Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Monthly Discussions and General Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on May 31, 2021, 03:17:20 PM

Title: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on May 31, 2021, 03:17:20 PM
Here is the June Pattern.

We start off with a pattern that is not too different from early 1999/2007, which are not good analogs for what ended up happening later those summers.

It involves what appears to be a merger of a Greenland/Arctic high with the Bermuda high centered over the Northeast and Southeastern Canada along with the Sonoran Heat Ridge that has been supercharged by the major drought in that region. 

There is a weakness in Texas that may impact our region on and off which is a good thing because it will help keep the death ridges at bay for our area, but once that goes away or if it goes away then we set up the stage for a coast to coast heat wave later on.

Happy June and welcome to dog days of weather, summertime. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Bruce on May 31, 2021, 06:28:21 PM
Here is the June Pattern.

We start off with a pattern that is not too different from early 1999/2007, which are not good analogs for what ended up happening later those summers.

It involves what appears to be a merger of a Greenland/Arctic high with the Bermuda high centered over the Northeast and Southeastern Canada along with the Sonoran Heat Ridge that has been supercharged by the major drought in that region. 

There is a weakness in Texas that may impact our region on and off which is a good thing because it will help keep the death ridges at bay for our area, but once that goes away or if it goes away then we set up the stage for a coast to coast heat wave later on.

Happy June and welcome to dog days of weather, summertime.
sounds like the perfect jogging weather coming if that unfolds ...
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Matthew on May 31, 2021, 07:01:50 PM
The way wx has been unpredictable and totally different than expected or predicted.  I would say expect the unexpected.  Also read where the sun has gone really quiet so maybe that factors into a cooler and wetter summer than normal.  Looking at this week forecast.  I like it with mid to low 80’s and chances of rain.  Let’s make this the whole summer pattern please.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on May 31, 2021, 10:02:18 PM
The way wx has been unpredictable and totally different than expected or predicted.  I would say expect the unexpected.  Also read where the sun has gone really quiet so maybe that factors into a cooler and wetter summer than normal.  Looking at this week forecast.  I like it with mid to low 80’s and chances of rain.  Let’s make this the whole summer pattern please.

I heard from someone, one of the Geology pages I follow I believe that they expect the Sun to enter a pretty active sunspot/solar storm pattern very soon.  I would like to see Snowdog's thoughts on that since he is the one that tends to follow that the best on here. 

Next fall and winter look set to give us a Neutral Winter, ENSO-wise.  What that means I don't know especially since our winters have failed to act like their ENSO status since our last super El-Nino.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Bruce on June 01, 2021, 05:34:45 AM
I heard from someone, one of the Geology pages I follow I believe that they expect the Sun to enter a pretty active sunspot/solar storm pattern very soon.  I would like to see Snowdog's thoughts on that since he is the one that tends to follow that the best on here. 

Next fall and winter look set to give us a Neutral Winter, ENSO-wise.  What that means I don't know especially since our winters have failed to act like their ENSO status since our last super El-Nino.
maybe this winter will actually act like a real La Niña then... since patterns seem be out of wack... lol
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on June 01, 2021, 07:37:55 AM
maybe this winter will actually act like a real La Niña then... since patterns seem be out of wack... lol

I was just going through all my pictures from last winter. We had some nice hits here. That was the best winter I have witnessed since '11.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 01, 2021, 09:47:58 AM
Note a marginal risk of strong storms west of the Plateau tomorrow.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: JayCee on June 01, 2021, 03:06:59 PM
Here is the June Pattern.

We start off with a pattern that is not too different from early 1999/2007, which are not good analogs for what ended up happening later those summers.

It involves what appears to be a merger of a Greenland/Arctic high with the Bermuda high centered over the Northeast and Southeastern Canada along with the Sonoran Heat Ridge that has been supercharged by the major drought in that region. 

There is a weakness in Texas that may impact our region on and off which is a good thing because it will help keep the death ridges at bay for our area, but once that goes away or if it goes away then we set up the stage for a coast to coast heat wave later on.

Happy June and welcome to dog days of weather, summertime.

