EL-NINO (23-24)

[StormNine]

There has been a lot of noise in regional and national media about El-Nino. Some of which in my opinion may be a bit misleading and hyped up just for ratings, clicks, and viewership (but that is just my opinion).  It should be noted that not all El-Nino are equal and that El-Nino is far from the only thing that impacts fall/winter weather in our region or worldwide. If it did then 1991-92 and 2009-10 wouldn't have been drastically different winters for the USA.       

Regardless we not only will lose our La-Nina, but will go straight to a El-Nino and potentially a significant one (several models are showing something between 2009-10 and 2015-16 in intensity).   

[StormNine]

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

It is still probably too early to give an exact outlook now, but it seems like we have two climate model camps.

One is clustered around the strong to super El-Nino range of +1.7 to +2.0 (flirting with 97-98 and 15-16 intensity).  In that case, El Nino would be one of the more dominating factors in how our fall and winter goes.   

The other cluster is right around +1C and is where the CPC's official model is at. That would be your more run-of-the-mill weak to a moderate event similar to 2006-07, 2014-15 or 2018-19.  In that case, El-Nino would be a more mild to moderate factor in how our fall and winter goes.   

[StormNine]

Some model sets aren't quite as aggressive at getting us to Super El-Nino range.

The latest CVS model sets are now showing a Moderate event.  For our winters, if we can keep this El Nino at or just under the +1.5C threshold and we can get some higher latitude blocking then we still have a chance at a solid winter, although one has to fight climate change and us nearing a more active than has been sunspot cycle.

If we go above say the +1.7C threshold then El-Nino will likely flood us with mild Pacific air and we will have to hope for a big one-hit wonder like 97-98 and 15-16. 

[StormNine]

For comparison, 87-88 was right around +1.5C to +1.6C at its peak.

02-03 and 09-10 were around +1.3C at their peak.   

The Super El-Nino events of 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16 were in the +2.0 to +2.5C range.   

[Bruce]

Some model sets aren't quite as aggressive at getting us to Super El-Nino range.

The latest CVS model sets are now showing a Moderate event.  For our winters, if we can keep this El Nino at or just under the +1.5C threshold and we can get some higher latitude blocking then we still have a chance at a solid winter, although one has to fight climate change and us nearing a more active than has been sunspot cycle.

If we go above say the +1.7C threshold then El-Nino will likely flood us with mild Pacific air and we will have to hope for a big one-hit wonder like 97-98 and 15-16.

mild pacific air would be great with me and sure most on here, save on heating bill with rates keep going up … that being said , give me one
Big snow I be more than satisfied

[Curt]

Looks like this Nino will peak out in region 3.4 in October-November as moderate before falling into winter. It makes a difference WHEN it peaks (fall vs mid winter) and also where the warmest water resides in the PAC (west PAC or region 4 , central 3.4, or east 1.2/3). With a fall peak and warmest water mid winter in the central vs east(clearly shown in the CFS forecast) , one starts to get some hints on a torch Nino vs a cold Nino. This is no 2015-2016 at the moment.

[StormNine]

The latest model runs have ticked up a bit on the intensity of the El-Nino.

The CFSv2 is still at a peak of about +1.5C before slowly fading.  That would put the El-Nino at about a 1957-58/1987-88 level as far as strength goes.  Both of those winters were actually decent for our area. A winter like this would still likely be dominated by other factors like the NAO, MJO, and PNA.

The EURO wants to push it close to Super El-Nino range and peak in the +1.8 to +2.0C, which is getting into the range where El-Nino overwhelms the entire pattern. That would put it at a 1972-73 level event.

As Curt said the factors that influence our climate include the strength of the El-Nino, duration of the El-Nino, and position (is it basin-wide, east-based, or west/central/based aka as a Modoki El-Nino).   

No matter what get ready for the media to blame El-Nino for everything from floods, droughts, civil unrest, and bad hair days.   

[StormNine]

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We are running out of time to keep this El-Nino in the Moderate or even Low-End Strong range.  It should be noted that sometimes these models underestimate the warmth as well, in a matter of fact I think at this time in 2015 El-Nino was supposed to peak around +1.8 or +1.9C.  Not saying we quite get to 2015-16, but we may be a bit closer than we think.   

Once El Nino gets to about +1.8C or greater it typically becomes the main dominating factor of how winter goes and can overwhelm even more favorable telecommunications. Usually, any El-Nino that strong is going to be basin-wide as well.     

[StormNine]

+1.8C or greater El-Nino winters

Examples of El-Nino dominated winters include: 
1930-31
1972-73
1982-83
1991-92
1997-98
2015-16

These winters tend to feature
- A very warm to record warm December pretty much nationwide (especially around Christmas time so don't expect a repeat of last Christmas).  One or two tornado threats may also develop from the Southern Plains over toward the OH/TN valley region as well.   

- These winters can be quite wet featuring a supercharged subtropical jet and not just along the Gulf Coast either. Sometimes heavier rains can spread as far northwest as the I-44 corridor

- These winters can also feature a one-hit-wonder major snowstorm typically from a Miller A/far southern tracking Miller B or similar type system that impacts much of the country.  This for many people is the only major snowfall you will see during the entire winter season.   

- The spring/summer time next year will depend on whether we transition back to a Nina.  If we do then watch out because we will be taking some more spins on the extreme/historic weather wheel in 2024 into 2025.   

[Bruce]

+1.8C or greater El-Nino winters

Examples of El-Nino dominated winters include: 
1930-31
1972-73
1982-83
1991-92
1997-98
2015-16

These winters tend to feature
- A very warm to record warm December pretty much nationwide (especially around Christmas time so don't expect a repeat of last Christmas).  One or two tornado threats may also develop from the Southern Plains over toward the OH/TN valley region as well.   

- These winters can be quite wet featuring a supercharged subtropical jet and not just along the Gulf Coast either. Sometimes heavier rains can spread as far northwest as the I-44 corridor

- These winters can also feature a one-hit-wonder major snowstorm typically from a Miller A/far southern tracking Miller B or similar type system that impacts much of the country.  This for many people is the only major snowfall you will see during the entire winter season.   

- The spring/summer time next year will depend on whether we transition back to a Nina.  If we do then watch out because we will be taking some more spins on the extreme/historic weather wheel in 2024 into 2025.

pulling for a severe weather event Christmas …personally .  Need good chase in the winter months

[StormNine]

pulling for a severe weather event Christmas …personally .  Need good chase in the winter months

A hard-no on that one.  Tornado Warnings and Christmas (or a few days before or after) go together like toothpaste and orange juice.

As we know weather is going to weather regardless of what we mere mortal humans want though.     

[Curt]

Looks like this Nino has peaked in the eastern PAC and the warm water should steer progressing westward through the fall. Where the warmest water ends up in relation to each Nino zone will dictate what kind of winter we have. The Nino rally starts declining mid winter regardless.

[Woodvegas]

JB/WeatherBELL’s forecast for the upcoming El Niño winter…

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[cgauxknox]

JB/WeatherBELL’s forecast for the upcoming El Niño winter…

(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

Taking the source at an appropriate level of confidence, or lack thereof, I'd gladly cash that in.

[StormNine]

Taking the source at an appropriate level of confidence, or lack thereof, I'd gladly cash that in.

It is reasonable if

1) We are able to keep some of the blocking we have seen at times this summer in the poles/northern Canada alive

2) The El-Nino peaks early and doesn't exceed +1.8C in strength, which would also require the eastern regions to cool off or at least plateau in warmth.