Tennessee Weather Forum

Weather Forecasting and Discussion => Monthly Discussions and General Weather => Topic started by: StormNine on May 31, 2021, 03:17:20 PM

Title: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on May 31, 2021, 03:17:20 PM
Here is the June Pattern.

We start off with a pattern that is not too different from early 1999/2007, which are not good analogs for what ended up happening later those summers.

It involves what appears to be a merger of a Greenland/Arctic high with the Bermuda high centered over the Northeast and Southeastern Canada along with the Sonoran Heat Ridge that has been supercharged by the major drought in that region. 

There is a weakness in Texas that may impact our region on and off which is a good thing because it will help keep the death ridges at bay for our area, but once that goes away or if it goes away then we set up the stage for a coast to coast heat wave later on.

Happy June and welcome to dog days of weather, summertime. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Bruce on May 31, 2021, 06:28:21 PM
Here is the June Pattern.

We start off with a pattern that is not too different from early 1999/2007, which are not good analogs for what ended up happening later those summers.

It involves what appears to be a merger of a Greenland/Arctic high with the Bermuda high centered over the Northeast and Southeastern Canada along with the Sonoran Heat Ridge that has been supercharged by the major drought in that region. 

There is a weakness in Texas that may impact our region on and off which is a good thing because it will help keep the death ridges at bay for our area, but once that goes away or if it goes away then we set up the stage for a coast to coast heat wave later on.

Happy June and welcome to dog days of weather, summertime.
sounds like the perfect jogging weather coming if that unfolds ...
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Matthew on May 31, 2021, 07:01:50 PM
The way wx has been unpredictable and totally different than expected or predicted.  I would say expect the unexpected.  Also read where the sun has gone really quiet so maybe that factors into a cooler and wetter summer than normal.  Looking at this week forecast.  I like it with mid to low 80’s and chances of rain.  Let’s make this the whole summer pattern please.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on May 31, 2021, 10:02:18 PM
The way wx has been unpredictable and totally different than expected or predicted.  I would say expect the unexpected.  Also read where the sun has gone really quiet so maybe that factors into a cooler and wetter summer than normal.  Looking at this week forecast.  I like it with mid to low 80’s and chances of rain.  Let’s make this the whole summer pattern please.

I heard from someone, one of the Geology pages I follow I believe that they expect the Sun to enter a pretty active sunspot/solar storm pattern very soon.  I would like to see Snowdog's thoughts on that since he is the one that tends to follow that the best on here. 

Next fall and winter look set to give us a Neutral Winter, ENSO-wise.  What that means I don't know especially since our winters have failed to act like their ENSO status since our last super El-Nino.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Bruce on June 01, 2021, 05:34:45 AM
I heard from someone, one of the Geology pages I follow I believe that they expect the Sun to enter a pretty active sunspot/solar storm pattern very soon.  I would like to see Snowdog's thoughts on that since he is the one that tends to follow that the best on here. 

Next fall and winter look set to give us a Neutral Winter, ENSO-wise.  What that means I don't know especially since our winters have failed to act like their ENSO status since our last super El-Nino.
maybe this winter will actually act like a real La Niña then... since patterns seem be out of wack... lol
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on June 01, 2021, 07:37:55 AM
maybe this winter will actually act like a real La Niña then... since patterns seem be out of wack... lol

I was just going through all my pictures from last winter. We had some nice hits here. That was the best winter I have witnessed since '11.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 01, 2021, 09:47:58 AM
Note a marginal risk of strong storms west of the Plateau tomorrow.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: JayCee on June 01, 2021, 03:06:59 PM
Here is the June Pattern.

We start off with a pattern that is not too different from early 1999/2007, which are not good analogs for what ended up happening later those summers.

It involves what appears to be a merger of a Greenland/Arctic high with the Bermuda high centered over the Northeast and Southeastern Canada along with the Sonoran Heat Ridge that has been supercharged by the major drought in that region. 

There is a weakness in Texas that may impact our region on and off which is a good thing because it will help keep the death ridges at bay for our area, but once that goes away or if it goes away then we set up the stage for a coast to coast heat wave later on.

Happy June and welcome to dog days of weather, summertime.

