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Author Topic: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event  (Read 29660 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Friday's Storms
« Reply #30 on: April 05, 2006, 06:50:13 PM »
Quote from: "Big Country"
What is the current update on the storms expected on Friday?

Probably not a whole lot of change at this point.  It appears that there is a potentially serious threat for severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center usually releases their first daily outlooks at around midnight.  We should have a clearer picture of what to expect by tomorrow morning.
"To say you have no choice... is a failure of imagination."
                                                           - Jean Luc Picard

Offline Brandon

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #31 on: April 05, 2006, 10:51:15 PM »
Heres what East Tennessee can expect from this system...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE STORMS HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO REGENERATE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF KNOXVILLE.

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #32 on: April 06, 2006, 05:33:45 AM »
For April 7th:

Quote

Quote
SPC AC 060618
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0118 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
   ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...MUCH OF TENNESSEE...
   MISSISSIPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHERN GEORGIA...EXTREME
   SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   LA/AR/MO...ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...EAST TO WV...WRN
   VA/NC/SC...AND NWRN GA..AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
   
   ...WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE
   APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
   TN VALLEY DURING FRIDAY....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE SPRINGTIME SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   INTO DAY 2/FRIDAY AS POTENT TROUGH AND BELT OF 80-90KT MID LEVEL
   FLOW SPREAD EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS AND TN VALLEYS. THE
   FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE
   PLAINS...AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
   TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A BROAD RIDGE WILL COVER THE MUCH OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
   THE WEST COAST.
   
   NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE WILL INDUCE THE LOW
   OVER THE PLAINS TO OPEN UP AND REDEVELOP EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE MS
   VALLEY AS A FRONTAL WAVE/LOW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE LARGER SCALE
   POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC
   ZONE...SPREAD SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND ANOTHER
   FRONTAL SURFACE WAVE TRACKS EWD FROM OH TO NEW ENGLAND. GREAT LAKES
   AND TN VALLEY SHORT WAVES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE BY SATURDAY WITH
   RESULTING/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
   
   ...ERN AR/LA ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...
   GFS AND NAM APPEAR QUITE CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
   THAT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
   FRIDAY. GFS HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD A SLOWER AND MORE
   AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AND ALLOWS FOR
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING.
   
   GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT A POSSIBLE MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE
   WHAT REMAINS FROM PLAINS CONVECTION DURING DAY 1...SPREADING EAST
   AND BEING SUSTAINED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
   JET. LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL MORNING
   CONVECTION WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER THETAE AIRMASS FROM THE GULF INLAND
   ACROSS LA/ERN AR/MS/AL AND TN. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT
   LEAST MID 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THESE AREAS BENEATH A
   PLUME OF INCREASING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
   FLOW.
   
   FORCING ALONG POSSIBLE RESIDUAL MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN
   VALLEY...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   EJECTING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE ACROSS AR/LA...WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO STORM INITIATION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WILL
   FUEL ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR AND FORCING CONTINUE TO
   STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
   VERY STRONG...PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL...DEEP LAYER FLOW TO RESULT
   IN A NUMBER OF FAST MOVING BANDS...OR LINES...OF STORMS. SUPERCELLS
   APPEAR LIKELY AND ACTIVITY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...AND TRACKING
   NEAR/ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...COULD POSE A GREATER
   RISK OF TORNADOES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
   POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF STRONGER FAST-MOVING TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.
   SPECIFIC SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE
   INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
   EXPECT AIRMASS TO RECOVER ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF
   MORNING CONVECTION...OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
   POSSIBILITY OF MODEST INSTABILITY FORMING AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING
   COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG NRN STREAM
   TROUGH. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION MOVES INTO THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS FROM IL TO OH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
   TO BE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ...ERN PLAINS/MO...
   A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH HAIL COULD DEVELOP NEAR/WITHIN THE MID
   LEVEL COLD POOL AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT STORM
   INTENSITY/DURATION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/06/2006

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #33 on: April 06, 2006, 05:49:10 AM »
Forgot to add the Probabalistic Forecast Graphic:

Quote

Offline Thundersnow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #34 on: April 06, 2006, 06:06:34 AM »
I think we're in trouble.
"To say you have no choice... is a failure of imagination."
                                                           - Jean Luc Picard

Offline Thundersnow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #35 on: April 06, 2006, 06:10:37 AM »
Nashville NWS just put this statement out....

Quote
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
 530 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006
 
 WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
 FRIDAY NIGHT IT IS PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO TAKE A FEW MINUTES
 TO REVIEW SOME TORNADO SAFETY RULES. IF A TORNADO IS OBSERVED
 OR A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA...
 
 ...AND YOU ARE IN A HOME OR BUILDING...MOVE TO A PRE DESIGNATED
 SHELTER...SUCH AS A BASEMENT.
 
 ...IF AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS NOT AVAILABLE...MOVE TO AN
 INTERIOR ROOM...HALLWAY...OR BATHROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
 THE BUILDING.
 
