Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Monthly Discussions and General Weather => Topic started by: Curt on October 27, 2021, 02:31:23 PM

Title: November 2021
Post by: Curt on October 27, 2021, 02:31:23 PM
Looks like the first statewide freeze coming up in about a week. Fire away.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on October 27, 2021, 02:49:37 PM
That would be right around on schedule.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: snowdog on October 29, 2021, 08:16:10 AM
Looks like the first statewide freeze coming up in about a week. Fire away.

Sounds good. Mow the yard on last time this weekend...and settle in for winter.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Preds1998 on October 29, 2021, 11:23:17 AM
Quote
This front will continue pushing south throughout the week, but on
Wednesday an incoming upper trough will spread a few showers in
behind. Ultimately a weak SFC/LL high will be in place, and it will
hold into the weekend. Thus rainfall will be minimal through
Friday...with SVR weather really non-existent. Medium range fairly
consistent bringing much colder air down late next week as well.
Right now a light wintry mix over parts of the area possible but
it is still in wait and see mode.

There is a more potent system getting cranked up across the nations
mid-section late week but it will be late weekend before we see any
affects from it.

OHX talking possible wintry mix late next week for some. Just a sign of the times..
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 01, 2021, 08:03:45 AM
No mention of this? Y'all are slipping.  ;D

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021110106/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51.png)
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 01, 2021, 06:38:26 PM
Models appear to be backing off on the widespread freeze once looked to take place later this week . Still frost looks feasible still. Long range models starting warm up things ever so slightly for November standards at least . Approaching 70 perhaps for high down the road  :)
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 02, 2021, 08:38:55 AM
In the mean time, some frost and freeze advisories are going up and include some parts of the state.

Bruce, getting back up to 70 at some point this month should be expected. We still have "Indian Summer" to come (not sure if that phrase is kosher or not anymore- oh well).

We also still have secondary severe weather season, which doesn't always come to fruition. But, that would accompany a warm section if it happened anyway.

In the shorter term, Friday night looks like the coldest night upcoming. BNA is showing a low of 33... so, certainly some areas could likely see a freeze.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 02, 2021, 08:40:53 AM
In the mean time, some frost and freeze advisories are going up and include some parts of the state.

Bruce, getting back up to 70 at some point this month should be expected. We still have "Indian Summer" to come (not sure if that phrase is kosher or not anymore- oh well).

We also still have secondary severe weather season, which doesn't always come to fruition. But, that would accompany a warm section if it happened anyway.

In the shorter term, Friday night looks like the coldest night upcoming. BNA is showing a low of 33... so, certainly some areas could likely see a freeze.
just talking about the weather boss :blank: nothing wrong with little weather talk. You pretty much need get down into mid to upper 20s for a good freeze… not saying some areas won’t get below 32 mark , but nothing widespread like modeled few days ago
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 02, 2021, 08:59:42 AM
Yeah- light freeze for some areas, at most, it looks like. I suspect some sheltered valleys in outlying areas will breach the upper 20s in coming nights, with clear skies and light winds.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Curt on November 02, 2021, 03:00:23 PM
Short term models get most of the area to at least freezing Thursday am, and a hard freeze for more on Friday am. Looks like the end of the growing season is here.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 02, 2021, 03:19:10 PM
Short term models get most of the area to at least freezing Thursday am, and a hard freeze for more on Friday am. Looks like the end of the growing season is here.
memphis in general still going have hard time even getting below freezing Along some other warmer places . Areas along Tennessee river stand best chance see decent freeze. After this cool snap looks to warm up nicely over next ten days or so . ::blowtorch::   If today’s 12z euro is close being correct , could be looking at our first true fall widespread severe wx event down the road  ::coffee::
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Matthew on November 02, 2021, 04:18:49 PM
Average high this time year is 67.  So looking at forecast it would appear we are going to be pretty close to seasonal then later next week another nice cold front knocking us down to 50’s.  My Kinda fall.  Not to warm and not to cold. 
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 02, 2021, 04:25:42 PM
Average high this time year is 67.  So looking at forecast it would appear we are going to be pretty close to seasonal then later next week another nice cold front knocking us down to 50’s.  My Kinda fall.  Not to warm and not to cold.
going get above your likes then appears  lol
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Curt on November 03, 2021, 08:19:00 AM
Got a little bit of sleet and a couple snow flakes mixed in this morning.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 03, 2021, 08:26:13 AM
Got a little bit of sleet and a couple snow flakes mixed in this morning.
could swore I just seen little bit sleet hour ago here myself . Working outside today … work.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 03, 2021, 12:49:46 PM
Got a little bit of sleet and a couple snow flakes mixed in this morning.

