Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Bruce on January 25, 2021, 09:05:55 AM

Title: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 25, 2021, 09:05:55 AM
Know it
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 25, 2021, 09:16:37 AM
Top analogs being used I see for this spring . Years 1974... 1976 ... 2011. Common.  February has 2008 written mostly as top analog  for that month alone .
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on January 25, 2021, 10:07:08 AM
Know it
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 25, 2021, 10:16:44 AM
Links please.

seen it over on american wx... word on street is major severe wx potential, every body talkin bout big outbreak possibly largest since 11..  trying get paster to work but stupid i phone wont copy link
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 25, 2021, 10:18:38 AM
seen it over on american wx... word on street is major severe wx potential, every body talkin bout big outbreak possibly largest since 11..  trying get paster to work but stupid i phone wont copy link
talk weather good severe weather forum for severe wx lovers
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 25, 2021, 10:33:07 AM
seen it over on american wx... word on street is major severe wx potential, every body talkin bout big outbreak possibly largest since 11..  trying get paster to work but stupid i phone wont copy link
dont you hate it  when that happens man...
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: JHart on January 25, 2021, 10:53:47 AM
Top analogs being used I see for this spring . Years 1974... 1976 ... 2011. Common.  February has 2008 written mostly as top analog  for that month alone .
Well, just remember that in early December some experts were listing 1985 and 1977 as the top analogs for this winter.   ::whistling::
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 25, 2021, 10:56:29 AM
Well, just remember that in early December some experts were listing 1985 and 1977 as the top analogs for this winter.   ::whistling::
didnt fall for that . To much climate change since then .
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 25, 2021, 11:21:46 AM
Links please.
I will try and grab some links but over on American Wx Fred Gossage posted about 2011 being an analog.  I posted it a couple weeks ago in the long range discussion.  Unfortunately he is right many are saying it
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 25, 2021, 11:26:40 AM
talk weather good severe weather forum for severe wx lovers
Actually American Wx is better.  Fred posts on there now. Also one of our own who knows his wx and just joined us. Mr. Jeff!  Southern Wx I
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 25, 2021, 11:59:05 AM
No fan of tornadoes, but I do love the run-of-the-mill storm, and wouldn't mind one every sultry summer afternoon.  The towering clouds in the sky and the distant rumble of thunder followed by a stiff, cooling wind with heavy rain makes for good front porch entertainment.  It beats the cold, dreary rain of winter.  However, as I age, I've become much less apt to "enjoy" hearing that a tornado watch has been issued for my area.  With that in mind, I hope this spring follows the trend of most springs since 2011--more busts than booms. 
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 25, 2021, 12:03:36 PM
No fan of tornadoes, but I do love the run-of-the-mill storm, and wouldn't mind one every sultry summer afternoon.  The towering clouds in the sky and the distant rumble of thunder followed by a stiff, cooling wind with heavy rain makes for good front porch entertainment.  It beats the cold, dreary rain of winter.  However, as I age, I've become much less apt to "enjoy" hearing that a tornado watch has been issued for my area.  With that in mind, I hope this spring follows the trend of most springs since 2011--more busts than booms.
looking back last ten years most the springs were predicted to be quite and less active actually . We been in a pretty quite and tranquil spring pattern most years since 2011. Appears the signs are there for it finally break. And with gang busters too. We shall see
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on January 25, 2021, 01:56:44 PM
No fan of tornadoes, but I do love the run-of-the-mill storm, and wouldn't mind one every sultry summer afternoon.  The towering clouds in the sky and the distant rumble of thunder followed by a stiff, cooling wind with heavy rain makes for good front porch entertainment. 

