for us right now.  Hopefully models will change. Looking at the model runs on pivotal is very depressing right now!  ::candle::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 05, 2021, 05:56:03 AM
Wow! Last night's 0Z runs all looked pretty wild for the end of next week. EPS was solid gold. Cold push looked moved up overall. All precip types still on the table as well as serious cold. Real Arctic air is always tough on the models. Lots of  ::coffee:: incoming.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 05, 2021, 06:02:38 AM
Wow! Last night's 0Z runs all looked pretty wild for the end of next week. EPS was solid gold. Cold push looked moved up overall. All precip types still on the table as well as serious cold. Real Arctic air is always tough on the models. Lots of  ::coffee:: incoming.
I guess I was checking out Sunday and Tuesdays model runs.  I am glad middle and west TN will get some winter weather by next weekend. Thanks Coach B!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 05, 2021, 06:18:45 AM
I guess I was checking out Sunday and Tuesdays model runs.  I am glad middle and west TN will get some winter weather by next weekend. Thanks Coach B!
better be careful for what winter weather wishing for Beth. Could get pretty icy be honest
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 07:51:48 AM
12z HRRR was not a good start for 12z suite regarding Sunday, for those that were still holding out hope here in the mid-State.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 07:57:41 AM
12z HRRR was not a good start for 12z suite regarding Sunday, for those that were still holding out hope here in the mid-State.

Yes.  I was going to say I hope the 12z runs come out of their funk because most of the 6z runs were hot garbage.  Even some of the 0z stuff was ::poo:: .
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 08:03:51 AM
At least it's something.  Probably be gone tomorrow, though.

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY7.gif)

Quote
By the middle of next week, there is general model consensus for
the returning moisture from the Gulf to expand north and east
across the Deep South and eventually into the East Coast later in
the week.  The northern portion of the precipitation shield should
be in the form of rain and/or ice from the interior Deep South to
eventually parts of the Northeast.

Nah, y'all can have it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 08:06:56 AM
At least it's something.  Probably be gone tomorrow, though.

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY7.gif)

What a vague map. 10% chance of seeing snow or sleet...might as well just say your guess is as good as ours.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 05, 2021, 08:08:35 AM
So much for BAM always thinking warm. They are all over the cold for February. Some great tweets this morning on the amount of cold on the way.
https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1357640343248900097 (https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1357640343248900097)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Etdqp3GWYAMmgD5?format=jpg&name=900x900)

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 08:09:33 AM
Yes.  I was going to say I hope the 12z runs come out of their funk because most of the 6z runs were hot garbage.  Even some of the 0z stuff was ::poo:: .

At hour 34, NAM 12k is only about 10 degrees colder than the HRRR at 34. Goodness.  ::doh::  Even short range models are completely different.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 08:12:02 AM
OHX:

Quote
Models continue to show different solutions for next week,
especially for midweek onward. Before that, we will be looking at
drier conditions today after the front moved through earlier this
morning, and drier conditions will continue for the most part of
the day Saturday as well. Plains trough will move eastward towards
the area Saturday, bringing precip chances in mainly during the
evening and overnight. 850 mb temps dont warm up much over the
next few days, and the warm front associated with the Plains
trough will slide to our east. Surface temps should be above
freezing for most, but a rain snow mix will be possible starting
in the evening as temps cool after sunset. On the Plateau, it
looks like some snow accumulation will be possible starting around
midnight and ending around sunrise. Current forecast has around an
inch of snow possible for higher elevations on the Plateau, and
around a dusting to a half inch east of I-65 closer to the
Plateau.


Sunday will be dry as the trough moves east, and zonal flow moves
in aloft. On Monday we will warm up a bit as another
Plains/Midwest trough moves southeast. At this point, the GFS and
ECMWF begin to offer different solutions.
The ECMWF brings in
precip during the day Tuesday and out of the area by Tuesday
evening, with dry and cold conditions for the remainder of the
week. The GFS stalls the cold front with the trough into a
stationary boundary that sits just south of the area at the
surface, and north of the area around 850 mb. This would bring in
a mixed bag of precip during the day Wednesday through Friday
morning before the front finally pushes south and east. The GFS
soundings have a strong inversion in the low levels again since
the cold air sits at the surface and 850 mb temps are above
freezing. This would be a freezing rain/sleet scenario for most,
with mainly snow in the northwest and mainly rain in the south.

The Canadian is leaning more towards the ECMWF solution, so there
is still a lot of uncertainty with the mixed precip potential in
the middle of next week.

Temps will be cold most of next week, but models do agree on cold
temps Thursday through Saturday, with the coldest night Friday
night. Consensus lows are in the low to mid teens, with highs only
in the 20s on Friday.
This would be more likely if there was some
snow during the middle of next week, but again uncertainty is high
especially this far out in the forecast. After Monday though, it
looks like we will be in a cooling trend through the week.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 05, 2021, 08:17:05 AM
Feels like we've slipped backwards into the 70's and 80's, when we didn't really know what was going to happen until the day after.  This system is only a day out, but no model has a handle on it despite it being at our door step.  Even MRX is miffed. 

Quote
First off, it`s worth noting that forecast confidence is still
pretty low as the deterministic models keep changing their minds
with the tracks of the systems and how much QPF will occur as they
move through, which is unfortunate this close to the beginning of
precipitation.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 08:20:17 AM
Feels like we've slipped backwards into the 70's and 80's, when we didn't really know what was going to happen until the day after.  This system is only a day out, but no model has a handle on it despite it being at our door step.  Even MRX is miffed.

HRRR is just night and day different than the NAM12k. Higher resolution NAM is rolling now, be interesting to see which it leans towards.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 08:21:11 AM
12z NAM12....

(https://media.giphy.com/media/229Tjv7saCLLXvqd59/giphy.gif)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021020512/namconus_ref_frzn_us_37.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021020512/namconus_ref_frzn_us_38.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021020512/namconus_ref_frzn_us_39.png)



Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 08:22:25 AM
I think we may have gotten a good sampling from the RAOB network.  Or it was just the 6z NAM doing stupid stuff.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 05, 2021, 08:22:29 AM
HRRR is just night and day different than the NAM12k. Higher resolution NAM is rolling now, be interesting to see which it leans towards.

The new run of the Hi-res NAM has swung back to snowier for the Plateau eastward.  Much more than the previous run.  But who knows.  Could easily swing back the other way later today. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 05, 2021, 08:24:02 AM
OHX:
euro looks moisture starved for system next week
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 08:27:21 AM
NAM3k was closer to the NAM12k than the HRRR, but not near as snowy for middleTN as the 12k.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 05, 2021, 08:30:00 AM
MRX be like...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/5EQC8eAnEAAZG/giphy.gif)

What a headache when you can't get any model agreement one day out.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 08:31:43 AM
Kuchera comparison, NAM12k (left), NAM3k (right)

(https://i.ibb.co/mRL2YpM/12z-Nam-comp-2-5-21.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 05, 2021, 08:38:48 AM
euro looks moisture starved for system next week
Euro ensembles actually looked better at 0z for that mid week period. Southwest flow over the ARTIC air mass will wreak havoc for a couple more days until it can figure it out.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 05, 2021, 09:23:55 AM
Wait a second...do I actually see hope? 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 05, 2021, 09:28:19 AM
Wait a second...do I actually see hope? 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
where in the **** have you been. I need your help. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 05, 2021, 09:31:02 AM
Saw this posted elsewhere from NWS Memphis about next week:

Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
532 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2021
.....
An impressive cold airmass is building across Canada and the
northern U.S. The Mid-South will flirt with this cold air this
weekend into early next week before this airmass plows into the
region during the middle and end of next week with much below
temperatures and possibly some wintry precipitation.
.........
Cold air retreats temporarily on Monday as low pressure develops
over the ARKLATEX and moves toward the region. Highs will reach
into the 50s most places so enjoy this last mild day. After this
system moves through Tuesday the gates are open and cold air will
pour into the region on northerly surface winds. Starting Tuesday
each day will become colder continuing into the weekend.
Meanwhile the upper level flow will remain WSW with moisture in
the southern stream overrunning the advancing arctic airmass at
times resulting in chances for winter weather starting Monday
night and continuing through the end of the forecast period. It is
too soon to really pinpoint timing but one thing is certain...this
is a dangerous pattern for winter weather.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on February 05, 2021, 09:39:37 AM
I've seen some Chattanooga friends thinking that they're getting 3-6" tomorrow night. That's not happening lol. Accuweather really is garbage.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 05, 2021, 09:58:50 AM
I've seen some Chattanooga friends thinking that they're getting 3-6" tomorrow night. That's not happening lol. Accuweather really is garbage.

Accuweather's forecasts are a treacherous disservice to the public.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 05, 2021, 10:13:57 AM
So far on the 12Z runs for next week both GFS and ICON are setting up for a nasty long duration ice storm in middle and west TN. The ICON for some reason shows freezing rain and sleet as rain on their model depictions, but its clearly ice/sleet with its modeled surface temps.

edit: Hopefully the ICON is out to lunch, it probably is out there at this range. It indicates a crap ton of ice/sleet followed by near 0 temps by Friday morning for west/middle TN.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 05, 2021, 10:16:15 AM
12z GFS going to hold the cold air back longer for a ice / sleet event west and middle. Yet another different solution. Globals are far apart...ensembles more consistent. This should get more ironed out by the weekend.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 10:16:44 AM
So far on the 12Z runs for next week both GFS and ICON are setting up for a nasty long duration ice storm in middle and west TN. The ICON for some reason shows freezing rain and sleet as rain on their model depictions, but its clearly ice/sleet with its modeled surface temps.

Absolutely disgusting.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_27.png)

And a token 1/2" on top. 

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_30.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 05, 2021, 10:21:32 AM
Absolutely disgusting.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_27.png)

And a token 1/2" on top. 

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_30.png)

There must be an impressive gradient in place. Surface temp here in that frame at 162 is 62. Warm rain.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Hank W on February 05, 2021, 10:23:29 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 10:25:54 AM
Absolutely disgusting.

And a token 1/2" on top. 

Reminds me a lot of the Feb storm from a few years ago where we were getting heavy rain at 28 degrees. If you have lived here long enough, you know that Old Man Winter finds many different ways to keep our area from getting snow. Really is almost hard to believe at times.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 10:28:26 AM
Temp gradient, verbatim 12z GFS

Dover - 23F (SN)
Nashville - 28F (IP/ZR)
Murfreesboro - 29F (IP/ZR)
Chattanooga - 44F (RA)
Memphis - 24F (+IP/ZR)
Jackson - 26F (+IP/ZR)
Knoxville - 40F (RA)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 05, 2021, 10:28:58 AM
The Second system showed around 0.30 Sleet and Freezing Rain around Clarksville also.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 05, 2021, 10:29:13 AM
So far on the 12Z runs for next week both GFS and ICON are setting up for a nasty long duration ice storm in middle and west TN. The ICON for some reason shows freezing rain and sleet as rain on their model depictions, but its clearly ice/sleet with its modeled surface temps.

edit: Hopefully the ICON is out to lunch, it probably is out there at this range. It indicates a crap ton of ice/sleet followed by near 0 temps by Friday morning for west/middle TN.
Yes, I noticed that too...the precipitation shows as rain but clearly the temperatures are in the 20
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 05, 2021, 10:30:18 AM
Reminds me a lot of the Feb storm from a few years ago where we were getting heavy rain at 28 degrees. If you have lived here long enough, you know that Old Man Winter finds many different ways to keep our area from getting snow. Really is almost hard to believe at times.

February 2015. I will never forget that. That was torture.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 10:31:30 AM
12z GFS skew for BNA:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/gfs_2021020512_fh162_sounding_35.97N_86.54W.png)

Dover (veryyy close to IP/ZR)
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/gfs_2021020512_fh162_sounding_36.51N_87.69W.png)

Murfreesboro
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/gfs_2021020512_fh162_sounding_35.81N_86.01W.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 10:33:08 AM
Temp gradient, verbatim 12z GFS

Dover - 23F (SN)
Nashville - 28F (IP/ZR)
Murfreesboro - 29F (IP/ZR)
Chattanooga - 44F (RA)
Memphis - 24F (+IP/ZR)
Jackson - 26F (+IP/ZR)
Knoxville - 40F (RA)

Poor Memphis. For as snow starved as they are...that is just a cold kick to the jewels.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 05, 2021, 10:33:17 AM
12z GFS skew for BNA:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/gfs_2021020512_fh162_sounding_35.97N_86.54W.png)

Dover (veryyy close to IP/ZR)
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/gfs_2021020512_fh162_sounding_36.51N_87.69W.png)

Yuck.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 10:35:26 AM
Includes sleet. 

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020512/gfs_asnow_seus_31.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on February 05, 2021, 10:37:38 AM
GFS is pretty disastrous. Maybe slightly more of a 12/22/04 repeat side though? Which would preferable to all ZR at least
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 05, 2021, 10:37:59 AM
This potential is ridiculous, cannot get ONE freaking decent snowstorm , seems the ONLY potenatial with this event is either just plain old rain OR ice, not snow at all, and that is sad that the chance is only for an ice storm
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 10:39:13 AM
It'd be nice if the weather Gods would throw us a bone in the form of a high ratio clipper after that mess. Just a nice 2-3" token, we deserve that.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 10:42:35 AM
Of course you're splitting hairs this far out, but that BNA skew looks more like sleet than frz rain. Hopefully we can transition to sleet faster than models depict...famous last words.  ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 05, 2021, 10:46:29 AM
Say by Sunday latest if not earlier , the gfs will cave toward a euro drier solution. And the main topic will be the arctic air coming down.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 05, 2021, 10:48:18 AM
I would say it's still a little early to say just a ice event. I will say south of I-40 right now looks more like mainly freezing rain but north of I-40 could still be mainly sleet and or snow event. The threat of ice is real for sure, but hopefully we will get alot of mixing with sleet and some snow especially north of I-40. My area on that run appears to get a mix of all 3, with maybe a lean towards sleet but I am merely guessing. As always around here it's close. ::popcorn:: ::cold::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 05, 2021, 10:48:23 AM
Say by Sunday latest if not earlier , the gfs will cave toward a euro drier solution. And the main topic will be the arctic air coming down.

i would be in favor of that, do NOT want sleet or ice, it is nasty it is ugly and the worst winter event you can have
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 10:48:36 AM
BNA goes below freezing around hour 114 and sort of stays around freezing until hour 150, then the bottom drops out around, getting as low as around -13 and doesn't get back above freezing till around hour 270. Pretty wild.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 10:50:20 AM
i would be in favor of that, do NOT want sleet or ice, it is nasty it is ugly and the worst winter event you can have

Sleet isn't that bad. We had some good sleet events in middle TN in the late 80's, early 90's. Now, with temps being as cold as they are, all surfaces will be a skating rink for a few days, but most everyone is accustomed to being at home these days.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 05, 2021, 10:51:23 AM
Say by Sunday latest if not earlier , the gfs will cave toward a euro drier solution. And the main topic will be the arctic air coming down.
It could but this year it does seem the euro has been late to the party and comes around late to the others. Just saying. I am confident at some point in the next 10 day stretch we will see some winter weather. If we don't we don't, but you have to be excited about the possibilities. Whether it's freezing rain,sleet and or snow! ::yum:: ::guitar::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 11:07:39 AM
12z Ukie says, whats the rush. At hour 122 it shows 51 in BNA while GFS and CMC are around 30-32 degrees. Love it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 05, 2021, 11:07:51 AM
i would be in favor of that, do NOT want sleet or ice, it is nasty it is ugly and the worst winter event you can have

Sleet bounces and doesn't stick to trees and power lines like freezing rain, so it's not bad until it accumulates enough to make the roads slick.

Here is the GFS freezing rain accumulation for the event.  Looks ugly taken verbatim.

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 05, 2021, 11:11:10 AM
The 12z CMC looked real nice also Snowman for our area.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 05, 2021, 11:13:51 AM
Sleet bounces and doesn't stick to trees and power lines like freezing rain, so it's not bad until it accumulates enough to make the roads slick.


I am aware of this Jaycee :)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 05, 2021, 11:15:55 AM
If we don't we don't, but you have to be excited about the possibilities. Whether it's freezing rain,sleet and or snow! ::yum:: ::guitar::  ::snowman::

Not excited about any type of freezing rain, do not want power outages, I have two family members now on home oxygen and would prefer not to have the threat of long term power outages
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 05, 2021, 11:29:15 AM
Not excited about any type of freezing rain, do not want power outages, I have two family members now on home oxygen and would prefer not to have the threat of long term power outages
i like to pass on ice storm please. To many fond memories of 94 still. And that
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 05, 2021, 11:30:36 AM
Looks like I'm doing some work on my generator this weekend to make sure it's ready.  :-\
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 05, 2021, 11:44:36 AM
Looks like I'm doing some work on my generator this weekend to make sure it's ready.  :-\
Yep I think I will crank mine up just too make sure everything is working just in case. ::yum::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 05, 2021, 11:48:42 AM
i would be in favor of that, do NOT want sleet or ice, it is nasty it is ugly and the worst winter event you can have
I will gladly take sleet, a good pack of sleet with snow on top makes some sledding. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Navywxman on February 05, 2021, 11:50:54 AM
With how jacked up the entire pattern is for the northeastern Pacific, complete with a blocking high pressure causing a retrograding low pressure, I expect nothing but chaos with the models.

It's obvious that the pattern is colder for much of the country, but to what extent still remains to be seen and how that affects these "potential" systems.

I've literally told some of the forecasters here in Norfolk for the Navy to not trust anything beyond 48 hours out right now.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 12:10:23 PM
12z Euro for the weekend...

....ick.

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021020512/042/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ov.png)

Gotta believe some of this is IP/ZR
(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021020512/048/snod.us_ov.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 05, 2021, 12:11:53 PM
Pattern is sure amped up for sure... just ripe for a triple phaser  to be honest
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 05, 2021, 12:31:45 PM
Euro comes in much warmer
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 05, 2021, 12:39:37 PM
Lol euro went from cold and suppressed last night to too warm now for next week. Arctic air just making any inroads into our area as of Friday anyways. Talk about inconsistency. These are so hard to figure out for globals.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 05, 2021, 12:42:04 PM
That strong WAA just doesn't make sense  ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 05, 2021, 12:45:20 PM
I don't think its handling the Artic air correct.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 05, 2021, 12:56:12 PM
I have been reading forecast discussions on nws for different cities. Paducah says that besides the euro and some of it's ensembles that most guidance has the arctic front coming through much further south and quicker than euro. I always watch the euro but it hasn't been doing great lately and I am just speculating but it is known for holding things back. Time will tell. ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 05, 2021, 01:01:48 PM
Hopefully, the "Artic" air will have some happy little clouds with some happy little precipitation.

(https://media.tenor.com/images/962aa2c5c3c85bc602888dbfadfec9de/tenor.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 01:36:01 PM
The Euro out to hour 198 would be pretty representative of a phase 7 MJO look and looking at the MJO, that is the phase the Euro forecasts to be in for the next week+. Goes from a strong phase 7 and back into the eye. Never progresses to phase 8, taken verbatim.

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Navywxman on February 05, 2021, 01:42:27 PM
When the weenies ride EVERY model run lately, someone is going to have a stroke or aneurysm.

Like I said earlier, trust nothing beyond 48 hours, 72 hours are the absolute most. Until things get sorted out in the northern Pacific, you're going to see continued chaos in modeling for the CONUS.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 05, 2021, 01:46:09 PM
The EPS control mirrored the Ops. Overall euro ensembles were colder than those runs. GEFS and CMC ensembles had no issues with cold air plunging south. There has been a trend however of cold air not moving much further into the SE (AL/GA). Still, we are 6 days away.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 05, 2021, 02:02:01 PM
When the weenies ride EVERY model run lately, someone is going to have a stroke or aneurysm.

Like I said earlier, trust nothing beyond 48 hours, 72 hours are the absolute most. Until things get sorted out in the northern Pacific, you're going to see continued chaos in modeling for the CONUS.

Good logic when the models can't even agree on or be very consistent about a system one day away.  Forget 7 days out.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 05, 2021, 02:08:19 PM
Good logic when the models can't even agree on or be very consistent about a system one day away.  Forget 7 days out.

yep i do tend to freak over ice potential though, but agreed anything past 4 days is trash most of the time, the idea can be on the table for long term trends but no forecast thats for sure
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 05, 2021, 02:14:19 PM
Inconsistency continues.  Lo-res NAM now has a nearly state wide hit of snow this weekend (except for far south). 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 05, 2021, 02:15:10 PM
18Z NAM for what its worth is better for west TN and northwest middle tomorrow night:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021020518/namconus_ref_frzn_seus_36.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 05, 2021, 02:16:20 PM
Hopefully, the "Artic" air will have some happy little clouds with some happy little precipitation.

(https://media.tenor.com/images/962aa2c5c3c85bc602888dbfadfec9de/tenor.gif)

Yes!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 05, 2021, 02:19:43 PM
yep i do tend to freak over ice potential though, but agreed anything past 4 days is trash most of the time, the idea can be on the table for long term trends but no forecast thats for sure

Hey, we have a group here that bases everything off the extended. Winter was over like 3 weeks ago , didnt you read?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 05, 2021, 02:22:06 PM
Almost comical how each short-range model changes so much from run to run.  Not a good gift for local forecasters on "National Weatherperson's Day."

I'm not that optimistic, except for the fact it's coming in during the night, which might play some part.  Nevertheless, temperatures are marginal.  If the pre-storm atmosphere was just a bit colder, I would feel a bit better. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 05, 2021, 02:26:06 PM
Almost comical how each short-range model changes so much from run to run.  Not a good gift for local forecasters on "National Weatherperson's Day."

I'm not that optimistic, except for the fact it's coming in during the night, which might play some part.  Nevertheless, temperatures are marginal.  If the pre-storm atmosphere was just a bit colder, I would feel a bit better.

Yeah big changes from 12Z to 18Z 12NAM


12Z
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/ky/total_snow_10to1/1612526400/1612742400-fEza5mbYQXM.png)
18Z
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/ky/total_snow_10to1/1612548000/1612742400-xPbVag7pPvY.png)

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: budrow014 on February 05, 2021, 02:51:45 PM
Are these numbers realistic for middle tn?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 05, 2021, 02:54:25 PM
nam got the ULL snow correct in early Jan, would be nice if that panned out lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 02:55:37 PM
Are these numbers realistic for middle tn?

No.  The NWS uses a NBM (national blend of models) which is an amalgamation of numerous numerical weather prediction models and it is quite sparse with the precip.  Maybe a few tenths of an inch scattered around.  The NAM, GFS, and oddly enough Euro, are currently in a state of bat- ::poo:: crazy.

The NBM is available but its behind a paywall at Pivotal.

I'll link to it, but won't post it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtfVoToXcAEJFaW?format=png&name=medium

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Huntermc18 on February 05, 2021, 03:08:26 PM
(Attachment Link)

WOW WOW WOW
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 05, 2021, 03:11:25 PM
No.  The NWS uses a NBM (national blend of models) which is an amalgamation of numerous numerical weather prediction models and it is quite sparse with the precip.

Good stuff! I notice that MRX is going with 2-3" for Knoxville-Morristown even though that model blend has paltry amounts.

(http://www.weather.gov/images/mrx/graphicast/image1.png?fa90701cccff033848609418e86e20e3)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 05, 2021, 03:22:53 PM
Hopefully, the "Artic" air will have some happy little clouds with some happy little precipitation.

(https://media.tenor.com/images/962aa2c5c3c85bc602888dbfadfec9de/tenor.gif)
You are messed up.  I like that.  I have stolen this meme and will be sneaking it into some committee emails next week with messages like  "Remember, there are no F's, just happy retakes."
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 05, 2021, 03:23:13 PM
From the WPC regarding next week: "The pattern is in place for icy conditions somewhere, but
locations are highly uncertain at this time."


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on February 05, 2021, 03:45:50 PM
Good stuff! I notice that MRX is going with 2-3" for Knoxville-Morristown even though that model blend has paltry amounts.

I guess that's close enough for Accuweather to claim "around 4 inches", lol.

Seriously, these upcoming systems are so complex it's been a bit of fun to watch what's showing up on the forecasts from one hour to the next. I feel like somebody is going to get a big system, but lots of folks looking for one are likely to get left out.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 03:54:30 PM
18z GFS comes in with more qpf.

But is warm.  Like crazy warm.  It's just hard to believe we're twenty four hours away from a potential event and we still do not have a model consensus.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 04:12:59 PM
(https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/145349785_3689647431111514_153788471767199722_o.png?_nc_cat=100&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=MQl30cVtT0UAX98TWHC&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-1.xx&oh=eb36868390f7cd48f6299be0da08e7d3&oe=6041B2B5)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 04:15:10 PM
18z GFS comes in with more qpf.

But is warm.  Like crazy warm.  It's just hard to believe we're twenty four hours away from a potential event and we still do not have a model consensus.

Time for the weather rock....

(https://media.giphy.com/media/p45mW9QnaPBAc/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 05, 2021, 04:18:19 PM
Are these numbers realistic for middle tn?

No
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 05, 2021, 04:23:22 PM
(https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/145349785_3689647431111514_153788471767199722_o.png?_nc_cat=100&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=MQl30cVtT0UAX98TWHC&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-1.xx&oh=eb36868390f7cd48f6299be0da08e7d3&oe=6041B2B5)

Can you blame them. Most of them time those do not even verify.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 04:30:25 PM
Can you blame them. Most of them time those do not even verify.

Just highlight the State in 0-2" with 1-4" shaded for the plateau and East TN Mtns, throw in the locally heavier amounts possible, done and done.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 05, 2021, 04:34:09 PM
where in the **** have you been. I need your help. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 05, 2021, 04:35:59 PM
Forecaster confidence has to be near an all-time low.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 05, 2021, 04:46:23 PM


Everyone's confidence has to be near an all-time low.

FYP

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 05, 2021, 04:53:35 PM
(https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/145349785_3689647431111514_153788471767199722_o.png?_nc_cat=100&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=MQl30cVtT0UAX98TWHC&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-1.xx&oh=eb36868390f7cd48f6299be0da08e7d3&oe=6041B2B5)

this has to be the 5th time this year that same accumulation map has been put on ohx lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 05, 2021, 04:55:02 PM
Lol... well, I had COVID and then work to catch up on!

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Glad your better. Now start the great 2021 storm thread.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 05, 2021, 05:13:32 PM
Trend for this cycle was warmer in the 5-7 day period. 18Z GEFS noticeably warmer during the period in question with the freezing line from Memphis to Clarksville during that period. It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 05, 2021, 05:21:12 PM
Forecaster confidence has to be near an all-time low.

My confidence in what happens through the rest of this month is about equal to my awkward middle school self asking the hottest girl out to be my girlfriend.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 05, 2021, 05:22:40 PM
From the WPC regarding next week: "The pattern is in place for icy conditions somewhere, but
locations are highly uncertain at this time."


Well looking at that graph the Boro and Snowdog.  We are in the heavy snow axis.  Yes please!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 05, 2021, 05:42:10 PM
Well we will be having flooding and severe wx at this rate.  Models suck and the rock is the best forecasting model. Another wait 10 days for a chance at a dusting.  Not believing another **** 8-10 day snow opportunity.  Again winter can go
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 05, 2021, 05:44:50 PM
Well we will be having flooding and severe wx at this rate.  Models suck and the rock is the best forecasting model. Another wait 10 days for a chance at a dusting.  Not believing another **** 8-10 day snow opportunity.

Would you believe the best looking storm on the 18Z GFS is.............at 10 days!  ::rofl:: ::)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 05, 2021, 05:45:52 PM
 :-*
Well we will be having flooding and severe wx at this rate.  Models suck and the rock is the best forecasting model. Another wait 10 days for a chance at a dusting.  Not believing another **** 8-10 day snow opportunity.  Again winter can go
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 05, 2021, 06:12:30 PM
:-*
You need to chill, you are all over the place ::flag::. If you need to continue to vent take it to the other :police: thread. ::shrug:: Then I will come yell at you over there and you can get it all out :) What exactly is it that you are all pissed about. 1-2 model runs??? Really
its the trend thats not good... trending in the wrong direction
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 05, 2021, 06:14:42 PM
Well we will be having flooding and severe wx at this rate.  Models suck and the rock is the best forecasting model. Another wait 10 days for a chance at a dusting.  Not believing another **** 8-10 day snow opportunity.  Again winter can go
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 05, 2021, 06:22:37 PM
All we can do is hope it trends back. About 6 days ago they said Johnson City would get accumulating snow this weekend. Two days later they showed nothing. Now they are calling for 3-4 inches Saturday night. It does always seem Arctic cold predicted never gets to us anymore and always stays to our north. It seems it never trends toward colder than the long range predicts. It seems like a southeast ridge has been in place for winter like 10 years in a row. Frustrating


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: WXHD on February 05, 2021, 06:29:12 PM
I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 05, 2021, 06:33:18 PM
I really wish it would be a decent snow on Sunday. Not for me though.  For my brother.  He is in Huntsville Alabama Hospital.  He started out with throat cancer. Took Chemo and Radiation for 2.5 months. Came home with a feeding tube in his stomach. He felt pretty good for a month. Then started hurting again.  It has spread.  He will go home with Hospice next week if it all possible or if he passes away before then.  He LOVES SNOW!  Always has.  I have many memories of us sledding and playing in the snow.
He turned 67 on Tuesday in the hospital.  So yes I am praying for a decent snow for him.  Prayers are appreciated!  Thanks!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 06:33:43 PM
My confidence in what happens through the rest of this month is about equal to my awkward middle school self asking the hottest girl out to be my girlfriend.   

Shooters shoot.  ::guitar::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 05, 2021, 06:36:04 PM
I really wish it would be a decent snow on Sunday. Not for me though.  For my brother.  He is in Huntsville Alabama Hospital.  He started out with throat cancer. Took Chemo and Radiation for 2.5 months. Came home with a feeding tube in his stomach. He felt pretty good for a month. Then started hurting again.  It has spread.  He will go home with Hospice next week if it all possible or if he passes away before then.  He LOVES SNOW!  Always has.  I have many memories of us sledding and playing in the snow.
He turned 67 on Tuesday in the hospital.  So yes I am praying for a decent snow for him.  Prayers are appreciated!  Thanks!
Prayers sent. So sorry. Hoping for a miracle snow his way


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 06:36:34 PM
I really wish it would be a decent snow on Sunday. Not for me though.  For my brother.  He is in Huntsville Alabama Hospital.  He started out with throat cancer. Took Chemo and Radiation for 2.5 months. Came home with a feeding tube in his stomach. He felt pretty good for a month. Then started hurting again.  It has spread.  He will go home with Hospice next week if it all possible or if he passes away before then.  He LOVES SNOW!  Always has.  I have many memories of us sledding and playing in the snow.
He turned 67 on Tuesday in the hospital.  So yes I am praying for a decent snow for him.  Prayers are appreciated!  Thanks!

