*

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length


Author Topic: 2024 Hurricane Season  (Read 3673 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline cgauxknox

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,372
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 861
2024 Hurricane Season
« on: February 22, 2024, 08:38:22 AM »
Yes, it's still February, but the first discussions of the 2024 hurricane season are starting to show up. Water temperatures in the Atlantic are staying high, so we may have an early start to the season. In addition, NOAA is giving us a 74% chance of a La Nina being in place through hurricane season, which will decrease wind shear in the Atlantic and improve the chances of tropical development over already warm water.

Official predictions will be coming out later in the year, but the initial signals say we may be in for a rough ride this year.

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,910
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2024, 07:25:45 PM »
Potentially a very rough season, especially in Mexico/Central America and potentially the East Coast especially Sept and afterward. 

If Dry-air and SAL (Sahara Dust) is tamed then all bets are off due to likely lower shear and warm to very warm water temperatures. 

Offline Jilly

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 314
  • Location: E. DeKalb County, elev. 1001 ft.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 211
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2024, 02:42:30 PM »

Effective March 5, 2024, at 4:00 PM Eastern Standard Time, 2100 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), the boundaries between Offshore Pacific Marine Forecast Zones PZZ840, PZZ940 and PZZ945 (Ocean Prediction Center) and PMZ009 and PMZ011 (Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch) will be adjusted from 29 degrees North to 30 degrees North. The Zone numbers will not change and the names will change only to reflect the change in the boundaries.

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2023_24/scn23-114_tafb_opc_zone_changes_032024.pdf
KR4EE

Offline cgauxknox

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,372
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 861
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2024, 06:08:44 AM »
CSU has released their first prediction for hurricane season, and as expected, it's a heavy one:

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It's a first forecast, but does indicate what the mets are seeing in terms of overall atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a tough season.

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,390
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 840

Offline cgauxknox

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,372
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 861

Offline Nash_LSU

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 389
  • Location: Nashville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2024, 10:38:54 AM »
I've got my eyes on the Gulf Coast. GFS wants to spin something up. Other models are pointing to lots and lots of rain.

Offline cgauxknox

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,372
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 861
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2024, 02:07:40 PM »
I've got my eyes on the Gulf Coast. GFS wants to spin something up. Other models are pointing to lots and lots of rain.
Either a TD or TS looks very likely now. Regardless of wind speeds, there could be huge rainfall amounts along the Texas coast.

Offline cgauxknox

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,372
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 861
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2024, 08:35:48 AM »
Things seem to be heating up as we've got a Tropical Storm Warning in place for Texas and possible development of a system moving towards the SE coast by the end of the week.

With the hot, dry pattern settling in I wonder if we're going to end up needing a tropical system later in the summer as a drought buster for some areas.

Offline cgauxknox

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,372
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 861
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #9 on: June 19, 2024, 10:49:42 AM »
We now have the first named storm of the season, TS Alberto.

Offline Nash_LSU

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 389
  • Location: Nashville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2024, 03:15:50 PM »
drought vs NAM projected rainfall (Most models are similarish in coverage. just picked this one).




Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,910
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2024, 09:16:10 PM »
Mexico has been having a lot of drought issues as well.   That is where a large part of this mega ridge that is going to torture us this summer/early fall comes from.   

I do think the TX coast will have its shots at tropical waves and even a tropical system or two as we go throughout the season.   

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 13,390
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 840
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #12 on: June 20, 2024, 08:45:05 AM »
Alberto is onshore in Mexico.

Offline Nash_LSU

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 389
  • Location: Nashville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2024, 08:27:49 PM »
Still a long ways out and in fantasy-land, but I'm not liking this. My wife is supposed to go to Cancun that weekend, and Lord knows she needs the vacation.




Offline cgauxknox

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,372
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 861
Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2024, 06:54:19 AM »
Invest 95L has a good chance of developing this weekend, which could give us TS Beryl. It's days away from the Caribbean, and even farther away from getting into the Gulf, but it's got a healthy environment ahead of it and needs to be watched.

 

*

Hot and Steamy (July 2024)
by StormNine
[Today at 04:31:51 PM]
Major Hurricane Beryl
by Bruce
[July 10, 2024, 08:27:56 AM]
Common Links
by bugalou
[July 03, 2024, 10:49:00 PM]
June 2024
by Woodvegas
[July 01, 2024, 05:36:50 PM]
2024 Hurricane Season
by Thundersnow
[July 01, 2024, 08:57:19 AM]