Go live along the Gulf Coast. Minus the cooling wind, they get those storms daily. When I lived in Baton Rouge and New Orleans, you'd get a big storm almost every day between April to the end of July. This storms would have lots of energy and loved throwing tons of C2G lightning and torrential downpours. They'd usually hit about 5 pm, which would give just enough time for the sun to come back out and heat things back up before sunset.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: JayCee on January 25, 2021, 04:53:21 PM
Go live along the Gulf Coast. Minus the cooling wind, they get those storms daily. When I lived in Baton Rouge and New Orleans, you'd get a big storm almost every day between April to the end of July. This storms would have lots of energy and loved throwing tons of C2G lightning and torrential downpours. They'd usually hit about 5 pm, which would give just enough time for the sun to come back out and heat things back up before sunset.

I think I live far enough south.  I spent a few weeks with my sister in Louisiana when she lived there.  Tennessee's brand of heat and humidity seems quite mild compared to what I experienced there.   ::blowtorch::
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Matthew on January 25, 2021, 04:58:23 PM
looking back last ten years most the springs were predicted to be quite and less active actually . We been in a pretty quite and tranquil spring pattern most years since 2011. Appears the signs are there for it finally break. And with gang busters too. We shall see

Here is to many more busts like the winter threat busts.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 26, 2021, 02:30:27 PM
good info today anyone interested over talk weather... appears now leading analog for this up coming spring is now 1974, what close second 2011 ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Eric on January 26, 2021, 02:42:12 PM
good info today anyone interested over talk weather... appears now leading analog for this up coming spring is now 1974, what close second 2011 ::coffee::

(https://media.giphy.com/media/3otWpis3ycACsz1MFG/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on January 26, 2021, 02:47:25 PM
1974 is definitely not what we need to see again.
https://www.wbir.com/article/news/local/40-years-ago-1974-tornado-super-outbreak-hits-east-tn/51-95228775
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Eric on January 26, 2021, 02:57:17 PM
1974 is definitely not what we need to see again.
https://www.wbir.com/article/news/local/40-years-ago-1974-tornado-super-outbreak-hits-east-tn/51-95228775

'74 was my parents generation.  '11 was the '74 of my generation.  Is '21 going to be the '11 of my kids generation?  I hope not.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on January 26, 2021, 03:20:51 PM
Hope this is a huge bust.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on January 26, 2021, 04:46:52 PM
So, indeed, while the large scale pattern I guess does fit some bad years, the details of any given system on any given day will make or break what actually happens.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on January 26, 2021, 06:10:26 PM
While I do agree things look ominous for the spring we have to remember January looked banging for winter a few weeks ago.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: StormNine on January 26, 2021, 07:18:42 PM
- Low amplitude troughs (Check)

- Favorable transition with a declining La-Nina (Check)

- Bathwater Carriabean Ocean (remember it isn't just the Gulf) (Check)

The pieces are most certainly there but one thing that could throw a wrench into this is the tendency for that Central US Ridging, which may serve as a block similar to what happened after mid-April in 2012 and 2006 with a gangbusters start that quickly ends.  In that case, derecho and damaging wind threats would be the main concern after mid-April.     
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on January 26, 2021, 07:46:53 PM
While I do agree things look ominous for the spring we have to remember January looked banging for winter a few weeks ago.
actually this winter was called mild from get go  . Potentially best chance s were early months . If we were going get any winter storms
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 04, 2021, 02:50:31 PM
Reading about the TORRO scale just for fun.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TORRO_scale
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 09, 2021, 01:12:45 PM
Click the link if you'd like to register for a SKYWARN spotter class!

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/skywarn (https://www.weather.gov/ohx/skywarn)

From the NWS-OHX branch website:
Quote
Have you always wanted to become a NWS SKYWARN Storm Spotter but don't have time to attend one of our in-person classes?  Are you looking for something for your community group or classroom to get involved in?  Are you a Tennessee resident?  NWS Nashville would like to invite you to become a SKYWARN Storm Spotter! 

