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Author Topic: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event  (Read 31984 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #45 on: April 06, 2006, 07:59:51 AM »
I doubt they'll display a high risk until tomorrow's Day 1 outlook.  They just now (in the last hour or so) upgraded part of today's moderate risk to high.  Part of that is just the uncertainty in the forecast until the event is imminent.

They did indicate that a storm complex may move across the TN valley by early tomorrow morning... as left over from today's activity... that ought to leave some outflow boundaries in place for activity later in the day tomorrow.

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #46 on: April 06, 2006, 08:08:27 AM »
Yeah, you're right...I'm jumpin' the gun... :shock:

Eric from nashvillewx

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #47 on: April 06, 2006, 08:09:07 AM »
Ron, I would love to ride shotgun but my boss may have something to say about that.  I have always wanted to go on a chase and it sounds nore and more like tomorrow will be a heckuva day to do it.  Enjoy yourself and BE SAFE!!

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #48 on: April 06, 2006, 08:09:27 AM »
Daffy always did have a fear of shotguns ;)
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

Offline Eric from nashvillewx

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #49 on: April 06, 2006, 08:18:43 AM »
Straight out of the SPC for the Plains today.  Something wicked this way comes...

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          EASTERN KANSAS
          FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
          SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
   
   SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN MISSOURI INTO
   EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
   
   A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
   MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
   WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  TO THE
   SOUTH OF THE LOW...A DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO
   THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
   
   GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE HAS BEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
   ON STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...
   REACHING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH BY THIS EVENING.
   THE STRONG FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
   CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN TWO MAIN AREAS.  
   ONE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL
   NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 100-400 PM CDT.  THESE STORMS
   WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA AND
   NORTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.  THE
   HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND
   NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...NAMELY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
   
   A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
   EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
   100-300PM.  THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
   THE DRYLINE...AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE STRONG JET STREAM ALOFT.
   THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS AS
   THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF
   ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING.  STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH.  BUT...THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
   WEATHER SYSTEMS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.
   
   THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
   THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
   TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #50 on: April 06, 2006, 08:23:52 AM »
Ron...."You're despicable!"   :wink:

Quote

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #51 on: April 06, 2006, 08:39:39 AM »
Eric, you're right....'WICKED' is a good word!!!

((shiver))

Offline Eric from nashvillewx

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #52 on: April 06, 2006, 09:46:12 AM »
Anybody know of any news channel web sites that broadcast online weather?

Offline Eric from nashvillewx

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #53 on: April 06, 2006, 09:46:38 AM »
Sorry forgot to add "from the Plains"

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #54 on: April 06, 2006, 10:01:08 AM »
I found this link from Kansas City which lists all the local media outlets:

http://www.kcweblinks.com/directory.php?c=95

Mike Siedel from The Weather Channel is doing live reporting from there today.

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #55 on: April 06, 2006, 10:09:15 AM »
Hey guys, I think you're gonna want to be looking more in the S IA, MO, S IL areas for tornados today. I've been looking over some different model info and think that will be a problem today for tornados. OK, AR will see some too, but it could be a bigger problem a little north. Expect severe convection to start firing around 1-2pm CDT.

Tomorrow is getting scarier and scarier. Current thinking is that Nashville/Mid TN will be in the bullseye of a significant severe weather outbreak with 20+ tornados of F2+ intensity. (My opinion, and not an official forecast). This all could be a huge flop though if we don't get the heating we need if the skies stay mo cloudy tomorrow, but looks like a good bet right now.

Stay tuned to NWS and local media for information... and stay tuned to Tennessee Weather Zone Forum for plenty of discussion and stay one step ahead!
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #56 on: April 06, 2006, 10:24:50 AM »
I was just looking at the visible satellite and it looks like our cloud cover will start breaking up ..We're getting a few breaks in the clouds now.

 
Quote

Offline Eric from nashvillewx

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #57 on: April 06, 2006, 10:32:32 AM »
Thanks for the link Ron.  Found a blog on Kansas City's local Fox affiliate.  He seems to echo what you think, that we will be smack dab in the middle of the rough stuff.  Here is the link if anyone is interested:

http://www.wdaftv4.com/almanac/blog/apr06blog.htm

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #58 on: April 06, 2006, 10:33:27 AM »
Yeah servo. Trigger time for storms out W of us is in a few hours.

Tomorrow is when we should be especially concerned with heating for TN. The dynamics don't really come into our area until late tonight/tomorrow.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #59 on: April 06, 2006, 10:46:30 AM »
Eric, that's a good blog to bounce back and forth to as the day progresses.

And Ron....I'm wondering if the "disclaimer" you have should be put on the header of the Forum.... :scratch

I've been really watching myself at Nashvillewx because I don't want anyone to think I'm forecasting or anything....People can take words written down as the Gospel truth...and well....You know people.... :shock:

(....oooh we've got more emoticons too..... :\O/: )

 

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