One has to wonder if that weakness over Texas & the lower Mississippi Valley will make them a target for any tropical activity that develops or arrives in the Gulf. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on June 02, 2021, 06:52:31 AM
I saw this in a news digest I receive every morning and thought it was worth sharing just out of general interest. Twitter is launching a new paid service called Tomorrow that partners with local meteorologists for weather news. From the article it appears there will be both free and premium content, although I wonder what professional mets would share at $10 a month that isn't already publicized...
https://9to5mac.com/2021/06/01/twitter-tomorrow-local-weather-news-service/?utm_source=join1440&utm_medium=email
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 02, 2021, 08:30:03 AM
One has to wonder if that weakness over Texas & the lower Mississippi Valley will make them a target for any tropical activity that develops or arrives in the Gulf.

That is a legit concern should that persist deeper into hurricane season.  Also, this is the type of pattern that supports tropical systems getting trapped as ridging builds in around them as well.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: gcbama on June 02, 2021, 02:28:35 PM
surprised no flash flood warnings, guess it was so dry prior to this, but i have had 3+ inches of torrential rain already
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: snowdog on June 02, 2021, 05:33:04 PM
I heard from someone, one of the Geology pages I follow I believe that they expect the Sun to enter a pretty active sunspot/solar storm pattern very soon.  I would like to see Snowdog's thoughts on that since he is the one that tends to follow that the best on here. 

Next fall and winter look set to give us a Neutral Winter, ENSO-wise.  What that means I don't know especially since our winters have failed to act like their ENSO status since our last super El-Nino.

There is a decent relationship between low solar activity and a weakened PV, like we saw last winter as we basically were at solar minimum between cycles.

Over the last 6 months, solar activity continues to ramp up as the new solar cycle gets underway. Still a long way from cycle peak around 2023/2024, but solar activity will be much greater than last winter.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 02, 2021, 09:32:46 PM
Tornado Warned storm on the eastside of Clarksville.

I thought I saw a brief debris signature around Exit 11 but they may be noise due to being close to the radar site.  It is moving towards Adams at the moment.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 02, 2021, 09:35:13 PM
[attachimg=1]

That would be the signature in question. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 03, 2021, 09:33:53 AM
Only downed trees and lines were reported in the Clarksville area.

There was a report of a destroyed unanchored mobile home in Benton County that could have been from either a weak tornado or a really strong damaging wind gust.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 03, 2021, 12:36:55 PM
Flooding in Chattanooga today. Dual pol suggests 3-5” over downtown. Still pouring down too.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 03, 2021, 02:11:16 PM
Record-setting heat across Utah today as some areas will exceed their daily record highs by a full 5-7 degrees.  Is this a sign of what is to come across the West this summer?  I'm afraid so for those areas.

Our area looks to be in a battle between the weakness/possible subtropical jet influence and the combined ridge to our north.  Areas from Kentucky north get to burn baby burn while clouds and rain keep areas from Tennessee south more manageable.   

It is pretty much a Strong El-Nino pattern but in the summertime.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Matthew on June 04, 2021, 07:41:15 PM
The rain sure did help with more on way.  Love not having to water.  Please this type wx all summer.  Strange wx and nature though.  I have things already blooming that usually do not bloom till late July and August.  Acorns already falling from my trees.  The world is upside down I do believe.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 07, 2021, 08:46:06 AM
Precipitable Water is near 2 inches so any storms that form during the week could produce localized flooding. 

I would actually expect to see localized flooding in various localized locations across the state in the coming days so beware of that.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 08, 2021, 10:29:44 AM
It seems models always struggle on where the heavy rain sets up this time of year. Its early in the week but we were supposed to get 3+ inches. It has yet to rain a drop. Everything staying south and west.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 08, 2021, 12:02:14 PM
It seems models always struggle on where the heavy rain sets up this time of year. Its early in the week but we were supposed to get 3+ inches. It has yet to rain a drop. Everything staying south and west.
South of Memphis is getting absolutely hammered this morning. 8-12" widespread. The convection is still hung up over that area also. PDS Flash Flood Emergencies are in effect.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 08, 2021, 12:22:11 PM
There is a Slight Risk of severe weather in SW Middle TN from about Pickwick Dam over towards Decatur/Perry County. 

You do have to watch the northeast edge of these MCS systems sometimes.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 08, 2021, 12:23:15 PM
Quote
Flash Flood Warning
MSC027-119-135-082100-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.W.0047.210608T1719Z-210608T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHWEST TALLAHATCHIE, EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COAHOMA, AND SOUTH QUITMAN COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Southwestern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Northwestern Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...