Dang. Hate to hear that. Praying for peace and comfort for your family.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 05, 2021, 06:37:27 PM
its the trend thats not good... trending in the wrong direction

I figured a bad trend was a trend in the right direction. Thanks for the clarification.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 05, 2021, 07:35:52 PM
Dang. Hate to hear that. Praying for peace and comfort for your family.

So sorry to hear that.  May peace and comfort find you all in this difficult time.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 07:38:22 PM
0z HRRR much more supportive of an inch or two over the Plateau.  Model differences continue unabated. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 05, 2021, 07:41:27 PM
GFS has our new annual tradition of February flooding one week out.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 05, 2021, 07:41:56 PM
0z HRRR much more supportive of an inch or two over the Plateau.  Model differences continue unabated.

18z NAM 3k and 00z HRRR starting to find some agreement.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 05, 2021, 08:49:49 PM
Look at all that cold rain in the forecast! 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 05, 2021, 09:01:46 PM
Here is the NWS forecast for Lascassas.  Not much cold rain there...  Will it come to pass?  Who knows, but it has been a generation since I saw a forecast with snow chances almost every day for a week. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 05, 2021, 09:02:46 PM
0z NAM3 similar to the HRRR.  Its a few degrees away from being really nasty.  Plateau still gets an inch or two.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 05, 2021, 09:22:52 PM
I really wish it would be a decent snow on Sunday. Not for me though.  For my brother.  He is in Huntsville Alabama Hospital.  He started out with throat cancer. Took Chemo and Radiation for 2.5 months. Came home with a feeding tube in his stomach. He felt pretty good for a month. Then started hurting again.  It has spread.  He will go home with Hospice next week if it all possible or if he passes away before then.  He LOVES SNOW!  Always has.  I have many memories of us sledding and playing in the snow.
He turned 67 on Tuesday in the hospital.  So yes I am praying for a decent snow for him.  Prayers are appreciated!  Thanks!

I'm very sorry.  My Dad was just diagnosed with a type of blood cancer this week.  He is in his 80's, and I know we can't live forever, but the news is never easy to take.  Prayers to you and him for a memorable snow to enjoy, and for comfort.  Something most of us need these days.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 05, 2021, 10:38:31 PM
I'm very sorry.  My Dad was just diagnosed with a type of blood cancer this week.  He is in his 80's, and I know we can't live forever, but the news is never easy to take.  Prayers to you and him for a memorable snow to enjoy, and for comfort.  Something most of us need these days.

Sorry to hear that Jaycee.  It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 05, 2021, 11:05:07 PM
Sorry to hear that Beth and Jaycee. It's tough without parents. That's one reason I moved to jonesboro after my father passed. Hopefully we all can get a big winter storm to make up for not seeing anything noticable recently.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 05, 2021, 11:30:24 PM
Sheesh.  The weather forecasters I feel sorry for this week.  What a cluster trying to figure this out. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 06, 2021, 04:33:31 AM
better be getting aaron rogers warmed up and in the game, going take his hail mary throw believe to get us a winter storm at this rate we are going... :) 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: OutsiderLuknIn on February 06, 2021, 05:19:00 AM
better be getting aaron rogers warmed up and in the game, going take his hail mary throw believe to get us a winter storm at this rate we are going... :)
Is Aaron Kenny
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Yazoo63 on February 06, 2021, 06:55:52 AM
Per OHX ...  "This will be another event where a few
degrees up or down will be a huge difference not only on what type
of precip gets to the surface, but if snow will stick. The Plateau
looks to get to snow from a rain snow mix before midnight,
especially at higher elevations, so accumulating snow potential
will begin this evening. Models really ramp up the snow potential
around midnight on the Plateau, showing high omega values, decent
q vector convergence, and deep moisture
. The GFS again shows very
high snow totals, but most models via cross sections show the deep
moisture and strong lift, so current snow forecast lines up with
model average including CAMs. Consensus has around 2 tenths of an
inch of QPF for the Plateau, and even at a simple 10:1 snow ratio
that would put down 2 inches. Towards the end of the event as
temps cool a bit further, snow ratios could climb a bit, and based
on forcing/moisture some areas could get up to around 3 inches on
the Plateau.
Again, a few degrees higher or lower will
drastically change the forecast. If temps hold in the mid 30s
longer, and rain/snow mix persists past midnight, less snow. If
snow starts earlier, chances for getting higher snow totals will
increase."         Me likey  ::yum::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 06, 2021, 07:02:17 AM
Watch any well-timed disturbances this weekend or week of course but watch towards the end of the month when we shift over to the La-Nina-like pattern.  That is the type of situation when you have a polar airmass retreating because remember cold air is denser and harder to pluck out running over a more warmer spring-like airmass.  That is the type of situation where a March 4th-5th 2015 or a March 17th 1892 setup can occur in.  Not saying that will happen but if it were it would be during that timeframe.     
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 06, 2021, 07:33:19 AM
I noticed that both NAMs, HRRR, Euro, and the GEM have streaks of not insignificant accumulation back into middle TN away from the Plateau. This appears to be localized and driven by heavier rates overcoming boundary layer temps. Tells me a surprise for some, while maybe not expected, is possible. I wouldn't get my hopes up since the NWS didn't even mention it, but I've seen it happen multiple times, especially once you get outside of the Nashville Heat Island.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 06, 2021, 08:16:35 AM
The differences between the EURO and GFS/ CMC are astounding this week. Both GFS/CMC of those models and their ensembles have an ice storm this way Thursday followed by bitter cold. The EURO and its ensembles continued if not even amped up its pattern overnight in the opposite direction with temps nearing 60 at the same time- and parts of middle and east TN well into the 60
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2021, 08:17:27 AM
Slogan of the day will be, delayed but not denied. Looks like the SE ridge is going to put up more of a fight than long range globals originally thought.

Not all that surprising to me considering, Curt's data shows very few snowstorms out of this set-up and models continue to hold the MJO in phase 7. Need to get into phase 8.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 08:29:10 AM
Hmmmmm... Razar thin, elevation wins.. Someone gona get a brand new car.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 06, 2021, 08:33:06 AM
You know winters have gone to crap when you get a special weather statement about a dusting of snow lmao.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 08:34:31 AM
Alright, this is a bit interesting. 12Z 12NAM shifts the QPF zone NW into the midstate. 925mb temps are hoving around 32F. As OHX state a couple degree is going make all the difference here. I bet we locally get snow above 1000ft here. Clay can vouch for that... A couple local areas here have that elevation. Take this very lightly as profiles are razor thin as I said. If we can get under the strongest rates, we could see BIG snowflakes falling, but not sticking at the ground. Lots to take away from this. I am likely going to do a little traveling around the state to enjoy whatever comes our way.
6Z

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/ky/total_snow_10to1/1612591200/1612699200-FpEWx877rpo.png)

12Z

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/ky/total_snow_10to1/1612612800/1612699200-JzeiZoPupVQ.png)



This looks very similar to our first storm of the season where favored areas in Williamson and SW got 2-4" of snowfall.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/ky/total_snow_10to1/1612612800/1612699200-gCyEvGP1xo4.png)




*******************************

12Z - Using a bit different way to calculate . Just take note, nothing verbatim here.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/ky/total_snow_kuchera/1612612800/1612699200-GklWdn0t2Fw.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 08:35:14 AM
You know winters have gone to crap when you get a special weather statement about a dusting of snow lmao.

Can we just not for today. Or take it to the bitching room. Lets talk about our current system.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: hurricaneguy on February 06, 2021, 08:36:46 AM
No love for NE Tennessee. At this rate we aren
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 08:40:52 AM
No love for NE Tennessee. At this rate we aren
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2021, 08:41:18 AM
Alright, this is a bit interesting. 12Z 12NAM shifts the QPF zone NW into the midstate. 925mb temps are hoving around 32F. As OHX state a couple degree is going make all the difference here. I bet we locally get snow above 1000ft here. Clay can vouch for that... A couple local areas here have that elevation. Take this very lightly as profiles are razor thin as I said. If we can get under the strongest rates, we could see BIG snowflakes falling, but not sticking at the ground. Lots to take away from this. I am likely going to do a little traveling around the state to enjoy whatever comes our way.
6Z

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/ky/total_snow_10to1/1612591200/1612699200-FpEWx877rpo.png)

12Z

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/ky/total_snow_10to1/1612612800/1612699200-JzeiZoPupVQ.png)



This looks very similar to our first storm of the season where favored areas in Williamson and SW got 2-4" of snowfall.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/ky/total_snow_10to1/1612612800/1612699200-gCyEvGP1xo4.png)




*******************************

12Z - Using a bit different way to calculate . Just take note, nothing verbatim here.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/ky/total_snow_kuchera/1612612800/1612699200-GklWdn0t2Fw.png)

Yep, be fun to nowcast later today. As you say, razor thin profiles will likely have a select few big weiners...I mean winners.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clay on February 06, 2021, 08:45:38 AM
My thoughts haven't changed. Best setup for a warning criteria snowfall in Middle TN since perhaps 2016 if you're playing the margin of error.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 08:47:02 AM
My thoughts haven't changed. Best setup for a warning criteria snowfall in Middle TN since perhaps 2016 if you're playing the margin of error.

Which is why I stated a thread. Lets bring the storm analysis back without the banter.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 10:08:14 AM
12Z GFS VS 00Z last night. Global models are still trying to figure out the timing and and where the ZR/IP line sets up. SN to the NW but lighter amounts as QPF on the northern side is lighter. And boy oh boy does the GFS bring down some cold air.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_22.png)
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_20.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 10:15:37 AM
/This would not be a good thing if this were to verify.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/frzr_total/1612612800/1613088000-XCC7hGnhxEc.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2021, 10:20:52 AM
/This would not be a good thing if this were to verify.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/frzr_total/1612612800/1613088000-XCC7hGnhxEc.png)
Especially with temperatures it has behind it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2021, 10:21:48 AM
If some are wondering why the Euro is delaying the cold...this is the Euro MJO forecast. It is forecasting the signal to circle around in 7 (not a good phase for us) and never make it into 8 (a much better phase for us). I wouldn't trust it past a few days, but I do think by mid month as the signal either fades or goes into phase 8, we could be in a better spot (especially if we keep the negative AO/NAO).

(https://i.ibb.co/fYCfcHj/MJO-2-6-21.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 06, 2021, 10:23:58 AM
/This would not be a good thing if this were to verify.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/frzr_total/1612612800/1613088000-XCC7hGnhxEc.png)

Those amounts are likely overdone.  The accretion rate will likely be lowered due to rate of precip.  But even cutting those by 50% will be totes bad.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2021, 10:26:36 AM
Another good image showing the MJO phases for Jan/Feb/Mar.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 06, 2021, 10:26:53 AM
GFS is nasty cold from Friday morning through next weekend. Looks like it's going to reload the cold after that.  ::cold::.  Odds of it verifying are tiny, but a serious four day Arctic outbreak.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2021, 10:35:29 AM
If some are wondering why the Euro is delaying the cold...this is the Euro MJO forecast. It is forecasting the signal to circle around in 7 (not a good phase for us) and never make it into 8 (a much better phase for us). I wouldn't trust it past a few days, but I do think by mid month as the signal either fades or goes into phase 8, we could be in a better spot (especially if we keep the negative AO/NAO).

(https://i.ibb.co/fYCfcHj/MJO-2-6-21.jpg)
We all know the Euro is king but we are talking about a storm that starts in 4 days. The CMC is a carbon copy of the GFS.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2021, 10:35:55 AM
GFS is nasty cold from Friday morning through next weekend. Looks like it's going to reload the cold after that.  ::cold::.  Odds of it verifying are tiny, but a serious four day Arctic outbreak.

Yeah, with the Euro going the other way the last couple days, it gives me concerns the GFS may be doing GFS things. Be nice if the GFS16 would start running again, it was doing much better than the GFS this winter.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2021, 10:41:46 AM
Actually after looking closer the CMC has the ice but does not dump the arctic in behind it. It keeps us in the battle zone area.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 10:50:30 AM
Actually after looking closer the CMC has the ice but does not dump the arctic in behind it. It keeps us in the battle zone area.

That is really the question. This setup is likely going to occur numerous times with that boundary moving North/South during that time. Miss on the first, score on the second. The threat for more of a Frozen Winter storm is on the table now. However we still need to get to that 72 hour time frame before making more localized assumptions.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 06, 2021, 10:51:16 AM
Yeah, with the Euro going the other way the last couple days, it gives me concerns the GFS may be doing GFS things. Be nice if the GFS16 would start running again, it was doing much better than the GFS this winter.

I saw somebody post the new/para Euro this morning elsewhere. Don't know anything about it, but it appeared to be splitting the difference between the GFS and regular Euro. Everything still on the table.  ::shrug::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 10:58:01 AM

Hi next friday
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/t2m_f/1612612800/1613152800-0DGdvZu1p7s.png)

Low Friday Night/Saturday AM  ( -10F )
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/t2m_f/1612612800/1613217600-0wW91erRZv4.png)

Sat High  (6F)

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/t2m_f/1612612800/1613250000-VFQkvrJgDpA.png

Back down to Zero

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/t2m_f/1612612800/1613293200-OUYbzZlq4n4.png)


High Sunday
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/t2m_f/1612612800/1613325600-jqUsIBuTJXs.png)

And another night below 0F
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ky/t2m_f/1612612800/1613379600-kx0xQgeVwxs.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 06, 2021, 11:02:59 AM
The CMC looks like a ridiculous ice storm on the 40 Corridor. Next queue the model with 60
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 06, 2021, 11:05:20 AM
It seems to me that the current GFS modeling for midweek and beyond is out of step with its teleconnection forecasts.  Its MJO prediction is almost identical to the ECMWF, and it shows the NAO going positive around February 10.  I am probably missing something, but to me neither of these predictions would suggest such a cold outbreak for the Mid South.  The GFS does, however, predict a positive turn in the PNA as we approach Valentine's Day.  Perhaps the modeling is banking on that to trump the other, less favorable teleconnections?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2021, 11:07:22 AM
The CMC looks like a ridiculous ice storm on the 40 Corridor. Next queue the model with 60
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 06, 2021, 11:07:52 AM
The CMC looks like a ridiculous ice storm on the 40 Corridor. Next queue the model with 60
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 06, 2021, 11:12:31 AM
At this point cheering for Euro seems correct.  If Euro even shows a hint of what gfs is showing then.....
It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 06, 2021, 11:15:29 AM
At this point cheering for Euro seems correct.  If Euro even shows a hint of what gfs is showing then.....
It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 06, 2021, 11:16:46 AM
The UKMet hammers NE Arkansas and NW Tennessee.

(https://i.imgur.com/4InUmWY.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 06, 2021, 11:18:48 AM
euro will lead the way wherever that takes us

If anything 2020 and 2021 has shown the Euro isn't this super model that always right.  It has busted a lot in the past several months.
Personally, I don't put my chips on the Euro nearly as much as others.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 06, 2021, 11:20:10 AM
The UKMet hammers NE Arkansas and NW Tennessee.

(https://i.imgur.com/4InUmWY.png)

I swear to God, interstate corridors are somehow calculated in the model's output.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 06, 2021, 11:22:32 AM
The UKMet hammers NE Arkansas and NW Tennessee.

(https://i.imgur.com/4InUmWY.png)
Probably going to be freezing rain and sleet. But it doesn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 06, 2021, 11:25:29 AM
Probably going to be freezing rain and sleet. But it doesn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 06, 2021, 11:27:33 AM
Meaning middle is going to be ice ice.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 06, 2021, 11:29:49 AM
Anything shown on the models is almost certainly going to have a an ice tongue further south than shown due to the shallow nature of the cold air just past the front.
agree with you . Arctic air is always hard for the models to figure . Usually under done most cases
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 06, 2021, 11:30:23 AM
I swear to God, interstate corridors are somehow calculated in the model's output.
I wouldn't be surprised...Jonesboro to Dyersburg is usually the sweet spot for this area and they are way overdue.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 06, 2021, 11:51:33 AM
It seems to me that the current GFS modeling for midweek and beyond is out of step with its teleconnection forecasts.  Its MJO prediction is almost identical to the ECMWF, and it shows the NAO going positive around February 10.  I am probably missing something, but to me neither of these predictions would suggest such a cold outbreak for the Mid South.  The GFS does, however, predict a positive turn in the PNA as we approach Valentine's Day.  Perhaps the modeling is banking on that to trump the other, less favorable teleconnections?

Remember since cold air is dense we tend to get most of our winter storms right as we are leaving a cold/wintry pattern.  The timeframe of that storm would fit right into the departure of the wintry pattern.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on February 06, 2021, 11:55:31 AM
Gotta love how the CMC brings in the first system Thursday as a decent icing event....not huge but certainly noteworthy. And then by day 10 just crushes the area with the hammer ice storm. GFS has the second storm idea but is a little warmer so not all winter ptype.

I think the idea from snowdog of the Euro's wildly different scenario being tied to it's MJO phase is on point. The question is if it's right. I honestly have no clue. It certainly could be. But the Euro isn't the King as it was 5-10 years...so I don't think it's wise to assume it will be right. Again...I have zero idea how this will play out. It could be anywhere between single digit temps and bone dry to 60s and thunderstorms with everything in between. What chaos.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: WXHD on February 06, 2021, 12:11:19 PM
Yeah, the CMC is bringing the mother of all ice storms. Not a fan of that solution.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 06, 2021, 12:26:33 PM
Euro so far still looks warm. Has Memphis and Nashville at or near 60 on Thursday at noon

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2021, 12:29:49 PM
Gotta love how the CMC brings in the first system Thursday as a decent icing event....not huge but certainly noteworthy. And then by day 10 just crushes the area with the hammer ice storm. GFS has the second storm idea but is a little warmer so not all winter ptype.

I think the idea from snowdog of the Euro's wildly different scenario being tied to it's MJO phase is on point. The question is if it's right. I honestly have no clue. It certainly could be. But the Euro isn't the King as it was 5-10 years...so I don't think it's wise to assume it will be right. Again...I have zero idea how this will play out. It could be anywhere between single digit temps and bone dry to 60s and thunderstorms with everything in between. What chaos.

I would agree, other models have closed the gap on verification score, including the GFS 16 which was giving it a good run this winter. Too bad they cant keep it up amd running.

I lean Euro right now because of the long range resolution. As you say, there will be a very shallow but very cold surface layer pushing south. I would assume the Euro is most equipped to handle such fine detail...but who knows at this point. Either solution wouldnt surprise me.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 06, 2021, 12:32:40 PM
Interesting how NWS ohx my local forecast doesn't mention ice at all, just snow chances thursday and friday, just shows that nobody knows
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 06, 2021, 12:37:46 PM
The euro was a colder run, not like gfs but it for sure trended colder. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 12:40:20 PM
euro will lead the way wherever that takes us

Excellent analysts
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 12:41:20 PM
agree with you . Arctic air is always hard for the models to figure . Usually under done most cases

 ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::unclesam:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::bacon:: ::bacon:: ::flag:: ::flag:: ::twocents:: ::yum:: :laugh: :laugh:    You did it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 12:44:13 PM
The euro was a colder run, not like gfs but it for sure trended colder. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

remeber how far behind it was the other day. It was the last to catch on and cave. Euro is not King anymoe, at least to the extent that it was. I am sure someone can post up verification of them all.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 06, 2021, 12:44:34 PM
The euro was a colder run, not like gfs but it for sure trended colder. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
I'm going to track this first minor system and worry about the next one tomorrow. ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 06, 2021, 12:45:39 PM
Excellent analysts

*analysis*
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 06, 2021, 01:10:29 PM
Most definitely the euro has not been out front all alone lately.  The models have closed the gap.  GFS Para was leading till went offline. 

I read where Euro was 30 degrees colder for next Saturday than last nights run.  Lol.  Maybe it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2021, 01:42:23 PM
Euro has the big storm towards the end of run. It is too warm also. Although it is very close for some of west Tennessee.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 06, 2021, 01:55:14 PM
For fun here is temp forecasts for Friday morning at 6am at Memphis :

GFS 11 no precip ; som previous icing
Cmc 15 and icing continuing
UKMET 17 with icing continuing
Euro 34 no precip previous rain moved east. This is the warmest temp at this time of the last 4 runs. It just continues to warm.
Euro control 32 precip moving out
Euro ENS 27 precip moving out

The euro ens and its control run are pure gold after that. Screw the euro ops.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 06, 2021, 02:11:12 PM
For fun here is temp forecasts for Friday morning at 6am at Memphis :

GFS 11 no precip ; som previous icing
Cmc 15 and icing continuing
UKMET 17 with icing continuing
Euro 34 no precip previous rain moved east. This is the warmest temp at this time of the last 4 runs. It just continues to warm.
Euro control 32 precip moving out
Euro ENS 27 precip moving out

The euro ens and its control run are pure gold after that. Screw the euro ops.
What about Saturday temps at noon with all runs? Just curious how each of the models are handling the possible cold air

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 06, 2021, 02:15:08 PM
What about Saturday temps at noon with all runs? Just curious how each of the models are handling the possible cold air

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Saturday at noon
GFS 9
Cmc 27
UKMET doesn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 06, 2021, 02:35:51 PM
In Johnson City we now only show one day below 40 for a high. Just crazy stuff. I have no idea what will happen. It actually shows the cold getting close to NE Tenn and then moving back west. Crazy looking runs


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on February 06, 2021, 03:20:42 PM
I don't think any forecast can be trusted until the system enters the CONUS.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 06, 2021, 03:30:14 PM
I have not seen it but heard the EPS is incredible for TN.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: wfrogge on February 06, 2021, 03:35:58 PM
From snow to severe. Welcome to Dixie
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 06, 2021, 03:40:16 PM
From snow to severe. Welcome to Dixie

Definitely could happen but thinking not going to.  The op is out to lunch.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on February 06, 2021, 03:50:52 PM
MEG is really throwing it all out there now LOL (new Shelby Co Zone forecast)
Quote
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHOWERS 
WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 06, 2021, 03:51:46 PM
MEG is really throwing it all out there now LOL (new Shelby Co Zone forecast)
Thunder Ice Flizzardcane 2021

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2021, 03:52:46 PM
Definitely could happen but thinking not going to.  The op is out to lunch.
Definitely has an amped system at that range. The northern part of that cape could be thunder freezing rain/sleet.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 06, 2021, 04:48:30 PM
Like see a tornado
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 06, 2021, 04:58:14 PM
Sunshine and 48 degrees here for the last couple of hours.  Seeing clouds to the West now. North Carolina peeps are already getting snow and posting pics of it.  Dickson will be lucky to even get a dusting.  My brother is still hanging on.  They are keeping him comfortable and his kids are all there with him.  It has been a sad couple of days.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 06, 2021, 05:02:55 PM
Thunder ice!  I wish it were TSSN+!

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: wfrogge on February 06, 2021, 05:25:00 PM
Definitely could happen but thinking not going to.  The op is out to lunch.

I wouldn't put money on it happening or not happening at this point. If anybody here can forecast the next 10 days with any accuracy they might have super powers
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 06, 2021, 05:39:25 PM
Happy hour GFS holds with the ice. It has two snows after that.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 06, 2021, 06:02:39 PM
The two snows after the ice is a great setup but we know it will be gone at midnight


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 06, 2021, 06:52:26 PM
The two snows after the ice is a great setup but we know it will be gone at midnight


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We have a banter thread.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 06, 2021, 07:56:07 PM
I wonder how many wx offices are saying please let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 08:19:59 PM
I wonder how many wx offices are saying please let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 06, 2021, 08:33:46 PM
In the east probably 75%. Even tonight I am not sure what to expect in Johnson City. It is currently 37 and we had light snow for 5 minutes but nothing since. Heavy precipitation probably drops us to the low 30
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 06, 2021, 09:32:56 PM
The GFS is below freezing for 7 straight days here beginning next weekend. Big snowstorm in the middle of it. I kinda hope it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 09:53:08 PM
The GFS is below freezing for 7 straight days here beginning next weekend. Big snowstorm in the middle of it. I kinda hope it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: cliftown04 on February 06, 2021, 10:13:37 PM
Where is that significant ice area for next week going to set up? It sure is looking likely for someone. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. As we
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 10:50:04 PM
Where is that significant ice area for next week going to set up? It sure is looking likely for someone. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. As we
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Huntermc18 on February 06, 2021, 10:50:21 PM
can anyone pull zr totals from the system next week for the 0z GFS?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 06, 2021, 11:00:54 PM
00z CMC is showing a 50+ hour long ice storm for Middle TN..and its still going.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 06, 2021, 11:09:51 PM
Well the model watching continues lol.  Will the cold air be further south than models are seeing.  Million dollar question.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 06, 2021, 11:13:14 PM
Canadian shows me in an ice storm for 60 hours to end the 0z run

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 11:28:38 PM
00z CMC is showing a 50+ hour long ice storm for Middle TN..and its still going.  ::rofl::

Ill post the total's in a second lol. Its going to be insanity.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 06, 2021, 11:33:15 PM
Not as much as I thought but thankfully it is showing a change over to IP.

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/nashville/sleet_total/1612656000/1613412000-tN1wKNUsh2M.png)

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/nashville/frzr_total/1612656000/1613412000-QqxLtSvmVgk.png)

The big push.....

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/nashville/sleet_total/1612656000/1613466000-kUhPRUvxjbU.png)

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/nashville/frzr_total/1612656000/1613444400-qxGkjGERQPw.png)

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 06, 2021, 11:37:49 PM
Buzzkill alert: The UKMET reversed course from its 12z runs for barely a light icing event and much warmer. Temps nearing 65 and maybe 70 in most  places Wednesday before cooling off to just below freezing for as precip moves out on Thursday and Friday. Nothing like the major cold forecast by the GFS or CMC. That
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 06, 2021, 11:53:57 PM
Buzzkill alert: The UKMET reversed course from its 12z runs for barely a light icing event and much warmer. Temps nearing 65 and maybe 70 in most  places Wednesday before cooling off to just below freezing for as precip moves out on Thursday and Friday. Nothing like the major cold forecast by the GFS or CMC. That
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: lyngo on February 06, 2021, 11:56:18 PM
Buzzkill alert: The UKMET reversed course from its 12z runs for barely a light icing event and much warmer. Temps nearing 65 and maybe 70 in most  places Wednesday before cooling off to just below freezing for as precip moves out on Thursday and Friday. Nothing like the major cold forecast by the GFS or CMC. That
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 06, 2021, 11:58:32 PM
CMC brought the ICE hammer down again across much of Tennessee. Some was in the form of sleet though I am pretty sure. ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 07, 2021, 12:00:24 AM
CMC brought the ICE hammer down again across much of Tennessee. Some was in the form of sleet though I am pretty sure. ::snowman::
Snowman we need some magic.  CMC is not one I want in my corner.  Need EURO to drive this magic.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 07, 2021, 12:20:15 AM
Hopefully GFS comes to reality and says enough playing games.  Short sleeves wx does not sound bad at all especially when we were only going to get ice.  Ice can stay the heck away.   Euro is still king it would appear.
euro will always be king...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 07, 2021, 12:29:34 AM
euro will always be king...

Bruce, you may have a penchant for European computer programmers like I do for Japanese car manufacturers.

The Japanese make the best cars. Period.  ;D
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jilly on February 07, 2021, 12:37:58 AM
An inch of snow so far near Johnson's Chapel in DeKalb County. Snow plow just went down HWY 70 toward Sparta.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 07, 2021, 05:02:48 AM
The Euro has struggled big time this year


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 07, 2021, 05:33:54 AM
The Euro has struggled big time this year


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agree, although eps came in slightly warmer  also ... who knows .
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 07, 2021, 08:09:54 AM
The GFS keeps insisting it is going to get cold... you have to give it kudos for persistence.  After a NW TN icing event on Thursday/Friday, the 06Z model run still shows a statewide arctic snow on Valentine's Day, albeit not as impressive as yesterday's depictions.  This event is followed by a two-day ice to snow event commencing on February 16. This run keeps the TPV north of the Canadian border, so the overall look is a tad warmer.    Still, this run suggests temperatures stay at or below freezing for nearly a week starting Thursday night.

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 07, 2021, 08:31:06 AM
I'm now at 4" for the year with this little one added in.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 07, 2021, 08:41:29 AM
Buzzkill alert: The UKMET reversed course from its 12z runs for barely a light icing event and much warmer. Temps nearing 65 and maybe 70 in most  places Wednesday before cooling off to just below freezing for as precip moves out on Thursday and Friday. Nothing like the major cold forecast by the GFS or CMC. That
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 07, 2021, 08:45:59 AM
Buzzkill part deux...MJO still looks like an elephant painted it...no Phase 8. Doing doughnuts in phase 7.

I believe some one made mother nature mad at us ::shrug::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 07, 2021, 08:56:07 AM
So, FWIW, we'll need to get the breaks but, from a setup standpoint, this has almost unlimited upside for Memphis.  Obviously, we all know that we could walk away with nothing here and that could easily happen. 

Let's focus on the upside here, though.   This is the classic big overrunning event here and, if the boundary sets up just right to where you're in the area with both the correct thermal profile and copious QPF, then you could see almost any amount if you see this boundary stall out.

I'll bring something up to remember from the past but, in overrunning events, models have almost universally struggled with the penetration of cold air and it has almost always been under modeled in that cold air usually went further south and east than modeled in the mid-range.  Is that still true?  I dunno.

Okay, so with that caveat in mind,  the setup is in play here and someone on this forum could literally get jackpotted by any precip type.  Someone could get literally inches of QPF here....one other thing is that the precip in terms of QPF is also generally under modeled to a degree here ..not always...but there have been many events where QPF was double or more than what we're seeing modeled at this range.

This is the type of setup where an overrunning can occur and we could see an all-time event for someone here.  I happen to think Memphis is in a good a place as any for this and I could easily see someone getting huge amounts here. 

I think a certain weather person went back thru all the years and ob sites and found the highest storm totals in the MEG CWA  and came across two events of 40+ and this is how you get it.  Overrun with Gulf moisture, stalled boundary, and at the perfect intersection of deep cold air and monstrous QPF. 

So, while the Euro and GFS do battle, I like to look at the tremendous upside here and, for whatever reason, I like our chances. 

When I dream, I dream of a solid 5 feet because,  why shouldn't I?  I mean, it is possible, so why not?

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 07, 2021, 09:40:10 AM
So, FWIW, we'll need to get the breaks but, from a setup standpoint, this has almost unlimited upside for Memphis.  Obviously, we all know that we could walk away with nothing here and that could easily happen. 

Let's focus on the upside here, though.   This is the classic big overrunning event here and, if the boundary sets up just right to where you're in the area with both the correct thermal profile and copious QPF, then you could see almost any amount if you see this boundary stall out.

