EL-NINO (23-24)

[StormNine]

There has been a lot of noise in regional and national media about El-Nino. Some of which in my opinion may be a bit misleading and hyped up just for ratings, clicks, and viewership (but that is just my opinion).  It should be noted that not all El-Nino are equal and that El-Nino is far from the only thing that impacts fall/winter weather in our region or worldwide. If it did then 1991-92 and 2009-10 wouldn't have been drastically different winters for the USA.       

Regardless we not only will lose our La-Nina, but will go straight to a El-Nino and potentially a significant one (several models are showing something between 2009-10 and 2015-16 in intensity).   

[StormNine]

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

It is still probably too early to give an exact outlook now, but it seems like we have two climate model camps.

One is clustered around the strong to super El-Nino range of +1.7 to +2.0 (flirting with 97-98 and 15-16 intensity).  In that case, El Nino would be one of the more dominating factors in how our fall and winter goes.   

The other cluster is right around +1C and is where the CPC's official model is at. That would be your more run-of-the-mill weak to a moderate event similar to 2006-07, 2014-15 or 2018-19.  In that case, El-Nino would be a more mild to moderate factor in how our fall and winter goes.