These online classes will allow individuals to complete the course in the comfort of their own home or office using the extremely user-friendly computer program, Go-To Meeting.  The only requirement will be speakers on your computer to listen and if you want to ask questions, you will need to have a VOIP microphone. Additionally, they can be viewed on Mac, PC, iPad, iPhone and Android.

To sign up for an online class, simply click on the link beside the date/time you want to attend, fill out the form and we will forward you a link to register on the Go-To Meeting website.  Register, download the FREE software, and BAM! You can attend the 1.5 - 2.0 hour online class.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: andyhb on February 17, 2021, 07:15:53 PM
I'll just be cryptic in here and say something along the lines of:

"Houston, we have a problem."
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 17, 2021, 07:30:16 PM
I'll just be cryptic in here and say something along the lines of:

"Houston, we have a problem."
Please no. Not again.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on February 17, 2021, 08:16:05 PM
I'll just be cryptic in here and say something along the lines of:

"Houston, we have a problem."

I can't hang on to the cliff for very long. Need more info ASAP!!
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 08:18:57 PM
I can't hang on to the cliff for very long. Need more info ASAP!!
get ready for perhaps a bumpy ride this spring ...
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Eric on February 17, 2021, 08:52:02 PM
I can't hang on to the cliff for very long. Need more info ASAP!!

Andy is the harbinger of doom.  And sadly, we're all here for it.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 09:42:56 PM
Ok I like winter.  It has no tornadoes!
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 17, 2021, 09:43:32 PM
Ok I like winter.  It has no tornadoes!

False
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: jwr2914 on February 17, 2021, 10:12:19 PM
Ok I like winter.  It has no tornadoes!

Feb. 5th 2008!
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 17, 2021, 10:40:04 PM
January 17 th 1999. January 22! 1999
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 17, 2021, 11:02:19 PM
Thanks for reminding me. 
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: andyhb on February 18, 2021, 12:26:19 AM
I'll just say that the background state this year is more favorable for significant severe weather outbreaks east of the Mississippi River than any since 2011 and leave it at that. Whether the synoptic pattern takes advantage of that remains to be seen, but I don't have a great feeling about what is around the corner in March and April.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Eric on February 18, 2021, 12:32:46 AM
January 30, 2913.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 18, 2021, 12:38:07 AM
January 30, 2913.
this needs be taken serious.  Please
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: DocB on February 18, 2021, 06:52:50 AM
this needs be taken serious.  Please
Must be contagious. James Spann's morning video he says its "Friday" Feb 18.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 18, 2021, 06:53:54 AM
Must be contagious. James Spann's morning video he says its "Friday" Feb 18.

The snow's got everyone high.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: DocB on February 18, 2021, 06:57:38 AM
The snow's got everyone high.
I grew up in the 70'/80's - that was a different kind of 'snow'
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 18, 2021, 07:43:41 AM
Must be contagious. James Spann's morning video he says its "Friday" Feb 18.

It seems like Friday. This has been the longest week ever, but somehow it
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 18, 2021, 08:00:07 AM
I'll just say that the background state this year is more favorable for significant severe weather outbreaks east of the Mississippi River than any since 2011 and leave it at that. Whether the synoptic pattern takes advantage of that remains to be seen, but I don't have a great feeling about what is around the corner in March and April.

We were coming out of a La Nina back in 2011, IIRC, though the Nina from the 10-11 winter was much stronger than this year's. Nina winters are infamous for leading into destructive spring outbreaks.

What other factors are setting us up? Teach me what I don't know. We've got a stubborn SER supplying the warm air to our region (thanks to the MJO doing laps in phases 5, 6 and 7), Arctic cold in the Southern Plains, and certainly no lack of moisture. To an amateur like me, that's the extent of my knowledge.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 18, 2021, 08:27:43 AM
This thread going get buisy soon. Not talking bout all the pretty flowers blooming and birds singing either kind of way ...
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 18, 2021, 08:36:05 AM
I'll just say that the background state this year is more favorable for significant severe weather outbreaks east of the Mississippi River than any since 2011 and leave it at that. Whether the synoptic pattern takes advantage of that remains to be seen, but I don't have a great feeling about what is around the corner in March and April.