I'll bring something up to remember from the past but, in overrunning events, models have almost universally struggled with the penetration of cold air and it has almost always been under modeled in that cold air usually went further south and east than modeled in the mid-range.  Is that still true?  I dunno.

Okay, so with that caveat in mind,  the setup is in play here and someone on this forum could literally get jackpotted by any precip type.  Someone could get literally inches of QPF here....one other thing is that the precip in terms of QPF is also generally under modeled to a degree here ..not always...but there have been many events where QPF was double or more than what we're seeing modeled at this range.

This is the type of setup where an overrunning can occur and we could see an all-time event for someone here.  I happen to think Memphis is in a good a place as any for this and I could easily see someone getting huge amounts here. 

I think a certain weather person went back thru all the years and ob sites and found the highest storm totals in the MEG CWA  and came across two events of 40+ and this is how you get it.  Overrun with Gulf moisture, stalled boundary, and at the perfect intersection of deep cold air and monstrous QPF. 

So, while the Euro and GFS do battle, I like to look at the tremendous upside here and, for whatever reason, I like our chances. 

When I dream, I dream of a solid 5 feet because,  why shouldn't I?  I mean, it is possible, so why not?

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Now we talking.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 07, 2021, 09:45:31 AM
Memphis gets 5 feet but no one is around to enjoy it because a massive asteroid hit Earth months before causing global nuclear winter.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 07, 2021, 09:46:17 AM
ICON showing the arctic front pushing through middle tn and up against the plateau at hour 105. Below freezing from Nashville and points north and west. 25 in clarksville and upper teens back into west tn. Probably around freezing in nashville. Chattanooga and points in far east tn still in the 40's-low 50's.  ::popcorn::  ::cold::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 07, 2021, 09:58:53 AM
The 12zgfs will start it  s caving in towards the euro here shortly , watch
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 07, 2021, 10:02:26 AM
The 12zgfs will start it  s caving in towards the euro here shortly , watch
 

You really should be on the ECMWF payroll, Bruce.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 07, 2021, 10:02:51 AM
The 12zgfs will start it  s caving in towards the euro here shortly , watch
Negative Ghost Rider.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 07, 2021, 10:04:06 AM
Negative Ghost Rider.
lol not really . I seen this movie before Dyer .
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 07, 2021, 10:08:12 AM
The 12zgfs will start it  s caving in towards the euro here shortly , watch
So far the GFS says I will see you and raise you euro. 1049 HP in Minnesota at 138. ::popcorn::  ::cold::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 07, 2021, 10:12:20 AM
So far the GFS says I will see you and raise you euro. 1049 HP in Minnesota at 138. ::popcorn::  ::cold::  ::snowman::

About to drop a Monster. With these strong H pressure systems to our North and riding popping up throughout the runs its only a matter of time before we can slip something though that works out. It could be the wrong P type if we are not careful and someone complains about winter :P
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 07, 2021, 10:39:44 AM
Now we talking.
Five feet deep! 

I live on a cul-de-sac and I'm going to dig out a circle down to the street level and create a bar in the middle with 5 foot high walls benches, and we'll stick the drinks in holes in the wall.  Ill have snow benches and seats and an elevated sun deck for sun bathing.  I'll dig tunnels to my house and my neighbors and break out the bluetooth speakers and play "Being me two pina colodas....one for each hand....I'll set sail with Captain Morgan's..."

Kinda like this but fully enclosed to break the wind and better...






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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210207/44507f9eb2ee28ef95c991cec1c8aa8b.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 07, 2021, 10:52:05 AM
We got 4 inches of snow last night in Johnson City and most will be gone by tonight. I have never seen it melt that fast up here. We have had almost 20 inches so far so cheering for you guys in middle and West Tennessee to cash in. The latest run shows 3 storms in a row out of the gulf after this week. Crazy patterns


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 07, 2021, 11:00:01 AM
Watching these models the last few days is like watching one of those tabletop electric football games. All the players are on the field for something amazing to happen, but they all go in their own direction when put in to motion. It's entertaining and somewhat comical. We really have no idea what is about to happen. It could be anything from apocalyptic to mild spring like conditions.

(https://i.makeagif.com/media/9-21-2015/quw01N.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 07, 2021, 11:05:11 AM
Watching these models the last few days is like watching one of those tabletop electric football games. All the players are on the field for something amazing to happen, but they all go in their own direction when put in to motion. It's entertaining and somewhat comical. We really have no idea what is about to happen. It could be anything from apocalyptic to mild spring like conditions.

(https://i.makeagif.com/media/9-21-2015/quw01N.gif)
brings me back good memories because I loved  my electric football as a boy ...  and now the 12gefs is much warmer . Lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 07, 2021, 11:17:51 AM
brings me back good memories because I loved  my electric football as a boy ...  and now the 12gefs is much warmer . Lol
Except for Bruce since he loves the Euro so much.

Instead of electric football, he gets foosball

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 07, 2021, 11:28:52 AM
Watching these models the last few days is like watching one of those tabletop electric football games. All the players are on the field for something amazing to happen, but they all go in their own direction when put in to motion. It's entertaining and somewhat comical. We really have no idea what is about to happen. It could be anything from apocalyptic to mild spring like conditions.

I remember as a kid in the 80s my dad got out his old electric football set to show it to me. He was so excited, flipped it on and I just looked at him like wtf??? Then he showed me you used a little cotton compacted football to "pass" the ball. I was like, dad this sucks, can I go back to playing Techmo Bowl???
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 07, 2021, 12:16:35 PM
The 12zgfs will start it  s caving in towards the euro here shortly , watch
The euro sucks with these arctic air masses.  It has always sucked at it.  Yes the GFS over does them in the long term constantly, but it does a lot better within 5-7 days.
Thats not the say the euro has never gotten it right, but you are betting on something it is historically weak at.  You have to look at the teleconnections and big picture when choosing which models to buy into and simply put there is more big picture evidence for very cold temps.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 07, 2021, 12:22:11 PM
The euro sucks with these arctic air masses.  It has always sucked at it.  Yes the GFS over does them in the long term constantly, but it does a lot better within 5-7 days.
Thats not the say the euro has never gotten it right, but you are betting on something it is historically weak at.  You have to look at the teleconnections and big picture when choosing which models to buy into and simply put there is more big picture evidence for very cold temps.

The Tuesday Night-Wednesday situation reminds me of a setup in February 2008. Where the models especially the Euro had the freezing line on the Ohio River, but it ended up sinking into NW TN causing a light to moderate icing down into NW TN.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Navywxman on February 07, 2021, 12:22:41 PM
You would think folks would learn by now to NOT follow every iteration of model runs verbatim, but here we are yet again.

As an actual forecaster, seeing the weenies lose it more than us in the profession is actually quite hysterical.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 07, 2021, 12:38:10 PM
You would think folks would learn by now to NOT follow every iteration of model runs verbatim, but here we are yet again.

As an actual forecaster, seeing the weenies lose it more than us in the profession is actually quite hysterical.

Using models without knowing their limitations is like thinking you can plug up the vacuum cleaner outside to mow your yard.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 07, 2021, 12:39:05 PM
It's looking more and more likely if Memphis metro sees any wintry a precip its going to be ice.  Even more ominous (if you are superstitious)  is this storm is likely going to fall on the 1994 icestorm date almost exactly and have a very similar setup.  I am not going out for gas for the generator just yet but I am starting to prepare mentally for it.
Also I have overhead power lines in my front yard now  :-\

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 07, 2021, 12:44:36 PM
It's looking more and more likely if Memphis metro sees any wintry a precip its going to be ice.  Even more ominous (if you are superstitious)  is this storm is likely going to fall on the 1994 icestorm date almost exactly and have a very similar setup.  I am not going out for gas for the generator just yet but I am starting to prepare mentally for it.
Also I have overhead power lines in my front yard now  :-\
In 94, Memphis turned over to sleet.   Meanwhile, that Oxford region just got creamed...8 inch radial accretion.  Steel power transmission towers buckled. 

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 07, 2021, 12:51:02 PM
In 94, Memphis turned over to sleet.   Meanwhile, that Oxford region just got creamed...8 inch radial accretion.  Steel power transmission towers buckled. 

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Hopefully we will be dealing with sleet this time, but the setup where  you have multiple cold front go through then stall to the south, then come north, then get reinforced and sag back south tend to stretch out the boundary layer and make the cold shallow.  Like I said, not worried yet - but the players are taking the field.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 07, 2021, 12:51:54 PM
The difference in models continues to be astounding. Not just for this week but the next 10 days. The GFS has me at 3 degrees at hour 192. The Euro has me at 40.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 07, 2021, 12:52:56 PM
Hopefully we will be dealing with sleet this time, but the setup where  you have multiple cold front go through then stall to the south, then come north, then get reinforced and sag back south tend to stretch out the boundary layer and make the cold shallow.  Like I said, not worried yet - but the players are taking the field.
Yes, but I'm betting on under modeling the southward push of the cold air.

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 07, 2021, 12:53:51 PM
The difference in models continues to be astounding. Not just for this week but the next 10 days. The GFS has me at 3 degrees at hour 192. The Euro has me at 40.
Sounds to me, though, like the Euro just took a big step towards the GFS. 

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 07, 2021, 12:53:58 PM
The difference in models continues to be astounding. Not just for this week but the next 10 days. The GFS has me at 3 degrees at hour 192. The Euro has me at 40.

This is one of those times I wish all the weather vlogs on youtube didn't focus on the NE so much.  I would love to hear someone like DT from wx risk talk about this.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 07, 2021, 12:56:10 PM
This is one of those times I wish all the weather vlogs on youtube didn't focus on the NE so much.  I would love to hear someone like DT from wx risk talk about this.

The gefs is still pretty cold, but not as much as the op gfs.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 07, 2021, 12:56:37 PM
No doubt about it the euro went much colder this run! Still time to go either way but I certainly haven't lost any confidence for late next week into the weekend. ::popcorn::  ::yum::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 07, 2021, 01:00:24 PM
I think the models our suggesting the battle line is the Ohio River.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 07, 2021, 01:05:24 PM
Simple experience from living in the area for 30+ years is all models will under do the freezing line at the boundary layer by about 20-40 miles.  Not sure if that translates to the eastern part of the state as the MS river's alluvial plane and sometimes even the Ozark Plateau in AR/MO can 'enhance' the quality of the cold air at the boundary layer and make it penetrate further south. 

The MS river flood plain is an easy explanation, it just helps to funnel the air down and at the surface.  The Ozarks tend to damm up and delay the cold air, but once it seeps around over and through them it allows for a reservoir of cold air to hang back further north and continue to seep south for a time.  This is all just my thoughts and unfortunately has not been well studied, but anyone living here for as long as I have know what I mean.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 07, 2021, 01:07:41 PM
I think the models our suggesting the battle line is the Ohio River.

(https://i.imgur.com/1qNM1.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Volduff64 on February 07, 2021, 01:44:58 PM
Anyone have any good maps of the 94 ice storm for historically reference.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 07, 2021, 02:30:58 PM
Anyone have any good maps of the 94 ice storm for historically reference.
I remember that storm well, worked that storm at fire@rescue and then went home to tree limbs breaking in the woods behind my house. I remember going to work the morning the storm moved in and it was 26 degrees and raining steady and continued throughout the day and into the night. Then after I got home the next morning the power went out for 3 days. Good thing I had a generator. Many folks were without power 5-7 days and some up to 2 weeks. ::cold:: ::popcorn::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 07, 2021, 02:37:22 PM
One thing that does seem most likely is lots of liquid in some form next 10 days.  2-4
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 07, 2021, 02:37:45 PM
I'm a be honest.  If it comes down to rain or ice, I'll take all the rain.  Thankfully we never lost power in '94, but I remember it well.  I want no part of it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 07, 2021, 02:39:13 PM
One thing that does seem most likely is lots of liquid in some form next 10 days.  2-4
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 07, 2021, 02:46:34 PM
I'm a be honest.  If it comes down to rain or ice, I'll take all the rain.  Thankfully we never lost power in '94, but I remember it well.  I want no part of it.

No doubt I'll take 34 degree rain over ice all day every day. That mid 90s ice storm was no joke.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 07, 2021, 02:46:40 PM
Ensembles from either the GFS or Euro arent all that encouraging if you want snow. Really not all that enthusiastic about the next 5 days. More interested to see what follows that.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 07, 2021, 02:49:09 PM
I'm a be honest.  If it comes down to rain or ice, I'll take all the rain.  Thankfully we never lost power in '94, but I remember it well.  I want no part of it.

Amen and amen!  I experienced it in southeast KY.  No thanks.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 07, 2021, 02:51:02 PM
Simple experience from living in the area for 30+ years is all models will under do the freezing line at the boundary layer by about 20-40 miles.  Not sure if that translates to the eastern part of the state as the MS river's alluvial plane and sometimes even the Ozark Plateau in AR/MO can 'enhance' the quality of the cold air at the boundary layer and make it penetrate further south. 

The MS river flood plain is an easy explanation, it just helps to funnel the air down and at the surface.  The Ozarks tend to damm up and delay the cold air, but once it seeps around over and through them it allows for a reservoir of cold air to hang back further north and continue to seep south for a time.  This is all just my thoughts and unfortunately has not been well studied, but anyone living here for as long as I have know what I mean.
That's a fairly stout analysis and it backs up my observations over the years. 

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 07, 2021, 02:57:09 PM
Ensembles from either the GFS or Euro arent all that encouraging if you want snow. Really not all that enthusiastic about the next 5 days. More interested to see what follows that.
All things said...I believe the place you don't want to be (at least for western parts of the forum)  is within 50 miles south of the 2m 0C isotherm on modeling at this juncture.  I've seen that line go way south of modeling even within a couple of days. I've generally seen that the areas that are originally progged to get heavy ZR...end up getting light to moderate ZR with heavy sleet or sleet/snow or even mainly snow in these situations.

The main points are how much the models struggle with low-level cold air and....for western areas ... the geographical factors that bug referred to. 

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 07, 2021, 02:58:06 PM
FWIW, I just purchased new sleds for the kids...so I at least put my money where my mouth is. 

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: WXHD on February 07, 2021, 03:00:18 PM
I was young enough to enjoy sledding down monster hills in 94. 7 days without power led to my dads fish tank freezing. He was so defeated by being so powerless to help those fish that he never had another tank. We do not want ice.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 07, 2021, 03:01:41 PM
Ensembles from either the GFS or Euro arent all that encouraging if you want snow. Really not all that enthusiastic about the next 5 days. More interested to see what follows that.

Sucks just not 5 days ago we were looking at cold and possibly snow early this week.  Now we are again looking at 5 days out for another chance.  Maybe the GFS and Icon are onto  something.  The Euro did seem to trend towards the GFS.  I read where the GEFS is messed up because of where it has its MJO forecast at.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 07, 2021, 03:02:25 PM
OHX....

Quote
In the extended forecast, the period looks as though it could become rather tricky in terms of wintry precip potential. Lets start by looking at the wx pattern on Wednesday morning. SW-NE sfc boundary extending from Louisiana across eastern TN. In the upper levels, we see a west southwesterly flow with the subtropical jet strengthening near baja. The elevated height values indicate the need to observe the 850mb avg model wet bulb temps which are at +5C. Now, move forward to Thursday and sfc energy begins to form and migrate along the stalled boundary and precipitation picks up across our area. A this point, our sfc temps, and sfc wet bulbs are going to be critical. I will be leaning toward the Euro sfc temps and the NBE sfc guidance. Because of that, all the precip looks like rain through Thursday. But beginning Thursday night, a changeover to freezing rain in our far northwest is possible. The good news is that the latest Euro model shows that the upper pattern will change just enough to shove that boundary on through with just a low chance of snow for the late week period. The GFS is leaning toward some icing concerns in our northwest. The NAM, which usually handles the sfc temps of shallow cold air situations pretty well, only goes out to 84 hrs. Again, I will be leaning toward the Euro and NBM solutions which shows only light ice accum, if any in our northwest.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 07, 2021, 03:09:21 PM
OHX....
Cold rains definitely a good bet. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 07, 2021, 03:19:38 PM
I am in for winter weather, RIDE ON till it's over! ::yum::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 07, 2021, 04:13:56 PM
Sucks just not 5 days ago we were looking at cold and possibly snow early this week.  Now we are again looking at 5 days out for another chance.  Maybe the GFS and Icon are onto  something.  The Euro did seem to trend towards the GFS.  I read where the GEFS is messed up because of where it has its MJO forecast at.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 07, 2021, 04:26:04 PM
Happy hour holds strong. It does beef up the SER after that and does not drop the arctic as far south. It has the perfect setup for Valentines Day here. SER and a 1044 high over ND. Perfect for something big for west Tn. Not taking it seriously but sure looks good.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 07, 2021, 04:45:40 PM
I am going to have a tough time forecast wise for Tuesday Night-Wednesday Night in Western KY.  The freezing rain/rain line pretty much bisects the area.     
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 07, 2021, 06:49:39 PM
For the Thursday morning event, the 18Z Euro is now coming in colder. For instance, 0z run was 40 at Memphis and now it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 07, 2021, 07:20:50 PM
For the Thursday morning event, the 18Z Euro is now coming in colder. For instance, 0z run was 40 at Memphis and now it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 07, 2021, 07:21:45 PM
Five feet deep!!!!(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210208/fcf2e6a678201cd64aa5497c5bf6cb13.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 07, 2021, 07:31:24 PM
Five feet deep!!!!(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210208/fcf2e6a678201cd64aa5497c5bf6cb13.jpg)

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WINNING! ::yum::  ::cold::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 07, 2021, 11:35:02 PM
CMC is hoping if it shows the same storm 3 times, one of them will be right.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 08, 2021, 12:13:39 AM
Euro is certainly getting colder compared to the last few runs

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 08, 2021, 12:18:17 AM
Euro is certainly getting colder compared to the last few runs

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Same with the Ukie. Midnight on Thursday is 21 degrees colder than what ukmet was showing in it's 12z run this morning and last night's 0z run

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 08, 2021, 06:08:48 AM
6Z GFS on Valentines day. There's another system following 2/15 and 2/16.

(https://i.imgur.com/TWMZxmz.png)


Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: TNHunter on February 08, 2021, 06:14:32 AM
What happened to the second half of February torching?  I am all for a good snow but let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 08, 2021, 07:01:59 AM
What happened to the second half of February torching?  I am all for a good snow but let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 07:04:07 AM
What happened to the second half of February torching?  I am all for a good snow but let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 08, 2021, 07:11:01 AM
6Z GFS on Valentines day. There's another system following 2/15 and 2/16.

(https://i.imgur.com/TWMZxmz.png)
Wow. Someone tell it to stop! We
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 07:19:16 AM
Good look at the 00z Euro model trend for this Friday. As you can see, a few days ago, the Euro was wanting to dump the cold in the NW, southeast into our area, but as time went on it held the cold back in the NW.

(https://i.ibb.co/Zd3WTXW/trend-ecmwf-2021020600-f144-850t-nh.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on February 08, 2021, 07:22:20 AM
This Winter has turned into a joke as usual. I'm over it. Bring on Spring.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 08, 2021, 07:50:51 AM
Good look at the 00z Euro model trend for this Friday. As you can see, a few days ago, the Euro was wanting to dump the cold in the NW, southeast into our area, but as time went on it held the cold back in the NW.

(https://i.ibb.co/Zd3WTXW/trend-ecmwf-2021020600-f144-850t-nh.gif)
mjo stuck. As we head later into month pattern looking very La Ni
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 07:51:38 AM
Getting a little freezing mist/drizzle out there this morning.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 08, 2021, 07:53:42 AM
0Z EPS much colder than previous runs. Most likely the TPV is going to sit around lake superior. This would keep western sections colder - or at least a closer proximity than eastern in general. Saturday and especially Sunday looks really cold. Will be tough to get that air mass warmed in time for the next trough but we shall see. The GFS is more bullish for the Sunday system.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 07:55:04 AM
mjo stuck. As we head later into month pattern looking very La Ni
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 08, 2021, 07:58:28 AM
Well, I'm ready for that sucker to get stuck in a phase that is actually good for our area, winter weather wise. If it were to get into say Phase 8, it wouldn't see it running circles like Mahomes in the backfield last night in the Super Bowl, you'd see it straight-line run like Usain Bolt right on through in record time.  ::evillaugh::
Go for the null stage and let the other factors take over. Null is where most winters storms take place around here.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 08, 2021, 08:07:31 AM
The 06Z GFS keeps both Memphis and Nashville below freezing for a full week beginning Thursday. I understand it's a single deterministic 06Z GFS run so I don't believe it for a hot minute. However, it does show there is still loads of potential for winter weather over the next two weeks or longer. I get the feeling some might be giving up a bit early.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 08:14:48 AM
Go for the null stage and let the other factors take over. Null is where most winters storms take place around here.

Interestingly, if you run your numbers with both negative and strong negative on both AO/NAO, you don't get many storms period. I think 4 in the null and 6 in Phase 8. When you then include weak negative on both the AO/NAO...a lot more storms pop up. Looking at both the MJO and NAO/AO forecasts, both seem to be moving in the right direction to increase probabilities toward the latter half of the month as the MJO goes either null or Phase 8 and the NAO/AO relax a little.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 08:19:13 AM
Interestingly, if you run your numbers with both negative and strong negative on both AO/NAO, you don't get many storms period. I think 4 in the null and 6 in Phase 8. When you then include weak negative on both the AO/NAO...a lot more storms pop up. Looking at both the MJO and NAO/AO forecasts, both seem to be moving in the right direction to increase probabilities toward the latter half of the month as the MJO goes either null or Phase 8 and the NAO/AO relax a little.

For the teleconnection novices (like me), are the expectations that the NAO/AO, MJO, etc. realistic with the barrel full of cow ::poo:: we're getting from the globals now?  Seems that we're expecting the MJO to take a dive into stage 8 (whatever TF that means) but we've been saying that for two weeks it seems, and it keeps getting pushed back, same as the expected cold.  Are our expectations too high that we're going to get to where we want to be?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 08, 2021, 08:29:14 AM
The 06Z GFS keeps both Memphis and Nashville below freezing for a full week beginning Thursday. I understand it's a single deterministic 06Z GFS run so I don't believe it for a hot minute. However, it does show there is still loads of potential for winter weather over the next two weeks or longer. I get the feeling some might be giving up a bit early.  ::coffee::
Valentines day looks more like a snow event on the GFS now, there is still a period of ice showing up for nw tn on the 11th that has been on the euro for some time. The period seems pretty loaded from sunday forward. Folks are getting antsy and I catch myself as well but I think winter is going to show up in Tennessee in the coming days and into next week. ::yum::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 08:32:50 AM
For the teleconnection novices (like me), are the expectations that the NAO/AO, MJO, etc. realistic with the barrel full of cow ::poo:: we're getting from the globals now?  Seems that we're expecting the MJO to take a dive into stage 8 (whatever TF that means) but we've been saying that for two weeks it seems, and it keeps getting pushed back, same as the expected cold.  Are our expectations too high that we're going to get to where we want to be?

Honestly, the MJO forecast looks as crazy as our day to day modeling does. There is a "consensus" that it stays in 7 for the next few days, after that it goes to ****. Looks like a 2 year old threw his spaghetti against the wall. But the general idea after, and I use general loosely here, is that it looks to be heading back to null. Euro looks more sure of this solution than the GFS, for whatever that is worth.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 08, 2021, 08:37:21 AM
who is ready for model mayhem today? starting out 12z suits... ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 08, 2021, 09:09:46 AM
Freezing rain has caused a pile up in OKC on I-40 this morning (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210208/ff48e4ad0846477d204eb51dad15230f.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210208/60b0d903756eb2bf9b6540a852181bdd.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 08, 2021, 09:13:08 AM
who is ready for model mayhem today? starting out 12z suits... ::coffee::
  Bruce , I cant wait for my 17 inches of snow that your King Euro had me getting tomorrow. I'll take pictures for you.  8)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 08, 2021, 09:17:20 AM
  Bruce , I cant wait for my 17 inches of snow that your King Euro had me getting tomorrow. I'll take pictures for you.  8)
dyer now I am only 50 miles from you. You get 17 inches. I be there with u lol enjoying it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 09:23:52 AM
12z NAM3 and NAM12 encouraging for those across NW TN Thursday.  Minimal impacts from IP/ZR.  Everyone S of a Memphis to Jackson to Portland line stays liquid.

I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson stay under ZR the longest, but I think these totals are overdone.  .60" of ZR across a metropolitan area is bad news.

(https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021020806/084/zr_acc.us_ov.png)

12z NAM skew for MEM at H81

(https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2021020806_081_35.14--89.94.png)

Saturated column with a decidedly ZR profile, but its close.  One degree or two the other way and this is a cold-a$$ rain or legit ice storm.

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 08, 2021, 09:26:50 AM
12z NAM3 and NAM12 encouraging for those across NW TN Thursday.  Minimal impacts from IP/ZR.  Everyone S of a Memphis to Jackson to Portland line stays liquid.
good thing, i want n take snow n sleet al day vs the ole fz rain... but i am getting concerned bout sunday night into monday... larger area of ice possible with  a stronger impulse with shallow arctic air in place
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 09:30:48 AM
I'm totally discounting the globals at this point.  They don't know whether to get out of bed or ::poo:: in it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 09:36:15 AM
I'm totally discounting the globals at this point.  They don't know whether to get out of bed or ::poo:: in it.

Yep, I'm looking out about 4 or 5 days, past that it is pointless right now.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 08, 2021, 09:39:26 AM
Profile picture uploaded, all caps removed, spells "arctic" correctly...

Where is BRUCE, and what have you done with him?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Crockett on February 08, 2021, 10:14:58 AM
(http://[attachimg=1])

The view out my front door this morning. No sun + sub-30
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Navywxman on February 08, 2021, 10:15:38 AM
Freezing rain has caused a pile up in OKC on I-40 this morning (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210208/ff48e4ad0846477d204eb51dad15230f.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210208/60b0d903756eb2bf9b6540a852181bdd.jpg)

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It's not even really much freezing rain but very persistent freezing drizzle and temps slowly falling below freezing. Folks think it's just wet, and then hit a bridge, overpass, etc., & it's game over.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 08, 2021, 10:18:07 AM
GFS for Valentines Day sure is nice to look at.  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 10:23:18 AM
GFS for Valentines Day sure is nice to look at.  ::snowman::

For BNA about 16 degrees and heavy snow, verbatim. 850's are VERY close though. I'd love to see it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Tamlin on February 08, 2021, 10:25:12 AM
GFS seems out to lunch to me. Its forecast is a little too fantastic to be considered synoptically sound for this time of year.

With that said, it produces a helluva gulf storm on the 12z models. New Orleans to Chattanooga gets absolutely crushed in ice. With monster snows along the I-40 corridor.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 08, 2021, 10:29:25 AM
gfs sure showing the classic clarksville special
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 08, 2021, 10:31:44 AM
For BNA about 16 degrees and heavy snow, verbatim. 850's are VERY close though. I'd love to see it.
I would also but seems a week ago we were thinking this week was heavy snow.  Oh how I wish.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 08, 2021, 10:33:07 AM
GFS for Valentines Day sure is nice to look at.  ::snowman::

Still loaded with opportunities fwiw:
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 08, 2021, 10:39:35 AM
She's a BEAUTY!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 08, 2021, 10:44:10 AM
I would also but seems a week ago we were thinking this week was heavy snow.  Oh how I wish.

I want to give you a hug!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 08, 2021, 10:47:39 AM
12z NAM3 and NAM12 encouraging for those across NW TN Thursday.  Minimal impacts from IP/ZR.  Everyone S of a Memphis to Jackson to Portland line stays liquid.

I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson stay under ZR the longest, but I think these totals are overdone.  .60" of ZR across a metropolitan area is bad news.

(https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021020806/084/zr_acc.us_ov.png)

12z NAM skew for MEM at H81

(https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2021020806_081_35.14--89.94.png)

Saturated column with a decidedly ZR profile, but its close.  One degree or two the other way and this is a cold-a$$ rain or legit ice storm.
The worst part for the Memphis area is that the heaviest precip would come in during the morning commute. Even if temps were borderline, bridges & overpasses would get bad... fast

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 08, 2021, 10:50:36 AM
12Z GFS holds with the full week below freezing look for the Memphis-Nashville corridor beginning Thursday. 12Z Canadian not far off either, both are loaded for bear.  ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 08, 2021, 10:52:47 AM
GFS 12Z looks real nice but kind of hard to believe it -0 -4 and snowing at my house.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 08, 2021, 10:57:53 AM
As long there is deep troughing over the west & southwest flow at the mid levels, anything is possible. Something will eventually come out of the four corners region for us

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 08, 2021, 10:59:01 AM
It really would be nice if even a portion of the GFS would pan out. That would patch in the snow holes from Dallas to Western Kentucky. West Tennessee and Nashville would get filled in nicely.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Scot on February 08, 2021, 11:01:58 AM
12z CMC seems pretty similar to the GFS.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 08, 2021, 11:05:03 AM
Looking at them temperatures first thing comes to my mind is it gets squashed further south. I hope not.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 08, 2021, 11:09:03 AM
She's a BEAUTY!!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold::  ::snowman::

yep that would pan out great for your area lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 11:17:54 AM
12z GFS is a mess.  My estimates.  Not a call. 

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/xnTbU17uU7YSAMAFtZW3Nhrfglv23nPuoCBzo0ZnQnTYnAZhIT74bAfymo9FvVgf5HzIVMNMuB7nemlxxnsjve5z2R_bJ3grc6ZY79q7yhMgeqXVSsCIiLUfTqC6eWifWkyvEPNpV9SV9cdfRMmwwl2JTPCQj8y3IUac1mFmUIJBpS7auz_yKQ4sBMb_vrDuuKTGEM3i61ERQAYXK5vwFQXGAJi695cE5h1lYRBbAEnrnUTSQTqADoEbQl3BWfWpLVI8TXAkHEtHAU93R3oI3RVQJd2dB64cI-iWZTdYkPakO5PMLc_RCrxHqMQaf3Qimi5SfPZ7lPL7d7g9zQLXX8KyMo_zS-4224rmmhEVLdJvimIbBeF4HhkI2cWbOL91cnRT7SY-vIEes4K5i0Q0sg3f5jAqjh_yL_2iTfc01yrN7g7m8KHQnuVz_TYhTGyomks8uBbxUGX4kyZIO5ZQ96K3mQrnqMXSL503VqR0PwdpjfPcE4yQ_K51AUba6QiWG8vbWJjtD2JS-BXkgar3crYUgBvz1lUyweYIrdRHE9BG9o9ci7a1ynOjMpuaD4Iwj5BlCTAOyruzRMsjyLFbSJZeJ7DWhDQ9vnr1RVl6c2Xric6VQl7C1XVfRc1QTUPHN81vARRYASCuG2gZYPGjdrG1IkVnvBWPqFyiYdWqsT-dRhlaIk1yVgm-SC_kCQ=w1108-h820-no?authuser=0)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 08, 2021, 11:25:56 AM
12z GFS is a mess.  My estimates.  Not a call. 