One has to wonder if that weakness over Texas & the lower Mississippi Valley will make them a target for any tropical activity that develops or arrives in the Gulf. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: cgauxknox on June 02, 2021, 06:52:31 AM
I saw this in a news digest I receive every morning and thought it was worth sharing just out of general interest. Twitter is launching a new paid service called Tomorrow that partners with local meteorologists for weather news. From the article it appears there will be both free and premium content, although I wonder what professional mets would share at $10 a month that isn't already publicized...
https://9to5mac.com/2021/06/01/twitter-tomorrow-local-weather-news-service/?utm_source=join1440&utm_medium=email
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 02, 2021, 08:30:03 AM
One has to wonder if that weakness over Texas & the lower Mississippi Valley will make them a target for any tropical activity that develops or arrives in the Gulf.

That is a legit concern should that persist deeper into hurricane season.  Also, this is the type of pattern that supports tropical systems getting trapped as ridging builds in around them as well.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: gcbama on June 02, 2021, 02:28:35 PM
surprised no flash flood warnings, guess it was so dry prior to this, but i have had 3+ inches of torrential rain already
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: snowdog on June 02, 2021, 05:33:04 PM
I heard from someone, one of the Geology pages I follow I believe that they expect the Sun to enter a pretty active sunspot/solar storm pattern very soon.  I would like to see Snowdog's thoughts on that since he is the one that tends to follow that the best on here. 

Next fall and winter look set to give us a Neutral Winter, ENSO-wise.  What that means I don't know especially since our winters have failed to act like their ENSO status since our last super El-Nino.

There is a decent relationship between low solar activity and a weakened PV, like we saw last winter as we basically were at solar minimum between cycles.

Over the last 6 months, solar activity continues to ramp up as the new solar cycle gets underway. Still a long way from cycle peak around 2023/2024, but solar activity will be much greater than last winter.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 02, 2021, 09:32:46 PM
Tornado Warned storm on the eastside of Clarksville.

I thought I saw a brief debris signature around Exit 11 but they may be noise due to being close to the radar site.  It is moving towards Adams at the moment.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 02, 2021, 09:35:13 PM
[attachimg=1]

That would be the signature in question. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 03, 2021, 09:33:53 AM
Only downed trees and lines were reported in the Clarksville area.

There was a report of a destroyed unanchored mobile home in Benton County that could have been from either a weak tornado or a really strong damaging wind gust.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 03, 2021, 12:36:55 PM
Flooding in Chattanooga today. Dual pol suggests 3-5” over downtown. Still pouring down too.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 03, 2021, 02:11:16 PM
Record-setting heat across Utah today as some areas will exceed their daily record highs by a full 5-7 degrees.  Is this a sign of what is to come across the West this summer?  I'm afraid so for those areas.

Our area looks to be in a battle between the weakness/possible subtropical jet influence and the combined ridge to our north.  Areas from Kentucky north get to burn baby burn while clouds and rain keep areas from Tennessee south more manageable.   

It is pretty much a Strong El-Nino pattern but in the summertime.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Matthew on June 04, 2021, 07:41:15 PM
The rain sure did help with more on way.  Love not having to water.  Please this type wx all summer.  Strange wx and nature though.  I have things already blooming that usually do not bloom till late July and August.  Acorns already falling from my trees.  The world is upside down I do believe.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 07, 2021, 08:46:06 AM
Precipitable Water is near 2 inches so any storms that form during the week could produce localized flooding. 

I would actually expect to see localized flooding in various localized locations across the state in the coming days so beware of that.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 08, 2021, 10:29:44 AM
It seems models always struggle on where the heavy rain sets up this time of year. Its early in the week but we were supposed to get 3+ inches. It has yet to rain a drop. Everything staying south and west.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 08, 2021, 12:02:14 PM
It seems models always struggle on where the heavy rain sets up this time of year. Its early in the week but we were supposed to get 3+ inches. It has yet to rain a drop. Everything staying south and west.
South of Memphis is getting absolutely hammered this morning. 8-12" widespread. The convection is still hung up over that area also. PDS Flash Flood Emergencies are in effect.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 08, 2021, 12:22:11 PM
There is a Slight Risk of severe weather in SW Middle TN from about Pickwick Dam over towards Decatur/Perry County. 

You do have to watch the northeast edge of these MCS systems sometimes.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 08, 2021, 12:23:15 PM
Quote
Flash Flood Warning
MSC027-119-135-082100-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.W.0047.210608T1719Z-210608T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHWEST TALLAHATCHIE, EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COAHOMA, AND SOUTH QUITMAN COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Southwestern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Northwestern Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...