Awesome! Great to get the first taste of winter on the board in the mid-latitudes for the 1st week of November.

Had a graupel/rain mix right on the shores of Lake Ontario last night. Some areas inland got dusted.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Coach B on November 03, 2021, 01:54:10 PM

Had a graupel/rain mix right on the shores of Lake Ontario last night. Some areas inland got dusted.

Some favored spots getting the first nice snow of the season. Saw a report of 9" in Redfield, NY and 11" from Gaylord, MI!

https://twitter.com/CYerdon/status/1455917440249040902

https://twitter.com/NWSGaylord/status/1455720550697996291
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 03, 2021, 02:02:35 PM
Starting to get some model consensus of first true artic air coming down 10 days roughly … see how far it can get south
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Coach B on November 04, 2021, 07:02:10 AM
First one of the year from the 00Z GFS.  ::rofl::

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021110400/gfs_asnow_seus_47.png)
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 04, 2021, 07:58:29 AM
First one of the year from the 00Z GFS.  ::rofl::

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021110400/gfs_asnow_seus_47.png)
plenty of time for a western trend. 😂
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 04, 2021, 08:40:29 AM
Had a hard frost here in Dyer County, looks like another one tonight.  Growing season is officially done!
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: angrypug on November 04, 2021, 09:58:20 AM
First one of the year from the 00Z GFS.  ::rofl::

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021110400/gfs_asnow_seus_47.png)


Im right in the bullseye............ the absolute worst possible place to be 10+ days away  ::rofl::
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on November 04, 2021, 10:35:32 AM
Somebody's gonna get this one five feet deep  ::rofl::
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on November 04, 2021, 11:41:13 AM
First one of the year from the 00Z GFS.  ::rofl::

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021110400/gfs_asnow_seus_47.png)

Yes! my favorite time of year. And by time of year, I mean the time of year that I am always four to five days out from a good snow. Always. It just never comes. Except for when it does.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: joemomma on November 04, 2021, 01:03:52 PM
I'd buy that for a dollar.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 04, 2021, 11:31:03 PM
Just a little west trend here! ::rofl::  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: 82/83 El Nino baby on November 05, 2021, 09:16:50 AM
It got down to 28 on the plateau. A nice crisp morning.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 06, 2021, 11:05:37 AM
 ::snowman:: Lurking and awakening from the summer slumber....... Arrrroooooggggaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Curt on November 06, 2021, 05:21:59 PM
Time sensitive, but if you look closely at northeast Arkansas on the satellite, you can see the all the delta fields smoke from fall burning.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 07, 2021, 07:11:25 AM
Could that have been a migration of specklebellies, ducks, or possibly snows?
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 07, 2021, 08:01:01 AM
Moderation of temps this week to about 70 midweek. Next cold front late week may have us not getting out of the 40s for highs on Saturday.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 07, 2021, 08:16:49 AM
Moderation of temps this week to about 70 midweek. Next cold front late week may have us not getting out of the 40s for highs on Saturday.
the lows still not overly impressive with the next cold front even.  Progressive flow
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 07, 2021, 08:38:12 AM
Can’t complain about the last 4-5 days. We have had 4 hard frosts, have had to scrape windshield each morning to go hunt.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: ChrisPC on November 07, 2021, 09:40:13 AM
I’d love to be hunting in this weather. I saw an older doe slowly cross a 4-lane highway on my way to work yesterday. There were no cars, so it didn’t even run. 5-10 seconds later, a couple cars sped by.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 07, 2021, 11:40:23 AM
Word is we are finally in the negative side of the pdo… been awhile … that’s a step toward a more active weather pattern .
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Fred Gossage on November 07, 2021, 12:47:39 PM
Word is we are finally in the negative side of the pdo… been awhile … that’s a step toward a more active weather pattern .