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/xnTbU17uU7YSAMAFtZW3Nhrfglv23nPuoCBzo0ZnQnTYnAZhIT74bAfymo9FvVgf5HzIVMNMuB7nemlxxnsjve5z2R_bJ3grc6ZY79q7yhMgeqXVSsCIiLUfTqC6eWifWkyvEPNpV9SV9cdfRMmwwl2JTPCQj8y3IUac1mFmUIJBpS7auz_yKQ4sBMb_vrDuuKTGEM3i61ERQAYXK5vwFQXGAJi695cE5h1lYRBbAEnrnUTSQTqADoEbQl3BWfWpLVI8TXAkHEtHAU93R3oI3RVQJd2dB64cI-iWZTdYkPakO5PMLc_RCrxHqMQaf3Qimi5SfPZ7lPL7d7g9zQLXX8KyMo_zS-4224rmmhEVLdJvimIbBeF4HhkI2cWbOL91cnRT7SY-vIEes4K5i0Q0sg3f5jAqjh_yL_2iTfc01yrN7g7m8KHQnuVz_TYhTGyomks8uBbxUGX4kyZIO5ZQ96K3mQrnqMXSL503VqR0PwdpjfPcE4yQ_K51AUba6QiWG8vbWJjtD2JS-BXkgar3crYUgBvz1lUyweYIrdRHE9BG9o9ci7a1ynOjMpuaD4Iwj5BlCTAOyruzRMsjyLFbSJZeJ7DWhDQ9vnr1RVl6c2Xric6VQl7C1XVfRc1QTUPHN81vARRYASCuG2gZYPGjdrG1IkVnvBWPqFyiYdWqsT-dRhlaIk1yVgm-SC_kCQ=w1108-h820-no?authuser=0)

Lock it in :)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 08, 2021, 11:30:39 AM
12z GFS is a mess.  My estimates.  Not a call. 

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/xnTbU17uU7YSAMAFtZW3Nhrfglv23nPuoCBzo0ZnQnTYnAZhIT74bAfymo9FvVgf5HzIVMNMuB7nemlxxnsjve5z2R_bJ3grc6ZY79q7yhMgeqXVSsCIiLUfTqC6eWifWkyvEPNpV9SV9cdfRMmwwl2JTPCQj8y3IUac1mFmUIJBpS7auz_yKQ4sBMb_vrDuuKTGEM3i61ERQAYXK5vwFQXGAJi695cE5h1lYRBbAEnrnUTSQTqADoEbQl3BWfWpLVI8TXAkHEtHAU93R3oI3RVQJd2dB64cI-iWZTdYkPakO5PMLc_RCrxHqMQaf3Qimi5SfPZ7lPL7d7g9zQLXX8KyMo_zS-4224rmmhEVLdJvimIbBeF4HhkI2cWbOL91cnRT7SY-vIEes4K5i0Q0sg3f5jAqjh_yL_2iTfc01yrN7g7m8KHQnuVz_TYhTGyomks8uBbxUGX4kyZIO5ZQ96K3mQrnqMXSL503VqR0PwdpjfPcE4yQ_K51AUba6QiWG8vbWJjtD2JS-BXkgar3crYUgBvz1lUyweYIrdRHE9BG9o9ci7a1ynOjMpuaD4Iwj5BlCTAOyruzRMsjyLFbSJZeJ7DWhDQ9vnr1RVl6c2Xric6VQl7C1XVfRc1QTUPHN81vARRYASCuG2gZYPGjdrG1IkVnvBWPqFyiYdWqsT-dRhlaIk1yVgm-SC_kCQ=w1108-h820-no?authuser=0)
2-3
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 08, 2021, 11:37:36 AM
Hard to imagine that much cold air for as long as it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 08, 2021, 11:41:15 AM
12z GFS is a mess.  My estimates.  Not a call. 

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/xnTbU17uU7YSAMAFtZW3Nhrfglv23nPuoCBzo0ZnQnTYnAZhIT74bAfymo9FvVgf5HzIVMNMuB7nemlxxnsjve5z2R_bJ3grc6ZY79q7yhMgeqXVSsCIiLUfTqC6eWifWkyvEPNpV9SV9cdfRMmwwl2JTPCQj8y3IUac1mFmUIJBpS7auz_yKQ4sBMb_vrDuuKTGEM3i61ERQAYXK5vwFQXGAJi695cE5h1lYRBbAEnrnUTSQTqADoEbQl3BWfWpLVI8TXAkHEtHAU93R3oI3RVQJd2dB64cI-iWZTdYkPakO5PMLc_RCrxHqMQaf3Qimi5SfPZ7lPL7d7g9zQLXX8KyMo_zS-4224rmmhEVLdJvimIbBeF4HhkI2cWbOL91cnRT7SY-vIEes4K5i0Q0sg3f5jAqjh_yL_2iTfc01yrN7g7m8KHQnuVz_TYhTGyomks8uBbxUGX4kyZIO5ZQ96K3mQrnqMXSL503VqR0PwdpjfPcE4yQ_K51AUba6QiWG8vbWJjtD2JS-BXkgar3crYUgBvz1lUyweYIrdRHE9BG9o9ci7a1ynOjMpuaD4Iwj5BlCTAOyruzRMsjyLFbSJZeJ7DWhDQ9vnr1RVl6c2Xric6VQl7C1XVfRc1QTUPHN81vARRYASCuG2gZYPGjdrG1IkVnvBWPqFyiYdWqsT-dRhlaIk1yVgm-SC_kCQ=w1108-h820-no?authuser=0)

Based on the run today thats not too shabby, it has the look of a WSW for i-65 and west, we shall see.....
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 11:57:49 AM
The GFS should be viewed as an outlier right now.  If the 12z Euro has something similar, then we can start making inferences, but it's rather startling that the 0z Euro had absolutely squadoosh this weekend.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 08, 2021, 12:01:06 PM
The GFS should be viewed as an outlier right now.  If the 12z Euro has something similar, then we can start making inferences, but it's rather startling that the 0z Euro had absolutely squadoosh this weekend.

to me euro has played catchup all season?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 08, 2021, 12:03:21 PM
The 12Z GFS is the most severe ice storm in Chattanooga in my lifetime. It's probably overdone though. The southern end of the valley isn't very susceptible to icing because even the slightest amount of WAA typically brings us above freezing. I would be more inclined to believe it if there was deep cold air firmly established ahead of the precip arrival, but this doesn't seem to be the case. Also worth mentioning that there doesn't appear to be a single instance of snow in the entire 384 hr run, despite all the potential being shown in the past several days.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 12:06:46 PM
King Euro enjoying the antics of the GFS Jester...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/Az8qq276ke2BO/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 12:10:41 PM
12z Euro trending colder with Thursday system. Pretty healthy freezing rain strip through NW TN. Close to Dyer.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 08, 2021, 12:16:08 PM
Euro going colder each run and that frozen precip keeps expanding south run to run

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 12:28:38 PM
LOL @ the Euro.   ::rofl:: ::rofl::

These models are stupid.  Every single one.

12z GFS H132...

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020812/132/prateptype_cat.us_ov.png)

12z Euro H132...

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021020812/132/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ov.png)

Something's missing.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on February 08, 2021, 12:32:17 PM
LOL @ the Euro.   ::rofl:: ::rofl::

These models are stupid.  Every single one.

12z GFS H132...

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020812/132/prateptype_cat.us_ov.png)

12z Euro H132...

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021020812/132/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ov.png)

Something's missing.
Average the two an we get a statewide hit for TN  ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 08, 2021, 12:34:00 PM
LOL @ the Euro.   ::rofl:: ::rofl::

These models are stupid.  Every single one.

12z GFS H132...

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020812/132/prateptype_cat.us_ov.png)

12z Euro H132...

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021020812/132/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ov.png)

Something's missing.
Maybe something in between.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 08, 2021, 12:34:53 PM
Actually the euro is probably overplaying the ULL that it digs all the way into Mexico. If that moderates over the next couple of runs you could see a gulf low

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 08, 2021, 12:36:39 PM
Thus far thing about euro it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 12:37:14 PM
Euro going colder each run and that frozen precip keeps expanding south run to run

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Here it is for those curious...(same day, just looks at the same time point from the past 5 or 6 Euro model runs, for those wondering)

(https://i.ibb.co/Wg1wDQ6/trend-ecmwf-full-2021020812-f072-prateptype-cat-ecmwf-us-ov.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 12:39:48 PM
Actually the euro is probably overplaying the ULL that it digs all the way into Mexico. If that moderates over the next couple of runs you could see a gulf low

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Yeah, the old "Four Corners bias".  And I don't think we're getting sampled yet, either.  Same thing happened to the event Saturday, too.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 12:43:02 PM
Actually the euro is probably overplaying the ULL that it digs all the way into Mexico. If that moderates over the next couple of runs you could see a gulf low

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Yeah, I'm not ready to believe the bone dry Euro look. That is ripe with a stalled out frontal push for days through the mid-south.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 08, 2021, 12:46:54 PM
Loads of potential, liking the trends! Bring on Old MEAN MAN WINTER!!!!! ::popcorn::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 08, 2021, 12:50:23 PM
look for my euro model to drop us a big bomb over the next 48 hours, just to much energy showing up with load potential...  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 08, 2021, 12:52:17 PM
I told yall before the Christmas snow that the Euro was full of ****. It still is. It's happening.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 08, 2021, 12:54:09 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210208/958767f8379d11fd0305ab15bacb2fe4.jpg)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210208/29497ccee617520dc6119e1a019175f5.jpg)

UKmet temps and 6 hour precip Saturday night at 6pm.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 08, 2021, 12:55:46 PM
I told yall before the Christmas snow that the Euro was full of ****. It still is. It's happening.
dont talk about my favorite model dyer... but its going pop a big one man, matter time bro lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 08, 2021, 12:59:38 PM
dont talk about my favorite model dyer... but its going pop a big one man, matter time bro lol

Build a statue of Bruce at the ECMWF HQ in Reading, UK!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 08, 2021, 01:09:54 PM
Yeah, I'm not ready to believe the bone dry Euro look. That is ripe with a stalled out frontal push for days through the mid-south.

Euro still gets us with ice, its just delayed a bit. Big takeaway from the 12Z runs is that its more and more likely that the cold is actually coming.  ::cold::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 08, 2021, 01:14:18 PM
My brother passed away at 1 this morning. I want a big snow, but only when I get back from Alabama. I thought this year was going to be better but not so far.  But a big snow would help so much. He always played in the snow with me. As adults we still got thrilled over snow too.  Sorry to post on the Feb forum but I consider many of you as my weather family!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 08, 2021, 01:18:16 PM
I always watch the GFS and Euro and many times they will eventually merge on the solution or something close to it. I also keep a eye on the canadian just because sometimes it can land a coup. But no doubt all models can have their moments. At the end of the day they are only a guide and hopefully end up close to the actual solution. Sometimes they hit it good, sometimes they don't. But leading up to this it just feels like we are gonna score this time at some point in the next 5-7 days at least. I am rested and ready so bring on old man winter and a winter wonderland! My snowchips are all on the table the upcoming 7-10 days!!!! Hopefully 2 or 3 good events and maybe a big dog at some point! ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on February 08, 2021, 01:19:14 PM
So sorry to hear this Beth. My prayers are with you and your family for peace and comfort. Travel safely and we'll all pull together to get you a big snow when you come home.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 08, 2021, 01:20:48 PM
So sorry Beth, my prayers are with you and the rest of the family. God Bless
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 01:21:25 PM
UKmet temps and 6 hour precip Saturday night at 6pm.

You captured the 00z Ukie, but the 12z shows roughly 0.15" QPF for BNA, 0.1" for Jackson and 0.06" for Memphis. Probably all snow for those places.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 08, 2021, 01:23:56 PM
Winter Storm Watches along the TN/KY border. So it starts
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 01:25:20 PM
My brother passed away at 1 this morning. I want a big snow, but only when I get back from Alabama. I thought this year was going to be better but not so far.  But a big snow would help so much. He always played in the snow with me. As adults we still got thrilled over snow too.  Sorry to post on the Feb forum but I consider many of you as my weather family!

Sorry to hear that news. Your family has been in my prayers. Sympathies, strength and peace be with your family during this time.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 08, 2021, 01:28:43 PM
My brother passed away at 1 this morning. I want a big snow, but only when I get back from Alabama. I thought this year was going to be better but not so far.  But a big snow would help so much. He always played in the snow with me. As adults we still got thrilled over snow too.  Sorry to post on the Feb forum but I consider many of you as my weather family!

So sorry for your loss I hope peace and comfort find you soon. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Susan on February 08, 2021, 01:28:56 PM
Beth, I am so sorry to hear about your brother's passing.  I lost my brother 14 years ago and every week something pops up making me long to talk with him.  Praying for peace for you and your family. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Lcwthrnut on February 08, 2021, 01:31:24 PM
Sorry to hear that Beth. Praying for you and your family. Now let
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 08, 2021, 01:36:13 PM
You captured the 00z Ukie, but the 12z shows roughly 0.15" QPF for BNA, 0.1" for Jackson and 0.06" for Memphis. Probably all snow for those places.
Good catch. If you don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 08, 2021, 01:36:30 PM
Prayers Beth. So sorry for you loss.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 08, 2021, 01:39:54 PM
So very sorry Beth for such a painful loss. Prayers for you and your family's comfort. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 08, 2021, 01:40:46 PM
Prayer for you and your family Beth.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 08, 2021, 01:41:10 PM
I have not looked at them but apparently the short term models are showing ice storm criteria plateau West day three? I know they did well on the last snow event this past weekend.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 01:48:53 PM
I have not looked at them but apparently the short term models are showing ice storm criteria plateau West day three? I know they did well on the last snow event this past weekend.

I mean besides the RGEM, neither NAM nor SREF is showing an ice storm for middle TN at day 3, unless there is some short term in house models that aren't public that is showing it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 08, 2021, 01:50:58 PM
Euro has some done some fishy flip-flopping.  At one point it had ice almost down to the Gulf early next week.  Then it flipped warm and put the ice/snow north of here.  Now, it's going back to cold again, putting TN right in the mix of it (literally). At least the GFS is somewhat less erratic and more consistent than the Euro has been lately. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 01:55:54 PM
Euro has some done some fishy flip-flopping.  At one point it had ice almost down to the Gulf early next week.  Then it flipped warm and put the ice/snow north of here.  Now, it's going back to cold again, putting TN right in the mix of it (literally). At least the GFS is somewhat less erratic and more consistent than the Euro has been lately.

Yeah, it's interesting to use the model trend feature on pivotal. After the crazy arctic Day After Tomorrow type run, it seems to have over corrected warm and is now finding a nice balance.

Also interesting to use the trend feature on the 2m temps in the short term and see how it handles the surface cold layer, is it under or over estimating that.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 08, 2021, 01:56:03 PM
My brother passed away at 1 this morning. I want a big snow, but only when I get back from Alabama. I thought this year was going to be better but not so far.  But a big snow would help so much. He always played in the snow with me. As adults we still got thrilled over snow too.  Sorry to post on the Feb forum but I consider many of you as my weather family!
So sorry, Beth

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 08, 2021, 01:57:34 PM
Yeah, it's interesting to use the model trend feature on pivotal. After the crazy arctic Day After Tomorrow type run, it seems to have over corrected warm and is now finding a nice balance.

Also interesting to use the trend feature on the 2m temps in the short term and see how it handles the surface cold layer, is it under or over estimating that.
And at the end of the day, all models are probably underestimating the shallow cold air

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 08, 2021, 02:00:25 PM
How is the icon in Relation compared to others short term models
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Drifter on February 08, 2021, 02:02:10 PM
So sorry to hear Beth. Prayers to you and your family!

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 08, 2021, 02:08:07 PM
Sorry for your loss Beth. Prayers your way.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 02:12:53 PM
Sorry for your loss, Beth.  Godspeed to you and your family.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 02:13:15 PM
Game on?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtuiVVFVkAAys8r?format=png&name=4096x4096)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 08, 2021, 02:20:05 PM
Game on?

(https://media1.giphy.com/media/VhLDaKFRBgB66IcUuj/giphy.gif)

But for real, It's looking more and more likely it gets pretty **** cold.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 02:20:49 PM
Be nice to get a gulf low to ride that mean boundary between moderate and slight.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 08, 2021, 02:29:12 PM
My brother passed away at 1 this morning. I want a big snow, but only when I get back from Alabama. I thought this year was going to be better but not so far.  But a big snow would help so much. He always played in the snow with me. As adults we still got thrilled over snow too.  Sorry to post on the Feb forum but I consider many of you as my weather family!

I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 02:48:54 PM
 ::coffee::

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY6.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 08, 2021, 02:53:16 PM
Game on?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtuiVVFVkAAys8r?format=png&name=4096x4096)

IDK i don't buy it yet...too many times in past 3 seasons has there been an "arctic outbreak" predicted to get here, only to moderate the closer you get to it.

Highs in 30's is just not arctic to me...maybe my mindset is wrong, but arctic for our region is teens and lower 20's for highs and single digits to -0 for lows?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on February 08, 2021, 02:54:49 PM
Love the new guy at the MRX office writing AFDs.. he's got a 'failed novelist's flair' to him..

However, beyond Saturday, the models are struggling to resolve the
energy in this progressive pattern. For it is then that the GFS
really rushes a strong weather system in from the southwest for
Saturday night and Sunday morning with lots of precip falling upon
our cold airmass, which is a potentially messy solution indeed. The
NBM and ECMWF (and even the Canadians eh) are much more conservative
with lingering and mostly insubstantial precip. We and surrounding
offices are going with the NBM-led majority but will watch what
happens to the GFS solution with interest.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 08, 2021, 03:37:54 PM
Since there is much confusion here, let me explain how this works.  You may choose between the concise explanation or the summary below.

Concise:  Five feet deep.

Summary:  GFS is onto something.  When this all pans out is not entirely certain but, bottom line, a very cold airmass, a lobe of the Polar Vortex will do battle with the SER, which is not particularly keen on dying due to La Nina.  When this happens, there will be an extremely sharp temperature gradient along the boundary between these airmasses.  As this extremely strong air mass pushes south and east, it will come up against the Southeast ridge and the southeastward progression will slow down greatly and perhaps even stall briefly.  Along and in the region to the WNW of this boundary, gulf moisture will be thrown over the cold airmass.  In some regions, this will mean freezing rain and/or sleet.  Further to the WNW, where colder surface temperatures dominate, the entirety of the column will also be subfreezing.  This will bring an epic even to those who are in the region where the entire column is below freezing.  Although I caution against interpreting any model verbatim, I would intepret the GFS at Memphis as being one that shows approximately 0.5" of QPF in the form of snow next weekend.  In my estimation, it is typical to the GFS significantly underestimate QPF in these situations at this range.  If I were to develop an upper bound for this output, I'd look first at QPF and say the actual in such a scenario could easily be 2-3x what is depicted.  Furthermore, I'd expect ratios to be higher, perhaps up to 25:1.

Furthermore, I'd develop a lower bound of 50% of depicted QPF (reason:  dry air)...and I'd put snow ratios at 8:1 (based on extremely cold boundary layer temps). 

Next, I'd develop the upper bound of 300% of depicted QPF and snow ratios of 25:1. 

From these, we could calculate the following lower and upper bounds as well as the blended:

1) Lower: 50% of depicted QPF....0.25" at ratios of 8:1.... we'll round to 2 inches here.
2) Upper: 300% of depicted QPF....1.5" at ratios of 25:1... we'll round to 38 inches here. 

3) Blended:  Based on the depictions, the mean between the two is 20 inches.

That said, we're going to look for the upper bound and another wave of moisture to ride up and do much the same thing and that's how we're getting to be.... FIVE FEET DEEP!!!


Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 03:42:45 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/ckq9EC11HL6HalZpiE/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 08, 2021, 03:44:45 PM
If you have any doubt at all--- the most extreme solution always wins since about March 2020!!! ::snowman:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 08, 2021, 03:47:18 PM
Since there is much confusion here, let me explain how this works.  You may choose between the concise explanation or the summary below.

Concise:  Five feet deep.

Summary:  GFS is onto something.  ...
That said, we're going to look for the upper bound and another wave of moisture to ride up and do much the same thing and that's how we're getting to be.... FIVE FEET DEEP!!!

I wish you were my neighbor.  Your optimism would be a refreshing change to the literal and figurative horse poop I get from my actual neighbors.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 08, 2021, 03:47:24 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/ckq9EC11HL6HalZpiE/giphy.gif)

FYI, Eric, so that people don't have to do the math themselves, 42" on that upper bound for Nashville! 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 08, 2021, 03:58:32 PM
I wish you were my neighbor.  Your optimism would be a refreshing change to the literal and figurative horse poop I get from my actual neighbors.

People are just depressed these days.  I know every day seems like the end of the world but what good is it gonna do to worry about it all the time?  We gotta think positive, here!  Let's get us a massive snowstorm!!!

It's about time to pop a Kanye/GOAT meme in here. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 03:59:02 PM
FYI, Eric, so that people don't have to do the math themselves, 42" on that upper bound for Nashville!

That would be, literally....

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/81116225.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 08, 2021, 04:02:49 PM
I'm worried the GFS IS onto something when it comes to the ice this weekend (or early next week).  The shallow cold air is slowly sinking our way like molasses.  Disturbances come along every few days in a very active pattern.  The storm coming through Thursday sends the cold air a little further south into our territory.  When the next disturbance comes along, we'll be the in the target zone for the freezing rain unless the depth of cold air is enough for it to be more snow or sleet.  But that doesn't seem to be the case in KY Thursday--more ice and little snow.

Gathering my flashlights and batteries, and priming the gas stove.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 08, 2021, 04:08:20 PM
That would be, literally....

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/81116225.jpg)

 ::rofl::

So deep, you could take a deuce in broad daylight in your neighbor's front yard and it wouldn't get discovered until April!   ::shrug::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 08, 2021, 04:10:03 PM
18Z GFS has the ice getting into west TN Thursday.  Definitely a southward trend.  At Nashville's doorstep.

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: WXHD on February 08, 2021, 04:11:43 PM


Gathering my flashlights and batteries, and priming the gas stove.

Collecting camping and portable stoves has become an unintended hobby of mine. Need to make sure I have enough coal, propane and white gas to play with them all of the need arises. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 08, 2021, 04:13:52 PM
::rofl::

So deep, you could take a deuce in broad daylight in your neighbor's front yard and it wouldn't get discovered until April!   ::shrug::
  Sure am glad your back.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 04:15:00 PM
18z GFS brings the monster low up the wrong side of the Apps.  Rain for most, IP/ZR for NW TN and snow for the Ohio/Mississippi confluence.

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020818/132/zr_acc.us_ov.png)

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020818/132/snku_acc.us_ov.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 08, 2021, 04:18:59 PM
18z GFS brings the monster low up the wrong side of the Apps.  Rain for most, IP/ZR for NW TN and snow for the Ohio/Mississippi confluence.

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020818/132/zr_acc.us_ov.png)

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020818/132/snku_acc.us_ov.png)

Well so much for trends
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 08, 2021, 04:20:43 PM
18z GFS brings the monster low up the wrong side of the Apps.  Rain for most, IP/ZR for NW TN and snow for the Ohio/Mississippi confluence.

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020818/132/zr_acc.us_ov.png)

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020818/132/snku_acc.us_ov.png)

That half inch of ice looks nasty. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 08, 2021, 04:22:10 PM
18z GFS brings the monster low up the wrong side of the Apps.  Rain for most, IP/ZR for NW TN and snow for the Ohio/Mississippi confluence.



The 18z always disappoints.  Just don't look at it.  I don't. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 04:26:40 PM
The 18z always disappoints.  Just don't look at it.  I don't.

If I don't then I have to go an additional six hours without global numerical data.  It's a habit.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 08, 2021, 04:27:51 PM
Someone in the state will surely see a bout of freezing rain at some point.  It shifts west/east as the models try to figure out how far the shallow cold air goes.  The last run of the GFS it had it further south and east, so eastern areas got a mix, westward got snow.  This run has a weaker intrusion of cold air, so the ice has shifted westward (along with the snow).  I don't believe for a moment that any model has this figured out yet.  Heck, the models have been struggling with events the day before it happens.  So, there will many more shifts in this before all is said and done. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 08, 2021, 04:28:07 PM
Is the southeast ridge a result of the MJO. I have never seen that much cold air just to the north of Tennessee for 2 weeks and not eventually break down the ridge. It appears the ridge will not budge for the next 14 days. Unbelievable


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 08, 2021, 04:33:41 PM
If I don't then I have to go an additional six hours without global numerical data.  It's a habit.

Wishcasting is the most effective form of forecasting.  Trust me on this.  I present to you the foot plus of snow in Victoria, TX on Christmas Eve many years ago.  Somebody wished for that...and got it.  The 18z hurts your wishcast.   ::cliff::  Therefore, it's a bad habit!  Instead, focus on your giraffe meme.  It will lead you to 60 inches of bliss. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Susan on February 08, 2021, 05:03:23 PM
Quote
National Weather Service Nashville TN
259 PM CST Mon Feb 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...

The stratus deck has eroded nicely over the last 4 hours giving
the majority of the area a few hours of sun. Looking at obs, a
surface boundary is draped across our far northwest. This
boundary will be the focus of our forecast for the next few days.
Temperatures on Tuesday will have a decent spread from our south
to the north with the boundary. Along the Alabama border, we could
reach the mid to upper 50s while the northwest will struggle to
get into the mid 40s. A weak impulse in the zonal upper flow along
with isentropic lift along the front could kick off a few
scattered, light showers Tuesday and into Tuesday night with the
best chances along and north of I-40.

Scattered shower chances continue on Wednesday with the surface
boundary still draped over our area. Conditions look warm enough
through the first half of Thursday evening to keep all
precipitation as rain. Things begin to get tricky especially after
midnight Wednesday night. The boundary will begin to sag south
with precipitation continuing. The GFS and NAM slide below
freezing surface temperatures into the northwest after midnight
with 850 mb temperatures still 5C above 0 which will allow rain to
transition to freezing rain. The boundary will continue to sink
south during the morning on Thursday which could let freezing rain
get as far south as the Nashville metro area.

There is a lot of uncertainty to the southern extent of the
freezing rain on Thursday due to the spread in surface
temperatures between the Euro, NAM, GFS, and their ensemble
members. However, at this point, some ice accumulation in our far
northwest (Stewart, Montgomery, and Robertson counties) does seem
realistic. Hopefully, we can begin to nail down the southern
extent of ice accumulation and amounts in general over the next
few model runs.


The surface front will push through the entire area by Friday
morning allowing for a cool, dry day. Models diverge Saturday
into Sunday with a potential system in the northern Gulf. The GFS
is all in on strengthening the system as it lifts north while the
Euro fizzles it out. This will determine how much, if any,
precipitation we will see. One thing the models do agree on is
finally dropping the very cold air into our area. Parts of the
area may way up on Sunday with temperatures in the single digits.


&&
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on February 08, 2021, 05:06:47 PM
Pretty amazing temp gradient in Central US right now.. 13, Wichita KS; 22, Oklahoma City; 67, Dallas, Tx.. I think we'll see a similar crazy gradient in Tennessee this weekend.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 08, 2021, 05:45:50 PM
18Z GFS has once again punted the arctic air push out to day 10. It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on February 08, 2021, 05:53:59 PM
Still a glancing blow in Chattown, though most of its load is blown into Texas and Mexico. That's one fierce SE Ridge. In a day or two we will know if Winter is canceled here or not. At least there's that much. Or at least it's time to plug in the Feb-March 1960 analogs.... ::scratch::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: lyngo on February 08, 2021, 06:08:52 PM
18Z GFS has once again punted the arctic air push out to day 10. It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: lyngo on February 08, 2021, 06:11:18 PM
Still a glancing blow in Chattown, though most of its load is blown into Texas and Mexico. That's one fierce SE Ridge. In a day or two we will know if Winter is canceled here or not. At least there's that much. Or at least it's time to plug in the Feb-March 1960 analogs.... ::scratch::

The SE ridge has been overdone all this winter season.  It may be correct but as long as we can keep the -NAO, the SE will likely not be as strong as modeled come verification time.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Susan on February 08, 2021, 06:21:35 PM
18Z GFS has once again punted the arctic air push out to day 10. It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 08, 2021, 07:02:01 PM
Pretty amazing temp gradient in Central US right now.. 13, Wichita KS; 22, Oklahoma City; 67, Dallas, Tx.. I think we'll see a similar crazy gradient in Tennessee this weekend.

It will be here Wednesday.  My forecast high is 60 that day, while just a short drive north into KY, it will be in the 30's.  Would be cool to take that drive while watching the car thermometer.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on February 08, 2021, 07:24:46 PM
True.. this is one monster-sized PV.. SE Ridge trying to:  ::blowtorch:: though.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 08, 2021, 09:13:24 PM
Well looks like I have to drive to Columbus Ohio Sunday and work up there till Wednesday, then drive to Ashville finish and drive back to Nashville. Seems like I am going to likely deal with some **** weather. Hopefully snow but I am not so sure depending on how the ridge sets up. Then driving south into Ashville, just seems like no good. Anyways, some sort of frozen weather is going to tickle our little ears. I am glad to be around to have a chance at it. 19th I am back out West for 10 days. Maybe I can get anther Moderate Sierra storm. Hopefully they will then move along the southern side of these strong high pressures and give the southeast continued chances.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 08, 2021, 09:39:25 PM
I am pulling for you Icon!  Lead the way!   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 08, 2021, 10:01:46 PM
The 0Z ICON for 2/15... The EPS and the GEFS both have this storm with the GFS showing on 2/14.
(https://i.imgur.com/q068Sle.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/kgCKujE.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 08, 2021, 10:05:08 PM
The 0Z ICON for 2/15... The EPS and the GEFS both have this storm with the GFS showing on 2/14.
(https://i.imgur.com/q068Sle.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/kgCKujE.png)

Not sure how reliable this model is but if has a few waves on it. With the temps to follow it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 08, 2021, 10:06:00 PM
The 0Z ICON for 2/15... The EPS and the GEFS both have this storm with the GFS showing on 2/14.

Thats it, I'm checking the JMA.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2021, 10:22:13 PM
0z GFS is a statewide ice storm this weekend.  I still think it's a non-issue, at least until the Euro picks up the storm.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 08, 2021, 10:24:58 PM
I only want to see GOOD model runs in here.  If it's bad, throw it out your mind and certainly don't post it because that's NOT happening this time. I don't care if the only model you can post is the DGEX or whatever it might be nowdays... only good stuff. 