* Until 400 PM CDT.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 09, 2021, 07:20:13 AM
Man, there is like a hole in the sky over northern MS. They have another MCS stalled out in about the same place this morning.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 09, 2021, 09:11:42 AM
N MS has received quite a bit of rainfall over the last day.

There's a cluster that just seems to be sitting over E AR, continuously bubbling up and spreading downstream over N MS.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 10, 2021, 07:04:17 AM
Another day another Flash Flood Emergency is Northern Misssissppi's theme song.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
545 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Southwestern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Southern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Western Yalobusha County in northwestern Mississippi...

* Until 900 AM CD
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 10, 2021, 07:14:01 AM
After a muggy week and weekend, we do look to get some humidity relief next week.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 10, 2021, 08:09:26 AM
Northern MS again this morning. Some areas showing storm total rain of 18-20" over the last 2-3 days. That's nuts for occurring outside a tropical system. Not too dissimilar from Middle TN 2010, just a smaller area.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 10, 2021, 10:40:30 AM
Some areas between Greenwood and Charleston, MS are only accessible by boat now. 

The area with the absolute worst flooding is in along a Dumas, ARK to Batesville, MS to Greenwood, MS triangle.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: JayCee on June 10, 2021, 05:30:37 PM
Despite the forecast calling for possible heavy rain this week, I've just seen about a half inch so far.  Nothing fell today (at least up to this post).
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on June 11, 2021, 03:14:57 PM
Anyone seeing a big glowing orb in the sky? What is that?
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 12, 2021, 09:45:27 AM
The CMC ensembles want to place pretty much the entire North American continent under a major heat ridge towards the end of the month.  Yuck!!!
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Matthew on June 12, 2021, 04:27:18 PM
Yesterday all the rain was slightly east training south.  Now slightly west training south.  🤦🏻‍♂️🤣
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: TNHunter on June 12, 2021, 04:43:43 PM
Absolutely digging this spurt of heat and humidity for a change up. Running season and pool/lake season is in full bore!
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Bruce on June 12, 2021, 05:11:47 PM
Absolutely digging this spurt of heat and humidity for a change up. Running season and pool/lake season is in full bore!
amen brother … like see it little warmer be honest .
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: TNHunter on June 14, 2021, 06:33:47 AM
Probably be tired of it when it’s like this in September but right now it is great. Go for a run mid day, come home work the garden for awhile, and then jump in the pool and drink a cold beer.....glorious!
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 14, 2021, 10:05:22 AM
Glasgow, MT has more 90+ degrees so far in 2021 than most locations in Tennessee do. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 15, 2021, 10:19:13 PM
Highs in Death Valley, CA approaching 130 this week, getting close to planetary record highs.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 15, 2021, 10:31:39 PM
The EPO block off the west coast of Canada is just bad news for the West the 2nd half of the month.  That just ensures that hot and dry conditions stay entrenched.   

The good news for us is that it will focus the worst of the heat to our west as long as it is there and it doesn't try and merge with the Bermuda Ridge. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Nashville_Wx on June 16, 2021, 06:35:17 PM
Highs in Death Valley, CA approaching 130 this week, getting close to planetary record highs.


We need water in Cali. Snowpack in the central Sierras was at 0% of normal as of several weeks ago.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 17, 2021, 08:40:30 AM
 https://www.kunc.org/environment/2021-06-10/colorados-water-scarcity-may-finally-be-coming-for-your-local-duck-pond (https://www.kunc.org/environment/2021-06-10/colorados-water-scarcity-may-finally-be-coming-for-your-local-duck-pond)
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 17, 2021, 09:14:36 AM
The Salt Lake City, UT area has been pretty much living under Red Flag Warnings, Heat Advisories, and Excessive Heat Warnings pretty much all month long.

Looking at data, Salt Lake City is currently around +10 from normal so far in June (temperature-wise) and hasn't seen measurable rainfall since May 23rd.

Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 17, 2021, 09:18:57 AM
We do look to get a weakness going in between the two ridges toward the end of the month.

It does look like we will escape June without any truly h to the e to the double hockey sticks heat (consistent heat index 105+ days).  Some long-term folks and long-range models suggest that we won't be so lucky in July as the southwest monsoon begins and the horrid Sonora ridge merges with our Southeast Ridge. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 17, 2021, 10:10:28 PM
I’ve been in Alaska for the last week. Spent today on a boat in Seward in 46 degree rain. Kinda looking forward to a little more heat when I get back.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Charles L. on June 18, 2021, 04:47:37 AM
I’ve been in Alaska for the last week. Spent today on a boat in Seward in 46 degree rain. Kinda looking forward to a little more heat when I get back.