The PDO has been in the negative phase technically (driven more by the warm blob that was across the Pacific than cooler waters in the Gulf of Alaska or the West Coast) non-stop since January of last year.  What we currently have, as of the October reading, is the strongest -PDO reading since the mid 1950s: -3.06 on the NCDC data and -2.45 on the CPC Ocean Briefing data (which seems to be closer to the Mantua method).  We are not just in a -PDO, but the latest reading is in the upper echelon of -PDO values.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 08, 2021, 11:36:43 AM
Liking these cheeper electric bills this far , though it’s early . But gfs long range says I can  keep  more of my money in my pocket   ::yum::
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 08, 2021, 12:12:08 PM
Cheeper...  ::rofl::

Good Lord, Bruce
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: gcbama on November 08, 2021, 07:22:53 PM
Cheeper...  ::rofl::

Good Lord, Bruce

even I have to laugh at this one :)
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: StormNine on November 08, 2021, 07:48:13 PM
I can already tell you that Hurricane Ridge, Mt Baker, and Stevens Pass are going to rock and roll this winter.   
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: TNHunter on November 11, 2021, 07:30:38 AM
Wow it is dead in here
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 11, 2021, 08:00:55 AM
Wow it is dead in here
because we are heading towards a block Buster winter man…  ::rofl:: lol.  Everyone Is resting up for it .
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 11, 2021, 08:39:59 AM
Fall foliage is about a peak here... this windy system is probably going to strip a lot of the leaves off.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Curt on November 11, 2021, 08:41:39 AM
Fall foliage is about a peak here... this windy system is probably going to strip a lot of the leaves off.
Foliage here went from 0 to 100 in less than a week. The cold mornings and mild afternoons did wonders. It’s a nice look on the commute.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 11, 2021, 08:45:59 AM
Foliage here went from 0 to 100 in less than a week. The cold mornings and mild afternoons did wonders. It’s a nice look on the commute.
foliage this fall has been pretty actually. Best colors I have seen  in years
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Crockett on November 11, 2021, 02:12:01 PM
Fall foliage is about a peak here... this windy system is probably going to strip a lot of the leaves off.

We're on the downhill side here on the plateau. Still some color but it's quickly raining down today with the wind.

I still can't get used to this new normal of having a lot of the foliage still on the trees almost 2 weeks into November.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 11, 2021, 03:32:31 PM
We're on the downhill side here on the plateau. Still some color but it's quickly raining down today with the wind.

I still can't get used to this new normal of having a lot of the foliage still on the trees almost 2 weeks into November.
all about the climate change . I remember when I was a little boy going trick or  treating. , all leaves would be off the trees .
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 11, 2021, 03:53:10 PM
Foliage has been weak up here. I wouldn't say it's any better than the rural Middle TN hills in a good year.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 12, 2021, 01:47:12 PM
First snowstorm of the season on tap for the northern Ohio Valley. Looking at Detroit, Indy, Columbus, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on November 13, 2021, 02:15:30 AM
Hmm, Euro little bit heavy handed with the Eastern trough around Thanksgiving.. We shall see.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 13, 2021, 09:21:27 AM
Latest projections starting show good possibility of a strong Niña now by later December as a super kelvin wave is developing to to help push things toward s that possibility
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Woodvegas on November 13, 2021, 11:17:26 AM
Link to DT's 2021-2022 Winter Forecast. Seems like the strength of the La Nina will be critical. I hope he is right and it will be mostly weak.

https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AHiE1ogY%5FofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375%2127987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375%2124503&o=OneUp
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on November 13, 2021, 02:28:39 PM
 This is absolutely the best Fall I can remember in a long time. The colors have been explosive and long lasting, it hasn't rained much and the temps have been pretty good...I could stand about 5-10* cooler overall but I can't complain.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on November 15, 2021, 09:21:04 AM
Yes, very nice fall colors here. Waiting to open the attic door soon to allow some cold air in.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 15, 2021, 10:38:27 AM
Yes, very nice fall colors here. Waiting to open the attic door soon to allow some cold air in.

