May 2023

[stayrose38]

GFS still consistently signals seasonal temps at the warmest in the extended. Has daytime highs in the upper 50s on June 13th on the 18z GFS. Can you imagine a chilly Bonnaroo/CMA fest?

What a crazy cold upper level low it's showing for Mid June. LOL I don't think that's even possible.

[schneitzeit]

Following a return to seasonal temperatures this week, the GFS signals a Rex Block early next week.



The Euro, on the other hand, contains lower heights to the northeast as a positively-tilted trough develops along the Atlantic. Given the discrepancy in both models right now, it's difficult to tell if above normal temperatures will hold into next week or if there will be a few more chilly mornings with temperatures in the lower 50s.

[Curt]

Euro has temps over west TN in the upper 90's this weekend- but with dewpoints in the upper 40's/ lower 50's = dry dry dry. With little rain forecast over the next 15 days we are losing soil moisture quickly.

[Thundersnow]

Just watered some of the fescue this morning... that will suffer quickly in the heat if too many days pass with no appreciable rain.

[TNHunter]

Looking a lot like last summer. Very dry Mid May through July.  The MS is already forecasted to be at only 6 feet next week. That is really low going into the dry season.  I would not be surprised to see barge issues by the end of month or early July if there is no rain.

[Bruce]

Looks to me rain chances pick up nicely towards end next week. Followed
 By another cooler shot temp wise ….

[NismoWx]

Looking a lot like last summer. Very dry Mid May through July.  The MS is already forecasted to be at only 6 feet next week. That is really low going into the dry season.  I would not be surprised to see barge issues by the end of month or early July if there is no rain.

Last year, the biggest impact we saw in Mid TN (and most didn't realize) was on fuel prices. Most of the terminals in Nashville, which also supply fuel to several states, are on the pipeline. However, the ones that aren't on the pipeline are fulfilled via barge. When those terminals couldn't get product, it caused an overdraw on the pipeline (and Colonial wasn't sending more) and resulted in a false shortage. I spent many days late last summer going back and forth to Chattanooga to get diesel because Nashville didn't have any.

I do not wish for a repeat of that.

[schneitzeit]

May temperatures were about the climatological mean for most of Tennessee, with East Tennessee being cooler than normal. Elsewhere, it was pretty  , especially in Canada. The Southeast and Gulf Stream cold anomalies are just a blip on the map compared to record warmth in western Canada.



https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1665591494928125953?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet