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Author Topic: La Niña 2024-2025  (Read 413 times)

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Offline Curt

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La Niña 2024-2025
« on: May 21, 2024, 11:24:52 AM »
Thought I would start discussion on the upcoming La Niña state through the summer, fall, and into winter. Region 1.2 is already in moderate La Niña territory while the rest of the PAC is normal. It’s super early to guess where this is going - but we are starting to get a glimpse. Most LR modeling has backed off on a strong La Niña and now prefers moderate with 3.4 averaging - 1.2-1.3 range come late Fall as its peak. Models had been too aggressive 3 months ago in cooling the entire PAC which is probably why it’s showing a moderate event. This one also looks east based for now.

Offline StormNine

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Re: La Niña 2024-2025
« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2024, 05:40:02 PM »
One thing that I have noticed here recently is that El-Nino's tend to get a bit underestimated and La-Nina's a bit overestimated.

If you are around in 2016, you probably remember a lot of hype about a potential moderate to strong La-Nina for 2016-17. That never happened as it just cooled over right at the cool neutral/weak Nina border. 

With that being said we are in a background state -PDO, which may drive it stronger.

Still this could go either way.   

Offline Curt

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Re: La Niña 2024-2025
« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2024, 05:47:48 PM »
One thing that I have noticed here recently is that El-Nino's tend to get a bit underestimated and La-Nina's a bit overestimated.

If you are around in 2016, you probably remember a lot of hype about a potential moderate to strong La-Nina for 2016-17. That never happened as it just cooled over right at the cool neutral/weak Nina border. 

With that being said we are in a background state -PDO, which may drive it stronger.

Still this could go either way.
May be temporary, but a couple seasonal models are forecasting a positive PDO next winter. Could just be a diamond in the rough.

Online Bruce

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Re: La Niña 2024-2025
« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2024, 06:20:43 PM »
One thing that I have noticed here recently is that El-Nino's tend to get a bit underestimated and La-Nina's a bit overestimated.

If you are around in 2016, you probably remember a lot of hype about a potential moderate to strong La-Nina for 2016-17. That never happened as it just cooled over right at the cool neutral/weak Nina border. 

With that being said we are in a background state -PDO, which may drive it stronger.

Still this could go either way.
negative  pdo favor s  severe weather correct ?
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Curt

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Re: La Niña 2024-2025
« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2024, 07:56:06 PM »
Latest enso models continue to cluster the peak Nina conditions in 3.4 to around 1.0 this winter- borderline weak to moderate. This is a far cry from the super Nina state it was showing 3 months ago. Early winter thoughts are overall warm but with a negative PDO- should be some volatility though.

 

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