 ...MOBILE HOMES...EVEN IF TIED DOWN...OFFER LITTLE PROTECTION FROM
 THE FORCE OF A TORNADO. ABANDON THEM...AND GO TO A PRE DESIGNATED
 SHELTER.
 
 ...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
 
 ...DO NOT TRY AND OUTRUN A TORNADO IN YOUR CAR. LEAVE YOUR
 AUTOMOBILE...AND SEEK STURDY SHELTER.
"To say you have no choice... is a failure of imagination."
                                                           - Jean Luc Picard

Offline Thundersnow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #36 on: April 06, 2006, 06:12:55 AM »
Quote
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
 520 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006
 
 TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061630-
 BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
 DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
 JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
 PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
 VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
 520 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006
 
 ...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
    ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
 
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP TODAY AND FRIDAY IN MIDDLE
 TENNESSEE...AS ANOTHER SPRING STORM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
 AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND HEADS TOWARD TENNESSEE. SOUTHERLY
 WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...AND SPREAD WARM...MOIST...AIR NORTHWARD
 FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
 SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.
 
 ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUMBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID STATE
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
 LOW. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY...AS
 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUT OF ARKANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERE
 WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND CREATE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
 THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND
 ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
 INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE MID
 STATE.
 
 IT IS ALWAYS A GOOD IDEA TO PLAN AHEAD FOR BAD WEATHER. THEREFORE...
 YOU SHOULD...CHECK TO BE SURE YOU HAVE FRESH BATTERIES IN YOUR
 WEATHER RADIO...AS WELL AT LEAST ONE FLASHLIGHT. THAT WAY YOU CAN
 STILL RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS...AND LIGHT YOUR WAY TO SHELTER...
 EVEN IF THE POWER GOES OUT.
"To say you have no choice... is a failure of imagination."
                                                           - Jean Luc Picard

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #37 on: April 06, 2006, 06:13:29 AM »
The system looked ugly ever since it was off the California coast... :shock:

Offline Thundersnow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #38 on: April 06, 2006, 06:18:10 AM »
Part of the text out of Memphis this morning...

Quote
ON FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY
 OVER MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH. THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH HAS BEEN PLACED
 UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
 ALONG WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
 MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
 FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST
 OF THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LINES OF SUPERCELL
 THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH A FEW DISCREET SUPERCELL STORMS TO RACE
 EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS
 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
 WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
 POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
.
"To say you have no choice... is a failure of imagination."
                                                           - Jean Luc Picard

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #39 on: April 06, 2006, 06:22:06 AM »
LINES OF SUPERCELLS!!!!!  LINES??????!!!!!!!!

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #40 on: April 06, 2006, 07:14:42 AM »
Yeah servo it's getting to be even more serious. The GFS started dragging out the ULL and trough so the atmosphere in the warm sector (us) has more time to destabilize. Also as I noted yesterday we will be very close to the ULL passing just to our North. SPC expects areas close to ULL to be the very highest risk for tornadic supercells. Recent knowledge also means that old outflow boundaries from Plains storms (like I noted yesterday) will be scattered across TN during the morning hours to kick off convection and those old outflow boundaries are now known to increase the severity and increase track length of tornados (see 1998 Lawrence Co F5 Report NWS OHX).

Everyone should be really watching out tomorrow. I plan to try to chase if it really hits the fan around here. Anybody else up for it? I need another camcorder - mine busted around Christmas :(
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #41 on: April 06, 2006, 07:22:49 AM »
Well, I'll be in full Mom "Calm" Mode tomorrow for my boys....grumbling at my hubby who thinks he's invincible.... :wink:

I don't have a camcorder or I'd have you borrow mine... :cry:


We do need to set up a little acronym forum...Sometimes the SPC/NWS shortcuts get me a little muddled...Things like that may help new members too.

For example:

NWS = National Weather Service
SPC = Storm Prediction Center
POP = Percent of Precipitation
ULL = ??????????

It's the ones inside the body of their discussions that get me confused.

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #42 on: April 06, 2006, 07:37:17 AM »
ULL= Upper Level Low
and PoP= Probability of Precipitation

HERE'S A LINK TO ACRONYMS THE NWS USES. ALL OF THEM!

http://www.srh.weather.gov/jetstream/append/acronyms_a.htm
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

Offline Thundersnow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #43 on: April 06, 2006, 07:49:02 AM »
This weather pattern as it is being described for our area tomorrow reminds me very much of April 16, 1998.  The SPC has already upgraded parts of Kansas and Nebraska to a high risk today.  On another message board, some are of the view that we can expect part of the moderate risk to be upgraded to high by tomorrow.  

The SPC has already hinted at that possibility as well in their Day 2 outlook...

Quote
SPECIFIC SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
"To say you have no choice... is a failure of imagination."
                                                           - Jean Luc Picard

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #44 on: April 06, 2006, 07:52:42 AM »
THANKS RON!!!!!!!  THAT'S WHAT I NEEDED!!!!

And, Thundersnow....I was wondering at what point today, this particular "high risk" info would be revealed...Sometimes the gut doesn't lie....(eegad startin' to sound like Katie Couric...ick!  :roll: )

 

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