Winter 2023 - 2024.5

[Nashville_Wx]

Let it begin

[Bruce]

We. We need start seeing more snow cover in the upper part of the us….  Little slow building this year

[Golfmankevin]

We. We need start seeing more snow cover in the upper part of the us….  Little slow building this year

If this is your typical niño, winter should start for us mid January because most are back loaded. Of course no guarantees

[stayrose38]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PnXts0Ni8I&list=RDMM&index=17

[Nash_LSU]

The Canadian model has been trying to push some white stuff down our way around the 28th-29th. It's an outlier, it's trending the wrong way, and I don't buy it, but it's fun to see some brief glimmers of winter weather out there.

[Michael]

Let it begin

11 year thread? 

[Curt]

All El Niño winters with a negative QBO.  Courtesy of Weather Bell

[Golfmankevin]

All El Niño winters with a negative QBO.  Courtesy of Weather Bell

Do you know if any of those easterly qbo El niño winters had a SSW? Typically from what I've heard that -qbo make it easier to have SSW.

[StormNine]

I still think that December is still going to be solidly warmer than average, but I'm not seeing any 1982, 2015, 2018, or 2022-type blowtorching. 

A neutral to -NAO the first 1/3rd of the month should help moderate things as well.   

The subtropical jet looks to have found its home now from South TX and along I-10.

The next few weeks with the evolution of the El-Nino (both in strength and whether it becomes more west-based vs staying basin-wide) will determine whether this winter will be a copy and paste of El-Nino climo or something different/potentially more wintry in mid-Jan to late-Feb.     

[Bruce]

I still think that December is still going to be solidly warmer than average, but I'm not seeing any 1982, 2015, 2018, or 2022-type blowtorching. 

A neutral to -NAO the first 1/3rd of the month should help moderate things as well.   

The subtropical jet looks to have found its home now from South TX and along I-10.

The next few weeks with the evolution of the El-Nino (both in strength and whether it becomes more west-based vs staying basin-wide) will determine whether this winter will be a copy and paste of El-Nino climo or something different/potentially more wintry in mid-Jan to late-Feb.   

mid January when we see our first legit threat of winter weather

[Bruce]

First half at least December looks warmer than average …. Things start change as we draw closer end of December

[stayrose38]

once again, my Winter Forecast is officially out: I have no idea what's going to happen. Leaning towards AN temps, BN snowfall, and AN rain. I'm still convinced kinks in longwave patterns that result in extreme weather in our area are completely random and unpredictable. Carry on, weather loving soldiers..

[Clarksville Snowman]

I actually think we will have a active winter weather pattern from Mid January through most if not all of February. That doesn’t mean wall to wall winter, probably some cold rains and near misses for a lot of our area. But the odds of timing up with colder air just right will be higher than normal. I do think a lot if not all our area will see 1-2 possibly more good winter weather events. I think those 2 months are going to be fun to watch. Some of our biggest big dog snows come when we time up right in El Niño’s.

[Bruce]

I actually think we will have a active winter weather pattern from Mid January through most if not all of February. That doesn’t mean wall to wall winter, probably some cold rains and near misses for a lot of our area. But the odds of timing up with colder air just right will be higher than normal. I do think a lot if not all our area will see 1-2 possibly more good winter weather events. I think those 2 months are going to be fun to watch. Some of our biggest big dog snows come when we time up right in El Niño’s.

most January into February looking very interesting to me ….  Could be time break the ole sleds out ⛄️!

[Thundersnow]

I predict it will snow at some point between 2023 and 2034.