Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Monthly Discussions and General Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on July 19, 2022, 05:08:07 PM

Title: Long Range Discussion: Fall 2022
Post by: StormNine on July 19, 2022, 05:08:07 PM
Only started so that it can be started before someone else starts the winter thread and we don't upset the balance anymore.

Does anybody have any fall plans?
Do we think the summer pattern will continue into the first half of fall?
Longrange trends?

La-Nina may influence this fall but its influence could potentially wane as we transition from fall to winter.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Fall 2022
Post by: cgauxknox on July 19, 2022, 07:51:51 PM
Excellent decision to start the thread! As long as we get a fall season I'll enjoy it. The years where we go straight from hot to winter are tough to take.
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Fall 2022
Post by: StormNine on July 19, 2022, 08:52:57 PM
I do hope we get a legit fall. 

Analog data is all over the place although it does lean for September to be a bit warmer than average, which makes sense considering the ridge will be a factor and it leans a bit on the cool side for November. 

Overall it looks like a legit toss-up once we start making dents in the ridge.  Any tropical system in either the Atlantic, Indian, or Pacific side of things could have an impact for better or for worse as well.   
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Fall 2022
Post by: StormNine on July 27, 2022, 12:08:11 PM
[attachimg=1]

Here is my outlook for fall which will probably feature some weird -ENSO/+PNA/-PDO/Residual Ridge kinda thing.  If I had to guess, I would say that September will likely be above average with increased potential for the Halloween to Thanksgiving period to be below average for our area. 
Title: Re: Long Range Discussion: Fall 2022
Post by: Bruce on July 27, 2022, 12:58:54 PM
(Attachment Link)

Here is my outlook for fall which will probably feature some weird -ENSO/+PNA/-PDO/Residual Ridge kinda thing.  If I had to guess, I would say that September will likely be above average with increased potential for the Halloween to Thanksgiving period to be below average for our area.
look for increased severe weather chances from late
November into first year …. As the jet stream starts come back south