Sounds like a good year to finally film that documentary of you and Bruce on a chase.  >:D
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on February 18, 2021, 08:57:29 AM
Sounds like a good year to finally film that documentary of you and Bruce on a chase.  >:D
I
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Eric on February 18, 2021, 09:18:38 AM
this needs be taken serious.  Please

Cmon Bruce....2013.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 18, 2021, 09:48:51 AM
This thread going get buisy soon. Not talking bout all the pretty flowers blooming and birds singing either kind of way ...
Ready for spring myself. Mainly the things you mentioned here, as well as greener trees and extended hours of daylight.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 18, 2021, 10:50:43 AM
Yay my first banter in the Spring thread..... "clears throat" .... Spring is already over folks, I do not see any severe weather based on modeling that isnt even out yet. Most likely be dry and no severe. This is based off of nothing as I have no idea why I am even typing this. I do like Morels, and a wet spring will bring just that. My honey hole , Oh baby Oh baby
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 18, 2021, 11:22:09 AM
Yay my first banter in the Spring thread..... "clears throat" .... Spring is already over folks, I do not see any severe weather based on modeling that isnt even out yet. Most likely be dry and no severe. This is based off of nothing as I have no idea why I am even typing this. I do like Morels, and a wet spring will bring just that. My honey hole , Oh baby Oh baby
lol............ GFS already spitting out fantasy super dynamic systems deep troughs ::coffee::  fantasy of course, but we are fixing change gears
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 18, 2021, 11:47:20 AM
Yay my first banter in the Spring thread..... "clears throat" .... Spring is already over folks, I do not see any severe weather based on modeling that isnt even out yet. Most likely be dry and no severe. This is based off of nothing as I have no idea why I am even typing this. I do like Morels, and a wet spring will bring just that. My honey hole , Oh baby Oh baby

seem same in winter thread which poster cant remember
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 18, 2021, 11:53:38 AM
lol............ GFS already spitting out fantasy super dynamic systems deep troughs ::coffee::  fantasy of course, but we are fixing change gears

Dude you crack me up man. Bruce I challenge you to repeat "fantasy super dynamic systems deep troughs" 3 times as fast as you can!!! **** everyone get it on this one. Cheers :)
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on February 18, 2021, 11:57:21 AM
I give it two weeks before TWC starts naming summer storms and talking about the power of the Gulflocentric Cyclonic Rotation that makes thunderstorms more powerful. Will we see Summer Storm Adolphus in March or have to wait until the official start of the season in April?  ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl::
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: wfrogge on February 18, 2021, 12:18:33 PM
Fantasyland system on the EURO on the 26th needs to be watched. Mid 60s dews into West TN with an 82kt 500mb jet out of the southwest would be trouble if it verified.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 18, 2021, 12:27:37 PM
Fantasyland system on the EURO on the 26th needs to be watched. Mid 60s dews into West TN with an 82kt 500mb jet out of the southwest would be trouble if it verified.
beat me to that one lol haven
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: wfrogge on February 18, 2021, 12:52:45 PM
beat me to that one lol haven
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 18, 2021, 04:43:16 PM
My guess is it may take a while to recover from the cold regime at this latitude for severe weather to threaten TN in a significant way... well into March, but more likely April. Last year, we were hit in very early March, but I doubt that's the case this year. Severe weather will probably hit in the deeper south and Gulf Coast areas well before it's a major possibility for us. Hard to believe we're past the middle of February and 10 days until the start of meteorological spring.