That sounds perfect. I’ll trade you 😂
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on June 18, 2021, 08:27:04 AM
I’ve been in Alaska for the last week. Spent today on a boat in Seward in 46 degree rain. Kinda looking forward to a little more heat when I get back.

The weather here has been perfect this week. Last week through Sunday was nasty though. The humidity on Sunday was awful.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 18, 2021, 10:11:30 AM
A couple of nice days this week for sure. I could tell the humidity was returning yesterday though, and it's feeling pretty humid now (DPs mid to upper 60s). Temps on their way back to 90s again this afternoon.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Bruce on June 18, 2021, 11:47:13 AM
A couple of nice days this week for sure. I could tell the humidity was returning yesterday though, and it's feeling pretty humid now (DPs mid to upper 60s). Temps on their way back to 90s again this afternoon.
summer is practically here… pretty typical weather
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 18, 2021, 11:59:22 AM
There does appear to be another reprieve next week, similar to this week. But, yes, these cooler spells will be fewer and farther between.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Curt on June 18, 2021, 12:14:27 PM
Nice cool down for Monday and Tuesday for mid June- well below normal. Crockett loves it.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 19, 2021, 11:30:35 AM
With impulses coming off the western ridge later next week, we may have to watch for NW Flow MCS events.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Crockett on June 19, 2021, 09:55:20 PM
Nice cool down for Monday and Tuesday for mid June- well below normal. Crockett loves it.

With all these cool snaps we're seeing in June, it's gonna be a shock to the system when West TN goes into the pressure cooker in July so that we can enjoy some nice 88-degree lake days here in the Cumberlands.  ;D
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 20, 2021, 06:12:03 PM
Quote
Both the NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate specific humidity and
precipitable water values of about 2 standard deviations above
normal, and in the range of 90 to 99 percent of climatology, during
this period. This stands to reason given the GFS/GEFS depiction of
an atmospheric river of anomalously high integrated water vapor
transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the forecast area late in the
week. All of that paired with the very slow southeastward drift of
the cold front through the region suggests heavy rain and localized
flooding will be of concern heading into next weekend. Additionally,
a precursory look at the blend of deep layer shear and instability
suggests there is at least some potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms during this period.

According to the NWS of Paducah, next weekend may be a bit interesting.
Title: Re: June 2021 SP
Post by: Jilly on June 21, 2021, 12:01:55 PM
SPC
Mesoscale Discussion 1047
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kentucky and northern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

   Valid 211635Z - 211800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms along a cold front are expected to become more
   organized through the afternoon with a threat for some large hail
   and damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along the cold front from
   northern Kentucky into northeast Arkansas with some additional
   development occurring in the unstable airmass ahead of this
   activity. Mid-level flow is weaker in this region (~30-35 kts per
   area VWP) which yields around 20 to 25 knots of effective shear
   given the southwesterly surface winds. Therefore, storms have
   struggled to become organized thus far. However, the airmass ahead
   of this front is very unstable with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg and
   increasing with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This
   instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km per
   BNA 12Z RAOB) will support rapid updraft growth which may pose a
   threat for isolated damaging wind and large hail. As storms congeal,
   they may become better organized which could support a greater wind
   damage threat. If this occurs, a watch may need to be considered
   across at least parts of northern Tennessee and eastern Kentucky.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/21/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...P AH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   37678659 38148517 38148248 37938223 37618218 36598373
               36068508 35458672 35488801 35608963 35829050 36029074
               37018860 37678659


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1047.html

Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 21, 2021, 12:11:41 PM
Some of the storms in NW Tennessee are producing 2+ inch/per hour rainfall rates. 

Localized flooding is something to watch. Thankfully most folks in West TN and Western Middle TN have dry soils which limit the flooding threat. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on June 21, 2021, 01:26:34 PM
Oppressive heat is in the forecast for the West next week. Brutal readings over Eastern Washington.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 21, 2021, 02:24:58 PM
Oppressive heat is in the forecast for the West next week. Brutal readings over Eastern Washington.

That Gulf of Alaska Ridge is a monster and it looks like it is merging with the Sonora ridge.

