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Author Topic: EL-NINO (23-24)  (Read 5589 times)

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Offline Woodvegas

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #45 on: November 05, 2023, 02:02:34 PM »
Snowfall anomalies and chances during El Niño winters.
Credit: Kirk Mellish

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Offline Woodvegas

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #46 on: November 05, 2023, 02:12:36 PM »
JB is touting a disconnect between the ONI which is consistent with a strong El Niño, and the current observable weather pattern which is more similar to that seen during a weak to moderate El Niño. If the weather continues to follow this pattern we could have a few decent snow chances.

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Offline Mr. Kevin

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #47 on: November 05, 2023, 02:15:45 PM »
US winter temperature anomalies during every El Niño since 1950 broken down into Strong, Moderate, and Weak events.
Credit: Kirk Mellish

(Attachment Link)
I like that dark blue one, which was 77-78. Maybe one year ::coffee:: ::popcorn::

Offline Curt

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #48 on: November 05, 2023, 02:17:20 PM »
Nice work Woodvegas. Might be nice to take the moderate El Niño years (3.4 looks to peak out around 1.5-1.6) and cross reference with a negative PDO and negative QBO. El Niño and negative PDO’s are very rare. 2009-2010 looks like it fits that match. That winter had some ups and downs with a couple week period of cold and snow late January to mid February.

Offline Bruce

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #49 on: November 05, 2023, 02:51:15 PM »
I like that dark blue one, which was 77-78. Maybe one year ::coffee:: ::popcorn::
you can only dream about that bro…. 77 78 not happening
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Mr. Kevin

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #50 on: November 05, 2023, 02:58:39 PM »
Snowfall anomalies and chances during El Niño winters.
Credit: Kirk Mellish

(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)
I think Kirk put out a winter outlook already or fixing to do it. He seems to know alot about patterns imo

Offline StormNine

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #51 on: November 05, 2023, 04:41:00 PM »
Nice work Woodvegas. Might be nice to take the moderate El Niño years (3.4 looks to peak out around 1.5-1.6) and cross reference with a negative PDO and negative QBO. El Niño and negative PDO’s are very rare. 2009-2010 looks like it fits that match. That winter had some ups and downs with a couple week period of cold and snow late January to mid February.

1972-73 is a good analog as well that matches the strength of this event plus features a -PDO 

1930-31 (neutral but was followed by an El-Nino so not the best match)
1965-66 (neutral)
1972-73
2006-07
2009-10

Those are the main +ENSO events with a neutral to -PDO
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« Last Edit: November 05, 2023, 04:46:40 PM by StormNine »

Offline StormNine

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #52 on: November 05, 2023, 04:54:27 PM »
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That is interesting when you do factor in a -PDO and +ENSO. 

I did double up on 1972-73 and 2009-10 as they have the correct ENSO transition (a Nino coming off a multi-year Nina event).   

For my temperature outlook, I am going with 72-73 like anomalies but with a warmer December due to abysmal snow cover (that won't be made any better for Southern Canada or the Northlands of the US through at least mid-month). 

Offline snowdog

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #53 on: November 06, 2023, 03:36:35 PM »
US winter temperature anomalies during every El Niño since 1950 broken down into Strong, Moderate, and Weak events.
Credit: Kirk Mellish
(Attachment Link)

I think we see something resembling 86-87 from that map, for this winter. Of course, I will be glad to be wrong and we get a 77-78 type winter.

Offline stayrose38

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #54 on: November 06, 2023, 05:40:30 PM »
I like that analog for CHA.. Jan 87 had a 6 inch snow, March, a .9 inch, and April '87 was of course legendary.. only 2.8 inches here, but a lot more in surrounding areas.. an El Nino Winter coming off a La Nina, so it kinda works. Oct '86 was very wet though, so that doesn't fit.
"When an infinitely small variation of the present state will alter only by an infinitely small quantity the state at some future time, the condition of the system, whether at rest or in motion, is said to be stable but when an infinitely small variation in the present state may bring about a finite difference in the state of the system in a finite time, the system is said to be unstable."
James Clerk Maxwell

Offline StormNine

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #55 on: November 07, 2023, 12:36:40 PM »
My temperature outlook:

A warm December (but since some of the analogs aren't that warm, so I am not predicting record warmth), followed by a potentially decent Jan/Feb if the western regions of the El-Nino start to warm.  If that doesn't happen then turn those negatives into pluses, but with an active subtropical jet I still wouldn't expect anything really torchy south of the Ohio River for Jan-Feb.   

Nashville:
Dec: +4.0F
Jan: -1.5F 
Feb: -1.9F

Chattanogga:
Dec: +3.5F
Jan: -1.5F
Feb: -2.5F

Paducah:
Dec: +4.0F
Jan: -1.5F
Feb: -1.9F 

Memphis:
Dec: +3.5F
Jan: -1.5F
Feb: -2.0F

Just for Fun:

Green Bay, WI:
Dec: +7.5F
Jan: +2.0F
Feb: -1.0F 

Offline Woodvegas

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #56 on: November 08, 2023, 06:45:32 PM »
Euro monthly 2m temperature anomaly maps for December, January, and February…

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Offline Woodvegas

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #57 on: November 08, 2023, 06:51:07 PM »
Allan Huffman (@RaleighWx) 2023-24 snowfall and winter temperature outlook maps below. I think he’s a pretty good met.

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Online cgauxknox

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #58 on: November 08, 2023, 07:19:30 PM »
Euro monthly 2m temperature anomaly maps for December, January, and February…

I can deal with thunderstorms at Christmas in exchange for a snowy start to 2024.

Offline OutsiderLuknIn

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Re: EL-NINO (23-24)
« Reply #59 on: November 09, 2023, 10:56:26 AM »
I’ve been following the thread and I absolutely have to post this…



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