With that said- I'm going to go on record and say I think March will be a mixed bag. I doubt we're done with winter weather, to be honest, but I think some warm patterns and other storm chances with enter the picture.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: mamMATTus on February 18, 2021, 05:01:25 PM
My guess is it may take a while to recover from the cold regime at this latitude for severe weather to threaten TN in a significant way... well into March, but more likely April. Last year, we were hit in very early March, but I doubt that's the case this year. Severe weather will probably hit in the deeper south and Gulf Coast areas well before it's a major possibility for us. Hard to believe we're past the middle of February and 10 days until the start of meteorological spring.

You took the words right out of my mouth. I'm not feeling an early start to severe season. I'm expecting a backloaded spring with 3-4 big threats.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 18, 2021, 05:15:05 PM
You took the words right out of my mouth. I'm not feeling an early start to severe season. I'm expecting a backloaded spring with 3-4 big threats.
dont work like that unfortunately. Example January 1999 major sleet storm first week that month temps down single digits nearly week. 3 weeks later by 17 th that month . Two tornado outbreaks big time. This air mass will recover quickly  with no problem
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 18, 2021, 06:42:17 PM
I do wonder what the SSTs in the Gulf are at this time. That can play a role.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 18, 2021, 06:55:51 PM
I do wonder what the SSTs in the Gulf are at this time. That can play a role.

With a strong enough system and ridging in the right area think the Bahamas that helps pump in the Caribbean sea air, you can overcome lower SSTs in the Gulf.   

1977 was actually a decent severe weather year despite having snow down into Florida and the coldest winter on record.  1968 and 2011 also followed solidly colder than normal winters and both were above average.   

Likewise, we have had warm winters that featured very warm sst that we thought would just explode and some of them either never did, or if they did they were essentially over after 1 or 2 events in March/First Half of April.   



Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 18, 2021, 07:29:45 PM
simply look at the gfs ensembles n now look at both  major models of opps, the se ridge is going to prime postition for action in midsouth and plenty moisture streaming north with systems to work with. i like were we are heading ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 18, 2021, 08:50:37 PM
Matt Grantham, a met over at TW said this today:

Quote
As winter relaxes, we'll probably see a gradual ramp up over the next several weeks, peaking later into March and April. It's almost that time, and the potential is very high end.

That sounds reasonable to me and is really all I was getting at. Doesn
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2021, 08:43:20 AM
Matt Grantham, a met over at TW said this today:

That sounds reasonable to me and is really all I was getting at. Doesn
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 19, 2021, 08:49:55 AM
I think it will be at least until mid march before first real threat
think thats very plausible statement... although gfs ensembles has a system first week march thats got my interest
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: wfrogge on February 19, 2021, 08:56:22 AM
I have my money the first real threat for the Mid-South being around March 1st.  If this pattern holds with the sun a little higher in the sky things will get interesting in the southeast.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: gcbama on February 19, 2021, 09:06:33 AM
I have my money the first real threat for the Mid-South being around March 1st.  If this pattern holds with the sun a little higher in the sky things will get interesting in the southeast.

I do agree i think some threats will arise soon, but IMO more like around the I-20 region from B-ham southward into the deep south, i think it may be a minute before the deeper moisture gets up this way
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 19, 2021, 09:10:03 AM
I do agree i think some threats will arise soon, but IMO more like around the I-20 region from B-ham southward into the deep south, i think it may be a minute before the deeper moisture gets up this way
its all going depend on the ole SE RIDGE, how strong it gets and position its in... if the gfs ensembles on to something, the midsouth season begins first week march
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: snowdog on February 19, 2021, 09:12:09 AM
After living through a tornado last year and being without power for almost a week, I can't stress enough for folks to think through your preparations. Let those in Texas currently struggling be your wake up call. When thing's go south, the only one in charge of keeping you and your family safe and living...is YOU...and if YOU and YOUR family are good, go check in on neighbors.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on February 19, 2021, 10:14:02 AM
Spring brings hunting Morels, may favorite part. I would love some nice thunderstorm and rain to really bring them out. Anyone else hunt for Morels?
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 19, 2021, 10:23:00 AM
Robins and bluebirds have appeared here and have been active in the trees and yard.  Unlike the last 4 years, I dont see any of spring bulbs poking up through the ground yet. A testament to a much cooler February than the past several, despite missing the worst of the Arctic air.

