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Author Topic: Winter 2023 - 2024  (Read 25373 times)

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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Winter 2023 - 2024
« on: November 20, 2023, 09:39:32 AM »
Let it begin
« Last Edit: December 28, 2023, 10:22:32 AM by Nashville_Wx »


Offline Bruce

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2023, 10:51:03 AM »
We. We need start seeing more snow cover in the upper part of the us….  Little slow building this year
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Mr. Kevin

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2023, 12:02:44 PM »
We. We need start seeing more snow cover in the upper part of the us….  Little slow building this year
If this is your typical niño, winter should start for us mid January because most are back loaded. Of course no guarantees

Offline stayrose38

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"When an infinitely small variation of the present state will alter only by an infinitely small quantity the state at some future time, the condition of the system, whether at rest or in motion, is said to be stable but when an infinitely small variation in the present state may bring about a finite difference in the state of the system in a finite time, the system is said to be unstable."
James Clerk Maxwell

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2023, 01:03:48 PM »
The Canadian model has been trying to push some white stuff down our way around the 28th-29th. It's an outlier, it's trending the wrong way, and I don't buy it, but it's fun to see some brief glimmers of winter weather out there.

Offline Michael

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2023, 01:28:10 PM »
January 15, 2024 - 8" (Biggest snowfall in 28 years)

Offline Curt

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Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2023, 07:10:07 PM »



All El Niño winters with a negative QBO.  Courtesy of Weather Bell

Offline Mr. Kevin

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2023, 09:39:10 PM »



All El Niño winters with a negative QBO.  Courtesy of Weather Bell
Do you know if any of those easterly qbo El niño winters had a SSW? Typically from what I've heard that -qbo make it easier to have SSW.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2023, 11:45:05 AM »
I still think that December is still going to be solidly warmer than average, but I'm not seeing any 1982, 2015, 2018, or 2022-type blowtorching. 

A neutral to -NAO the first 1/3rd of the month should help moderate things as well.   

The subtropical jet looks to have found its home now from South TX and along I-10.

The next few weeks with the evolution of the El-Nino (both in strength and whether it becomes more west-based vs staying basin-wide) will determine whether this winter will be a copy and paste of El-Nino climo or something different/potentially more wintry in mid-Jan to late-Feb.     

Offline Bruce

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2023, 04:16:52 AM »
I still think that December is still going to be solidly warmer than average, but I'm not seeing any 1982, 2015, 2018, or 2022-type blowtorching. 

A neutral to -NAO the first 1/3rd of the month should help moderate things as well.   

The subtropical jet looks to have found its home now from South TX and along I-10.

The next few weeks with the evolution of the El-Nino (both in strength and whether it becomes more west-based vs staying basin-wide) will determine whether this winter will be a copy and paste of El-Nino climo or something different/potentially more wintry in mid-Jan to late-Feb.   
mid January when we see our first legit threat of winter weather
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2023, 05:24:31 PM »
First half at least December looks warmer than average …. Things start change as we draw closer end of December
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline stayrose38

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2023, 10:00:32 AM »
once again, my Winter Forecast is officially out: I have no idea what's going to happen. Leaning towards AN temps, BN snowfall, and AN rain. I'm still convinced kinks in longwave patterns that result in extreme weather in our area are completely random and unpredictable. Carry on, weather loving soldiers..
"When an infinitely small variation of the present state will alter only by an infinitely small quantity the state at some future time, the condition of the system, whether at rest or in motion, is said to be stable but when an infinitely small variation in the present state may bring about a finite difference in the state of the system in a finite time, the system is said to be unstable."
James Clerk Maxwell

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2023, 11:26:20 AM »
I actually think we will have a active winter weather pattern from Mid January through most if not all of February. That doesn’t mean wall to wall winter, probably some cold rains and near misses for a lot of our area. But the odds of timing up with colder air just right will be higher than normal. I do think a lot if not all our area will see 1-2 possibly more good winter weather events. I think those 2 months are going to be fun to watch. Some of our biggest big dog snows come when we time up right in El Niño’s. ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::guitar::

Offline Bruce

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2023, 11:35:57 AM »
I actually think we will have a active winter weather pattern from Mid January through most if not all of February. That doesn’t mean wall to wall winter, probably some cold rains and near misses for a lot of our area. But the odds of timing up with colder air just right will be higher than normal. I do think a lot if not all our area will see 1-2 possibly more good winter weather events. I think those 2 months are going to be fun to watch. Some of our biggest big dog snows come when we time up right in El Niño’s. ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::guitar::
most January into February looking very interesting to me ….  Could be time break the ole sleds out ⛄️!
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2023 - 2034
« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2023, 11:47:58 AM »
I predict it will snow at some point between 2023 and 2034.  ;)
« Last Edit: November 27, 2023, 01:38:34 PM by Thundersnow »

 

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