(https://c.tenor.com/RC2GFTjmzWIAAAAM/christmas-vacation-attic.gif)
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 16, 2021, 11:57:32 AM
Crickets…..
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 16, 2021, 12:15:00 PM
Temperatures look pleasant today into tomorrow... we may top into the low 70s tomorrow. But, it's not going to last. Frontal passage on Thursday morning ushers in another chilly air mass, that looks to me like it's more or less going to stick around through the rest of the month, what I would term seasonably cool. Thanksgiving should have about the right feel to it, I think. Long range might have some rain about that time... but, that's still way too far out to nail down at this point.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: joemomma on November 16, 2021, 01:36:06 PM
When do we typically see our first snowfall, on average?  I know it's happened as early as Halloween before, but what's our average date for first snowfall?
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 16, 2021, 02:05:17 PM
When do we typically see our first snowfall, on average?  I know it's happened as early as Halloween before, but what's our average date for first snowfall?
be honest. For west Tennessee our first best chance snowfall is right around new years
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Crockett on November 16, 2021, 02:32:47 PM
When do we typically see our first snowfall, on average?  I know it's happened as early as Halloween before, but what's our average date for first snowfall?

I don't know about average, but for this Cumberland Plateau resident, the winter of 2010-2011 will forever be the gold standard by which winters are measured. Three snowfalls of 6"+ in December, including one that fell Christmas morning. It was glorious.

Obviously our coldest temperatures, on average, come in January and February. But I'd be perfectly content to get a couple of good snows during the Christmas season and then see a good warm-up that persists until spring. Late winter hiking in 60° temps is the best.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: gcbama on November 16, 2021, 05:11:35 PM
When do we typically see our first snowfall, on average?  I know it's happened as early as Halloween before, but what's our average date for first snowfall?

we talking accumulating or just some flakes in the air :) i seem to remember some as early as mid november and as late as april , you just never know :)
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 16, 2021, 06:21:41 PM
https://weatherspark.com/y/14687/Average-Weather-in-Nashville-Tennessee-United-States-Year-Round

According to that, the average snowfall period for Nashville ranges Dec 21 - Feb 28. I’m not sure if one should surmise from that an average first snowfall date. Dec 21 being the first day of winter seems a little too coincidental as a date, but I suppose that could be the case.

First measurable snowfall is so highly variable from year to year, that it probably doesn’t have a whole lot of meaning. As we all know, snow can accumulate earlier, later, or some years not at all. ;)
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: StormNine on November 16, 2021, 08:19:19 PM
I don't know about average, but for this Cumberland Plateau resident, the winter of 2010-2011 will forever be the gold standard by which winters are measured. Three snowfalls of 6"+ in December, including one that fell Christmas morning. It was glorious.

Obviously our coldest temperatures, on average, come in January and February. But I'd be perfectly content to get a couple of good snows during the Christmas season and then see a good warm-up that persists until spring. Late winter hiking in 60° temps is the best.

I would prefer a front-loaded winter over a back-loaded one personally.  The sun angle is more favorable as well plus cold and snow for the holidays is just magical.  The risk we do run with that is that our best snow climo is in the middle to the back-end of winter. 

A 2000-01 or 2010-11 winter would be a great one. 
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: snowdog on November 17, 2021, 05:51:39 AM
I would prefer a front-loaded winter over a back-loaded one personally.  The sun angle is more favorable as well plus cold and snow for the holidays is just magical.  The risk we do run with that is that our best snow climo is in the middle to the back-end of winter. 

A 2000-01 or 2010-11 winter would be a great one.

Make it happening. (for any Gold Rush fans out there)  ::snowman::
Title: November 2021
Post by: Curt on November 17, 2021, 09:20:33 PM
Pretty good consensus on a major Midwestern snowstorm the day after thanksgiving. Wouldn’t be anything for us now but gives one the idea that winter storms are coming southward.12z euro dropped 20 inches at Tulsa of course.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on November 18, 2021, 12:28:52 AM
Yeah, I know this is way out in LaLa land.. but it's just comical level warmth for first week of Dec.. lol Can't stop laughing...
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on November 18, 2021, 01:47:10 AM
IF the cold can dig a little deeper someone in Tennessee (outside of mtns) might see a little sumthin' sumthin'... Showing up on both GEFS and Euro just past Thanksgiving. Probably cold rain for most of us.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 18, 2021, 02:18:46 AM
Yeah, I know this is way out in LaLa land.. but it's just comical level warmth for first week of Dec.. lol Can't stop laughing...