The Sun has really changed its position in the sky since December.  Always good to see the seasonal shift of the Sun whether in late winter or late summer.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 19, 2021, 10:25:06 AM
Robins and bluebirds have appeared here and have been active in the trees and yard.  Unlike the last 4 years, I dont see any of spring bulbs poking up through the ground yet. A testament to a much cooler February than the past several, despite missing the worst of the Arctic air.

The Sun has really changed its position in the sky since December.  Always good to see the seasonal shift of the Sun whether in late winter or late summer.

I'm very grateful we didn't have a 60 degree February with flooding rains the whole month.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 19, 2021, 11:07:40 AM
Robins and bluebirds have appeared here and have been active in the trees and yard.  Unlike the last 4 years, I dont see any of spring bulbs poking up through the ground yet. A testament to a much cooler February than the past several, despite missing the worst of the Arctic air.

The Sun has really changed its position in the sky since December.  Always good to see the seasonal shift of the Sun whether in late winter or late summer.

Yeah, I had trees blooming on Feb 2nd last year. I think we'll see the plant and animal action pick up in the next couple of weeks as the days get longer. It's my favorite time of year.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 19, 2021, 12:19:17 PM
Yeah, I had trees blooming on Feb 2nd last year. I think we'll see the plant and animal action pick up in the next couple of weeks as the days get longer. It's my favorite time of year.

Spring, fall, winter then summer.  Fav to least fav for me. Summer would be higher up because I love the very long days, but the stagnant heat and humidity disqualifies it. Winter might be higher up, too, if winters had more winter around here.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Crockett on February 19, 2021, 01:08:25 PM
Spring is my least favorite season. I love a warm spring day, but on the whole the season feels like two months of waiting for it to get warm only to have the cold air intrude every time you're ready to trade flannel for short sleeves. That and mud. Lots and lots of mud.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 19, 2021, 01:12:19 PM
I appreciate all 4 seasons although my least favorite of the 4 is Summer but it can be enjoyable as long as it doesn't 95 degrees/dewpoints of 75+ for 4-5 months straight. 

Fall, Winter, and Spring are fairly equal to me assuming that Summer doesn't run into the former.   

With that being said I would not want to live in a place where you didn't get 4 seasons. If we are being honest it is our hot summers and make us long for Fall and Winter.  If it was just 60-70 degrees every day in the Summer then October-November wouldn't be as special. 
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: wfrogge on February 19, 2021, 01:30:45 PM
Its fantasy range but.... we need to watch this timeframe as several model runs have hinted at potential. 65 dews at the TN boarder with this system would give us some severe in the area
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Bruce on February 19, 2021, 01:40:07 PM
Its fantasy range but.... we need to watch this timeframe as several model runs have hinted at potential. 65 dews at the TN boarder with this system would give us some severe in the area
yeah noticed on euro today, going up against a strong southeast ridge to boot. interesting to catch  the next frame , this is the period the GFS ensembles been hinting at for while ::coffee::
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 19, 2021, 10:08:36 PM
Spring, fall, winter then summer.  Fav to least fav for me. Summer would be higher up because I love the very long days, but the stagnant heat and humidity disqualifies it. Winter might be higher up, too, if winters had more winter around here.

