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Author Topic: 2024 Hurricane Season  (Read 2328 times)

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Offline cgauxknox

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2024 Hurricane Season
« on: February 22, 2024, 08:38:22 AM »
Yes, it's still February, but the first discussions of the 2024 hurricane season are starting to show up. Water temperatures in the Atlantic are staying high, so we may have an early start to the season. In addition, NOAA is giving us a 74% chance of a La Nina being in place through hurricane season, which will decrease wind shear in the Atlantic and improve the chances of tropical development over already warm water.

Official predictions will be coming out later in the year, but the initial signals say we may be in for a rough ride this year.

Offline StormNine

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Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2024, 07:25:45 PM »
Potentially a very rough season, especially in Mexico/Central America and potentially the East Coast especially Sept and afterward. 

If Dry-air and SAL (Sahara Dust) is tamed then all bets are off due to likely lower shear and warm to very warm water temperatures. 

Offline Jilly

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Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2024, 02:42:30 PM »

Effective March 5, 2024, at 4:00 PM Eastern Standard Time, 2100 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), the boundaries between Offshore Pacific Marine Forecast Zones PZZ840, PZZ940 and PZZ945 (Ocean Prediction Center) and PMZ009 and PMZ011 (Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch) will be adjusted from 29 degrees North to 30 degrees North. The Zone numbers will not change and the names will change only to reflect the change in the boundaries.

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2023_24/scn23-114_tafb_opc_zone_changes_032024.pdf
KR4EE

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2024 Hurricane Season
« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2024, 06:08:44 AM »
CSU has released their first prediction for hurricane season, and as expected, it's a heavy one:

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It's a first forecast, but does indicate what the mets are seeing in terms of overall atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a tough season.

Offline Thundersnow

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Offline cgauxknox

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