Just another December these days.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: gcbama on November 18, 2021, 05:47:54 PM
looks like i could hit the teens early next week, pretty early in the season for that to happen....not rare by any means but not common either
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 18, 2021, 08:32:23 PM
looks like i could hit the teens early next week, pretty early in the season for that to happen....not rare by any means but not common either
won’t be no teens for overnight lows. Sorry
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 18, 2021, 09:25:49 PM
Calling for a low of 23 for woodlawn on Monday night. That’s not teens but it is pretty darn cold and not that far from teens to totally discount it.I love it! ::cold::
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Icestorm on November 19, 2021, 05:49:21 AM
I had 24 this morning where I live. Bet there will be teens in places Monday night.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 19, 2021, 06:31:33 AM
won’t be no teens for overnight lows. Sorry

Low of 22 now forecast for Nashville by Tuesday morning. That’s in the city. I bet there will be upper teens in outlying areas if that’s the case, easily.

Sorry your hopes for a warm November didn’t work out.  ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 19, 2021, 07:55:27 AM
Low of 22 now forecast for Nashville by Tuesday morning. That’s in the city. I bet there will be upper teens in outlying areas if that’s the case, easily.

Sorry your hopes for a warm November didn’t work out.  ::blowtorch::
sorry. Sure wasn’t cold either. Sorry again. December starting like that also .  The meltdown is going be epic this winter on the board when winter going be warmer than average . If there is anyone posting by then lol
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 19, 2021, 08:22:42 AM
won’t be no teens for overnight lows. Sorry

Any chance you could write in English?
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: David on November 19, 2021, 08:23:14 AM
sorry. Sure wasn’t cold either. Sorry again. December starting like that also .  The meltdown is going be epic this winter on the board when winter going be warmer than average . If there is anyone posting by then lol
Forever the antagonist for attention!  ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall:: ::bangingheadintowall::
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on November 19, 2021, 08:23:23 AM
sorry. Sure wasn’t cold either. Sorry again. December starting like that also .  The meltdown is going be epic this winter on the board when winter going be warmer than average . If there is anyone posting by then lol

Gettin' kinda cranky and sassy there, Bruce.  ::rofl::

I've reached the point that I don't concern myself too much with long range prognostications... just too many years of seeing things not pan out like anyone speculates.

I'm not looking past Thanksgiving weekend at this point. I have no clue what December will be like.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 19, 2021, 08:28:09 AM
It's not a shocking call by any means to predict a warmer than average winter for the south and east if we have a resurgent Nina. I don't think anyone on this board has said anything about forecasting a colder than average winter.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Matthew on November 19, 2021, 08:29:29 AM
sorry. Sure wasn’t cold either. Sorry again. December starting like that also .  The meltdown is going be epic this winter on the board when winter going be warmer than average . If there is anyone posting by then lol

I don’t think there will be any meltdown.  We all know what to expect here for winter after the last several winters.  To me November has been perfect for fall.  Let’s be real Bruce. I like it cool to cold but not as we have said before to cold to snow.  If December is like November I would say most on this board will be happy.  Going into January and February what happens will happen.  If it’s not brutal cold I would say most on this board will be happy with that also.  I mean who complains about lower heating bills.  Plus warmer than average?  That could be 1 degree warmer.  No big deal.  Still does not mean winter is nice and a good one overall.   Not sure why you have to be such a downer.  So your severe wx predictions for 2021 totally flopped. Seems only one upset by that is you. So who really is having the meltdown?
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: David on November 19, 2021, 08:35:06 AM
......
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Crockett on November 19, 2021, 09:33:59 AM

So your severe wx predictions for 2021 totally flopped. Seems only one upset by that is you. So who really is having the meltdown?