* Until 400 PM CDT.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 09, 2021, 07:20:13 AM
Man, there is like a hole in the sky over northern MS. They have another MCS stalled out in about the same place this morning.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 09, 2021, 09:11:42 AM
N MS has received quite a bit of rainfall over the last day.

There's a cluster that just seems to be sitting over E AR, continuously bubbling up and spreading downstream over N MS.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 10, 2021, 07:04:17 AM
Another day another Flash Flood Emergency is Northern Misssissppi's theme song.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
545 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Southwestern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Southern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Western Yalobusha County in northwestern Mississippi...

* Until 900 AM CD
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 10, 2021, 07:14:01 AM
After a muggy week and weekend, we do look to get some humidity relief next week.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 10, 2021, 08:09:26 AM
Northern MS again this morning. Some areas showing storm total rain of 18-20" over the last 2-3 days. That's nuts for occurring outside a tropical system. Not too dissimilar from Middle TN 2010, just a smaller area.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 10, 2021, 10:40:30 AM
Some areas between Greenwood and Charleston, MS are only accessible by boat now. 

The area with the absolute worst flooding is in along a Dumas, ARK to Batesville, MS to Greenwood, MS triangle.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: JayCee on June 10, 2021, 05:30:37 PM
Despite the forecast calling for possible heavy rain this week, I've just seen about a half inch so far.  Nothing fell today (at least up to this post).
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on June 11, 2021, 03:14:57 PM
Anyone seeing a big glowing orb in the sky? What is that?
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 12, 2021, 09:45:27 AM
The CMC ensembles want to place pretty much the entire North American continent under a major heat ridge towards the end of the month.  Yuck!!!
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Matthew on June 12, 2021, 04:27:18 PM
Yesterday all the rain was slightly east training south.  Now slightly west training south.  🤦🏻‍♂️🤣
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: TNHunter on June 12, 2021, 04:43:43 PM
Absolutely digging this spurt of heat and humidity for a change up. Running season and pool/lake season is in full bore!
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Bruce on June 12, 2021, 05:11:47 PM
Absolutely digging this spurt of heat and humidity for a change up. Running season and pool/lake season is in full bore!
amen brother … like see it little warmer be honest .
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: TNHunter on June 14, 2021, 06:33:47 AM
Probably be tired of it when it’s like this in September but right now it is great. Go for a run mid day, come home work the garden for awhile, and then jump in the pool and drink a cold beer.....glorious!
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 14, 2021, 10:05:22 AM
Glasgow, MT has more 90+ degrees so far in 2021 than most locations in Tennessee do. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 15, 2021, 10:19:13 PM
Highs in Death Valley, CA approaching 130 this week, getting close to planetary record highs.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 15, 2021, 10:31:39 PM
The EPO block off the west coast of Canada is just bad news for the West the 2nd half of the month.  That just ensures that hot and dry conditions stay entrenched.   

The good news for us is that it will focus the worst of the heat to our west as long as it is there and it doesn't try and merge with the Bermuda Ridge. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on June 16, 2021, 06:35:17 PM
Highs in Death Valley, CA approaching 130 this week, getting close to planetary record highs.


We need water in Cali. Snowpack in the central Sierras was at 0% of normal as of several weeks ago.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 17, 2021, 08:40:30 AM
 https://www.kunc.org/environment/2021-06-10/colorados-water-scarcity-may-finally-be-coming-for-your-local-duck-pond (https://www.kunc.org/environment/2021-06-10/colorados-water-scarcity-may-finally-be-coming-for-your-local-duck-pond)
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 17, 2021, 09:14:36 AM
The Salt Lake City, UT area has been pretty much living under Red Flag Warnings, Heat Advisories, and Excessive Heat Warnings pretty much all month long.

Looking at data, Salt Lake City is currently around +10 from normal so far in June (temperature-wise) and hasn't seen measurable rainfall since May 23rd.

Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 17, 2021, 09:18:57 AM
We do look to get a weakness going in between the two ridges toward the end of the month.

It does look like we will escape June without any truly h to the e to the double hockey sticks heat (consistent heat index 105+ days).  Some long-term folks and long-range models suggest that we won't be so lucky in July as the southwest monsoon begins and the horrid Sonora ridge merges with our Southeast Ridge. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 17, 2021, 10:10:28 PM
I’ve been in Alaska for the last week. Spent today on a boat in Seward in 46 degree rain. Kinda looking forward to a little more heat when I get back.