If we lose that EPO-style ridge once the Monsoon begins after the 4th of July that heat is coming for us.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 22, 2021, 09:45:12 AM
It's delightful out today.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Thundersnow on June 22, 2021, 04:00:55 PM
Fires are already ramping up out west, specifically in AZ, CA, and OR.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 22, 2021, 07:30:01 PM
It's delightful out today.

Upper 70s/80s with low humidity is the best type of summertime weather.

Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 22, 2021, 07:30:33 PM
Quote
Due to a significant increase in fire activity in multiple geographic areas, as well as increased competition for shared resources, the National Preparedness Level has been elevated to Preparedness Level 4 (PL4).
In the last 20 years, 2002, 2008, and 2012 are the only previous fire years when the National Preparedness Level has been increased to PL4 in the month of the June. Since 1990, today is the second earliest we have increased to PL4. #FireYear2021
Photo: Weber Basin Civilian Conservation Corps members observe the Bennion Creek Fire in Utah on June 9, 2021. Photo from InciWeb.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 22, 2021, 08:56:25 PM
Washington State/Idaho Highs on Monday with some all-time records that are in danger of falling:

Washington:
Spokane, WA: 108F
Wenatchee, WA: 110F
Omak, WA: 111F
Yakima, WA: 110F
Snoqualmie Pass, WA: 95F

Idaho Time:
Boise, ID: 106F
Coeur D' Alene, ID: 107F
Lewiston, ID: 116F
Sandpoint, ID: 102F

I am going to savor this cooler air for our area before this heat moves in our direction the 2nd half of the Summer.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Matthew on June 23, 2021, 01:31:26 PM
Washington State/Idaho Highs on Monday with some all-time records that are in danger of falling:

Washington:
Spokane, WA: 108F
Wenatchee, WA: 110F
Omak, WA: 111F
Yakima, WA: 110F
Snoqualmie Pass, WA: 95F

Idaho Time:
Boise, ID: 106F
Coeur D' Alene, ID: 107F
Lewiston, ID: 116F
Sandpoint, ID: 102F

I am going to savor this cooler air for our area before this heat moves in our direction the 2nd half of the Summer.

Maybe it will not.  Maybe we keep string of not oppressive and somewhat wet summers going.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 23, 2021, 01:58:51 PM
https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-84_metric_e.html

Looks like the Triple Digits reach into British Columbia. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 23, 2021, 02:03:43 PM
Maybe it will not.  Maybe we keep string of not oppressive and somewhat wet summers going.

The bad news for them and not-so-bad news for us is that the MJO is stuck in phases 1-2. 

This time of year MJO Phase 1-2 equals Western Ridge that is also two of our most favorable phases in the wintertime.  We move into COD according to some by July 7th.   

In the late summer/early fall, MJO phases 7 and 8 are bad for us.  That was what caused us to have a record warm September back in 2019.  I'm not that sure on what phases 3-6 do for us in the Summer.  In the winter, they are terrible for us but not so sure what they lead to in the summer.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 23, 2021, 08:38:37 PM
Washington State/Idaho Highs on Monday with some all-time records that are in danger of falling:

Washington:
Spokane, WA: 108F
Wenatchee, WA: 110F
Omak, WA: 111F
Yakima, WA: 110F
Snoqualmie Pass, WA: 95F

Idaho Time:
Boise, ID: 106F
Coeur D' Alene, ID: 107F
Lewiston, ID: 116F
Sandpoint, ID: 102F

I am going to savor this cooler air for our area before this heat moves in our direction the 2nd half of the Summer.
My carrot weather app (which I think is GFS based) shows a high of 113 in Portland OR on Saturday. That’s absurd in an area where AC in homes isn’t terribly common.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: schneitzeit on June 24, 2021, 03:42:04 PM
My carrot weather app (which I think is GFS based) shows a high of 113 in Portland OR on Saturday. That’s absurd in an area where AC in homes isn’t terribly common.

That is unbelievable for them. Hopefully they have some electric fans handy.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 24, 2021, 07:55:23 PM
That is unbelievable for them. Hopefully they have some electric fans handy.

The homeless population is going to be really vulnerable. With the MJO stuck in Phases 1-2, I can pretty much see this pattern lasting at least most of the summer for that area as the ongoing drought plus MJO trends teams up to create a feedback loop.  It will pretty much be their version of our 2007/2016.

Boy I do not want to live in a place like Leavenworth, WA or Oroville, CA from July-November wondering if you are about to be Paradised. A good windy day with all of that dry fuel around is going to create some unstoppable wildfires.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 27, 2021, 08:01:46 AM
After what looks like a decent cold front around or just before the 4th of July we have the tale of two long-range patterns.