Aw snap!
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Crockett on November 19, 2021, 09:38:19 AM
won’t be no teens for overnight lows. Sorry

My NWS forecast. You probably better call them and let them know they're wrong. (423) 586-3771
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Bruce on November 19, 2021, 09:42:11 AM
......
post I make are about the subject weather, which is what this boards all about. I thought . So there is that .
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 19, 2021, 09:42:45 AM
@Crockett's forecast

Always nice to see those low temps in November. Yeah, I know we've had cold episodes November followed by blowtorch Decembers, but I always like a good pre-Thanksgiving cold snap.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: joemomma on November 19, 2021, 10:24:01 AM
You guys do know there is an ignore button, right?
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Curt on November 19, 2021, 12:50:18 PM
You guys do know there is an ignore button, right?
Best quote ever.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 19, 2021, 07:51:42 PM
When do we typically see our first snowfall, on average?  I know it's happened as early as Halloween before, but what's our average date for first snowfall?

I'm going to see if I can dig up any reliable data on that.

On average, my guess would be late Dec/early Jan for anywhere below 2,000 ft in Tennessee.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on November 19, 2021, 09:55:59 PM
Found this map... not exactly a very detailed map, but gives you an idea anyway:
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on November 19, 2021, 11:13:25 PM
Do you like your Canada blocks Large, Extra Large or Supersized Beyond Reason?
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on November 20, 2021, 11:38:05 PM
We had a big dewpoint depression at sunset Friday night. We bottomed out at 25 degrees this morning. Extremely efficient radiational cooling. This was 8 degrees below MRX forecast.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on November 21, 2021, 12:46:17 PM
How in the heck is there a Tornado warning right across the river in Arkansas ? It is 53 degrees!!
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on November 22, 2021, 01:31:19 AM
Silly at this long range, but what if? That's a pretty stout looking Tenn snow storm..
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: joemomma on November 22, 2021, 09:44:59 AM
NWS has a chance of snow Thursday night for my area.  I'll take it.  Always a bonus to see flakes flying this early in the season.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 22, 2021, 05:05:59 PM
NWS has a chance of snow Thursday night for my area.  I'll take it.  Always a bonus to see flakes flying this early in the season.

wont b no flakes flying... sorry
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Crockett on November 22, 2021, 08:06:32 PM
wont b no flakes flying... sorry

You're gonna be on Santa's naughty list.  >:D
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 22, 2021, 08:31:43 PM
You're gonna be on Santa's naughty list.  >:D

just telling it like it is... going be warm average winter. Come january lot on this board be ready for spring. Tele connection indicate big svr activity
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: StormNine on November 23, 2021, 04:00:25 AM
https://www.weather.gov/bou/DenverSnowLessStreaks

Keep that +EPO going like it has been and we will see records like this fall all across North America this winter.   

Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Brad on November 23, 2021, 06:51:05 AM
Interesting artifacts on radar this morning. Anyone know what that is?

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211123/8c6c85cb74afec804639cb3524c2be82.gif)
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on November 23, 2021, 07:54:04 AM
Interesting artifacts on radar this morning. Anyone know what that is?

I'd wager flocks of birds taking flight at sunrise.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Coach B on November 23, 2021, 09:43:34 AM
won’t be no teens for overnight lows. Sorry

I know Bruce was just trolling.....but  ;D
Quote
NWS Nashville
@NWSNashville
·
1h
Talk about a cold morning - some places dropped as low as 18-19°! Cold face How cold was it at your house?

https://twitter.com/NWSNashville/status/1463150634031628289 (https://twitter.com/NWSNashville/status/1463150634031628289)
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 23, 2021, 10:38:56 AM
I know Bruce was just trolling.....but  ;D
https://twitter.com/NWSNashville/status/1463150634031628289
::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::cold::
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: snowdog on November 24, 2021, 12:09:52 PM
We seem to be stuck in a pretty progressive pattern. Couple days cold, couple days average, warm day...wash rinse repeat.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: StormNine on November 24, 2021, 03:43:07 PM
You can kiss this winter goodbye if that mega blocking in the Aleutian Island region becomes a thing. 

[attachimg=1]

Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on November 24, 2021, 04:33:27 PM
So pretty:
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on November 24, 2021, 06:15:21 PM
With very little rain forecast around Chattanooga through the end of the month, it's looking likely we will see a top ten driest month on record. Currently sitting at .70 right now, and that's good for 6th driest Nov based on Nowdata records. The driest was in 1890, with only .16.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: StormNine on November 24, 2021, 08:47:48 PM
With very little rain forecast around Chattanooga through the end of the month, it's looking likely we will see a top ten driest month on record. Currently sitting at .70 right now, and that's good for 6th driest Nov based on Nowdata records. The driest was in 1890, with only .16.

