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Author Topic: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk  (Read 5734 times)

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Offline cgauxknox

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April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« on: April 01, 2024, 06:56:35 AM »
With essentially the whole state under a slight or enhanced risk for severe storms tomorrow I thought I'd take mamMATTus' suggestion and start the thread.

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Offline Bruce

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Re: 50th Anniversary of Super Outbreak 1974
« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2024, 08:41:57 AM »
I can definitely see a moderate risk coming for day 2 threat if latest short range is on to something … from bout around Nashville up through Ohio valley region….. central Kentucky southern ohio.
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2024, 08:48:20 AM »
seems there could be a short lived hour or two window for discrete or semi-discrete cells tomorrow right over midstate region

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2024, 09:00:51 AM »
seems there could be a short lived hour or two window for discrete or semi-discrete cells tomorrow right over midstate region

Yep but it appears to be a very short window. 12z HRRR is basically all linear. I was thinking of driving up to Manchester to kind of station as a home base to chase.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2024, 09:58:04 AM »
I have a gut feeling this is really going to ramp up for the TN/AL/GA border areas at the last minute.

Offline Woodvegas

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2024, 10:22:03 AM »
SPC/NWS tornado risk and STP maps from the 12Z HRRR run…
Note: A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1.

« Last Edit: April 01, 2024, 11:56:48 AM by Woodvegas »
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Offline TNHunter

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2024, 11:23:16 AM »
I have a gut feeling this is really going to ramp up for the TN/AL/GA border areas at the last minute.

Yea that wouldn’t surprise me.  Middle Tennessee has been in an active cycle last few.

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2024, 11:36:01 AM »
Spc. Just went moderate risk back west two thirds Oklahoma for day 1
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2024, 11:45:52 AM »
Spc. Just went moderate risk back west two thirds Oklahoma for day 1

for large hail

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2024, 11:57:32 AM »
for large hail
gorilla hail …lol
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #10 on: April 01, 2024, 12:00:16 PM »
for large hail
bigger tornado risk will be tomorrow …with increasing Lower level jet streak taking shape ….
« Last Edit: April 01, 2024, 12:08:25 PM by Bruce »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline stayrose38

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #11 on: April 01, 2024, 12:04:55 PM »
Let me know when a Home Depot level jet streak happens...  ::rofl::
"When an infinitely small variation of the present state will alter only by an infinitely small quantity the state at some future time, the condition of the system, whether at rest or in motion, is said to be stable but when an infinitely small variation in the present state may bring about a finite difference in the state of the system in a finite time, the system is said to be unstable."
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Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2024, 12:17:57 PM »
imo north of bowling green as of now has the highest tornado potential tomorrow...obviously everybody needs to pay attention though

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2024, 01:11:39 PM »
The latest SPC outlook, does show where I think the highest tornado threat is going to be.

Things get linear quicker for us and the better-backed winds will be in the E IN/N KY/OH region.  With that being said there is enough instability/moisture return with a stronger low-pressure system to where we need to watch for spinups. We may have a brief window where things are semi-discrete before we line up as well. 

Not saying we will see this here, but we have had EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes with QLCS events before.   

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2, 2024 Severe Risk
« Reply #14 on: April 01, 2024, 01:15:51 PM »
The latest SPC outlook, does show where I think the highest tornado threat is going to be.

Things get linear quicker for us and the better-backed winds will be in the E IN/N KY/OH region.  With that being said there is enough instability/moisture return with a stronger low-pressure system to where we need to watch for spinups. We may have a brief window where things are semi-discrete before we line up as well. 

Not saying we will see this here, but we have had EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes with QLCS events before.

agreed for now north of here is the bigger threat, but still watching close here

 

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