Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Tropical Spin Zone => Topic started by: cgauxknox on May 22, 2021, 06:36:40 AM

Title: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: cgauxknox on May 22, 2021, 06:36:40 AM
I know we usually call this an outlook thread but with our first storm of the season making an appearance today (Ana) and an invest causing massive flooding in Louisiana we're already talking about active storms.

It is predicted to be another above average season, although hopefully we won't see anything close to what happened last year.
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: mamMATTus on May 22, 2021, 04:39:16 PM
I expect it to be just as active as last year but with more landfalls. For whatever reason I feel like Kate is going to be a monster.
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: StormNine on May 22, 2021, 05:50:26 PM
I expect it to be just as active as last year but with more landfalls. For whatever reason I feel like Kate is going to be a monster.

I think Mexico is going to have a lot more issues this time as well especially as storms get caught under the ridging.  If we see breaks in the Sonora and Bermuda Ridge like we did in 2017 and 2020 then we will have major trouble in the Gulf Coast.   
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: cgauxknox on June 14, 2021, 03:31:25 PM
TD2 has formed off of NC but will probably stay offshore. There's also an invest developing in the Gulf. We're already a couple of weeks into hurricane season so it's time to start watching the tropical forecasts before you travel.
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: mamMATTus on June 14, 2021, 04:15:12 PM
Going to be watching this season closely. I'm not a beach person and haven't been in many years, but I've got a fishing trip booked in Port St. Joe with a group of friends August 14-18 which is the start of the peak of the season.
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: WXHD on June 14, 2021, 04:17:06 PM
TD2 has formed off of NC but will probably stay offshore. There's also an invest developing in the Gulf. We're already a couple of weeks into hurricane season so it's time to start watching the tropical forecasts before you travel.

We’re supposed to arrive on Dauphin Island Saturday. We’re hoping it’s just a wet and windy start, nothing more. We were forced to evacuate from there in October mid trip. Don’t want this one shortened by a storm too! Let’s keep it moving west.
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: StormNine on June 14, 2021, 05:49:41 PM
We’re supposed to arrive on Dauphin Island Saturday. We’re hoping it’s just a wet and windy start, nothing more. We were forced to evacuate from there in October mid trip. Don’t want this one shortened by a storm too! Let’s keep it moving west.

With this one the heavy rain threat will extend quite a bit east of center.  Although we are not expecting a full-blown hurricane (at least I hope not) some widespread flooding is possible. 

With the tendency to have strong ridging to the north and west of us, I am very concerned that we are eventually going to get one of these tropical systems stuck underneath the ridge as we head deeper into the year.   
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: Matthew on June 14, 2021, 09:18:33 PM
We’re heading to Anna Marie Island on Friday.  Can’t wait!
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: cgauxknox on June 15, 2021, 12:24:38 PM
We now have TS Bill in the Atlantic but it's thankfully moving away from the coast. The Invest in the Gulf is looking to be a Tropical Depression by the weekend with early rain coming into the northern Gulf Coast. Overall development is pretty unclear at this point, although nobody is talking about more than the potential for a TS at the moment. My concern is that depending on where it tracks, especially inland, even a TD with significant rainfall could bring problems to areas that have already been deluged in the past several weeks.
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: jwr2914 on June 17, 2021, 05:57:24 AM
We’re heading to Anna Marie Island on Friday.  Can’t wait!

Been there! Saying it is beautiful does not do it justice. It is breathtaking.
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: Matthew on June 17, 2021, 07:06:32 AM
Been there! Saying it is beautiful does not do it justice. It is breathtaking.

Glad to hear this.  Looking forward to it.
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: StormNine on June 17, 2021, 09:09:14 AM
The Euro tracks the remains through the southern part of Tennessee, but the moisture is displaced quite a bit to the south and east so therefore the heavier rains look to stay south and east of the state by large.   
Title: Re: 2021 Tropical Season
Post by: cgauxknox on June 17, 2021, 04:39:48 PM
The season's first tropical storm warnings are being issued along the Gulf coast.