My peeps...what we need here is some belief.  We need to think ASS DEEP snow now! 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 08, 2021, 10:26:14 PM
0z GFS is a statewide ice storm this weekend.  I still think it's a non-issue, at least until the Euro picks up the storm.
Screw the Euro (it still owes me 30 inches from 2014, I think) and screw ice.  Take the GFS, double the QPF, and convert it all to snow. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 08, 2021, 10:27:54 PM
What is it going to take to weaken the southeast ridge. It seems to just be spinning like a top and not moving an inch


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 08, 2021, 10:30:19 PM
What is it going to take to weaken the southeast ridge. It seems to just be spinning like a top and not moving an inch


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
most likely till the La Ni
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 08, 2021, 10:33:24 PM
That will be when I want spring. Seems like this is the first time all winter it has been this strong


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Tamlin on February 08, 2021, 10:33:42 PM
GFS is coming in 1-4 degrees warmer for all locations mid-week. LZK to MEM corridor still sees warning level ice for Wed/Thurs but it doesn't penetrate down into MS as it was in previous runs - tapers off to BNA with probably advisory level ice. Weekend system doesn't seem to be nearly as robust for anyone as the low is about 100-150 miles further south.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 08, 2021, 10:33:44 PM
most likely till the La Ni
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 08, 2021, 10:37:59 PM
We have been extremely lucky in Johnson City this winter with almost 20 inches of snow but no real cold air to make it last long. I guess the La Ni
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 08, 2021, 10:38:06 PM
Bruce.... the last time we had a big winter in a La Nina year was when?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
2011 was a good one Mempho
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 08, 2021, 10:39:15 PM
Not sure how reliable this model is but if has a few waves on it. With the temps to follow it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 08, 2021, 10:41:12 PM
Bruce.... the last time we had a big winter in a La Nina year was when?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Let me help here. January 2018. January/February 2011. Not long ago at all. In fact, I think you and I determined that La Ni
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 08, 2021, 11:07:34 PM
So the GFS has been steady bringing Arctic air down now decides to retreat it? 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 09, 2021, 12:43:08 AM
There is Bruce's euro snow on the 16th. LOL! Bring it on!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 09, 2021, 12:50:19 AM
There is Bruce's euro snow on the 16th. LOL! Bring it on!
was just going post it. Nice hit snowman ⛄️
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 09, 2021, 03:26:46 AM
Let me help here. January 2018. January/February 2011. Not long ago at all. In fact, I think you and I determined that La Ni
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 09, 2021, 03:31:28 AM
So the GFS has been steady bringing Arctic air down now decides to retreat it?
You mean it only gets down to 0F at KMEM on the 15th?

Negative comment and not true, Matthew. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 09, 2021, 04:22:29 AM
WS Jonas Doppelganger on the Euro.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 09, 2021, 07:31:12 AM
Just pointing out the continued difficulty the models are having with the arctic air. The 00Z GEM has me at 6 degrees midnight Saturday, the 06Z GFS has me at 52.  ::)  ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 09, 2021, 08:23:44 AM
My family in Jersey have done well this year between 14-24 inches of snow across my home county this year.....all i ask is for one good event this season....one widespread 5-7 inch snow and i won't ask for anything else weather-wise this year :)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 09, 2021, 08:26:26 AM
Found this image from the 00Z EPS (Euro Ensemble Mean) pretty interesting....you can't visualize the battle between the arctic airmass and the SE ridge any better than that...just need a couple of waves to ride that boundary while we are on the cold side.

(https://i.ibb.co/7nyjKWG/850t-anom-conus.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 09, 2021, 08:36:57 AM
Found this image from the 00Z EPS (Euro Ensemble Mean) pretty interesting....you can't visualize the battle between the arctic airmass and the SE ridge any better than that...just need a couple of waves to ride that boundary while we are on the cold side.

(https://i.ibb.co/7nyjKWG/850t-anom-conus.png)

Yep if we can get a good wave to ride up through mobile towards atlanta i think we would be in good shape!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 09, 2021, 08:47:28 AM
 ::coffee::

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY7.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 09, 2021, 08:53:14 AM
::coffee::

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY7.gif)

Eric, one of these is gonna hit us.....the fact euro and gfs have something similar on 15th-16th gives me hope that this could be it :)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 09, 2021, 08:53:45 AM
::coffee::

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY7.gif)
pretty impressive this far out be honest .
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 09, 2021, 09:06:33 AM
pretty impressive this far out be honest .
Here's the updated image(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210209/ab257b4f2acd693ff4c266540178c5cf.gif)

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 09, 2021, 09:33:30 AM
12Z ICON with a new slug of FZRN for middle TN on Saturday morning. Temps are below freezing for most of middle TN on this frame. ICON does not use the pinks and reds so what's being depicted is likely sleet or freezing rain.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021020912/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_32.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021020912/icon_T2m_seus_33.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 09, 2021, 09:37:30 AM
12Z ICON with a new slug of FZRN for middle TN on Saturday morning. Temps are below freezing for most of middle TN on this frame. ICON does not use the pinks and reds so what's being depicted is likely sleet or freezing rain.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021020912/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_32.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021020912/icon_T2m_seus_33.png)

From what I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 09, 2021, 09:40:49 AM
Don't hit me, Ice Man.  Please target those who want it bad.

(https://i.pinimg.com/736x/ef/a3/81/efa381a75a14874f4b411ccb74cecc02.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 09, 2021, 09:51:53 AM
pretty impressive this far out be honest .
                                           
to
^  be honest .
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 09, 2021, 10:05:37 AM
poor Bruce, sometimes I think people live to point out typos lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 09, 2021, 10:06:57 AM
12z GFS still gives up some snow but not nearly the phased look of previous iterations.  Looks like a light event with a few inches west of the Plateau.   

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_19.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_20.png)

Looks like the Plateau gets shut out this go 'round.  And what do we have here?  A low of 2F at BNA Sun/Mon. 

 :o :o :o
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 09, 2021, 10:30:05 AM
12z GFS still gives up some snow but not nearly the phased look of previous iterations.  Looks like a light event with a few inches west of the Plateau.   

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_19.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_20.png)

Looks like the Plateau gets shut out this go 'round.  And what do we have here?  A low of 2F at BNA Sun/Mon. 

 :o :o :o
yeah. Just ever so close ... still in the park for a big dog
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 09, 2021, 10:45:48 AM
All globals right now are showing a more active pattern between roughly 100-200 hours, sending different waves up the boundary. No single one to really nail down just yet, but one can see the opportunity during this time frame starting to come into focus as these waves send wintry precip either at us or near us.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 09, 2021, 01:11:25 PM
To help some understand the model madness and why you shoudn't live and die by each model run...

Lets compare todays Euro with what previous runs showed for the same time...

12z Euro from today at 48 hours for 2/11 has BNA at 33 degrees
12z Euro from 2 days ago at 96 hours for 2/11 has BNA at 39 degrees
12z Euro from 3 days ago at 120 hours for 2/11 has BNA at 52 degrees
00z Euro from 5.5 days ago at 180 hours for 2/11 has BNA at 20 degrees


Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 09, 2021, 01:15:07 PM
To help some understand the model madness and why you shoudn't live and die by each model run...

Lets compare todays Euro with what previous runs showed for the same time...

12z Euro from today at 48 hours for 2/7 has BNA at 33 degrees
12z Euro from 2 days ago at 96 hours for 2/7 has BNA at 39 degrees
12z Euro from 3 days ago at 120 hours for 2/7 has BNA at 52 degrees
00z Euro from 5.5 days ago at 180 hours for 2/7 has BNA at 20 degrees

Did you mean 2/11?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 09, 2021, 01:15:47 PM
And yet, we still do not have a viable solution for the weekend.  The 12z GFS and 12z Euro couldn't be any more different.  If trends are an indication, though, the GFS is trending towards the Euro with regards to storm potential.  They're baby steps, but steps nonetheless.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 09, 2021, 01:19:34 PM
Did you mean 2/11?

Yes, I guess the attic air froze my paster.

Thanks, edited it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 09, 2021, 01:22:23 PM
And yet, we still do not have a viable solution for the weekend.  The 12z GFS and 12z Euro couldn't be any more different.  If trends are an indication, though, the GFS is trending towards the Euro with regards to storm potential.  They're baby steps, but steps nonetheless.

Yep. GFS and Euro looking for The Weeknd storm...

(https://media.giphy.com/media/Ta3v3I4GI1gH7Rqek6/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 09, 2021, 01:22:29 PM
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/nashville/t2m_f/1612872000/1613304000-BL61DyA8iKo.png)

(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nashville/t2m_f/1612872000/1613304000-Aa6ZCB58Mwg.png)


(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/nashville/t2m_f/1612872000/1613304000-kLLCt54pNG8.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 09, 2021, 01:24:31 PM
(https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/nashville/t2m_f/1612872000/1613304000-BL61DyA8iKo.png)

Got to love the effect of Lake Barkley and Ky Lake. See it pretty often in downstream temps after a cold front. No idea if its actually noticeable in the obs.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 09, 2021, 01:25:33 PM
So the GFS has been steady bringing Arctic air down now decides to retreat it?

Shhh..
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 09, 2021, 01:26:15 PM
Really would like to see how the GFS16 would handle this...if they can ever get it back online. Good grief.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 09, 2021, 01:28:54 PM
Active pattern with a chance each run we see on the global models. Pour a drink or light one up, its going to get testy over the next 2 weeks.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 09, 2021, 01:38:40 PM
Don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 09, 2021, 02:21:48 PM
Don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 09, 2021, 02:58:11 PM
BAMWX posted a video today, part of which is dedicated to tropical forcing and where the MJO may be headed.  The discussion takes place between 7:45 and about 9:00 minutes. 

https://t.co/CHVZMzxegS?amp=1
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 09, 2021, 02:59:38 PM
Huge contrast in temps west to east in TN this afternoon.  Near freezing at the Mississippi River, and near 60 against the Smokies. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 09, 2021, 03:10:44 PM
The signal for a potential storm looks best in the GEFS by Monday morning. The weekend looks like furries maybe this far west but that
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 09, 2021, 03:36:25 PM
Looks like GFSv16 is back up and running:

(https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021020912/174/snku_acc.us_ov.png)

(https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021020912/156/prateptype_cat.us_ov.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 09, 2021, 03:42:26 PM
Looks like GFSv16 is back up and running:

Looks drunk. Send it back home.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 09, 2021, 03:44:48 PM
Looks like GFSv16 is back up and running:

(https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021020912/174/snku_acc.us_ov.png)

(https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021020912/156/prateptype_cat.us_ov.png)

Looks a lot like the 12z euro
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 09, 2021, 03:45:57 PM
GFS16 is interesting, not far off from the Euro storm yesterday which it had today but back it up west a little. Difference in freezing 850's at Paducah or Chattanooga.

Signal is there for Mon/Tues, as Curt and others have alluded to, that is all we know right now.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 09, 2021, 03:47:54 PM
GFS16 is interesting, not far off from the Euro storm yesterday which it had today but back it up west a little. Difference in freezing 850's at Paducah or Chattanooga.

Signal is there for Mon/Tues, as Curt and others have alluded to, that is all we know right now.

GFS and euro have pointed to that one for about 36 hours now, i am a little intrigued but thats about it until friday gets here , if it is still there then, i will start to bite lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 09, 2021, 03:49:58 PM
All kinds of stuff going on. The ICON has some minor frozen precip on Saturday for middle and even a big chunk of east TN. The RGEM looked like it was heading for the same thing at the end of its run as well. Ain't this fun! Off to baseball practice for me.  ;D
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 09, 2021, 06:22:58 PM
Looks like GFSv16 is back up and running:

(https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021020912/174/snku_acc.us_ov.png)

(https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021020912/156/prateptype_cat.us_ov.png)

Heavy snow in the central valley of east TN, and less on the Plateau?  Needs a geography lesson. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 09, 2021, 07:54:57 PM
FWIW monday ohx has a lot of counties with 50% snow chance :)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 09, 2021, 09:31:24 PM
FWIW monday ohx has a lot of counties with 50% snow chance :)
That would be wonderful as long as we still have electricity!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 09, 2021, 09:54:10 PM
The 18Z GEFS Snow Mean through hour 225. ::faint::

(https://i.imgur.com/DJMS5mz.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 09, 2021, 10:23:05 PM
I find it interesting that the pacific NW coastal cities are seeing a prolonged major winter storm starting tomorrow through the weekend, while we also have some potential in middle and west TN. Typically when the PNW gets low elevation snow we are torching. Very odd pattern. Of course I guess East TN is torching. 65 here tomorrow. And the GFS has now removed all Arctic air from the entire run. Lowest temp here in the next 7 days is only 29.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 09, 2021, 10:23:28 PM
00z GFS16 bringing the goods for the Mon/Tues storm. 7" for BNA, while the regular GFS is a sleet fest as 850s are a little warm.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 09, 2021, 10:23:39 PM
0z icon & 0z GFS coming in with the snow next week

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 09, 2021, 10:25:33 PM
The 00Z GFS smashes most of the state Monday night with big mixed bag storm. This one seems to be pretty steady across the models.  ::fingerscrossed::

Kind of fun tracking two at once!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 10, 2021, 12:37:57 AM
0z euro brings a bowling ball closed low out of the 4 corners region then takes the surface low from the gulf coast through central and northeast MS into central TN. Looks more icy than snow at this point but at least it's something(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210210/5f4e55ce093efd4fdf849372a5a4bc30.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210210/4e71201fd1b20de2aecf7cbf0df6cd65.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210210/b82246ce8bb668473d32b5c72deb4239.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210210/4c6f48f09fbb6127fb3b49f1f571377d.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210210/755194b9093171c690d031fd23200773.jpg)

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 10, 2021, 04:56:07 AM
0z euro brings a bowling ball closed low out of the 4 corners region then takes the surface low from the gulf coast through central and northeast MS into central TN. Looks more icy than snow at this point but at least it's something
06Z GFS has a very similar track although it really blows up the storm into a monster. Pummels west TN, but gets so cranked up it brings a massive warm sector to much of our eastern half.  ::bangingheadintowall:: ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 10, 2021, 05:28:01 AM
 GFS totals for Monday/Tuesday.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 10, 2021, 05:34:05 AM
GFS totals for Monday/Tuesday.

(Attachment Link)

Making up for the '93 Superstorm I guess
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 10, 2021, 05:40:54 AM
This whole pattern is weird. There will either be a huge storm or major bust. I have seen arctic air not cross the mountains of East Tennessee for a couple days but never 2 weeks. It almost gets through the whole state then moves back west. Some major blocking going on that won
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 10, 2021, 06:01:11 AM
GFS totals for Monday/Tuesday.

(Attachment Link)

As often as they get left out I certainly don't begrudge west TN, especially southwest, getting a truly big snowstorm. But if it plays out like that with snow from the TX and LA gulf coast all the way the up the Mississippi after we sit in the freezer in middle TN all weekend just to warm up enough for rain....oh the weeping and gnashing of teeth. Hopefully we get a better angle on the storm to get more of the state involved like this:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021021000/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_49.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 06:11:21 AM
As often as they get left out I certainly don't begrudge west TN, especially southwest, getting a truly big snowstorm. But if it plays out like that with snow from the TX and LA gulf coast all the way the up the Mississippi after sitting in the freezer all weekend just to warm up enough for rain in middle TN....oh the weeping and gnashing of teeth. Hopefully we get a better angle on the storm to get more of the state involved like this:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021021000/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_49.png)
wow. Can u say waa going be some big winners big losers on this one
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 10, 2021, 06:46:19 AM
GFS totals for Monday/Tuesday.

(Attachment Link)
Lock it up!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 06:51:36 AM
06Z GFS has a very similar track although it really blows up the storm into a monster. Pummels west TN, but gets so cranked up it brings a massive warm sector to much of our eastern half.  ::bangingheadintowall:: ::coffee::

Euro and GFS ensemble means both show the 850 warm nose for middle and east TN. That is my concern with this system. We may be looking at sleet or freezing rain instead of a good snow.

GFS16/CMC/UKIE/ICON are more robust with the cold push and keep middleTN all snow.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 10, 2021, 06:51:59 AM
It seems to me the trends keep suggesting the Southeast Ridge keeps getting stronger which is pushing every track further west. Hope I am wrong for you guys but East Tennessee now never drops below 45 for a high in the extended when it was going to get somewhat colder by Sunday just a couple days ago. Just a weird setup for 2 weeks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 10, 2021, 07:04:58 AM
GFS totals for Monday/Tuesday.

(Attachment Link)
Just went back and looked at this data but I'm no expert but this looks maybe underdone due to potentially higher ratios.  There is a slight warm nose that appears to max at 0.3C above freezing but that looks quite temporary and borderline.  What we don't really know is what tree temps look like in the dendrite growth zone but it's quite possible this would stay all SN and I have doubts as to whether it would melt even if the column had just a brief spot that was barely above freezing.  I could see this going at 15:1 or so.

Once again, using my formula of doubling the QPF and let's just go with 20:1 max ratios and we're looking at about 49" for the airport with pockets of 60" in Shelby County.

That's FIVE FEET DEEP!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 10, 2021, 07:37:32 AM
The mempho method
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 10, 2021, 07:42:45 AM
The mempho method
Believe in the method

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 10, 2021, 07:50:39 AM
But if it plays out like that with snow from the TX and LA gulf coast all the way the up the Mississippi after we sit in the freezer in middle TN all weekend just to warm up enough for rain....oh the weeping and gnashing of teeth.

I'd be looking to start a fight if we wake up to 14 degrees Monday morning and then warm above freezing by nightfall only for a cold rain to fall.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 10, 2021, 08:01:29 AM
GFS totals for Monday/Tuesday.

(Attachment Link)
Almost looks like a giant middle finger, doesn't it?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 08:11:21 AM
MEG already going with 50 percent snow ⛄️ Monday already
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 10, 2021, 08:27:01 AM
MEG already going with 50 percent snow ⛄️ Monday already
ohx did same for my county as well :) would be nice
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 10, 2021, 08:34:41 AM
Per Huntsville NWS for Monday/tuesday :

For once, we do have cold air in place, so for those winter
lovers out there, some snow is certainly possible. In fact, several
EC/GFS ensemble members do indicate snow for the the Tennessee
Valley
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 08:42:12 AM
Per Huntsville NWS for Monday/tuesday :

For once, we do have cold air in place, so for those winter
lovers out there, some snow is certainly possible. In fact, several
EC/GFS ensemble members do indicate snow for the the Tennessee
Valley

Interesting they feel confident that cold air will be in place after looking at Euro/GFS ensemble mean, because 850's are pretty warm around Huntsville.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 10, 2021, 08:44:46 AM
Interesting they feel confident that cold air will be in place after looking at Euro/GFS ensemble mean, because 850's are pretty warm around Huntsville.

It has to give at some point doesn't it , i mean the air has to make it in here sometime this week.....i noticed wkrn has highs only around 28 on monday so sounds like they assume the same thing
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 08:47:37 AM
It has to give at some point doesn't it , i mean the air has to make it in here sometime this week.....i noticed wkrn has highs only around 28 on monday so sounds like they assume the same thing
not seeing a lot modification on surface temps next week . Perfect snow making weather coming
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 10, 2021, 08:49:42 AM
not seeing a lot modification on surface temps next week . Perfect snow making weather coming

i am SO close to biting on this one bruce, pattern looks great all models showing something for that date.....this "could" be the one
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 10, 2021, 08:53:36 AM
One system at a time. However I would say we should be talking about the weekend threat at this point. We can look at the models at the surface all we want. The 500mb pattern is prime for a overrunning event. Where 850mb temps fall is a major question. Track of this as well which if suppressed a little further SE would yield better for the Middle TN. I think this one splits the state in half. West TN having the best chance to be on the SN side of things.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 08:57:11 AM
It has to give at some point doesn't it , i mean the air has to make it in here sometime this week.....i noticed wkrn has highs only around 28 on monday so sounds like they assume the same thing

Surface temps have never been the issue with this system for middleTN and folks west. It's always been the 850's.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 10, 2021, 08:58:08 AM
Surface temps have never been the issue with this system for middleTN and folks west. It's always been the 850's.

I could see it being more IP than ZR at this time but I would be silly to even try and guess at this point.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 10, 2021, 08:59:03 AM
One system at a time. However I would say we should be talking about the weekend threat at this point. We can look at the models at the surface all we want. The 500mb pattern is prime for a overrunning event. Where 850mb temps fall is a major question. Track of this as well which if suppressed a little further SE would yield better for the Middle TN. I think this one splits the state in half. West TN having the best chance to be on the SN side of things.

What you thinking? West of 65 looks to be the best bet "as of now"
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 10, 2021, 09:05:02 AM
not seeing a lot modification on surface temps next week . Perfect snow making weather coming

Bruce is on the winter train!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 09:05:12 AM
I could see it being more IP than ZR at this time but I would be silly to even try and guess at this point.

After last nights Euro run, hard to say. If it wraps up into a stronger storm its going to through up some pretty good warm air advection into our area. One of either the GFS or Euro actually got us above freezing at the surface during the storm. Was surprised to see that.

But, as you say, still a good ways out (over 120 hours) so we'll wait and watch as it gets closer.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 10, 2021, 09:08:47 AM
What you thinking? West of 65 looks to be the best bet "as of now"

At this point absolutely. It also depend on what airmass its running into. The start could be frz with a transition to RN for area along I-65. My last thread was successful for many East of Nashville. I think we should hold off until Thursday or Friday. Keep the discussion moving in this thread until we are ready for more of a serious thread with less banter and more talk about the particular model data and surface obs. I think we have been able to keep these threads overall clean. We as a group have stepped it up over the last couple storms. Lets keep the positive energy flowing.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 09:11:27 AM
This is what I'm talking about with 850's. Left is GEFS at 144, Right is EPS at 144. Again, too far out at this point to think this won't change, but right now 850's are going to be a struggle with the Mon/Tue system for Middle TN.

(https://i.ibb.co/rtS73m9/GFSEvs-EPS-2-10-21-144.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 09:13:16 AM
I got her riding up the spine of the apps . Book it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 09:15:57 AM
I got her riding up the spine of the apps . Book it

We talked about this back in 2016 with the big snow for Nashville. It's either going left/right of the Apps or it goes right with a handoff. I think 2016 was a handoff.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: lyngo on February 10, 2021, 09:33:07 AM
This is what I'm talking about with 850's. Left is GEFS at 144, Right is EPS at 144. Again, too far out at this point to think this won't change, but right now 850's are going to be a struggle with the Mon/Tue system for Middle TN.

(https://i.ibb.co/rtS73m9/GFSEvs-EPS-2-10-21-144.jpg)

Either of those could possibly end up being correct but the seasonal trend has been for storms to correct south as we get closer to verification time.  If we didn't have the -NAO this year, then I would probably go ahead and write this storm off but it's consistently beat back the SE ridge and it's often that we don't see this correction until we get 2 to 3 days from an event.  Combine this with a tweet a couple days ago from Anthony Masiello saying that the TPV should correct eastward and hopefully that further south and east track will indeed pan out.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 10:09:17 AM
12z GFS warms 850's even more for BNA. 20 degrees at the surface, 925s below freezing and 850's around 5 degrees C. Heavy sleet storm verbatim.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 10, 2021, 10:11:13 AM
12z GFS warms 850's even more for BNA. 20 degrees at the surface, 925s below freezing and 850's around 5 degrees C. Heavy sleet storm verbatim.

Looks a little colder at the surface though, at least along 65:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021021012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_23.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 10, 2021, 10:12:46 AM
12z GFS...

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021012/135/prateptype_cat.us_ov.png)

Clarksville is at 18F with sleet.  That's wild AF.  Plateau gets shut out, save for some token freezing rain.

ZR...

(https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021012/144/zr_acc.us_ov.png)

MS/OH River confluence gets blasted.  Congrats Paducah ---> 21.4".
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 10, 2021, 10:15:03 AM
My Snow total was 18 inches if i cut that in half that's still 9 inches.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 10:17:05 AM
Looks a little colder at the surface though, at least along 65:

GFS16 has a weak low riding the panhandle, and all snow across middleTN, with 6" of snow from Mem to BNA. LOL

Now we'll see what the Euro has.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 10, 2021, 10:22:57 AM
GFS16 has a weak low riding the panhandle, and all snow across middleTN, with 6" of snow from Mem to BNA. LOL

Now we'll see what the Euro has.
Much better angle on it:
(https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021021012/132/prateptype_cat.us_ov.png)

(https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021021012/150/sn10_acc.us_ov.png)

(https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021021012/150/zr_acc.us_ov.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 10, 2021, 10:23:18 AM
GFS16 has a weak low riding the panhandle, and all snow across middleTN, with 6" of snow from Mem to BNA. LOL

Now we'll see what the Euro has.

Sunny and 50F.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 10:28:43 AM
Sunny and 50F.

The Euro has modeled an amped storm like the GFS, the last couple runs. This is about the time the Euro would come back to reality in the past and come off the amped solution, if it is going to. So far you've had GFS/Euro vs GFS16/Ukie/CMC.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 10, 2021, 10:35:39 AM
Just for viewing pleasure. GFS next 9 days.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 10, 2021, 10:40:47 AM
Canadian looking good:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021021012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_22.png)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 10, 2021, 10:41:03 AM
Just for viewing pleasure. GFS next 9 days.


(Attachment Link)

Part of that is a technical glitch where any accumulating snowfall beyond 300+ hours on Tidbits is mapped immediately as 4" or more. It needs to be fixed.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: justinmundie on February 10, 2021, 10:42:09 AM
Just for viewing pleasure. GFS next 9 days.


(Attachment Link)

Memphis is going to be laid to waste. Ice storm sleet storm then snow storm with absurd cold.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 10:46:04 AM
Just for viewing pleasure. GFS next 9 days.

First storm for BNA is basically and inch of QPF as sleet. Then the second storm is 15" of snow.

Ironically, the first storm on the GFS looks like the second storm on the GFS16 and the second storm on the GFS looks like the first storm on the GFS16.

Goodness.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 10, 2021, 11:33:03 AM
First storm for BNA is basically and inch of QPF as sleet. Then the second storm is 15" of snow.

Ironically, the first storm on the GFS looks like the second storm on the GFS16 and the second storm on the GFS looks like the first storm on the GFS16.

Goodness.

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/f914a33a0ad6ca302f73a9c2e7bb601e/tenor.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 10, 2021, 12:03:44 PM
Meanwhile it's spring in east TN.  Skies have cleared thanks to downsloping, and it's 63 in the early afternoon.  I'll take it and like over the icy alternative. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 12:35:42 PM
12z Euro is a sleet to freezing rain for the Mon/Tues. Not liking trends here. Even the Ukie is starting to trend toward the Euro solution.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 10, 2021, 12:43:42 PM
Hoping trends to more towards snow.  Seems we in mid TN have seen this play out many times.  Cold rain. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 10, 2021, 12:46:32 PM
12z Euro is a sleet to freezing rain for the Mon/Tues. Not liking trends here. Even the Ukie is starting to trend toward the Euro solution.
Not too worried about the Ukie & Euro. Same thing happened with this ice storm around the same time out. They were too warm & brought the frontal boundary into KY. Im liking the GFS16 & canadian right now

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 12:47:52 PM
12z Euro is a sleet to freezing rain for the Mon/Tues. Not liking trends here. Even the Ukie is starting to trend toward the Euro solution.
12z euro did have slight colder 2m temps . But more of pronounced warm noise mid levels
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 10, 2021, 01:00:03 PM
Just for viewing pleasure. GFS next 9 days.


(Attachment Link)

That's at 10:1.  Double the QPF and bring those ratios to 20:1.  That's 88 inches....or a heckuva lot more than FIVE FEET DEEP!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: wfrogge on February 10, 2021, 01:17:36 PM
Next week I have a good shot of chasing tornadoes to our south then driving back home in snow
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 10, 2021, 01:23:25 PM
WPC has west TN in a 30-50% for .25 liquid equivalent of snow/sleet for next Tuesday(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210210/a5faa6a9aa0073389be3931cc021afd8.jpg)

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 02:19:39 PM
Any model that runs a decent low north out of the gulf, shows no resistance to 850's just immediately folding like the French army. A weak low riding the gulf is about our only hope it looks. If it wraps up into anything and moves north we are toast.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 10, 2021, 02:26:19 PM
Any model that runs a decent low north out of the gulf, shows no resistance to 850's just immediately folding like the French army. A weak low riding the gulf is about our only hope it looks. If it wraps up into anything and moves north we are toast.

Well I flipped the bird at winter.  Now it says enjoy your cold rain at 33.  Lol.  Well Davidson and Wilson and Rutherford snow dome is holding strong.  Almost 70 here today.  Gorgeous. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 02:29:17 PM
Any model that runs a decent low north out of the gulf, shows no resistance to 850's just immediately folding like the French army. A weak low riding the gulf is about our only hope it looks. If it wraps up into anything and moves north we are toast.
believe it still can wrap up and head towards Georgia we be fine dog . Anything further west were screwed
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 10, 2021, 04:23:53 PM
wkrn has updated forecast to snow likely for monday ...hmmmm. If all layers are cold that day, it would be a really good 3+ snow for most

channel 5 wtvf as well
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 10, 2021, 04:25:59 PM
Gorgeous day today. 72 IMBY.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 10, 2021, 04:45:32 PM
I will continue to believe right along with mempho on Mon-Tues storm. ::guitar:: ::cold::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 05:17:53 PM
I will continue to believe right along with mempho on Mon-Tues storm. ::guitar:: ::cold::  ::snowman::
all 3 weather offices klzk meg kpah already mention threat of accumulating snowfall early next week.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 05:40:22 PM
18z gfs just simply plasters the whole mid south heavy snow n some sleet thrown in
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on February 10, 2021, 05:41:58 PM
Heater off for one day at least.. Also, I got bit by a mosquito.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 10, 2021, 05:42:47 PM
If happy hour happens I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 10, 2021, 05:44:18 PM
It's pretty amazing and rare to see this much of a temperature contrast in one CWA of the NWS.
From OHX:

Quote
With the surface boundary parked over the area for a third day,
the large temperature spread continues across the area. The
northern tip of Stewart Counties has been stuck in the mid 30s all
day. Meanwhile, Pulaski is currently sitting in the low 70s!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Heath22 on February 10, 2021, 05:47:05 PM
According to the Weather channel, only the same areas getting ice today and tomorrow will get snow Monday and buttloads of it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 10, 2021, 06:01:00 PM
According to the Weather channel, only the same areas getting ice today and tomorrow will get snow Monday and buttloads of it.