I would be concerned about drought from Southern Canada and across much of the nation if we cannot shake this Central USA ridge stuff by the early part of Spring. It essentially will act as a roadblock for storm systems and shoot them up through Canada instead of the US.  This also could also make Capitan Bruce Tornado an upset man as well.  We are dangerously close to a 2012 or some of the Nina years of the 1950s.   
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Curt on November 25, 2021, 11:12:21 AM
I would be concerned about drought from Southern Canada and across much of the nation if we cannot shake this Central USA ridge stuff by the early part of Spring. It essentially will act as a roadblock for storm systems and shoot them up through Canada instead of the US.  This also could also make Capitan Bruce Tornado an upset man as well.  We are dangerously close to a 2012 or some of the Nina years of the 1950s.
Devils advocate. Strat warm with a weak PV in December and a MJO rolling into 7. 2011/12 could t buy a weak PV.  Tons of weak ninas with a stat warm in December analogs could open the freezer door.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20211125/ba2bcb999dc032d19e97ed232f933ea3.jpg)
 
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Clarksville Snowman on November 25, 2021, 03:23:59 PM
Would love to get in a snow or 2 in December and then hopefully get a reload late Jan. It doesn't take but a couple decent events in this area to have a average winter at least. Would be nice to see a few snows in December, it would also give us for some hope later in winter for maybe another shot.  ::popcorn:: ::cold::  ::snowman::
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 25, 2021, 07:20:41 PM
I'll leave it at this: I like the optimism. I'm not too optimistic for points east of the Rockies this winter.

I'll make a prediction map right before met. winter kicks off. Curious about everyone's thoughts for the CONUS this winter.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: StormNine on November 25, 2021, 08:00:38 PM
I'll leave it at this: I like the optimism. I'm not too optimistic for points east of the Rockies this winter.

I'll make a prediction map right before met. winter kicks off. Curious about everyone's thoughts for the CONUS this winter.

Although this Nina won't get as strong as that one did, I really think we are looking at a 1999-00 type of winter.  A winter that is going to be overall quite warm across much of North America, but will feature a solid 2-3 week period of blocking that will feature a chance for at least one solid winter threat. There is probably enough polar action or potential for blocking to prevent this winter from going straight up 2011-12.

I could also see a few severe weather/tornado threats as well if you can sneak some troughing in or get pacific systems to climb underneath the central US ridging.  Not as extreme as 1889-1890, 1998-1999, or 2007-2008 but perhaps up to a 1999-2000, 2011-2012, or 2016-2017 level. 

Drought could become an issue for much of the nation and even adjacent parts of Canada and Mexico come Spring/Summer.  Widespread severe weather activity may end for many folks in March or Early April while storm chasing season in the Plains could turn to dust.   
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on November 28, 2021, 04:38:23 PM
Hard to believe that 5 years ago today Gatlinburg was on fire.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on November 29, 2021, 10:59:28 AM
This has been the most boring November I can remember weather-wise. Absolutely nothing remarkable.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Crockett on November 29, 2021, 11:51:09 AM
This has been the most boring November I can remember weather-wise. Absolutely nothing remarkable.

And it has been marvelous!
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on November 29, 2021, 04:22:53 PM
I'm okay with boring Novembers. It was a good month with some great color. Now let's move on to the season of being continually disappointed by disappearing snow systems  :P
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: stayrose38 on November 29, 2021, 09:12:18 PM
Yeah, it's been slightly below avg temp wise.. a lot of cold mornings. But remarkable only for its dryness. And lack of storminess, usually we see some good storm set ups in Nov. Maybe this year January is our weird storm month. Hopefully.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on November 30, 2021, 09:09:04 AM
Yeah, it's been slightly below avg temp wise.. a lot of cold mornings. But remarkable only for its dryness. And lack of storminess, usually we see some good storm set ups in Nov. Maybe this year January is our weird storm month. Hopefully.

My prediction is for an active severe pattern for the later half of winter (late Jan/Feb/Mar). We'll see.
Title: Re: November 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on December 02, 2021, 06:04:27 AM
November ended 2-3 degrees below normal statewide.