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Author Topic: Feb 2024 Thread  (Read 21473 times)

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Offline Bruce

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #330 on: February 20, 2024, 03:24:53 PM »
Klzk. Little Rock starting hint at the big severe weather system next week i this afternoon’s afd
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #331 on: February 20, 2024, 03:46:49 PM »
The next 15 days looks nice, no highs below 55.  Pretty incredible for this time of year. This has actually been a nice February.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #332 on: February 20, 2024, 05:33:14 PM »
The next 15 days looks nice, no highs below 55.  Pretty incredible for this time of year. This has actually been a nice February.

For the second year in a row, we will set some Top 10 if not Top 5 warmest February records across our areas. I wouldn't be surprised to even see March do that.   

Offline snowdog

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #333 on: February 20, 2024, 06:15:22 PM »
I was worried we might follow last years pattern, which was basically one week of winter and and a coming pattern change on the horizon that never came. We shall see but the later this gets pushed into Feb, climatology starts making significant cold and snow less and less likely.

The coming pattern change that never really came. A lot of Feb forecasts busted this year. Nature of the beast. Mother Nature always has a few tricks up her sleeve.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #334 on: February 20, 2024, 07:04:58 PM »
The coming pattern change that never really came. A lot of Feb forecasts busted this year. Nature of the beast. Mother Nature always has a few tricks up her sleeve.

That’s right, Mother Nature is always in charge and will always and forever throw curveballs.

Offline Bruce

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #335 on: February 21, 2024, 07:47:04 AM »
Per SPC morning discussion  4 to 8 day outlook , they sound like they r going  break out the crayons n   highlight a rather large area by tomorrow discussion . Per next weeks system. The gfs seems bit faster more strung out. The euro is more potent with a phase system n rather robust



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Offline Bruce

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #336 on: February 21, 2024, 05:16:16 PM »
Some gut wrenching runs today on the models for next weeks big system… ::coffee::
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Online stayrose38

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #337 on: February 21, 2024, 08:36:53 PM »
looks like straight line front to me.. things aren't slowing down enough in the flow for a super outbreak.
"When an infinitely small variation of the present state will alter only by an infinitely small quantity the state at some future time, the condition of the system, whether at rest or in motion, is said to be stable but when an infinitely small variation in the present state may bring about a finite difference in the state of the system in a finite time, the system is said to be unstable."
James Clerk Maxwell

Offline Bruce

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #338 on: February 21, 2024, 09:15:16 PM »
looks like straight line front to me.. things aren't slowing down enough in the flow for a super outbreak.
might want to do a double take
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Curt

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Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #339 on: February 21, 2024, 09:16:16 PM »
Gut tells me winter is over- but maybe not cool and rainy. Just in time for me to be ready for outdoor patio weather. Have to say- January was well below normal and above normal snowfall. One last thrill would be nice but - t shirt weather before the heat turns up is nice.

Online stayrose38

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #340 on: February 21, 2024, 09:16:44 PM »
too early.. I'll place my bets against.
"When an infinitely small variation of the present state will alter only by an infinitely small quantity the state at some future time, the condition of the system, whether at rest or in motion, is said to be stable but when an infinitely small variation in the present state may bring about a finite difference in the state of the system in a finite time, the system is said to be unstable."
James Clerk Maxwell

Offline Bruce

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #341 on: February 21, 2024, 09:22:06 PM »
too early.. I'll place my bets against.
hate to take your money ….
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Online stayrose38

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #342 on: February 21, 2024, 09:23:54 PM »
GEFS looks more like Early Spring, rather than severe.... Late March into April, who knows..
"When an infinitely small variation of the present state will alter only by an infinitely small quantity the state at some future time, the condition of the system, whether at rest or in motion, is said to be stable but when an infinitely small variation in the present state may bring about a finite difference in the state of the system in a finite time, the system is said to be unstable."
James Clerk Maxwell

Offline StormNine

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #343 on: February 22, 2024, 04:07:01 AM »
We are highlighted in the Day 7 outlook (next Wed).

The potential is there for severe weather in our area, with multiple days of ample moisture return and a pretty ample trough.

With that being said there are major questions, especially in relation to timing and phasing of the northern stream and the subtropical jet. There is a lot of energy flying around on both jets that models are going to struggle with. These differences are so huge that they mean the difference between a legit outbreak covering about 10-12 states versus a more localized to scattered run-of-the-mill event.   

It probably won't be until Sunday or even Monday before we start to know the difference and pick up the areas of even greater threat if they exist.


Offline Bruce

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Re: Feb 2024 Thread
« Reply #344 on: February 22, 2024, 04:28:01 AM »
We are highlighted in the Day 7 outlook (next Wed).

The potential is there for severe weather in our area, with multiple days of ample moisture return and a pretty ample trough.

With that being said there are major questions, especially in relation to timing and phasing of the northern stream and the subtropical jet. There is a lot of energy flying around on both jets that models are going to struggle with. These differences are so huge that they mean the difference between a legit outbreak covering about 10-12 states versus a more localized to scattered run-of-the-mill event.   

It probably won't be until Sunday or even Monday before we start to know the difference and pick up the areas of even greater threat if they exist.
this one looks legit thus far . If consistency counts … this has the instability n cape of a late April system .
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

 

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