1) The CFS merges the Pacific NW death ridge with the Bermuda Ridge and cooks the entire continent starting the 2nd week of July.

2) The Euro Weeklies keep a weakness and average to below-average temperatures centered across the I-44/I-55 corridors through the end of July at least.  This prevents the two ridges from merging together and just torches the Pacific NW and occasionally SE Canada and the NE, but prevents our area and over towards I-44 from getting too hot for too long.   

The MJO is probably going to be the main factor here.  If it continues to spiral through phases 1-2 then pattern 2 would likely develop. If it moves into other phases then we would be in danger of situation number 1 occurring. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 27, 2021, 12:58:17 PM
[attachimg=1]
Title: June 2021
Post by: Curt on June 27, 2021, 03:34:24 PM
(Attachment Link)
If the 850’s are just right we’ll then…

Seriously, that western heat ridge is way displaced to the north. Impressive to say the least. And the upcoming monsoon season in the southwest looks impressive saving them. The pacific NW looks like the fire target for later if they can’t get some rain.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: dwagner88 on June 27, 2021, 08:53:19 PM
It’s looking likely that a large portion of us won’t even hit 80 over the coming holiday weekend. Will likely be quite wet though.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 28, 2021, 08:33:46 AM
Portland, OR hit 111F sitting an all-time record high and there was a location in British Columbia that hit 115F yesterday sitting the all-time high-temperature record for Canada.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: JayCee on June 29, 2021, 11:15:23 AM
I never thought I would live to see the day it could hit 115F anywhere in Canada. 

The last few years we've been spared extreme summer heatwaves that persist for weeks with temperatures near or above 100.  I have a feeling our time is coming. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Bruce on June 29, 2021, 11:17:54 AM
Field corn starting  get very dry around here… needs a drink bad… ::hot::
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: StormNine on June 29, 2021, 01:01:33 PM
Field corn starting  get very dry around here… needs a drink bad… ::hot::

A large deal of Tennessee has been fairly dry this month. It has been very wet in the Deep South and very wet along I-44, but so far we have dodged the significant rains.

We do have our chances coming up in the coming days though plus southern parts of the state are getting some rain due to Danny.   
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Dyersburg Weather on June 29, 2021, 05:27:59 PM
I don’t think it has been this dry here in 3 or 4 years. Union City area got a flood last week but we missed it.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: JayCee on June 29, 2021, 05:35:18 PM
I don’t think it has been this dry here in 3 or 4 years. Union City area got a flood last week but we missed it.

Same here.  I've only seen 2.18" of rain this month.  By far, the driest June since 2016. 

A good amount of rain is in the forecast Thursday and Friday.   I'll believe it when it happens.  I've seen many a wet forecast turn to very little in reality this month. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: JayCee on June 29, 2021, 05:46:04 PM
Portland, OR hit 111F sitting an all-time record high and there was a location in British Columbia that hit 115F yesterday sitting the all-time high-temperature record for Canada.

2020 saw a record number of acres burned by wild/forest fires in the west.  Unless things change, I'd say 2021 will beat it.

I saw a news clip about the 22 year drought affecting part of the west around the Colorado River basin.  Many say this could be a new normal--the southwest becoming more arid than semi-arid.  That doesn't bode well for huge cities that depend on water from a shrinking river. 
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: Crockett on June 29, 2021, 05:49:05 PM
While there has certainly been a notable gap between the haves and have-nots in the rainfall department this month, most of Tennessee has been near-average to above-average for rainfall in June. We are above-average for June here on the northern plateau. To be fair, the bulk of the rain came in the first 10 days of the month, but I certainly wouldn't say it's been an exceptionally dry month by any means.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: JayCee on June 29, 2021, 05:59:57 PM
I think eastern areas have been drier than most from the Plateau westward.  Before the 1-1.5" of rain that fell a few weeks ago, the Drought Monitor had us in "stage 1" drought conditions (abnormally dry).  Hopefully, we'll get a good soaking later this week.
Title: Re: June 2021
Post by: JayCee on June 29, 2021, 07:30:38 PM
From NOAA:

https://www.noaa.gov/news/new-us-climate-normals-are-here-what-do-they-tell-us-about-climate-change (https://www.noaa.gov/news/new-us-climate-normals-are-here-what-do-they-tell-us-about-climate-change)