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Author Topic: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event  (Read 31465 times)

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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2006, 12:43:45 PM »
Thought I'd post Jackson MS discussion to add to the chicken little fire:

A DEEP SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER ESTRN NE IN THE MORNING
AND BE STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO
BEGIN TO FILL IN BUT THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW FILLING IN WILL NOT BE
FELT OVER THE AREA. THIS IS B/C THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE
SE DURING THE DAY TWRDS THE BEST WAA WHICH IN ACTUALITY WILL HELP
LOWER THE SFC PRESSURE THROUGH THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. WITH GOOD
STHRLY FLOW IN THE LL EARLY IN THE MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS
TO DEAL WITH BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO THICK AND THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW THE AREA TO WARM UP
VERY QUICKLY AND WITH H925 TEMPS OF 19-22C AND H85 TEMPS OF 14-16C
HIGHS COULD EASILY APPROACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. THIS IS REALLY GOING TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
DEWPOINTS ALSO ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY
UPPER 60S. SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
GFS IS FORECASTING OVER 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...LI'S OF -5 TO NEAR
-7...H85 THETA E AIR OF 332...K INDEX ABV 40C...AND SIG SEVERE
PARAMETERS APPROACHING 60000. THESE VALUES ARE EVEN GREATER WITH THE
NAM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME VERY IMPRESSIVE NEAR 7 TO 8 C/KM
DUE TO THE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING THE H5 TEMP TO
COOL TO -14C.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #16 on: April 05, 2006, 12:57:35 PM »
SNIFF...SNIFF....Wanna make that Original or Extra Crispy....(Um...Extra Crispy will be for lots of lightning)...

 :roll:

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #17 on: April 05, 2006, 01:13:12 PM »
hey servo - be looking on the WKRN blog for some links I emailed Justin on the tornados of April 16 1998. He emailed me saying he would post them sometime before the anniversary.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #18 on: April 05, 2006, 01:18:58 PM »
COOL!!!!  I'LL BE THERE!!! 8)

Always on, y'know.... :shock:

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #19 on: April 05, 2006, 01:43:14 PM »
Latest SPC Day 2 Outlook discussion just out:

...WRN/CNTRL TN THROUGH OH VALLEY AREAS...
   
   STORMS WILL HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS THEY SPREAD
   EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED
   WITH ERN EXTENT INTO THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS
   EXPECTED ALONG THE STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM STRUCTURES
   WITHIN THE MCS. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO DAMAGING
   WIND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.


****

Looks like they've toned down the wording a bit due to the strong capping they are forecasting in models. Keep in mind this is for Thurs and Thurs evening. Friday is a whole nother ball of wax. We'll see if they still remain gung ho on the Day 3 outlook for Friday.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #20 on: April 05, 2006, 01:55:33 PM »
You know it looks like they scooched over that Moderate risk for tomorrow closer to the TN line....

Busy busy busy....

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #21 on: April 05, 2006, 02:41:19 PM »
By tomorrow evening any convection approaching MS River into TN should be consolidated into a line MCS event. Strong winds/hail/intense lightning main concern here. Discrete supercells will be the concern on Friday with the diurnal heating and good apparent instability. Latest NAM shows ULL very close to N Mid TN Friday evening which could put the real severe wx event a little farther to our south in the warm sector.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Offline Brandon

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #22 on: April 05, 2006, 04:15:00 PM »
Warning to anyone living in Tennessee, The Storms on Friday are going to be very ugly. Please stay abreast of the very latest weather situations from your local weather source. It is very possible that we could again see the risk of Tornadoes. Please prepare your plans ahead of time. More information will be posted right up to and throughout the event.

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #23 on: April 05, 2006, 04:18:38 PM »
Well, at least I did get the news, my husband is driving back from OH/IN tomorrow and NOT Friday like I first thought....so that's a big relief...

Good to see you around WDB!!! :D

Offline Brandon

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2006, 04:29:31 PM »
Quote
Good to see you around WDB!!!

Hey Thanks, Did ya survive the storms the other night. The one evening that was not very bad, I in Chapel Hill and the funnel came right through down. Awesome Show. Big Day coming on Friday.

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #25 on: April 05, 2006, 04:49:05 PM »
Wow WDB. I'm glad to know you're still alive :)  

I haven't seen you on since Winter season.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #26 on: April 05, 2006, 04:49:06 PM »
Yeah, we did pretty good....I heard and saw the hail banging down, I heard that "roar"...the quiet, but mercifully, the funnel decided to stay up in the sky.  Nothing to show for it except some downed leaves, branches, and fatigue!

Incredible light show; hadn't heard hail like that for YEARS....

My spidey sense has been heightened all day about Friday.... :shock:   I do need to get some more batteries before Friday.  I have a radio that has the TV and weatherbands on it, but I can't pick up NOAA unless I'm outside in a clear area...and GOOD LUCK WITH THAT IN A SUPERCELL!!!!  It's great if the stations are doing 'wall-to-wall', but if they're just doing crawls across the bottom...well....

I'll spend tomorrow making our closet a little more comfy...I got a feeling we're going to be there quite a bit....

Offline Brandon

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #27 on: April 05, 2006, 05:00:51 PM »
Well Servocrow, over the past few years things have been worst in the Tornado Department. We have decided to go ahead and put us in a tornado shelter. If anyone else would like to check one out here is a link.
Has great comparisons of all the companies.

http://www.tornadoproject.com/safety/moreonshelters.htm

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #28 on: April 05, 2006, 05:18:00 PM »
Thanks WDB!  I bookmarked it and am also going to give the link to my neighbor....She was talking about getting a tornado shelter because she couldn't stand being cooped up in the tiny closet with her hubby and kids....and cats and dog....

Offline Big Country

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Friday's Storms
« Reply #29 on: April 05, 2006, 05:58:23 PM »
What is the current update on the storms expected on Friday?

 

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