If the ice storm happens as some models have shown, I'm not sure if that's a good thing. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 10, 2021, 06:06:28 PM
According to the Weather channel, only the same areas getting ice today and tomorrow will get snow Monday and buttloads of it.

Looks like we are just the cold rain capital of America.  Hard to not get frustrated.  If this happens which I expect it to.  I hope winter disappears for good.  Give me my 70 degrees all winter. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 10, 2021, 06:26:27 PM
And my work has me driving to Florida Sunday, then to Ashville Tuesday night. If I miss this I will flip out. That is all. Looking like we are going to get a good system next week.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: lyngo on February 10, 2021, 06:38:22 PM
Looks like we are just the cold rain capital of America.  Hard to not get frustrated.  If this happens which I expect it to.  I hope winter disappears for good.  Give me my 70 degrees all winter.

Waaay to far out to make that statement just yet.  Too many factors fighting for dominance right now.  I believe the mid-state sees wintry precip.  How much depends on model trends over the next couple days.  This winter, we
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 10, 2021, 06:40:20 PM
Well my NWS forecast has 1-3
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: lyngo on February 10, 2021, 06:43:15 PM
Well my NWS forecast has 1-3
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 06:47:19 PM
At this point, it ain
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 10, 2021, 06:50:51 PM
The next major system does appear to be an actual storm with a stronger LP, and less of an overrunning situation.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: lyngo on February 10, 2021, 06:51:20 PM
from everything i have been looking at and hearing, really think we have great shot of someone on this  board getting double digit accumulations early next week. what amped up system

True.  I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 10, 2021, 08:03:24 PM
from everything i have been looking at and hearing, really think we have great shot of someone on this  board getting double digit accumulations early next week. what amped up system

Not hardly.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: lyngo on February 10, 2021, 08:33:31 PM
Not hardly.

Not sure what you meant...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 10, 2021, 08:34:32 PM
Not sure what you meant...

Sorry....I quoted the wrong post.  My bad!   ::bagoverhead:: ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: lyngo on February 10, 2021, 08:45:06 PM
Sorry....I quoted the wrong post.  My bad!   ::bagoverhead:: ::bagoverhead::

No worries.. ;D
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 10, 2021, 09:41:55 PM
Total snowfall so far this winter season.

Hopefully we get a big storm to patch in that unsightly hole. Dallas, Little Rock, Memphis, Nashville and Louisville are all seeking to rectify their deficits.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 10, 2021, 09:46:23 PM
Total snowfall so far this winter season.

Hopefully we get a big storm to patch in that unsightly hole. Dallas, Little Rock, Memphis, Nashville and Louisville are all seeking to rectify their deficits.

(Attachment Link)
We're going to make up for 30 years of this all at once.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 10, 2021, 09:55:32 PM
We're going to make up for 30 years of this all at once.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Don't lose your mind, now, Mempho.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 10, 2021, 09:56:41 PM
Don't lose your mind, now, Mempho.
I do not fear high expectations... I feed on them.

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 09:58:07 PM
We're going to make up for 30 years of this all at once.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
go big or go home . Like they say down at the gym
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 10, 2021, 09:59:18 PM
go big or go home . Like they say down at the gym

Hope we're ready for another dusting!!!  ;D
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 10:09:28 PM
00z GFS says, how would you like 0.7" QPF with surface temps at 19 degrees?

Ohh man, thats like 10" of high ratio snow...

wrrrrrrong....

that's all sleet....enjoy   ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 10, 2021, 10:12:14 PM
00z GFS says, how would you like 0.7" QPF with surface temps at 19 degrees?

Ohh man, thats like 10" of high ratio snow...

wrrrrrrong....

that's all sleet....enjoy   ::bagoverhead::

That
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 10:13:08 PM
00z GFS says, how would you like 0.7" QPF with surface temps at 19 degrees?

Ohh man, thats like 10" of high ratio snow...

wrrrrrrong....

that's all sleet....enjoy   ::bagoverhead::
signal is major winter storm unfolding . Sure we will get plenty different solutions next couple days
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 10, 2021, 10:14:53 PM
00z GFS says, how would you like 0.7" QPF with surface temps at 19 degrees?

Ohh man, thats like 10" of high ratio snow...

wrrrrrrong....

that's all sleet....enjoy   ::bagoverhead::

Look- that's a very good signal...we'll work on the melting layer later.  Okay...be positive.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 10, 2021, 10:17:07 PM
That 0z GFS scares the ::poo:: outta me.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 10, 2021, 10:18:32 PM
That 0z GFS scares the ::poo:: outta me.
why?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 10, 2021, 10:18:35 PM
That 0z GFS scares the ::poo:: outta me.

Glad I changed insurance company that replaces whole roof with damage.  That much sleet would do it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Sbeagles on February 10, 2021, 10:18:48 PM
I mean that would make thinks a bit slippery for a week or two.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 10:19:04 PM
I think the GFS16 went belly up again at 90 hours...right before the good stuff. Dang. Like the old days on dial up.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 10, 2021, 10:20:24 PM
why?

Because we live in Middle Tennessee and it would be an awful sleetstorm like 2015.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 10:21:13 PM
Those 850's on the GFS just arent budging man. It is an unreal battle between the SER and the arctic cold to our  NW.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 10, 2021, 10:24:28 PM
Winter really hates mid TN.  Actually Spring does to.  WTH!  Who
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 10:29:08 PM
Aaaaand storm 2 is a 33 degree rain. Lovely.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 10:31:12 PM
I'm not buying rain with the second storm. Not with that low placement and cold air just to our NW.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Sbeagles on February 10, 2021, 10:33:39 PM
I'm not buying rain with the second storm. Not with that low placement and cold air just to our NW.
I was thinking the same. Looks odd.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 10, 2021, 10:36:44 PM
I was thinking the same. Looks odd.

Yeah, low is near Auburn, AL and it just sort of circles around for hours. Very weird.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 10, 2021, 10:40:33 PM
Yeah, low is near Auburn, AL and it just sort of circles around for hours. Very weird.

Well at least opportunity. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 11, 2021, 12:36:48 AM
the ukie tonight was a big hit for west and some middle tennessee... 7 to 10 inches.  euro not quite as good as last run ::coffee::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 11, 2021, 01:07:39 AM
the ukie tonight was a big hit for west and some middle tennessee... 7 to 10 inches.  euro not quite as good as last run ::coffee::
Euro had 2 different waves of snow. It has the same ideal as GFS.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Charles L. on February 11, 2021, 04:06:16 AM
6z GFS is still game on for the Sunday-Tuesday system. Wild to look at it and see winter weather falling with temps in the teens!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 11, 2021, 05:39:39 AM
06 GFS and ICON both look slightly colder for Monday. This pushes frozen farther East. I don't think we are going to have a good handle on the rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow line for awhile.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 11, 2021, 05:43:45 AM
06 GFS and ICON both look slightly colder for Monday. This pushes frozen farther East. I don't think we are going to have a good handle on the rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow line for awhile.
dont think temps going be problem with this storm . Problem may lay were does the warm nose set up at...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Charles L. on February 11, 2021, 06:09:54 AM
dont think temps going be problem with this storm . Problem may lay were does the warm nose set up at...

I agree. It looks like we are going to have plenty of cold air in place at the surface.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 11, 2021, 06:23:21 AM
I don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 10:24:38 AM
Storm 2 on GFS coming in colder. Memphis looks very interesting.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 11, 2021, 10:25:50 AM
Storm 2 on GFS coming in colder. Memphis looks very interesting.

It needs to.  I get rain.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 10:27:01 AM
12z CMC showing the weekend moisture. 0.2" for BNA, freezing rain. Something to keep an eye on, most models have just recently picked this up.

With surface temps 25-30, it won't take much to cause problems.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on February 11, 2021, 10:31:08 AM
12z CMC showing the weekend moisture. 0.2" for BNA, freezing rain. Something to keep an eye on, most models have just recently picked this up.

With surface temps 25-30, it won't take much to cause problems.
Yeah GFS had this idea now too. Need to watch this for a sneaky minor icing event. If it adds to anything else leftover from today....and with much colder temperatures road issues would be a much much greater hazard.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: BALLPARK on February 11, 2021, 10:38:39 AM
Storm 2 on GFS 12Z last for 48hrs in my area. Its kind of reminding me of 77--78 winter except occurring in February.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 10:42:44 AM
GFS16 looks a lot like the Euro on storm 2, which would be a cutter, all rain for everyone.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 11, 2021, 10:49:31 AM
GFS16 looks a lot like the Euro on storm 2, which would be a cutter, all rain for everyone.
Except in the west

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 10:57:25 AM
Except in the west

By west you mean NW Arkansas. Snow line back up in St Louis on this one, atleast on the GFS16. Euro isn't quite as warm, but after starting frozen for our western area it goes all rain for anyone in our footprint.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 11, 2021, 11:00:22 AM
By west you mean NW Arkansas. Snow line back up in St Louis on this one, atleast on the GFS16. Euro isn't quite as warm, but after starting frozen for our western area it goes all rain for anyone in our footprint.
I was looking at storm 1 thinking the ongoing stuff was storm 1 and Monday/Tuesday was storm 2. Too many to keep up is a good thing

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 11, 2021, 11:13:01 AM
I was looking at storm 1 thinking the ongoing stuff was storm 1 and Monday/Tuesday was storm 2. Too many to keep up is a good thing

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Current we'll call Storm 0.  ;D

By the way, there's sort of a Storm 0.5, with a possible light icing event Friday night and Saturday morning in some areas.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 11, 2021, 11:22:03 AM
Current we'll call Storm 0.  ;D

By the way, there's sort of a Storm 0.5, with a possible light icing event Friday night and Saturday morning in some areas.

Which could be a much bigger deal if areas that got ice today get more Friday as some of us are at the verge of trees starting to come down. Worth watching, even if its minor.  Another .1 of ice could be a problem.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 11, 2021, 11:24:11 AM
GFS16 looks a lot like the Euro on storm 2, which would be a cutter, all rain for everyone.
Might want to check the EPS / GEFS on the Tues/Wed time frame as it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 11, 2021, 11:26:45 AM
12z Ukie seems to have a large area of sleet/snow on Monday/Monday night. Warm nose around 850mb(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210211/d9f214665f4def8981d21fd92e7ce600.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 11, 2021, 11:45:40 AM
12z Ukie seems to have a large area of sleet/snow on Monday/Monday night. Warm nose around 850mb(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210211/d9f214665f4def8981d21fd92e7ce600.jpg)

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That is last nights 0Z UKMet...12Z does look similar though.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 11, 2021, 11:47:35 AM
That is last nights 0Z UKMet...12Z does look similar though.
Man I am losing my mind this morning lol. I need sleep

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 11, 2021, 11:49:22 AM
Man I am losing my mind this morning lol. I need sleep

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12z ukmet(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210211/f698ad58ec93efc4aa1c69e3315c9867.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on February 11, 2021, 11:50:18 AM
Man I am losing my mind this morning lol. I need sleep

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Running on about 3-4 hours each last two nights in a row so I know how that feels haha
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 11:52:18 AM
12z Ukie is very close to being mostly snow for BNA. Probably is mostly snow for Mem. 850's right on the edge.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 11:55:12 AM
Might want to check the EPS / GEFS on the Tues/Wed time frame as it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 11, 2021, 11:59:20 AM
This is so difficult to watch so caution is advised. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 11, 2021, 12:02:10 PM
This is so difficult to watch so caution is advised. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 11, 2021, 12:03:44 PM
That.....was....

 ::wow:: ::wow:: ::wow:: ::wow:: ::wow:: ::wow::
It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 11, 2021, 12:06:54 PM
It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 11, 2021, 12:08:13 PM
I saw where they declared a MCE, but missed the fatalities.  Given the video, it was a certainty.
The 2 cars about 3/4 ths into that video that get smashed by the semi...no way you can survive that impact. It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Charles L. on February 11, 2021, 12:11:46 PM
The 2 cars about 3/4 ths into that video that get smashed by the semi...no way you can survive that impact. It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 12:13:11 PM
Wow, that is hard to watch. Geez.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: kristin on February 11, 2021, 12:13:46 PM
Prayers for all those involved.  That was horrible!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 11, 2021, 12:28:14 PM
This is so difficult to watch so caution is advised. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 11, 2021, 12:46:37 PM
Euro for both systems next week.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on February 11, 2021, 12:50:06 PM
Gonna be a long week I think
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 11, 2021, 12:50:21 PM
Euro for both systems next week.

(Attachment Link)
still saying we see least 12 to 1 ratio with the surface temps we will see
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 11, 2021, 12:51:58 PM
Euro for both systems next week.

(Attachment Link)
WPC had you in the heavy snow hazard yesterday https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 11, 2021, 12:52:48 PM
still saying we see least 12 to 1 ratio with the surface temps we will see

At least 12 to 1? That's very generous, especially with a warm nose limiting dendritic growth
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 11, 2021, 12:54:00 PM
WPC had you in the heavy snow hazard yesterday https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

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5 feet.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 11, 2021, 12:54:41 PM
At least 12 to 1? That's very generous, especially with a warm nose limiting dendritic growth
that 850 nose was less impressive on that run on euro, hopefully we got nice trend going
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: spanarkle08 on February 11, 2021, 12:57:39 PM
Between Paris and Dresden got a good coating
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Charles L. on February 11, 2021, 01:06:02 PM
Yeah it seems like that Dresden to Paris corridor got a pretty decent event.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: TNHunter on February 11, 2021, 01:13:08 PM
Euro for both systems next week.

(Attachment Link)

It
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 11, 2021, 01:15:46 PM
This is so difficult to watch so caution is advised. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 11, 2021, 01:20:12 PM
How awful. The other side of these winter storms. I can only commend the truckers for going up against the median wall to try to lessen the impact, though it was too late to help much. What a horrible situation to be in as an unsuspecting driver coming upon that.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 11, 2021, 01:22:15 PM
MEG:(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210211/d18a75363ee9a4c07120836f5b9eec7c.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Navywxman on February 11, 2021, 01:22:23 PM
And that truck that was flipped. Dear god
It's really like some just didn't even attempt to stop. Even on a thin layer of ice, you would hear some sort of noise from braking attempts.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 01:23:48 PM
How awful. The other side of these winter storms. I can only commend the truckers for going up against the median wall to try to lessen the impact, though it was too late to help much. What a horrible situation to be in as an unsuspecting driver coming upon that.

Yeah, concrete barriers on both sides looked to have them boxed in. Nowhere to go.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 11, 2021, 01:44:19 PM
Any one look at tomorrows minor system? Doesn't seem like anything but I havent had time to look today model wise.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 11, 2021, 08:20:13 PM
Parts of Oklahoma are showing up as 50 degrees below normal on Monday. Wow.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 11, 2021, 08:49:22 PM
The 0z NAM run ends looking very sleety early Monday morning for the Memphis area

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 11, 2021, 08:52:28 PM
The 0z NAM run ends looking very sleety early Monday morning for the Memphis area

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nam not good that range
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 11, 2021, 09:00:06 PM
nam not good that range
Even so it holds up with the others for that time frame so far

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 11, 2021, 09:00:42 PM
The 0z NAM run ends looking very sleety early Monday morning for the Memphis area

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Looks like the NAM is also speeding up the timing. Precip this run starting around 9am Sunday and probably concludes Monday afternoon.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 09:03:53 PM
Looks like the NAM is also speeding up the timing. Precip this run starting around 9am Sunday and probably concludes Monday afternoon.

Also warmer surface on up vs 12z Euro.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 11, 2021, 09:19:10 PM
Looks like the NAM is also speeding up the timing. Precip this run starting around 9am Sunday and probably concludes Monday afternoon.
things speed up that fast , you see meg putting out winter storm watches tomorrow evening ? Perhaps
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 11, 2021, 09:29:39 PM
Also warmer surface on up vs 12z Euro.

If its any consolation, the NAMs thermals are junk.  GFS soundly beat it this past event.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 09:43:09 PM
If its any consolation, the NAMs thermals are junk.  GFS soundly beat it this past event.

True, probably should have added that context. Just quickly threw that out there.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 11, 2021, 09:53:17 PM
If its any consolation, the NAMs thermals are junk.  GFS soundly beat it this past event.

(https://media1.giphy.com/media/VFYJXIuuFl6pO/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 11, 2021, 10:07:03 PM
If we could go ahead and lock the 0z GFS in I'd be okay with it

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 11, 2021, 10:15:46 PM
If we could go ahead and lock the 0z GFS in I'd be okay with it

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No doubt... No ZR all sleet and snow.  ::applause::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 10:17:03 PM
If we could go ahead and lock the 0z GFS in I'd be okay with it

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With the massive ice storm for Mem at 150?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 10:18:53 PM
BNA with a nice heavy rain at 33 degrees for Storm 2.  ::bagoverhead::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 11, 2021, 10:21:16 PM
With the massive ice storm for Mem at 150?
Yeah I'd be cool with it as long as storm 1 comes in. Plenty of time for storm 2 to get it's stuff together

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 11, 2021, 10:23:58 PM
Yeah I'd be cool with it as long as storm 1 comes in. Plenty of time for storm 2 to get it's stuff together

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we need both storms be mostly snow... I want get into the double digit range next week ⛄️
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 11, 2021, 10:25:52 PM
Ice totals in southern Arky are insane on Storm 2. Memphis around an inch, not much better.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on February 11, 2021, 10:27:31 PM
Is that an SVR threat I see for Storm 2 around the TN/AL/GA line?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 11, 2021, 10:41:25 PM
Ice totals in southern Arky are insane on Storm 2. Memphis around an inch, not much better.
hopefully we can get a good snow on storm 1. Create colder temps for storm 2. Hopefully it cool off more at the 850 level also
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 11, 2021, 10:43:20 PM
Lake Effect snow triggers WWA in OK(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210212/d356b943402a2bb879509daf9f0c0970.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 12, 2021, 07:59:10 AM
Has there ever been a time when Seattle, Texas (Down to I-10), and Kentucky and Tennessee are all under the gun for winter weather? I don't remember one even in 2011, maybe 1985? 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 12, 2021, 08:25:18 AM
It does look like we moderate very quickly at the tail end of this month. That makes sense as the AO rises from near-record low to positive, the NAO goes back to positive, and it is that tail end of Feb/Early March in a Nina year.

This looks like this is that 2-4 period of intense winter that we were promised at least outside of East TN that had theirs around Christmas.     
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 12, 2021, 08:51:17 AM
 https://youtu.be/Oc3d5fDsVCM  (https://youtu.be/Oc3d5fDsVCM)

Interesting video.  Current unusual pattern has warm fronts going the wrong way around the strong vortex in southcentral Canada, moving north to south.

Too bad the vortex parked there. If it had been more south of Hudson Bay, the snow now forecast to be over the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley, would be over the Tennessee Valley and Southeast.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 12, 2021, 08:57:21 AM
A bookended winter indeed ... East Tennessee hit the jackpot at the beginning of the winter, and West Tennessee hits the jackpot at the end of the winter.  Middle Tennessee gets to check out the book and write a report.

So poetic ... kind of like a bathroom limerick.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 12, 2021, 09:35:25 AM
A bookended winter indeed ... East Tennessee hit the jackpot at the beginning of the winter, and West Tennessee hits the jackpot at the end of the winter.  Middle Tennessee gets to check out the book and write a report.

So poetic ... kind of like a bathroom limerick.

Even then, only some parts of Middle really got screwed (assuming we all get shut out). I got nearly 3 inches on January 7.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 12, 2021, 09:40:18 AM
Even then, only some parts of Middle really got screwed (assuming we all get shut out). I got nearly 3 inches on January 7.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/JUXtMl2EBAuzFuUqI7/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 12, 2021, 01:05:04 PM
Good site where one can view temps statewide or nationwide.  Sorry for length of link.  I didn't create it.  :P

https://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=31.4905&lon=-100.4720&zoom=8&ql=FFFFFFTFFFFFTFFFFFFFFFF&ml=U.S._States|700|0.8&bm=ESRI_Nat_Geo&lsr=F&lsrp=3&lsra=&mp=F&lfc=T&rt=both&rf=major|moderate|minor|action&ht=F&pid=N0Q&sf=GOES_Infrared_-_SSEC&ri=5&obs=TFTTFFFFFFTF&is=1&ou=mph&od=0&ships=F&cluster=T&radO=0.75&satO=0.75&hazO=0.3&tropO=0.7&ndfdO=0.7&ndfdR=Continental_US&ndfdF=Maximum_Temperature_(%C2%BAF)&ndfdT=12&ndfdTS=&lviz=F&fullscreen=F&fxt=Point_(Text_Only)&ppd=24&pdy=3&satf=60&obsync=F&flavor=Advanced&tfo=&tfd=&tfw=&ht=F&hd=F&ho=&hf=&hb=F&hsps=F&ot=Temperature&hvt=F&sht=F&ehm=T&uwl=F&ec=F&lll=F&keys=&tfwfo=&tfsite=&ofont=20&opnt=&oset=&oan=F&oap=1&oid=F&cc=Pub&oo=T&cs=F&rs=S&ofbs= (https://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=31.4905&lon=-100.4720&zoom=8&ql=FFFFFFTFFFFFTFFFFFFFFFF&ml=U.S._States|700|0.8&bm=ESRI_Nat_Geo&lsr=F&lsrp=3&lsra=&mp=F&lfc=T&rt=both&rf=major|moderate|minor|action&ht=F&pid=N0Q&sf=GOES_Infrared_-_SSEC&ri=5&obs=TFTTFFFFFFTF&is=1&ou=mph&od=0&ships=F&cluster=T&radO=0.75&satO=0.75&hazO=0.3&tropO=0.7&ndfdO=0.7&ndfdR=Continental_US&ndfdF=Maximum_Temperature_(%C2%BAF)&ndfdT=12&ndfdTS=&lviz=F&fullscreen=F&fxt=Point_(Text_Only)&ppd=24&pdy=3&satf=60&obsync=F&flavor=Advanced&tfo=&tfd=&tfw=&ht=F&hd=F&ho=&hf=&hb=F&hsps=F&ot=Temperature&hvt=F&sht=F&ehm=T&uwl=F&ec=F&lll=F&keys=&tfwfo=&tfsite=&ofont=20&opnt=&oset=&oan=F&oap=1&oid=F&cc=Pub&oo=T&cs=F&rs=S&ofbs=)

What's interesting is one can see the current warmer air aloft, despite the cold air near the surface.  Temps in most areas surrounding western NC are in the 30's and lower 40's.  However,  the reporting stations in western NC (around 2,000ft) are near 50, showing the warm air is not that far from the surface.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 12, 2021, 03:14:22 PM
https://youtu.be/Oc3d5fDsVCM  (https://youtu.be/Oc3d5fDsVCM)

Interesting video.  Current unusual pattern has warm fronts going the wrong way around the strong vortex in southcentral Canada, moving north to south.

Too bad the vortex parked there. If it had been more south of Hudson Bay, the snow now forecast to be over the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley, would be over the Tennessee Valley and Southeast.

I love Tim!
Yeah - crazy look here.

(https://i.imgur.com/jrRjdzX.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on February 12, 2021, 03:29:19 PM
We got nowhere near our projected high today. Same as Tuesday.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 12, 2021, 03:33:04 PM
I love Tim!
Yeah - crazy look here.

(https://i.imgur.com/jrRjdzX.jpg)

I know. What a crazy map! A warm front heading south, and a cold front heading north.  A Southern Hemispheric looking map in the Nothern Hemisphere. Gotta love the craziness of weather.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on February 13, 2021, 10:38:22 AM
Last night's/this morning's light accumulating freezing rain/mist has caused a major wreck on I-24E around the OHB exit and has shut down all eastbound lanes.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 13, 2021, 12:11:33 PM
As crazy as this sounds we do look to moderate after we have our crazy week of winter weather.  The latest GFS wants to show a severe threat around the 25th-26th.   

With this being a La-Nina and being that we are involved in the battleground of two airmasses that actually would make sense for that to happen. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Charles L. on February 13, 2021, 12:24:30 PM
The Euro is still holding onto the Thursday system too.[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 13, 2021, 12:50:31 PM
The Euro has two waves on the second system also. All snow for much of West Tn.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 13, 2021, 01:19:04 PM
The Euro has two waves on the second system also. All snow for much of West Tn.

As long as i get my 4-5+ with this system i will be fine if i don't get anything else this season....i just want one Good one every season and then i am happy :)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Flash on February 13, 2021, 01:45:19 PM
The Euro has two waves on the second system also. All snow for much of West Tn.

Indeed...should be a pretty white week for west TN. All that patience is about to pay off. You braved a dyer start.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 13, 2021, 01:52:07 PM
My forecast high today is 28, as we approach 2 it is 22. Once again temps are going under guidance. ::popcorn::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 13, 2021, 02:11:52 PM
My forecast high today is 28, as we approach 2 it is 22. Once again temps are going under guidance. ::popcorn::  ::cold:: ::snowman::

My car thermometer read 26 at 1pm. I don't think we're going to hit 33.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 13, 2021, 03:01:04 PM
We made it to a balmy 18.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 13, 2021, 03:35:33 PM
Do we want to start a thread about the mid to late week system as well, merge with the Monday thread, or wait till the Monday storm wraps up?

Not too often we have two back to back.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 13, 2021, 03:38:25 PM
Do we want to start a thread about the mid to late week system as well, merge with the Monday thread, or wait till the Monday storm wraps up?

Not too often we have two back to back.

I'd be for keeping it as a mega thread.  The first storm is going to greatly amplify the effects of storm 2.  In reality, the impacts are going to be from the combination of both storms. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 13, 2021, 03:38:55 PM
Throwback to when Bruce said this would be a "front-loaded winter"  ::evillaugh::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 13, 2021, 04:06:58 PM
Do we want to start a thread about the mid to late week system as well, merge with the Monday thread, or wait till the Monday storm wraps up?

Not too often we have two back to back.
**** who knows. This is new territory for us. Not very often we get 5 feet.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 13, 2021, 05:53:26 PM
Throwback to when Bruce said this would be a "front-loaded winter"  ::evillaugh::

For some parts of East TN that statement is true just saying  :)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 13, 2021, 05:58:15 PM
Back-loaded winters are not that common during La-Nina's after all there is this winter (for West TN and most of Middle TN north of the southern end of I-840) and then there is 1967-68 and 2007-08 and then crickets.   

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on February 13, 2021, 08:02:53 PM
For some parts of East TN that statement is true just saying  :)
For Chattanooga in the valley locations, this Winter never loaded at all. Pretty depressing to us winter weather lovers in the CHA area how this Epic Arctic outbreak has evolved. The rule of thumb when northern Mississippi gets cold and snow, we do too downstream just goes out the window. When Matamoros, Mexico is colder than Chattanooga, time to throw in the Winter White Towel.. etc, etc.  ::cliff::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on February 13, 2021, 08:14:50 PM
For Chattanooga in the valley locations, this Winter never loaded at all. Pretty depressing to us winter weather lovers in the CHA area how this Epic Arctic outbreak has evolved. The rule of thumb when northern Mississippi gets cold and snow, we do too downstream just goes out the window. When Matamoros, Mexico is colder than Chattanooga, time to throw in the Winter White Towel.. etc, etc.  ::cliff::

The stars practically have to align for snow in Chattanooga. I know, I lived there for 31 years. It's geographic location is the worst for snow. Surrounded by mountains to the east and west and the plateau to the north, and then the south end opening to let warm air funnel in is the perfect setup for disappointment time and time again.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Michael on February 13, 2021, 08:37:49 PM
SE Ridge is a b*tch for East Tn. Give me some sun. My yard is like a **** muddy sponge. Im over this crap.


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Greyhound on February 13, 2021, 09:04:29 PM
SE Ridge is a b*tch for East Tn. Give me some sun. My yard is like a **** muddy sponge. Im over this crap.


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Yep.....same here in Knoxvegas


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 13, 2021, 09:08:37 PM
Throw us a bone, guys. Y'all had a White Christmas.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Greyhound on February 13, 2021, 09:37:52 PM
Throw us a bone, guys. Y'all had a White Christmas.
You got it!!  Y
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 13, 2021, 09:43:06 PM
You got it!!  Y
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 14, 2021, 12:43:21 AM
Everyone even OHX seems more bullish than me on the second storm.....East of Jackson or even Memphis will be lucky to see any snow. If anything you know what we are in for again. The airmass demands it!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Michael on February 14, 2021, 12:05:14 PM
Throw us a bone, guys. Y'all had a White Christmas.
Lol. Yeah, about 4.5
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 14, 2021, 01:50:33 PM
Even though Johnson City has has almost 20 inches this winter it never got really cold like West and Middle Tennessee the last few days and during this first event. The 6.5 inches we got Christmas Eve was the coldest as we stayed below 25 for 2 days. I would love to see a winter where the whole state had frozen ground then a big snow followed by several days of below freezing. It has happened before but it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Michael on February 14, 2021, 05:09:02 PM
Where I live
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210214/ae255a87ad072043f3c0afa9b98fea17.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Eric on February 14, 2021, 06:12:18 PM
Where I live
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210214/ae255a87ad072043f3c0afa9b98fea17.jpg)


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Ouch.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 14, 2021, 06:53:45 PM
I live east of that circle in Johnson City where we are not even close. Can
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Crockett on February 15, 2021, 12:39:39 AM
When it takes 8 hours to drive the length of the state, it goes without saying that there are always going to be some rejoicing and some crying crocodile tears when a major winter storm strikes. I'm not complaining because we had our 8" snow last weekend (even though it was gone within 48 hours). But it does seem to be a trend that has persisted for more than a decade now...East Tennessee gets more snow on the whole than the rest of the state, but the epic, most memorable snows seem to be a West Tennessee thing for now. Even here on the plateau, which is the snowiest part of the state outside of the mountains, true "winter storm warning" type events with snow that lays around for several days seem to be mostly a thing of the past while we get plenty of nuisance snows of about an inch or two. Like I said, I'm not complaining; I'm more than ready for spring. But I get the complaints from the eastern side of the state. The way this arctic outbreak is playing out with major winter storms riding the periphery while East TN is stuck on the warm side due to the SER may be the most disappointing period of winter weather I can remember in a long time on this side of the state.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Beth on February 15, 2021, 01:25:29 AM
I am sorry!  Hoping our whole state cashes in on this extra ordinary event!  Fingers crossed that you and the rest of our friends have something to celebrate! ☃️
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 15, 2021, 01:43:15 AM
Sure hope the Euro is right on the Wednesday-Thursday storm.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 15, 2021, 07:43:47 AM
I have never seen arctic air that cold stay in place for 2 weeks and not move 1 inch. In fact at times it moved more west. Dyersburg has been in the deep freeze for 2 weeks and Johnson City has not even been below freezing during that same period. Memphis is getting a major snowstorm and in the teens. Just bizarre for a stretch that long. Must be the strongest SER ever


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 15, 2021, 08:32:54 AM
The GFS has a flood here of 3.5
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 15, 2021, 09:15:08 AM
I have never seen arctic air that cold stay in place for 2 weeks and not move 1 inch. In fact at times it moved more west. Dyersburg has been in the deep freeze for 2 weeks and Johnson City has not even been below freezing during that same period. Memphis is getting a major snowstorm and in the teens. Just bizarre for a stretch that long. Must be the strongest SER ever

Welcome to a La Nina enhanced by a strong Phase 6/7 MJO signal both of which favors a SE ridge.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 15, 2021, 10:08:56 AM
I love most forms of winter weather, save ice storms.  It's just plain rain that happens to freeze after it falls. It's more destructive than enjoyable. If I can't have snow or sleet, I'm grateful for the SER this time around.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 15, 2021, 12:39:02 PM
A balmy 44 here this afternoon.  For those ready for spring, I heard the spring peeps near the creek down the road earlier today.  I must say, it was a welcome sound! Brighter days ahead!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 15, 2021, 01:21:00 PM
Welcome to a La Nina enhanced by a strong Phase 6/7 MJO signal both of which favors a SE ridge.
Do we need a neutral winter with the MJO to be in Phase 8 for the best chance of a colder and potentially snowier winter for Tennessee


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 15, 2021, 06:50:26 PM
Just wondering how much snow you guys picked up in West and Middle Tennessee


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: tntwilight on February 15, 2021, 07:06:06 PM
Just wondering how much snow you guys picked up in West and Middle Tennessee


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Centerville, TN was about an inch of sleet and a dusting of snow on top. Only started snowing here the last 45 minutes to an hour before the event ended.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 15, 2021, 09:20:48 PM
Centerville, TN was about an inch of sleet and a dusting of snow on top. Only started snowing here the last 45 minutes to an hour before the event ended.

