Hurricane Idalia

[StormNine]

Both the GFS/Euro are on the westward side of things with a landfall in the St. Marks Wilderness Zone.   

[Charles L.]

The storm surge that this hurricane is going to produce will be what is talked about with regards to this system imo. The angle of approach as well as this being one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit this Big Bend region of FL will make it go down in the history books.

[gcbama]

not impossible for this to be a low end cat 4 at landfall

[StormNine]

It has taken off nicely and has become a legit storm.  It only takes one intense overnight cycle for a storm to quickly gain 20 to even 30MPH to its maximum wind speed.   

[gcbama]

It has taken off nicely and has become a legit storm.  It only takes one intense overnight cycle for a storm to quickly gain 20 to even 30MPH to its maximum wind speed.

Seems over past few seasons if true rapid strengthening happens its in the evening and overnight....many times went to sleep on a cat 2 and woke up to a 145 mph cat 4

[Nash_LSU]

Pretty decent convection starting to wrap around. It's cut off the NW quadrant and about to close off the SW and cut off any little bit of remaining dry air. It's about to amp up.

[Charles L.]

Eye is now becoming clear on IR as well as last few frames of visible satellite before nightfall took over.

Latest NHC update has this making landfall as a Cat 4

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/300259.shtml

[cgauxknox]

Officially a 130mph Cat 4 now. This is going to be a terrible storm.

[Nash_LSU]

Perry/Keaton Beach taking a direct hit at landfall. Not much to stop the surge in that town.

[dwagner88]

Seems over past few seasons if true rapid strengthening happens its in the evening and overnight....many times went to sleep on a cat 2 and woke up to a 145 mph cat 4

There has also been an awful trend of strengthening right up to landfall. It's been a while since we had a major unwind as it came in. Ike is the last one I remember.

[Charles L.]

https://x.com/rainmaker1973/status/1696890581891400132?s=46&t=DfLlkA3dyi_S4qkF-yyjlA

[cgauxknox]

https://x.com/rainmaker1973/status/1696890581891400132?s=46&t=DfLlkA3dyi_S4qkF-yyjlA

It's hard to imagine the damage being done with that much water.

[schneitzeit]

Due to an eyewall replacement cycle just before landfall, Idalia officially made landfall as a high-end category 3. Deep convection was stout over Perry, FL, as the eye moved onshore.

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number  16...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Although Idalia reached category 4 intensity early this morning
over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico, Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data just before landfall indicated that the peak
winds had started to decrease and the minimum pressure had begun to
rise.  This was likely due to an eyewall replacement cycle (which
was shown by radar data) and an increase in shear over the
hurricane.  Idalia made landfall near Keaton Beach, Florida,
as a category 3 hurricane around 1145 UTC, and it has been
weakening quickly since then over northern Florida.  WSR-88D
Doppler velocities suggest that the maximum winds are now down to
about 80 kt.

NHC link https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/301500.shtml?

[cgauxknox]

I feel terrible for everyone who was impacted by this storm, but considering how bad it could have been I think things turned out reasonably well. Picking up speed and moving more quickly out to sea probably spared many east coast locations from worse damage, and the east coast storm surge didn't seem nearly as bad as it potentially could have been. To have been a strong Cat 3 at landfall and still a hurricane into southern Georgia this could have been much, much worse.

[schneitzeit]

And it hit the least densely-populated part of Florida, which is better than a direct hit elsewhere in that state. Storm surge was devastating for the areas that did get hit, but it didn't inundate large cities like Ian did last year. Tampa Bay only experienced tropical storm conditions from Idalia at its peak.