Agree with everything you wrote. I love spring- in fact, it's my favorite season because I love watching everything bloom, and unlike snow in the winter, you're guaranteed to watch everything come to life in the spring. I like fall and winter about the same, but would probably like them more if they were not as warm as they have been in recent years, as you said. My least favorite season is summer. I like the summertime until July, but after that it starts getting plain nasty down here, and it just won't quit until October or November. August and September are the nastiest months down here. Could also make a case for February being a nasty month when it's 60 degrees and rainy the whole time, as in 2018, 2019 and 2020. That's why I have no clue why so many of you guys want warm winters if it's not going to snow enough for you. It's plenty warm enough here for 8 months out of the year; I don't want to add February to the mild column.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on February 19, 2021, 10:30:47 PM
I'm very grateful we didn't have a 60 degree February with flooding rains the whole month.
The only significant weather warning that I got out of this entire
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 20, 2021, 07:22:32 AM
What are our thoughts on spring flooding? 

When we talk about an active spring severe weather-wise than we typically also deal with significant flooding/river flooding

1999
2003
2008
2010
2011

These years all come to mind and with the battleground zone likely to set up near our area for at least March into most of April the setup for not only severe weather but heavy rain is likely.

I would say for major river flooding we don't quite have the sustained snowcover in places like St. Louis and points north that we did in years like 2008 and 2011 so that will help somewhat.   
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 20, 2021, 08:30:24 AM
The only significant weather warning that I got out of this entire
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 20, 2021, 10:09:06 AM
I think the general rule of thumb that long range models tend to be too aggressive on a pattern change holds true in a flip to spring just as they do sniffing out a wintry pattern. The
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 20, 2021, 04:28:29 PM
I think the general rule of thumb that long range models tend to be too aggressive on a pattern change holds true in a flip to spring just as they do sniffing out a wintry pattern. The
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on February 20, 2021, 04:40:05 PM
Exactly... considering what Texas just went through, that airmass is bound to have brought SSTs down significantly.
Title: Re: Spring 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 21, 2021, 07:19:34 AM
The western Gulf has been significantly cooled off by the Arctic outbreak that hit the central U.S. the last two weeks.   While the eastern Gulf is much warmer, I would think it will have an impact on March severe potential, since the western Gulf is now below normal temperature wise.  April and May's severe season could well be a worrisome time for the Southern Plains into the Mid-South.

In the Short-Term probably but if you get a strong Sub-990mb then it can get moisture from the Caribbean Ocean.  After the Ice Storm of 2009 we had a severe weather event a few weeks later where you had a strong low pressure and people boating on the Gulf could actually feel the waves and the warmth from the Caribbean being pulled into the system. 

With that being said we still have a loaded Canada and we may be heading into Phase 8.  Even if that doesn't give us winter weather then repeated cold shots will likely delay severe weather season, but when it gets here then watch out.

We have broad-based troughs, a strong ridge that can pump that Caribbean air, a fading La-Nina, etc. all the things we need for what will probably be an intense but perhaps short-lived severe weather season.  Not quite as long as 2008 or 2011, but it could be as intense as those years.  2006 and 2012 may be similar analogs.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: StormNine on February 21, 2021, 07:42:06 AM
Don't expect this Summer to be very fun at all because our Nina friend picks up strength again in addition to persistent ridging signals around the Desert Southwest and the Bermuda Ridge equal a toasty summer.

Probably will also feature another active hurricane season although with the stronger ridges we may be pushing a lot more storms out to sea or down into Mexico.

All in all from this last round of wintry mayhem, to the up and down and active severe weather of spring, to the likely blazing hot summer expected we will be a very busy weather community. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on February 21, 2021, 09:48:29 AM
It's time for another 2007, 2012 or 2016-style summer, I guess
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: Navywxman on February 21, 2021, 10:00:55 AM
Unfortunately, even in the near-term going into meteorological spring, the signs are there that flooding may become a widespread issue for much of the region due to completely saturated soils.

There is relatively strong agreement that 3-5in of rainfall is likely over the next 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 21, 2021, 12:24:10 PM
Unfortunately, even in the near-term going into meteorological spring, the signs are there that flooding may become a widespread issue for much of the region due to completely saturated soils.

There is relatively strong agreement that 3-5in of rainfall is likely over the next 2 weeks.