Not sure we even could consider it a dusting of snow.  We have lots of ice. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 15, 2021, 09:31:37 PM
Just wondering how much snow you guys picked up in West and Middle Tennessee

Estimated 0.10" ice, plus verified 2" of sleet and a dusting of snow in SE Nashville.

(https://i.gifer.com/origin/61/61078e38a6bdf8d15ba6fe46ed0b2ad9_w200.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 16, 2021, 01:01:00 AM
Boy Twitter is a dumpster fire right now, and I weep for our future. You have people not as affected by the cold and winter storm responding to the energy companys' pleas to reduce power consumption with sarcasm, or out right ill intent. People are responding by telling them to "screw off, I'm mad my bill goes up in the summer" and others outright posting pictures of every light in thier house being on with the heat on 85.

Then on the flip side you have people without power raging about being without power and they have to study, or they have kids, or they are missing thier show, or blah blah blah. It just stinks of entitlement and peak first world problems. 

It sucks, I get it, but extreme weather causes problems. This isn't news. Why aren't these people prepared for this? This was probably one of the most well forecasted artic outbreaks and this storm was well modeled and forecasted.  Last Monday I made sure my emergency supplies were fresh and secure.  I went and got 10 gallons of gas for my generator. I charged all my power tool batteries because I have inverters for them and they can be used to power things. I made sure my gas fireplace worked. I had all my flash lights in one spot. I made sure we had lots of clean blankets.  I tested a couple if space heaters I had stowed for these types of emergencies. In short, I acted like an adult and took measures to protect my family in the eventof power loss due to the weather and knowing life threatening cold and was possible.

It just makes me sad people are too stupid to understand the energy companies aren't asking you to conserve energy for them, but for other folks that are probably just like them.  They aren't doing the blackouts just to mess with you, they are doing them because thier power plants have become giant blocks of ice.while demand is through the roof because of the Temps. No one appreciates the magnitude of the situation. People just want to dish out blame and not take measures to take care of themselves as if people didn't survive fine decades ago before widespread electricity and gas networks were even a thing.

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 01:49:30 AM
Boy Twitter is a dumpster fire right now, and I weep for our future. You have people not as affected by the cold and winter storm responding to the energy companys' pleas to reduce power consumption with sarcasm, or out right ill intent. People are responding by telling them to "screw off, I'm mad my bill goes up in the summer" and others outright posting pictures of every light in thier house being on with the heat on 85.

Then on the flip side you have people without power raging about being without power and they have to study, or they have kids, or they are missing thier show, or blah blah blah. It just stinks of entitlement and peak first world problems. 

It sucks, I get it, but extreme weather causes problems. This isn't news. Why aren't these people prepared for this? This was probably one of the most well forecasted artic outbreaks and this storm was well modeled and forecasted.  Last Monday I made sure my emergency supplies were fresh and secure.  I went and got 10 gallons of gas for my generator. I charged all my power tool batteries because I have inverters for them and they can be used to power things. I made sure my gas fireplace worked. I had all my flash lights in one spot. I made sure we had lots of clean blankets.  I tested a coupke if space heaters I had stowed for these types of emergencies. In short, I acted like an adult and took measures to protect my family in the eventof power loss due to the weather and knowing life threatening cold and was possible.

It just makes me sad people are too stupid to understand the energy companies aren't asking you to conserve energy for them, but for other folks that are probably just like them.  They aren't doing the blackouts just to mess with you, they are doing them because thier power plants have become giant blocks of ice.while demand is through the roof because of the Temps. No one appreciates the magnitude of the situation. People just want to dish out blame and not take measures to take care of themselves as of people didn't survive fine decades ago before widespread electricity and gas networks were even a thing.

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So, I tried to get this conversation going in the Old storm thread and said it was the apocalypse in the new storm thread.

I don't do politics these days but you've basically nailed my social commentary... I do think we are on the brink of social collapse right now. 

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 16, 2021, 02:15:19 AM
So, I tried to get this conversation going in the Old storm thread and said it was the apocalypse in the new storm thread.

I don't do politics these days but you've basically nailed my social commentary... I do think we are on the brink of social collapse right now. 

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After being on Twitter more, I will give them one thing - the pictures of empty downtown skyscrapers being lit up while they sit at home in the dark is pretty maddening. I have also seen outage maps from Dallas and Austin where the affluent neighborhoods mysteriously have power will those around and beside them are out.

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 16, 2021, 02:20:06 AM
Looking at radar.  I wonder if these streamer flurries or snow showers are off bodies of water.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: DocB on February 16, 2021, 06:14:21 AM
After being on Twitter more, I will give them one thing - the pictures of empty downtown skyscrapers being lit up while they sit at home in the dark is pretty maddening. I have also seen outage maps from Dallas and Austin where the affluent neighborhoods mysteriously have power will those around and beside them are out.
I wonder if this has more to do with underground power than anything. In my 'newer' neighborhood, our electric is all underground and a sub-station is across the road. As long as the high-tension lines stay energized, its a better scenario than typical residential overhead lines. 

That said, like you I also prepared for power outages anyway. Got another propane tank (it was hard to find) to use with indoor propane heater, charged every battery I have, gassed up all vehicles and verified I had flashlights under every sink in house (this way I always know where to find one no matter which room I am in). Food pantry is also adequate. I may have 'reliable' power, but I still don't take things to chance that are out of my control. When the Snow Hits The Fan (SHTF: See Texas wind turbines), I also fear most people won't know what to do. I am not in that group.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 16, 2021, 07:54:26 AM
It's snowing lightly in Cleveland this morning. We have a dusting.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 08:29:16 AM
Why aren't these people prepared for this?

People just want to dish out blame and not take measures to take care of themselves as if people didn't survive fine decades ago before widespread electricity and gas networks were even a thing.

I was about to answer but then I read further and see you answered yourself.  ::evillaugh::

In general, the average American has little self independence which is sad to see how far we've come from our historical heritage of rugged survival and independence. I'll say this, we are all at various stages, of being too dependent on a system/infrastructure/supply chain that continues to consolidate itself and show itself to be untrustworthy. I don't think most people know who close we came to having HUGE supply chain issues with food during the lockdown crisis. 330 million Americans, most of which have no way to feed themselves without the local supermarket, myself included.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 08:48:47 AM
I was about to answer but then I read further and see you answered yourself.  ::evillaugh::

In general, the average American has little self independence which is sad to see how far we've come from our historical heritage of rugged survival and independence. I'll say this, we are all at various stages, of being too dependent on a system/infrastructure/supply chain that continues to consolidate itself and show itself to be untrustworthy. I don't think most people know who close we came to having HUGE supply chain issues with food during the lockdown crisis. 330 million Americans, most of which have no way to feed themselves without the local supermarket, myself included.
I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: wmp600 on February 16, 2021, 09:09:29 AM
I was about to answer but then I read further and see you answered yourself.  ::evillaugh::

In general, the average American has little self independence which is sad to see how far we've come from our historical heritage of rugged survival and independence. I'll say this, we are all at various stages, of being too dependent on a system/infrastructure/supply chain that continues to consolidate itself and show itself to be untrustworthy. I don't think most people know who close we came to having HUGE supply chain issues with food during the lockdown crisis. 330 million Americans, most of which have no way to feed themselves without the local supermarket, myself included.
I totally agree. I have a medium size garden which supplied much of my food last summer.When I was growing up you would see a lot of people with gardens of different sizes. Today I know I am one of the few where I live who has one. Its not easy work & takes time & a good bit of effort. There are many reasons for this. Some are not preventabe & some are.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 09:42:01 AM
Not a bad run here..

Sunday - Late night sleet event
Monday - mostly sleet storm ending with a little snow
Tuesday - light snow showers
Wednesday - late night possible wintry weather moving in
Thursday - possibly wintry weather event

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: RobD on February 16, 2021, 10:32:39 AM
Boy Twitter is a dumpster fire right now, and I weep for our future.

I'll add that the vast majority of people don't post on Twitter. And a lot of them who do I swear just want to be contrarians. I used to think that it was a lack of information that kept people ignorant, but now that I can "see" what they're actually thinking with no filter I wonder what the heck happened to them growing up!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 10:48:40 AM
Boy Twitter is a dumpster fire right now, and I weep for our future. You have people not as affected by the cold and winter storm responding to the energy companys' pleas to reduce power consumption with sarcasm, or out right ill intent. People are responding by telling them to "screw off, I'm mad my bill goes up in the summer" and others outright posting pictures of every light in thier house being on with the heat on 85.

Then on the flip side you have people without power raging about being without power and they have to study, or they have kids, or they are missing thier show, or blah blah blah. It just stinks of entitlement and peak first world problems. 

It sucks, I get it, but extreme weather causes problems. This isn't news. Why aren't these people prepared for this? This was probably one of the most well forecasted artic outbreaks and this storm was well modeled and forecasted.  Last Monday I made sure my emergency supplies were fresh and secure.  I went and got 10 gallons of gas for my generator. I charged all my power tool batteries because I have inverters for them and they can be used to power things. I made sure my gas fireplace worked. I had all my flash lights in one spot. I made sure we had lots of clean blankets.  I tested a couple if space heaters I had stowed for these types of emergencies. In short, I acted like an adult and took measures to protect my family in the eventof power loss due to the weather and knowing life threatening cold and was possible.

It just makes me sad people are too stupid to understand the energy companies aren't asking you to conserve energy for them, but for other folks that are probably just like them.  They aren't doing the blackouts just to mess with you, they are doing them because thier power plants have become giant blocks of ice.while demand is through the roof because of the Temps. No one appreciates the magnitude of the situation. People just want to dish out blame and not take measures to take care of themselves as if people didn't survive fine decades ago before widespread electricity and gas networks were even a thing.

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This is what happens when you have generation after generation of people raised on the principle of entitlement. The vast majority of adults today never encountered any real hardship in terms of food insecurity, extreme poverty, et cetera. Started around the late 1940s and you can expect it to continue. I suppose that's because we're a fully developed country now. If you ask me, widespread hardship has been nonexistent since the Great Depression.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 16, 2021, 10:48:52 AM
I'll add that the vast majority of people don't post on Twitter. And a lot of them who do I swear just want to be contrarians. I used to think that it was a lack of information that kept people ignorant, but now that I can "see" what they're actually thinking with no filter I wonder what the heck happened to them growing up!

I'm starting to think a lot of twitter is fake bots or maybe that is a wishcast on my part.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 10:51:27 AM
I'm starting to think a lot of twitter is fake bots or maybe that is a wishcast on my part.

Would not be surprised at all if a lot of those strictly political accounts are harbored by our adversaries. You can set a movement ablaze on Twitter very easily these days.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 16, 2021, 11:26:13 AM
I ended up with 1.5 inches of sleet and 1.5 inches of snow. It came another round of snow here around midnight, almost looked like lake effect coming off LBL picked up another quarter inch from it. Ready for the next round!!!! ::popcorn:: ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::yum:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 11:51:31 AM
I'm starting to think a lot of twitter is fake bots or maybe that is a wishcast on my part.
I think you're onto something there.  While I certainly know plenty of people with Twitter accounts, those who are loud and active and post inflammatory things.... I know none of those people. 

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 16, 2021, 02:02:34 PM
must say these all day snow flurries have been very pretty against a backdrop of an inch of sleet and quarter inch of snow....at least sleet made the ground white :)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 16, 2021, 04:49:24 PM
The mood flakes are falling right now as the sun is setting. Looks pretty out.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 16, 2021, 05:17:07 PM
The flurries have been very persistent... sort of like overtime with this past system, which shrinks the time before tomorrow's system.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Tamlin on February 16, 2021, 05:24:41 PM
Little off subject but if you want to see some insane records broken, go look at Shreveport. They broke their low record for the date by 19 degrees. Was 20 and they got down to 1 last night.

Longview, TX, and Tyler, TX, broke their all-time records lows with -5 and -6 respectively.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 16, 2021, 07:37:04 PM
Well the rolling blackouts have officially hit North Mississippi.  I am sitting the the dark.  Going to give it some time before I rig up the generator.

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Tamlin on February 16, 2021, 07:47:09 PM
Well the rolling blackouts have officially hit North Mississippi.  I am sitting the the dark.  Going to give it some time before I rig up the generator.

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You know for sure it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 07:48:02 PM
You know for sure it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 16, 2021, 07:49:07 PM
You know for sure it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 07:50:14 PM
I mean there is nothing going on weather wise so I can only assume.  The outage map is delayed so I don't know for certain.

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Had a friend in Arkansas lose theirs too. Entergy

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 16, 2021, 07:52:12 PM
Had a friend in Arkansas lose theirs too. Entergy

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers
Yeah, entergy is my provider.

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 16, 2021, 07:54:25 PM
Yeah, entergy is my provider.

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how long they last bug ?Curious
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JKT1987 on February 16, 2021, 07:59:02 PM
Quote
Craighead Electric
@CraigheadCoop

9m
URGENT NOTICE:. We have just been informed we have to drop 20MW demand off our system. The outages will be affecting entire substations. At this time we do not know which substations will be affected. We apologize for the short notice. Will update as we get more information.

Substations affected so far are Trumann, Jonesboro South, and Earle. The plan is to turn off the substation for one hour and then rotate to the next. Once we know what substation is next we will post it here.
Not directly Entergy but related...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 16, 2021, 08:02:56 PM
Not directly Entergy but related...
Yeah same grid network and the admins of the network direct providers what to do to keep the grid stable. This is certainly all related and a rolling blackout.

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Mr. Golf on February 16, 2021, 08:03:08 PM
Not directly Entergy but related...

I have cwl in jonesboro so everything is ok for me right now. I am cutting back to be on the safe side
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 16, 2021, 08:03:51 PM
how long they last bug ?Curious
No idea. This is the first one we have had. It's been about 30 minutes thus far.

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 08:32:37 PM
No idea. This is the first one we have had. It's been about 30 minutes thus far.

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Yep rolling blackouts(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210217/4596be96c90bb06fbd899ce44bbc15b6.jpg)

facebook.com/midsouthstormchasers

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 16, 2021, 08:41:56 PM
Nice pic of Reelfoot Lake.


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Hank W on February 16, 2021, 08:47:03 PM
No idea. This is the first one we have had. It's been about 30 minutes thus far.

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Interesting. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 16, 2021, 10:10:39 PM
Nice pic of Reelfoot Lake.


(Attachment Link)

Does it have ice covering it?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 10:30:20 PM
Interesting. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 16, 2021, 10:43:49 PM
Yes, well, we just learned what's happening and it it's quite shocking and I expect all of us to lose power soon. 

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They stopped at 9 PM. See my earlier posts and this [attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 16, 2021, 10:50:31 PM
They stopped at 9 PM. See my earlier posts and this (Attachment Link)
They are shutting down power to the compressors that push natural gas thru lines to their natural gas power plants, which is forcing those plants to shut down and forcing the grid strain and the blackouts. 

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 17, 2021, 05:47:33 AM
Does it have ice covering it?
Completely froze over.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: jwr2914 on February 17, 2021, 07:21:43 AM
Please tell me this system is the last significant threat for a minute here. I just got done helping the neighbor fix her pipe that burst. Luckily she only had one fail. I opened all her faucets and stuck the torpedo under her house and they thawed out fairly quickly.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 08:17:28 AM
Please tell me this system is the last significant threat for a minute here. I just got done helping the neighbor fix her pipe that burst. Luckily she only had one fail. I opened all her faucets and stuck the torpedo under her house and they thawed out fairly quickly.

Yeah, I think this is the end of winter.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 17, 2021, 10:37:35 AM
Yeah, I think this is the end of winter.

This system right here is the pattern-changing system I was talking about.  We lose the -NAO and the PNA starts to plunge and go into our typical La-Nina end of Feb/Early March period, which barring a March or even April Hail Mary is the end of winter threats or at least sustained cold.   

I just hope we get some nice weather before the severe threats really ramp up.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 17, 2021, 10:40:22 AM
This system right here is the pattern-changing system I was talking about.  We lose the -NAO and the PNA starts to plunge and go into our typical La-Nina end of Feb/Early March period, which barring a March or even April Hail Mary is the end of winter threats or at least sustained cold.   

I just hope we get some nice weather before the severe threats really ramp up.

As long as i get a decent snow from this which looks like it will happen, then i will be ok with winter being done if thats what it wants to do...had two significant events to track in a one week time frame...also a surprise 2 inches from a ULL in January
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: DocB on February 17, 2021, 11:13:38 AM
Yeah, I think this is the end of winter.
Next week we have the great thaw and snow melt. River levels should be interesting.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 17, 2021, 01:03:04 PM
Perusing the Wondermap temperature reports, I just noticed there is an 80F temperature difference between Dayton Tennessee (40F) and Brayton Tennessee (-40F).  Somebody needs to replace a battery.   ;D

Edit:  The temperature has warmed to 3F at Brayton. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 18, 2021, 01:17:17 PM
Next week we have the great thaw and snow melt. River levels should be interesting.
It's always sad to me to watch the snow melt away, but that said I have had my fix for the winter and folks like in Texas really need the warm up now.  Here's to an early spring.

That said, I am worried now we are going to have a scorching summer because in my mind I have no associated mild winters with no snow with mild summers with lots of rain.  Lets hope that's not the case.  Very scientific I know.  ::rofl::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 18, 2021, 01:49:51 PM
How much snow is on the ground in West and Middle Tennessee. We actually got 1-2 inches of snow last night in Johnson City before the heavy rain set in. We have only had 1 cold day in 10 days while the rest of the state has been bitter cold with rounds of winter weather. I don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 18, 2021, 01:58:01 PM
I got 5.5 inches of snow from both systems and 1.5 inches of ice. Looks like to far west for todays surprise but that is okay.::guitar:: ::guitar:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 02:00:36 PM
How much snow is on the ground in West and Middle Tennessee. We actually got 1-2 inches of snow last night in Johnson City before the heavy rain set in. We have only had 1 cold day in 10 days while the rest of the state has been bitter cold with rounds of winter weather. I don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 02:05:41 PM
It's always sad to me to watch the snow melt away, but that said I have had my fix for the winter and folks like in Texas really need the warm up now.  Here's to an early spring.

That said, I am worried now we are going to have a scorching summer because in my mind I have no associated mild winters with no snow with mild summers with lots of rain.  Lets hope that's not the case.  Very scientific I know.  ::rofl::
Texas people are fine... Most of this is media hype.  Like the frozen ceiling fan... Take that one picture out of the whole state and use it to imply that people are starving en masse. 

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: DocB on February 18, 2021, 02:41:07 PM
Texas people are fine... Most of this is media hype.  Like the frozen ceiling fan... Take that one picture out of the whole state and use it to imply that people are starving en masse. 
I concur. I know several people in the Dallas/Frisco area and they are all saying this is media drama. Yes, there are issues, but the 90%+ of people are coping fine.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 02:44:31 PM
I concur. I know several people in the Dallas/Frisco area and they are all saying this is media drama. Yes, there are issues, but the 90%+ of people are coping fine.

IDK i saw where some guy was opening up his furniture store for people to have shelter...remember texas is a huge state with huge population so even if just 1% were having trouble it would still be around 250,000-300,000 people having issues
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 18, 2021, 03:00:24 PM
I could get used to this. We need more winters like this here. Snow and cold doesn't bother me.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: DocB on February 18, 2021, 03:04:30 PM
IDK i saw where some guy was opening up his furniture store for people to have shelter...remember texas is a huge state with huge population so even if just 1% were having trouble it would still be around 250,000-300,000 people having issues
I have no doubt stories like this are happening all over. And its a VERY big deal to those who are suffering without question. There likely will be investigations when this is all over, but media exaggeration is no doubt part of the problem too.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 18, 2021, 03:24:06 PM
I have no doubt stories like this are happening all over. And its a VERY big deal to those who are suffering without question. There likely will be investigations when this is all over, but media exaggeration is no doubt part of the problem too.

Oh i agree media loves a story....but it does seem a very poor response in some areas of that state, they had fair warning a big system with very dangerous cold was coming their way for days, so should have been ready
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 18, 2021, 03:53:18 PM
I wouldnt say Texas people are fine.  Yes the media is playing it up but there is no doubt people are suffering and having to make sacrifices (like burning their fences). What happened was a big deal and the power companies there have some 'splaining to do.  No doubt the Texan with make it through this just fine but I just don't want to dimiss those they are dealing with hardship.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 18, 2021, 04:04:00 PM
I wouldnt say Texas people are fine.  Yes the media is playing it up but there is no doubt people are suffering and having to make sacrifices (like burning their fences). What happened was a big deal and the power companies there have some 'splaining to do.  No doubt the Texan with make it through this just fine but I just don't want to dimiss those they are dealing with hardship.

It should be noted that yes the Dallas area was hit hard, but the absolute worst areas by NWS CWA were the Austin/San Antonio CWA, Houston CWA, and the Corpus Christi CWA.  Those areas were hit quite hard and I know people from that part and know others who know of others that are struggling. 

Dallas and Fort Worth can take somewhat of a hit because they do occasionally get cold/snow about at the same rate that Southern Middle TN does actually, but once you get south of Waco a cold shot like this is fairly unprecedented territory.

The NWS office of Austin/San Antonio has issued like 6 Winter Storm Warnings this winter.  Granted only 1-2 inches of snow and just a hair over 1/10 inch of ice is all that is needed to trigger one, but that is pretty darn impressive.     
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 18, 2021, 04:43:37 PM
Texas people are fine... Most of this is media hype.  Like the frozen ceiling fan... Take that one picture out of the whole state and use it to imply that people are starving en masse. 

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People will be fine eventually but working for a company that is based in Houston and have been there so many times and have a lot of good friends there I work with.  I can tell you from first hand it is not so well for millions.  My owner let us know over 1.4 million we
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 18, 2021, 04:54:35 PM
This pattern and the duo of storms this week will have to be a case study for the future on how it can happen (at least in the western 2/3rds of the state). This winter has been the tale of two halves of the state. Both East and West received significant snow events this season, just not at the same time. That speaks to how wide the state is west to east. The pattern for one part of the state doesn't usually benefit the other side of the state.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 18, 2021, 05:33:31 PM
Albeit it's more rare, there are those winters where the state as a whole does reasonably well and receives decent episodes of cold and snow (sometimes with the same winter storm) like '09-'10 & '10-'11, when even Chattanooga did well.   Where the trough sets up (central U.S. vs east), how broad or sharp it is, and how progressive the trough becomes, all play a part in where winter is memorable or mediocre. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 18, 2021, 05:44:50 PM
I think what made this pattern so rare is the number of days of arctic cold in West Tennessee with none of that cold ever reaching the Tri-Cities during the entire 2 week span. Johnson City is a little colder average temp wise than Dyersburg which is not going to get above 32 degrees for 11 straight days and during that same period Johnson City has only been below 32 one night. Dyersburg went 3 straight days with highs in the teens. I have seen snowstorms hit that part of the state where we were on the warm side and got rain but the storm would pass by and we would turn much colder. There was times the cold air would get within 100 miles then move back west. I think this pattern locked in for 2 weeks is a first for me and I have lived in Johnson City for over 50 years. The southeast ridge kept the cold air locked in and it could not move off the east coast like a normal pattern which created the long duration of arctic air


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 18, 2021, 06:37:48 PM
This winter has now left me with nothing to complain about.

Measurements IMBY

Nov 30: 0.3"
Dec 25: T
Jan 7: 3"
Jan 11: T
Jan 16: 0.4"
Feb 16: 0.5" (excludes sleet)
Feb 18: 3.5"

If winter ended today, that brings me to 7.7" for the year. Most I've seen since '11.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 18, 2021, 08:28:16 PM
It has not been a cold winter in Johnson City but we have cashed in snow wise on just about every opportunity. We have basically had 20 inches

11/30:   2.1 inches
12/17:    Trace of snow
12/24.   6.5 inches
01/08:   2.3 inches
01/11:     .2 inches
01/16:    1.2 inches
01/18:      .5 inches
01/27:     Trace of snow
02/01:      2 inches
02/08:      4 inches
02/16.       Trace of snow
02/18.       1.5 inches

Our average snowfall the last 3 years has been 13.5 inches per year for Johnson City. The most snow I have ever seen in Johnson City was 95-96 when we had over 45 inches. That winter we had 18 inches, 12 inches, and 6 inches plus several smaller snows. The ground was white for 3 weeks the month of February. It was a good winter for total snowfall that would have been a great winter if the last 2 storms had also hit East Tennessee


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 18, 2021, 09:24:13 PM
I have no doubt stories like this are happening all over. And its a VERY big deal to those who are suffering without question. There likely will be investigations when this is all over, but media exaggeration is no doubt part of the problem too.
And so, that is the question.  Human suffering is a given.  There are heartbreaking stories of people suffering everywhere and in all situations.

Doubtless, more people and more suffering will occur from heat in our area year in and year out than cold.  Yet, there are seldom media pieces about it.  Why?  Because it's not a story.  Heat in the south is boring.  Cold in Fargo is boring but bring Fargo to Texas and that's extremely exciting.  Add in some power problems and it becomes sensational.

I know something about Fargo.  Got some relatives from there and they typically get one or more of these storms called blizzards and sometimes they create power issues and leave people without power in extremely cold temperatures.  We don't hear about those, though.

My thought is this... if I'm going to trust you, I want your highest value to be pursuing and dissimnsting truth.  Any other agendas can't be trusted.

Now, if you get your snow forecast from the Dyer-Mempho News Network (DMNN), you should know the fine print- our agenda is snow and getting enough people to believe in snow as possible... Because we believe that perception is reality (and maybe it actually is).  If a model supports our agenda, we post it.  If a model does not support our agenda, it's garbage. 

Perception is reality.  We get you to believe until it actually happens.  Some undoubtedly come along and doubt our workings as coincidence or luck over the years. Even if they were right (and they are not), wasn't your life happier when you did believe in Santa?

What we really sell is happiness   

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on February 18, 2021, 10:29:31 PM
With the exception of a light dusting and a minor icing event earlier in the year, this past week has been all of our winter weather here in Montgomery County. Our totals to date are right at 6 inches of snow and a good 1.5 inches of sleet for the year. I know our average here used to be 9. Not sure if it is still that, but if you can count sleet toward you snow total we are getting close to the yearly average. But this has been a great week of winter weather and by far a better winter than the previous 2 years. ::snowman::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: tntwilight on February 18, 2021, 10:49:26 PM
I could get used to this. We need more winters like this here. Snow and cold doesn't bother me.
I agree.  I think I could live somewhere like Denver or Durango, CO. 

I took a long walk around 9PM with snow cover on the ground and it was the most at peace I have been in a long time. I couldn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 19, 2021, 01:36:42 AM
This last week has been truly a roller coaster but ended perfectly.  Went sledding today as the snow poured down.  My kids are still in shock with how much snow there is. They have never seen this much snow. I measured in the yard and it was slightly over 6
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 19, 2021, 07:09:49 AM
Decided to total everything up so far, I've made it over a foot! Total of 12.1 inches.  Remember southern middle got lucky a couple of times back earlier in January to help out.

11/30 .3"
1/7     1.5"
1/11   1.5"
1/16   .1"
2/1     .2"
2/7     2"
2/15  1.7" Sleet/fzrn
2/16   .5"
2/17   4.3"

I use a snowboard following the instructions from the NWS to try and keep it official. The snowboard can help on those minor events that most don't even bother to measure. It can also hurt your totals compared to a lawn measurement on a cold ground snow event.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2021, 08:27:29 AM
Just an observation...i realize now how much it takes to get a double digit snow from one system.

That was a HUGE precip shield with some heavy returns but to my knowledge it was at most a 5-6 type event ( i got 5) .

So even with moderate to heavy returns the system needs to be a lot slower than what we had to get a double digit event...OR be incredibly heavy at 2-3 inch an hour rates which is rare even in a nor'easter.

As is the case with most of our snows, we get into a dry slot after about 5-6 hours and did not get the real west side wrap around so that always hurts our final tally as well
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 19, 2021, 08:53:59 AM
Just an observation...i realize now how much it takes to get a double digit snow from one system.

That was a HUGE precip shield with some heavy returns but to my knowledge it was at most a 5-6 type event ( i got 5) .

So even with moderate to heavy returns the system needs to be a lot slower than what we had to get a double digit event...OR be incredibly heavy at 2-3 inch an hour rates which is rare even in a nor'easter.

