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Author Topic: May 6-8 Severe Risks  (Read 10067 times)

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Offline TNHunter

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Re: May 6-8 Severe Risks
« Reply #405 on: May 10, 2024, 07:58:45 AM »
How would most classify that event for TN?  I wouldn't call it a bust, maybe a semi verified event compared to what lots of models and people were predicting.  It definitely could have been worse on a widespread scale. 

Offline Cody029

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Re: May 6-8 Severe Risks
« Reply #406 on: May 10, 2024, 08:12:04 AM »
How would most classify that event for TN?  I wouldn't call it a bust, maybe a semi verified event compared to what lots of models and people were predicting.  It definitely could have been worse on a widespread scale.
I would call it a bust in regards to where the mod was placed but a over achiever in the southern Middle Tennessee area. The flooding was the bigger topic for the north and the western areas kind of just dodged a bullet overall imo. But just like the day or two before with the high risk out west that some could call a bust the dynamics was there and thats really all they can go off of. No one can really predict the future we just read models or whatever else the nws and spc reads and place forecast from that and in both cases what they called for was warrented.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: May 6-8 Severe Risks
« Reply #407 on: May 10, 2024, 08:24:04 AM »
I would call it a bust in regards to where the mod was placed but a over achiever in the southern Middle Tennessee area. The flooding was the bigger topic for the north and the western areas kind of just dodged a bullet overall imo. But just like the day or two before with the high risk out west that some could call a bust the dynamics was there and thats really all they can go off of. No one can really predict the future we just read models or whatever else the nws and spc reads and place forecast from that and in both cases what they called for was warrented.

Agreed.  Most times with every weather event rain, snow, severe the models overdo everything.  I guess as long as most keep that in mind it keeps the events realistic.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2024, 08:56:20 AM by TNHunter »

Offline InMemphis

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Re: May 6-8 Severe Risks
« Reply #408 on: May 10, 2024, 08:57:52 AM »
The cap staying in place really helped West Tennessee. The potential was there for some major issues.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: May 6-8 Severe Risks
« Reply #409 on: May 10, 2024, 09:11:43 AM »
How would most classify that event for TN?  I wouldn't call it a bust, maybe a semi verified event compared to what lots of models and people were predicting.  It definitely could have been worse on a widespread scale.


Imo not a bust even the slightest bit. When you account for wind damage and also hail reports this event verified 100%

We had a significant/strong tornado, and at the minimum, and additional handful across middle TN. I think what people fail to understand is that we had a 10% hatched tornado risk zone. So that means that there is a 10% chance of a tornado happening within 25 miles of any give point in that zone (hatched means a 10% chance that tornado is strong too)

Given we had a tornado in Springfield, one in Columbia, one in Eagleville, and definitely more (Elkton, possibly Carthage) that 10% chance within a 25 mile radius really verifies
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: May 6-8 Severe Risks
« Reply #410 on: May 10, 2024, 12:11:46 PM »
Anyone have a link to storm survey info and progress?

This is usually posted on the NWS WFO page, but I’m not seeing anything about it.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2024, 12:26:32 PM by Thundersnow »

Offline Charles L.

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Re: May 6-8 Severe Risks
« Reply #411 on: May 10, 2024, 01:19:15 PM »
Preliminary data on Giles County tornado is that it was an EF-2 with winds upwards of 115 mph and had a max width of 600 yards.

So that makes two strong tornadoes in the OHX CWA for this event. Still other storm surveys ongoing
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Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: May 6-8 Severe Risks
« Reply #412 on: May 10, 2024, 05:05:24 PM »
How would most classify that event for TN?  I wouldn't call it a bust, maybe a semi verified event compared to what lots of models and people were predicting.  It definitely could have been worse on a widespread scale.

Could have been worse, yes, but not a bust, imo.

Offline gcbama

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Re: May 6-8 Severe Risks
« Reply #413 on: May 10, 2024, 06:22:19 PM »
I would call it a bust in regards to where the mod was placed but a over achiever in the southern Middle Tennessee area. The flooding was the bigger topic for the north and the western areas kind of just dodged a bullet overall imo. But just like the day or two before with the high risk out west that some could call a bust the dynamics was there and thats really all they can go off of. No one can really predict the future we just read models or whatever else the nws and spc reads and place forecast from that and in both cases what they called for was warrented.

The mod risk as a few of us mentioned prior to the event was too far north, a few of us mentioned hwy 64 corridor to kentucky line seemed to be where the models were hinting at.....as the event began it seemed that supercells would stay around i-40 however the most unstable area was a bit farther south hence why i think more activity was down this way....but not a bust as far as what happened, two strong tornadoes and a few other tornadoes combined with the amount of wind and hail damage verifies imo.

Oklahoma situation the other day imo is another high risk bust.....it happens, parameters were there , it just did not pan out

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: May 6-8 Severe Risks
« Reply #414 on: May 14, 2024, 05:57:54 AM »

Offline StormNine

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Re: May 6-8 Severe Risks
« Reply #415 on: May 15, 2024, 05:05:53 PM »
I thought the SPC outlook for last Wednesday was on-point and one of the better-verifying outlooks, they even put a 15% hatched in Southern TN/Northern AL at 7pm right as that part was about to kick off, and that late-night change is not something we have seen from them in a while (and was often a point of sometimes valid criticism toward the SPC).  Nearly 60 out of the 65 tornado reports of that day occurred in a SPC Moderate or Enhanced Risk zone.   

What was predicted, largely occurred, which was a widespread severe weather event with all-hazards, and a conditional but legit strong tornado threat depending on the exact storm mode.

This definitely was not a 5/6 back in Oklahoma, which outside of one tornado never really got going, or a March 2020 or Nov 2016 in our area where there was a deadly EF-3+ tornado running around in a Marginal Risk zone for some reason.     


 

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