While this winter has been damp, it has mostly been light rain, unlike the last couple years that had pretty substantial volumes of rain. The local reservoirs and rivers are still at their low winter levels. That puts us at a much better advantage going in to spring than the last couple of years. That said, when I see people start throwing out 2011 spring analogs, I get a little nervous. My background is in water management in SE Louisiana, and 2011 was a doozy for us because of all the rain in the Ohio watershed. That was the year we saw Morganaza opened for only the second time. Those of us south of Old River Control were sweating bullets during that flood. It took the lower Mississippi system to the max. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 22, 2021, 08:20:50 AM
From the look of the long range EURO, I think we're about to get a substantial volume of rain over the next two weeks.  Tennessee seems to be ground zero for the heaviest amounts of rain in the whole lower 48, even outdoing the mountains of the Pacific Northwest.  March could see some significant flooding problems for our area if it verifies. 

EDIT:  MRX sees the signs of some hydro problems by early next week.

Quote
While confidence is low on the track and
placement of associated frontal boundaries with this system, the
overall consensus is for broad southerly flow and deep Gulf moisture
advection. Ensemble means and deterministic guidance all point
towards PWAT values reaching near to above 1.0" Sunday and into
Monday, which is climatologically significant for this time of year.
Based on BNA sounding climatology, these values are near to above
daily max PWAT values for late Feb/early Mar. Although confidence is
very limited at this temporal scale, these indications may allow for
persistent, potentially heavy rainfall locally. With antecedent
rainfall expected, very general HWO wording for at least isolated
flooding will be utilized to give everyone a heads up. This system
will certainly be something to watch in the coming days for
potential flooding.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: Nash_LSU on February 22, 2021, 09:14:36 AM
...and as soon as I open my big mouth about having capacity in the system, you post a 6"-12" rainfall map. I should just keep my mouth shut.   ::drowning::
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 22, 2021, 01:00:49 PM
Today's run of the Euro is showing a similar solution of heavy rain starting sometime early Friday and lasting into next week. although totals aren't quite as extreme as the last run (but bad enough).  It appears a front moves in and decides to make a home in the TN Valley.  Waves of low pressure with heavy rain and even rounds of thunderstorms move through repeatedly.  The entire state west to east is gets soaked multiple times.  Reservoirs will be filling up fast, similar to the last several springs, if it plays out as shown. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: Crockett on February 22, 2021, 01:06:50 PM
As Nash_LSU mentioned, our reservoirs should be pretty well equipped to handle a deluge of rainfall right now, compared to where we were at by this point the past several years. Here on the northern plateau, we've received only a little more than 2.5" of rain so far this month compared to 10-12" of rain each of the past three Februarys.

I bet we'll be dealing with some flash flooding this weekend, though. Grounds are super saturated and there's a lot of rain coming our way between these next two systems...especially the second system Sunday-Monday, if it pans out.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: JayCee on February 22, 2021, 01:17:31 PM
I've had about 4.5" of rain this month, thanks in part to the heavy rain that fell when areas west of here were seeing snow.  Nothing close to last February.  I suppose the colder pattern has reduced the amount of moisture available compared to the last few years.  One more reason to prefer a cold winter over a mild & super wet one. March may be a different story as the cold retreats. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: Navywxman on February 22, 2021, 04:53:37 PM
...and as soon as I open my big mouth about having capacity in the system, you post a 6"-12" rainfall map. I should just keep my mouth shut.   ::drowning::
Lol, it's all your fault.

But yes, we have good reservoir pool capacity it appears, but this melting will completely saturate the ground in much of the watershed, which will lead to high runoff due to dormant vegetation still.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: Matthew on February 22, 2021, 10:51:38 PM
My yard is completely saturated.  Nothing but water seeping up as we walk on it.  I would think 5
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
Post by: Navywxman on February 23, 2021, 08:11:26 AM
My yard is completely saturated.  Nothing but water seeping up as we walk on it.  I would think 5