As is the case with most of our snows, we get into a dry slot after about 5-6 hours and did not get the real west side wrap around so that always hurts our final tally as well

You guys further south were closer to the good stuff. Up here the heavy rates came in waves. Off and on. To get a good 6-8" snow you need to be in some heavy rates for a couple of hours. That is what stuck out to me way back in 2003. I had never seen it snow like that. Just heavy heavy rates for a few hours. Same when I went out west skiing and got 2 feet over a few snows throughout the week I was there. Just heavy rates for hours. Almost hard to believe until you see it.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rocket41 on February 19, 2021, 09:41:00 AM
Looks like next Friday has potential.  GFS is a little too warm, but the EURO looks interesting for at least for the northern half of middle and east Tennessee.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 19, 2021, 09:48:32 AM
Looks like next Friday has potential.  GFS is a little too warm, but the EURO looks interesting for at least for the northern half of middle and east Tennessee.
I saw that. I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 19, 2021, 09:59:50 AM
Looking ahead at TWC 10-day (which is just a cheap way to get a sense of general model output), it looks like we wrap up the final few days of the month with seasonably mildish/coolish but wet weather... 50s and somewhat rainy it appears -not anything that gets me particularly excited in one direction or the other.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Navywxman on February 19, 2021, 10:04:44 AM
Looking ahead at TWC 10-day (which is just a cheap way to get a sense of general model output), it looks like we wrap up the final few days of the month with seasonably mildish/coolish but wet weather... 50s and somewhat rainy it appears -not anything that gets me particularly excited in one direction or the other.
It commences the great thaw, so that's about it. Now the flooding threat because of cold, dormant, saturated ground is going to be an issue.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2021, 10:05:24 AM
Looks like next Friday has potential.  GFS is a little too warm, but the EURO looks interesting for at least for the northern half of middle and east Tennessee.

If that thing tracked a bit farther south it would be another snowstorm, idk that i want another one so soon LOL
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rocket41 on February 19, 2021, 10:09:13 AM
If that thing tracked a bit farther south it would be another snowstorm, idk that i want another one so soon LOL
Me either.  I think I'm done for this year.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 19, 2021, 10:13:01 AM
Bring on as many more storms as Winter will allow. I will be traveling a lot so it is a sure bet the everyone gets blasted with 6 feet of snow in March.....
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 19, 2021, 10:39:29 AM
Bring on as many more storms as Winter will allow. I will be traveling a lot so it is a sure bet the everyone gets blasted with 6 feet of snow in March.....

That's the one we're waiting on and everyone is eager for.  The polar vortex- when it comes- usually pays a return visit.  In the post-2020 world, you know it'll pay a return visit between between now and the third week in March.

Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 19, 2021, 10:41:10 AM
Me either.  I think I'm done for this year.
the trend will be way north of here, as models start amping the se ridge up
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 19, 2021, 10:41:23 AM
I doubt we've seen the last of winter.  March is a volatile month with big swings in temps, and very active weather before the polar jet starts it's retreat northward. Old Man Winter seems to have some muscle this year, and probably more able to put up a decent fight.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 19, 2021, 10:48:08 AM
Memphis International Airport has closed and there will be no passenger flights today.

Apparently, the people who build the water systems were completely ignorant regarding weather history or they just ignored a number of years in Memphis weather history.  This is a man-made failure born out of ignorance.  Our water systems today seemed to be designed without regard to any of the following time spans:

-January 1985
-Many winters in the 1960s (how about 13 BELOW in 63)
-Just pick a year in the 1800s

So, when you build infrastructure, it's built to last a loonngggg time and, therefore, you build it to actually withstand the extremes...so, it should easily be build to handle a 100 or even 200 year event because, if it's 30 year infrastructure (typical), a 200 year occurence is still a 14% chance.  You don't build your home to only have an 86% chance of surviving for the next 30 years but, apparently- it's okay to design infrastructure that way. 

Actually, it's not.  This is where you pay attention to your city.  Cronyism, bribery, lowest bidder contracts, lack of oversight, etc.  These are the results.  The ones who designed it were either a) incompetent or b) knew it wouldn't last.  They were blessed with decades of mostly good temps and now the inadequacy of their work is being exposed. 

Don't blame the weather.  Be thankful this is happening.  This is all being exposed for the people to see. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 19, 2021, 11:10:55 AM
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 19, 2021, 11:22:42 AM
...or if you heat with natural gas.

(https://pa1.narvii.com/7689/b73299b089859f0531f75c82d4744971a0db0cecr1-480-406_hq.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 19, 2021, 11:40:52 AM
Memphis International Airport has closed and there will be no passenger flights today.

Apparently, the people who build the water systems were completely ignorant regarding weather history or they just ignored a number of years in Memphis weather history.  This is a man-made failure born out of ignorance.  Our water systems today seemed to be designed without regard to any of the following time spans:

-January 1985
-Many winters in the 1960s (how about 13 BELOW in 63)
-Just pick a year in the 1800s

So, when you build infrastructure, it's built to last a loonngggg time and, therefore, you build it to actually withstand the extremes...so, it should easily be build to handle a 100 or even 200 year event because, if it's 30 year infrastructure (typical), a 200 year occurence is still a 14% chance.  You don't build your home to only have an 86% chance of surviving for the next 30 years but, apparently- it's okay to design infrastructure that way. 

Actually, it's not.  This is where you pay attention to your city.  Cronyism, bribery, lowest bidder contracts, lack of oversight, etc.  These are the results.  The ones who designed it were either a) incompetent or b) knew it wouldn't last.  They were blessed with decades of mostly good temps and now the inadequacy of their work is being exposed. 

Don't blame the weather.  Be thankful this is happening.  This is all being exposed for the people to see. 

I see the core problem as avarice.  For this and the problems in Texas. Cheap shortcuts taken and lack of winterization and preparation because it improved the bottom line and temporary profits for some.  Money wasn't spent where it needed to be, so it ended up where it didn't belong--the pockets of a few.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 19, 2021, 01:56:49 PM
12z Euro, 12z GFS, 12z Canadian all say to look at Thursday/Friday next week... Especially if you're in the northwest part of the state right now

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 19, 2021, 02:56:22 PM
The southeast ridge has pretty ended any winter weather in northeast Tennessee this year. Hopefully it does not do the same next winter


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 19, 2021, 03:03:55 PM
Memphis will tie the all-time record for 9 consecutive days below freezing today. The city dropped below freezing on Wednesday, 2/10/2021 and amazingly hasn
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 19, 2021, 03:08:34 PM
The southeast ridge has pretty ended any winter weather in northeast Tennessee this year. Hopefully it does not do the same next winter


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thank mr .La Ni
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 19, 2021, 04:52:22 PM
It was surprising we actually got the snow we did in Johnson City this year with 20 inches. Every time it got just cold enough we scored with some snow. This last ridge that started about February 9th has been amazing since we have only been below 32 one night since and Memphis goes 9 straight days not getting above 32


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 19, 2021, 04:53:52 PM
Is a neutral winter with the MJO in phase 8 the best for winter weather in Tennessee


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 19, 2021, 05:00:12 PM
I'm guessing nobody has looked at the 18z GFS? Takes the storm I mentioned earlier a little more south. Chattanooga gets thumped

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 19, 2021, 05:07:15 PM
I'm guessing nobody has looked at the 18z GFS? Takes the storm I mentioned earlier a little more south. Chattanooga gets thumped

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saw that, it phases little to late for us, then crushes our north carolina friends too lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Jeremy on February 19, 2021, 05:09:29 PM
saw that, it phases little to late for us, then crushes our north carolina friends too lol
Just in time for that westward shift

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 19, 2021, 05:24:31 PM
From about the 27th through March 7th it actually looks pretty cold for the east on the most recent GFS. Either the SE Ridge breaks down some or this run is way off


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 19, 2021, 05:44:29 PM
I see the core problem as avarice.  For this and the problems in Texas. Cheap shortcuts taken and lack of winterization and preparation because it improved the bottom line and temporary profits for some.  Money wasn't spent where it needed to be, so it ended up where it didn't belong--the pockets of a few.
That's exactly it, IMO.  We have a sufficiently long weather record which proves these events happen with a certain regularity. 

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 19, 2021, 05:46:35 PM
IT'S NOT OVER PEOPLE.... LOOK UP IN CANADA! (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210219/0b426be98b9ed62d64990164e33fb931.jpg)

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 19, 2021, 05:53:37 PM
IT'S NOT OVER PEOPLE.... LOOK UP IN CANADA!

Driveway is clear and ready for another. I'm hopeful.

When it is 95 and humid in August, we'll all be wishing for this.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 19, 2021, 06:32:12 PM
Driveway is clear and ready for another. I'm hopeful.

When it is 95 and humid in August, we'll all be wishing for this.
Agreed....... But only one lane is cleared on my driveway

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Michael on February 19, 2021, 06:32:26 PM
Ok. East Tn got completely shafted the past week. So, at 7 days out...what could go wrong?
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210220/f3d2bda6b994d72fe397a150fb6cdc7d.jpg)


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 19, 2021, 06:47:08 PM
We know that is a pipe dream because I don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 19, 2021, 11:31:50 PM
We know that is a pipe dream because I don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 19, 2021, 11:43:11 PM
We'll see- the MJO might go to the neutral zone for a few days, so at least you won't have a stout Phase 5 or 6 to fight.

(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 20, 2021, 06:40:54 AM
HRRR and RGEM kicked the NAMs rear end on lows this morning in middle and west TN. Lots of single digits across the area in the lower lying areas. The NAMS had most of middle TN in the upper teens.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 20, 2021, 07:21:42 AM
4 degrees here this morning.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 20, 2021, 08:23:14 AM
4 degrees here this morning.
4 was my low also ... snow cover for the win
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 20, 2021, 08:23:29 AM
4 degrees here this morning.

So glad you're getting some quality Arctic air. Your end of the state was shut out of everything until this past week.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 20, 2021, 08:50:55 AM
It may not snow another flake this winter, and I'm happy. Anything else is bonus at this point. We walked around the neighborhood last night to see people's snow work. Creative snowmen, and even forts and igloos (partial).

At the same time, I try to be sensitive to our folks in southeast TN (i.e. Chattanooga, etc.). They've truly been shut out this winter. I'm pulling for that area.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: pirates1 on February 20, 2021, 11:00:11 AM
I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on February 20, 2021, 11:02:24 AM
You guys definitely got the short end of the stick on everything this winter. I would be so jaded. The pattern in December for East Tennessee never worked out for Chattanooga, and later on, the Nina-enhanced SER locked you out of air cold enough for snow.

All I can say is winter is not over, and we all know it can snow in Chattanooga in March. But I completely understand how you feel, and wouldn't blame you at all if you wanted to trade any chances of winter weather for warm spring days. Combined with the Easter Sunday tornado last year, you guys have really been bent over by Mother Nature. Time for a big snow down there that doesn't vanish in a few hours.

Saw today that Nashville had 7 days below freezing this past week. Chattanooga had zero. That is some very rare stuff for Arctic air to be stuck like that so very close, but never quite getting over the Plateau. We had 2 nights at 21, and a 2 hour round of moderate sleet at 33 degrees. No white ground.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 20, 2021, 11:50:40 AM
I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 20, 2021, 05:27:25 PM
Between two sunny days this weekend, with a few hours above freezing today and even warmer (in the 50s) tomorrow plus rain on Sunday night, that should go a long way toward taking care of most of the ice and snow on the roads, I would think. However, it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Crockett on February 21, 2021, 12:06:00 PM

EDIT- in the post-pandemic age, I would assume virtual classroom options could be a factor in school system decisions- but, I don
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 21, 2021, 01:11:27 PM
Today is the 8th consecutive day of snow cover in Memphis.



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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 21, 2021, 01:50:04 PM
This surprised me...

Quote
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
305 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021

...5th Longest Period of Below Freezing Temperatures at
Nashville...

Temperatures at Nashville fell below freezing on the evening of
Thursday, February 11th, and remained below freezing for over 7
days until rising above 32 degrees on the afternoon of Friday,
February 19. This ties for the 5th longest stretch of consecutive
days with below freezing temperatures on record at Nashville.
This is also the longest period of below freezing temperatures in
43 years.

Top 10 Longest Periods Below Freezing at Nashville

1.  February 6-14, 1899             9 Days
2.  December 26-January 3, 1877     9 Days
3.  January 15-22, 1918             8 Days
4.  February 8-15, 1895             8 Days
5.  February 12-18, 2021            7 Days
6.  January 9-15, 1978              7 Days
7.  January 23-29, 1948             7 Days
8.  January 4-10, 1942              7 Days
9.  December 9-15, 1917             7 Days
10. December 15-21, 1901            7 Days

Weather records for Nashville began in 1871.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 21, 2021, 03:39:09 PM
This surprised me...

Impressive.  It even matched the historic winter of '78.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 21, 2021, 03:56:35 PM
Impressive.  It even matched the historic winter of '78.

What shocked me... when we think of the historic winter stretches of old in these parts... 1951, all those snowy winters in the 1960s and late 1970s, 1985, etc.- none of those years featured a stretch of sub freezing temperatures that lasted as long as what we just came out of. I was about sure I remembered stretches like that in my life. Guess not.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 21, 2021, 04:14:09 PM
Johnson City only got below freezing 1 time at night during that stretch when middle and West Tennessee were setting records for number of days with snow cover and staying below freezing.  That is the bizarre thing. Not that you were colder but the number of consecutive days plus as much as 40 degrees different many of those days


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 21, 2021, 04:58:43 PM
Pretty amazing just couple days or so ago we were sitting near 0 . Today 57 for a high . Remarkable recovery .
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 21, 2021, 07:30:19 PM
I
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: wmp600 on February 21, 2021, 07:46:23 PM
Pretty amazing just couple days or so ago we were sitting near 0 . Today 57 for a high . Remarkable recovery .
It is amazing. It felt great today. I actually had the windows up in the house & down in the car.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 21, 2021, 09:48:55 PM
As I'm sure the Williamson County school teacher that asked is aware- schools are closed in that system tomorrow. Even with today's spring-like weather (and those sunny 50s sure did feel spring-like), neighborhood streets (at least around Nolensville) still had a fair amount of slush, although it was melting fast by late this afternoon.

Sure enough, as we were discussing earlier, I'm noticing the school report scroll on TV has some schools as "virtual learning day" or "remote learning day" tomorrow. I suspect that's going to be a new term in the lexicon from here on. For the kids' sake, I hope "snow day" school closings continue to be a thing. But, depending on the system or county's capabilities, virtual learning is certainly a new option in a lot of cases. Maybe, this is a good thing that saves some throwaway of snow days or the logistics of delayed openings because of patchy ice on rural roads.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: TNHunter on February 21, 2021, 10:09:22 PM
We are out in Dyersburg again also. 12.5 day vacation
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 22, 2021, 03:46:48 AM
As I'm sure the Williamson County school teacher that asked is aware- schools are closed in that system tomorrow. Even with today's spring-like weather (and those sunny 50s sure did feel spring-like), neighborhood streets (at least around Nolensville) still had a fair amount of slush, although it was melting fast by late this afternoon.

Sure enough, as we were discussing earlier, I'm noticing the school report scroll on TV has some schools as "virtual learning day" or "remote learning day" tomorrow. I suspect that's going to be a new term in the lexicon from here on. For the kids' sake, I hope "snow day" school closings continue to be a thing. But, depending on the system or county's capabilities, virtual learning is certainly a new option in a lot of cases. Maybe, this is a good thing that saves some throwaway of snow days or the logistics of delayed openings because of patchy ice on rural roads.

As a said previously I wonder how that might play out during severe weather season.  Now that is an option, would we see a lot more virtual learning days on severe weather days?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 22, 2021, 04:39:14 AM
As I'm sure the Williamson County school teacher that asked is aware- schools are closed in that system tomorrow. Even with today's spring-like weather (and those sunny 50s sure did feel spring-like), neighborhood streets (at least around Nolensville) still had a fair amount of slush, although it was melting fast by late this afternoon.

Sure enough, as we were discussing earlier, I'm noticing the school report scroll on TV has some schools as "virtual learning day" or "remote learning day" tomorrow. I suspect that's going to be a new term in the lexicon from here on. For the kids' sake, I hope "snow day" school closings continue to be a thing. But, depending on the system or county's capabilities, virtual learning is certainly a new option in a lot of cases. Maybe, this is a good thing that saves some throwaway of snow days or the logistics of delayed openings because of patchy ice on rural roads.
The massive societal changes this alone could cause are unbelievable alone. 

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 22, 2021, 07:16:24 AM
As a said previously I wonder how that might play out during severe weather season.  Now that is an option, would we see a lot more virtual learning days on severe weather days?

I suspect so.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 22, 2021, 08:10:46 AM
Had a legit squall come through this morning.  Intense wind and heavy rain that was being blown sideways.  Power blinked a few times.  The wind had calmed down a bit, but heavy rain continues behind the squall.  A super soaker of a front coming through this morning. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 22, 2021, 08:50:39 AM
In Johnson City we have had heavy rain and very strong winds the past hour. They are showing rain here 12 of the next 15 days. I suspect the ridge will continue to block fronts and they will hang up and never cross the mountain. Not a fun pattern for us to be stuck in for the foreseeable future


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on February 22, 2021, 09:06:54 AM
We'll be headed to Middle TN this weekend to help clean up downed trees on my parents' farm from the winter storms of the past week. Looking at the upcoming weather I wonder how much more tree damage we can expect across Tennessee with saturated soil, winds, and trees leafing out and getting more vulnerable to storm damage. This is looking like another spring where the kayaks may come in handy on city streets!
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: bugalou on February 22, 2021, 10:58:38 AM
Welp the snow is mostly gone. That was fast for having almost 10 inches on the ground. and below freezing Saturday morning. I guess its good, I can get my mail today.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 22, 2021, 11:14:22 AM
Welp the snow is mostly gone. That was fast for having almost 10 inches on the ground. and below freezing Saturday morning. I guess its good, I can get my mail today.

That February sun angle  ::blowtorch:: and sixty degree weather. Mmm, mmm, good!

Yesterday was the first time I went running in the snow in 50 degree weather. It was kind of like running on sand.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 22, 2021, 11:39:59 AM
Pretty amazing just couple days or so ago we were sitting near 0 . Today 57 for a high . Remarkable recovery .

Like I said a few weeks back, this time of year is the time where weather is the most dynamic in our climate. We can have snowstorms, severe weather, subfreezing temperatures, sunshine and seventy degrees all in the same week.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 22, 2021, 12:38:17 PM
March winds starting a little early this year.  With the sun breaking out and temps in the 50s, it feels like a typical breezy March day.   Now if I only had a kite.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Crockett on February 22, 2021, 01:08:21 PM
March winds starting a little early this year.  With the sun breaking out and temps in the 50s, it feels like a typical breezy March day.   Now if I only had a kite.

I ordinarily hate wind. I guess it's my animal instinct. Wind bothers me more than any other type of weather. But I'm loving it today (and Wednesday, which should be breezy also). I'll take all the wind I can get to help the sun dry up some of this mud! It's been a long time since we had back-to-back-to-back winter storms like we had this month and I forgot just how much mud results from all of that freezing/thawing and wintry precipitation.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Crockett on February 22, 2021, 01:09:46 PM
The NWS officially recorded 8.9" of snow in Oneida, making it the northern plateau's snowiest February in 15 years and the single snowiest month in 5 years. (Those totals are underdone; most areas received more like 14-16", but the 8.9" is what'll go down in the record books.)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 22, 2021, 01:31:06 PM
With no snow in the forecast before the end of meteorological winter, it looks like I'll close this one with around 9" total.  6" of heavy, wet snow fell on Christmas eve & morning. Power outages were widespread across Sevier Co. because of that one, and the bent pine and cedar trees in the yard are a constant reminder.  I had an inch earlier in December, and 2 inches later in the winter before the pattern flipped, and several dustings here and there in January.  Most snow I've seen in a winter since 2015. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 23, 2021, 01:36:03 PM
Germantown recoded the lowest temp in the state on week ago today at -5F. Today it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 23, 2021, 02:47:47 PM
Germantown recoded the lowest temp in the state on week ago today at -5F. Today it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 23, 2021, 03:01:15 PM
This winter will finish with a B+ IMBY. Pretty satisfying after years of disappointment. I have no complaints. 3" in January followed by a week of ice, 1" sleet, and 3-4" of snow in February is the best winter I have witnessed since 2010-2011.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 23, 2021, 03:14:37 PM
and some people question the ability to recover the arctic air mass for severe weather. Lol

There's a whole lot more to a severe weather setup than just the ability to reach 70 degrees a few days after a cold snap.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 23, 2021, 03:16:02 PM
There's a whole lot more to a severe weather setup than just the ability to reach 70 degrees a few days after a cold snap.
think I know yess. But that
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 23, 2021, 03:16:39 PM
think I know yess. But that
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 23, 2021, 03:16:53 PM
I will say it's mind-blowing what a difference a few days will make. It's hard to believe that just a few very short days ago, we were walking through ice and snow and bundling up. Now, you'd never know it with today's temperatures, other than a few residual piles of snow in shady spots.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 23, 2021, 04:14:22 PM
I have no complaints about a day as nice as today.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 23, 2021, 04:25:26 PM
OHX starting to pay attention to flooding concerns this weekend... 3-5" of rainfall over a few days, which they point out as "manageable." Some model runs are leaning towards figures more like 5-7", but OHX is undercutting that a bit for now. It looks like it's going to be soggy though, especially adding this on top of the snowmelt.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 23, 2021, 06:29:45 PM
and some people question the ability to recover the arctic air mass for severe weather. Lol
All it takes is a south wind.  I remember people saying the Gulf might not recover in 2011 for severe season...

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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 23, 2021, 06:30:26 PM
One round of very wet weather is normal for any Spring where we live.  It's when you have one round followed by multiple others that a problem results.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 23, 2021, 08:44:46 PM
I think the ridge if it
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on February 24, 2021, 06:51:59 AM
I'm looking forward to a beautiful spring day today before we settle into the pattern of rain, rain, and then some more rain ::drowning:: for several days. Sunshine and warm weather is a welcome bonus this time of year and I hope everybody has a chance to get out and enjoy it a bit.  ::yum::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 24, 2021, 10:13:49 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210224/1665761667bc03c38094e3db43a566b6.jpg)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210224/9cbf7e0ab286dc170d828211197b21b6.jpg)

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210224/36be96392f271448e1b529aa1589f5e3.jpg)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 24, 2021, 10:21:23 AM
F Arkansas


That is all  :)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 24, 2021, 11:41:07 AM
Just when we thought winter was done, look! Another 4-6" between now and next week!

(http://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image27.png)

Oh... wait- that's rainfall, sorry.   ::wow::  ::drowning:: ::cliff::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 24, 2021, 11:46:05 AM
Just when we thought winter was done, look! Another 4-6" between now and next week!

(http://www.weather.gov/images/ohx/graphicast/image27.png)

Oh... wait- that's rainfall, sorry.   ::wow::  ::drowning:: ::cliff::
lol
Almost fell for that lol...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 24, 2021, 11:56:27 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EvAG9RCXcAIINAn?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JHart on February 24, 2021, 01:51:48 PM
F Arkansas


That is all  :)
I'm from Farnkansas and was conceived in one of its rare but humongous snows.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 24, 2021, 02:30:38 PM
Was actually able to open the windows and let some fresh air blow through the house.  Nice.

Tomorrow won't be an open window day.  It may be a long time before it happens again.  Rain sets in Friday, and Saturday, and Sunday, and Monday...
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 24, 2021, 02:53:37 PM
 ::drowning::
Was actually able to open the windows and let some fresh air blow through the house.  Nice.

Tomorrow won't be an open window day.  It may be a long time before it happens again.  Rain sets in Friday, and Saturday, and Sunday, and Monday...
  ::drowning::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 24, 2021, 03:48:55 PM
See-saw temperatures the next few days.  72 today.  58 tomorrow.  48 Friday, then back into the 60's over the weekend.  Typical late winter/early spring weather in Tennessee. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clay on February 24, 2021, 07:21:18 PM
It's comical seeing mounds of sleet still melting a week later after rainfall and 2 days of 70+ degree weather. Even saw a few patches of raw accumulation not even piles as I was sweating outside today! 

Sleet. Has. Dat. Staying Power.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 24, 2021, 07:41:12 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EvAG9RCXcAIINAn?format=jpg&name=900x900)

That there says flash flooding likely. Unless over several days.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 24, 2021, 07:47:07 PM
That there says flash flooding likely. Unless over several days.

Plenty of water heading this way. 

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1614217512)
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Coach B on February 24, 2021, 08:49:12 PM
Even saw a few patches of raw accumulation not even piles as I was sweating outside today! 

Sleet. Has. Dat. Staying Power.

I noticed the same thing on the way home this evening. Pretty amazing what the combo of a solidly cold ground, deep sleet, and a nice snowpack can do.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 25, 2021, 11:50:06 AM
I didn't hear about this:

https://www.wrcbtv.com/story/43368299/child-dies-after-sledding-accident-in-brentwood
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 26, 2021, 12:55:51 PM
Let's all point and laugh at The Weather Channel for this:

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2021-01-20-february-temperature-outlook-2021
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 26, 2021, 01:58:57 PM
Ouch. big time #fail
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 26, 2021, 02:25:55 PM
Let's all point and laugh at The Weather Channel for this:

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2021-01-20-february-temperature-outlook-2021
there just bout month late ... lol
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 26, 2021, 02:55:22 PM
Been a dark, cold rainy day stuck in the mid 40's on the east side of the state.  Spring rebounds over the weekend with 60's and even a 73 on Sunday.  Warm front for the win.  I can handle a rainy day if it's warm. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 26, 2021, 05:25:32 PM
KMEM looks to end Feb 10F BN which may not have happened since the 60's or 70's. Need to take a look.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 26, 2021, 07:37:57 PM
KMEM looks to end Feb 10F BN which may not have happened since the 60's or 70's. Need to take a look.

Pretty amazing. What is the mean temp for Memphis in February? 40-45 F?

I think KBNA's mean for Feb (based on '81-'10) is about 42 degrees F.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 26, 2021, 07:49:52 PM
Its going to snow again and everyone is going to have to like it. Forecast of the week ::flag:: ::fingerscrossed::
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 26, 2021, 09:53:31 PM
Pretty amazing. What is the mean temp for Memphis in February? 40-45 F?

I think KBNA's mean for Feb (based on '81-'10) is about 42 degrees F.
Current average at KMEM is 34.5 which is the 4th coldest February as of today. Probably will lose another 0.2-0.4 to end up around 35. That will come close to tying for 5th with 1978 and 1902. 6th coldest is 36 in 2015.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Clint on February 26, 2021, 10:43:34 PM
Thanks Curt for gathering this data. It's quite possible this could be the coldest February dating back over a half century or longer in Memphis. It will at least be the coldest February since 1978, which is impressive.

Do you know which years recorded the the top 4 coldest February's?
Title: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 27, 2021, 07:40:21 AM
Thanks Curt for gathering this data. It's quite possible this could be the coldest February dating back over a half century or longer in Memphis. It will at least be the coldest February since 1978, which is impressive.

Do you know which years recorded the the top 4 coldest February's?
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210227/75a68b7713565317d636b85c2c0e12ce.jpg)

As of today the average has risen to 35.0 so it’s now in 6th place for coldest Feb. Depending on today and tomorrow it might go to number 7, but most likely will still rival 2015 which was the coldest last 15 days of February on record. So we did live through history indeed as those 10 days below freezing themselves- were the coldest on record.

Will we see more of these types of outbreaks? Def possible as the PDO has clearly gone negative which favors northern cold during winter which can spill out into our area. That positive AMO- once it flips- will be a similar period to the 1960’s- 1980’s as far as negative PDO and AMO. Those years were generally much colder in the winter time. It’s quite easy to track.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 27, 2021, 09:17:00 AM
The 1899 North American cold snap was crazy cold.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: rkhvoljohnsoncity on February 27, 2021, 12:15:15 PM
This is wild in the same state. Johnson City I am sure was above average for the month while Memphis was 10 degrees below average. Crazy patterns to say the least


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Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 27, 2021, 03:54:25 PM
Man-made state boundaries mean little in the world of weather.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2021, 04:48:07 PM
Fun fact- the northeast tip of the state is closer to the Canadian border than it is to Memphis.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: jwr2914 on February 27, 2021, 05:16:19 PM
From snow and ice to heavy downpours and thunder with mixed lightning. It is amazing what a week can do.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 27, 2021, 05:41:25 PM
Fun fact- the northeast tip of the state is closer to the Canadian border than it is to Memphis.

Just like the MO/Arkansas border in the Missouri Boothill has the same latitude as Nashville. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 27, 2021, 05:54:34 PM
Just like the MO/Arkansas border in the Missouri Boothill has the same latitude as Nashville.

That sounds about right, since the TN state line goes pretty well straight due west, and the MO boot hill dips down and sits right across the river from NW TN.

But, the idea that one spot in TN is closer to Canada than the other end of the state is what I think a lot of people would find fairly surprising.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: Curt on February 27, 2021, 06:41:37 PM
That sounds about right, since the TN state line goes pretty well straight due west, and the MO boot hill dips down and sits right across the river from NW TN.

But, the idea that one spot in TN is closer to Canada than the other end of the state is what I think a lot of people would find fairly surprising.
Memphis is closer to the Texas panhandle than to Mountain City.
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 27, 2021, 06:50:58 PM
That sounds about right, since the TN state line goes pretty well straight due west, and the MO boot hill dips down and sits right across the river from NW TN.

But, the idea that one spot in TN is closer to Canada than the other end of the state is what I think a lot of people would find fairly surprising.

Another one that is interesting is that Murphy, NC in the far SW corner of the state (covered by Morristown CWA by the way) is closer to either 6 or 7 other state capital cities than it is to Raleigh its capital city.   
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 27, 2021, 06:53:32 PM
The warmth is causing Paducah and Bowling Green to drop out of the Top 10 coldest February's but here is the crazy part.

If it wasn't for those 3 weeks in February Western/Central KY and adjacent parts of TN would finish this winter about 3 to 4 degrees above average (similar to 2018-19), but since that intense 3-week cold snap happened, they now will probably finish just about -0.5F to -1F for the winter.

The departure map for this winter is going to look funky with well above average along the West Coast, Northeast, Northern Plains, and a random blob of below average across the mid-section.         
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 28, 2021, 02:18:40 PM
Been a beautiful end to February here today.  Clouds have increased now, but still warm with the windows open.  75F in the late afternoon.

March about here.  Winter is packing it's bags, and leaving soon.  Still here for now, but it's setting it's sights on a cool vacay in the Southern Hemisphere. 
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 28, 2021, 09:24:33 PM
Another one that is interesting is that Murphy, NC in the far SW corner of the state (covered by Morristown CWA by the way) is closer to either 6 or 7 other state capital cities than it is to Raleigh its capital city.

Wow, that's crazy. Guessing Nashville, Atlanta, Columbia, Montgomery, Lexington and maybe Tallahassee or Charleston, WV?
Title: Re: February 2021
Post by: mempho on February 28, 2021, 10:18:14 PM
Fun fact- the northeast tip of the state is closer to the Canadian border than it is to Memphis.
That's interesting but not all that surprising.  People are surprised sometimes to find out that Chicago is an 8 hour drive from Memphis.  We live in close relatively close proximity to some very cold regions but we are also slightly closer to the Gulf than those extremely cold areas.

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