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Author Topic: Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event  (Read 31462 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« on: April 04, 2006, 07:21:40 AM »
The Storm Prediction Center is indicating "severe weather likely" over much of the Southeast including Tennessee on Friday and Saturday April 7-8:

Quote
  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 AM CDT TUE APR 04 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
   
   DEEP LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT EWD
   
   FROM OH VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY/DAY 4 THROUGH SATURDAY/DAY
   5. STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD INTO
   MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE UPPER TX GULF
   COAST...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORCING AND
   SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUGGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   LIKELY FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE IN
   THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG LATEST
   DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH RESPECT TO LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND FLOW
   ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
   SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
   SUNDAY/MONDAY. NEXT POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE INDICATED BY EVENING
   GUIDANCE IS A STRONG TROUGH THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST BY
   MONDAY. HEIGHT FALLS AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
   PLAINS AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM POTENTIAL NEXT
   TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...DAYS 7/8. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IS NOT HIGH
   ENOUGH AT THAT FORECAST RANGE TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/04/2006

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2006, 01:24:15 PM »
Let it roll :)

I may have to get out and chase some if this looks like a sure thing.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2006, 02:07:28 PM »
Just don't eat at Jack-in-the-Box first!!!! :wink:

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2006, 02:20:34 PM »
Thanks servo.

I don't think I'll be making that same mistake twice.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2006, 08:03:44 AM »
This keeps looking like it could get ugly for us on Friday, what do y'all think? :?:

Offline Thundersnow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2006, 08:41:02 AM »
We're now showing up in the bullseye of the Day 3 severe weather outlook (for Friday, April 7)...

Quote



   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 AM CDT WED APR 05 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE
   MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...AND PARTS OF NERN KS
   AND NRN MO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPLEX UPPER FLOW REGIME EVOLVES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S.
   FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE STRONG OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS
   WILL OPEN UP AND BE SHUNTED ESEWD ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS AS A
   STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ERN GREAT
   LAKES...AND LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. STRONG LOW
   LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
   THE DAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...THE
   EJECTING PLAINS LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ESEWD
   INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE MID/LOWER MS
   VALLEY...ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
   
   ...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...
   SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE REGION OF THE MID-SOUTH ON
   FRIDAY
AS A BELT OF STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WITH EJECTING SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS
   TO SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ORIGINATING
   ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 2 WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MS/TN
   VALLEY WITH CAPPING ACROSS THESE AREAS LIKELY TO KEEP CONVECTION
   LIMITED UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES DURING THE PERIOD OF
   INCREASING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. COMBINATION OF MODEST
   INSTABILITY...A NUMBER OF FOCUSING MECHANISMS INCLUDING SURFACE LOW
   AND FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND POTENTIALLY VERY
   STRONG SHEAR ALL POINT TOWARD A DEVELOPING...AND POSSIBLY
   SUBSTANTIAL...SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA. FAST
   UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW COULD RESULT IN FAST MOVING BANDS OR
   LINES OF STORMS/SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
   PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

   
   GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES IMPORTANT
   TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED TSTMS...IT IS TOO SOON TO OUTLOOK
   AREAS WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE. LATEST INDICATIONS
   SUGGEST THAT THE TN/OH VALLEY AREAS MAY SEE MORE NUMEROUS INTENSE
   STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATER FORECASTS SHOULD
   PROVIDE BETTER DETAIL.
   
   ...ERN KS/NRN MO...
   COLD CORE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON WITH SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT...WEAKLY CAPPED...CAPE. WHILE
   SHEAR WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE WEAK...A FEW RELATIVELY
   LOW-TOPPED CELLS WITH HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE.

Even though we're currently in the "slight" risk, this is still three days out, and if current trends continue, I wouldn't be surprised if we are later upgraded to at least a moderate risk.

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2006, 09:06:45 AM »
Thanks for posting that TS. I was about to update the site too.

I think we'll see a PDS issued for a major outbreak of tornados in the Plains tomorrow. It would be a good storm chase event.

By Friday, I think if the models continue to trend to a sheared environment, and we can get some diurnal heating going, we could very well see another significant weather event here in TN.
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2006, 09:11:40 AM »
I hate it on days when my husband has to be "ENROUTE".  If he's somewhere and not having to drive or fly, I can handle it better....He'll be driving this time so maybe he can get home early enough before the Bradford Pears hit the fan....

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2006, 09:27:45 AM »
Tomorrow's moderate risk is sooooo expansive...And even the Graphical Hazardous Outlook on the Nashville NWS site has changed for us too for tomorrow...

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2006, 09:53:21 AM »
A truly scary discussion is taking place on another met forum. There are several pro mets that hang out there and here is one of their maps:

Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2006, 10:00:48 AM »
Now, daggone it, Ron....You're gonna make me go to Kroger aren't you?
 :shock:

Personally....and it's just a gut, bad feeling.....I just see one of those little "High Risk" slivers coming up...I don't know what's making me feel that way.  If you look at maps of the way this system is coming through, it looks similiar to me to the April 3-4, 1974 scenario....
 :shock:

But I'm probably off my nut...I've had a rough week. :roll:   It's just a stupid feeling...

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2006, 11:30:23 AM »
Sorry for the bad news servo, but I do have a question.

Do you go to Kroger every time a stressful situation arises?  :D
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2006, 11:35:20 AM »
:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

Yeah...well.....it's kinda the closest store.  And I always need groceries, but it's mainly just a running joke.

And today, I'm just a little tired and couldn't think of anything else witty to say...

 :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:  :roll:

Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2006, 11:37:02 AM »
:D That's cool. We've got to figure out an alternative to the Snowballs though. Hmm... Doesn't KFC have a Twister or something?  :P
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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servocrow

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Discussion: April 7-8 Severe Weather Event
« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2006, 11:44:04 AM »
Oh...yeah....It is a Twister!!  Looks yummy..... :)

I'm hungry....

 :lol:

 

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