EL-NINO (23-24)

[Golfmankevin]

Looks like this Nino has peaked in the eastern PAC and the warm water should steer progressing westward through the fall. Where the warmest water ends up in relation to each Nino zone will dictate what kind of winter we have. The Nino rally starts declining mid winter regardless.

Tropical forcing is definitely important in that the further west, the better. East based niños typically are warm, unless they are relatively weak. It's still early,  but let's hope for the outcome that leads to a few opportunities at snow and or sleet so we have something to track in our area

[schneitzeit]

pulling for a severe weather event Christmas …personally .  Need good chase in the winter months

Chasing rain-wrapped QLCS tornadoes moving 60 miles per hour in December isn't really my thing. Especially not in Tennessee, which is nothing but winding roads and trees that will allow you to see a tornado one in ten times- if you're lucky!

Is the chasing terrain better around Jackson? I know it's flatter out there, but there's too many trees for my liking. The only parts of TN I'd be comfortable chasing are U.S. 51 from Millington up to Union City, and possibly south of Murfreesboro.

[Bruce]

Chasing rain-wrapped QLCS tornadoes moving 60 miles per hour in December isn't really my thing. Especially not in Tennessee, which is nothing but winding roads and trees that will allow you to see a tornado one in ten times- if you're lucky!

Is the chasing terrain better around Jackson? I know it's flatter out there, but there's too many trees for my liking. The only parts of TN I'd be comfortable chasing are U.S. 51 from Millington up to Union City, and possibly south of Murfreesboro.

true , area just west of Jackson towards Haywood county becomes flatter , still have get away from the trees …. Just because winter time, doesn’t guarantee a qlcs type setup….  January 99 for one is prime example … plus the mayfield Kentucky long tracker just couple winters ago….  Super Tuesday 08

[Thundersnow]

And, as in the case of the above mentioned, these cool season events tend to be nocturnal events. So, these are usually nighttime tornadoes that you can't see unless briefly backlit by lightning, even aside from the hills and trees.

[Curt]

Chasing rain-wrapped QLCS tornadoes moving 60 miles per hour in December isn't really my thing. Especially not in Tennessee, which is nothing but winding roads and trees that will allow you to see a tornado one in ten times- if you're lucky!

Is the chasing terrain better around Jackson? I know it's flatter out there, but there's too many trees for my liking. The only parts of TN I'd be comfortable chasing are U.S. 51 from Millington up to Union City, and possibly south of Murfreesboro.

West TN is a little deceptive since the terrain slopes down from towards the MS River. About the only place that truly lies within the MS Alluvial plain are parts of Dyer and Lake Co just along the river. Parts of Tipton and Crockett Co are flat and open in places along the Hatchie and Forked Deer (respectively). Most other places have rolling terrain to some degree making it difficult to see esp with a thick forest floor. The southern counties from eastern Shelby to the TN River have more rough terrain as well.

[Clarksville Snowman]

Anybody wanting tornadoes on Christmas is nuts! Just saying! Let is Snow! 

[StormNine]

We have already reached +1.5/+1.6C strong category on our warming, but we are starting to cool off across the basin (especially eastern regions).

What happens from now through November is going to be huge for this winter. The latest CFSv2 model and many ensembles now show it holding steady or even dropping into the moderate range through the winter.  That would also likely cause the greatest warmth to shift westward as well across the El-Nino zone.  This lines up very closely with the 1987-88 El-Nino event.

There is also a camp that wants to warm things up again closer to the holidays and throw this event into the super range (+2.0C or greater).  That would line up with our big Papa El-Nino events like 1930-31, 1997-98, and 2015-16. 

 

[Golfmankevin]

We have already reached +1.5/+1.6C strong category on our warming, but we are starting to cool off across the basin (especially eastern regions).

What happens from now through November is going to be huge for this winter. The latest CFSv2 model and many ensembles now show it holding steady or even dropping into the moderate range through the winter.  That would also likely cause the greatest warmth to shift westward as well across the El-Nino zone.  This lines up very closely with the 1987-88 El-Nino event.

There is also a camp that wants to warm things up again closer to the holidays and throw this event into the super range (+2.0C or greater).  That would line up with our big Papa El-Nino events like 1930-31, 1997-98, and 2015-16.

I've read over at American weather that the MEI and ONI is the best way to tell more exactly how strong the niño is and where it may going in future weeks. Basically, despite the strong niño that is prevalent in the ocean, the atmosphere isn't. That may well change, but not yet

[Bruce]

Strong east based Nino looking likely as we head towards winter …

[Golfmankevin]

Strong east based Nino looking likely as we head towards winter …

Wxman57, is that you? 

[Golfmankevin]

Strong east based Nino looking likely as we head towards winter …

Your becoming a warm monger. Don't like winter do you?

[Bruce]

Your becoming a warm monger. Don't like winter do you?

don’t shoot the messenger…

[StormNine]

The Aleutian Island Ridge is very odd for a strong El Nino.  If we don't lose it then we are going to really torch especially Nov-Dec (rivaling the 2015 Nov-Dec period).     

 

[StormNine]

The two closest ONI matches are 1965-66 and 1972-73.  If the El-Nino peaked now and begins to weaken a bit even 1987-88 comes into play as well as an analog.  It seems like we are moving away from 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 territory.   

The thing we have to use caution on is that we are dealing with much more warmth in our oceans and that is going to likely have some effects as well

[StormNine]

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My first winter outlook.  I did sorta-kinda okay the last two winters but we will see how this goes.