April 2023

[andyhb]

Way too much to pack into a post regarding model data interpretation, but I would suggest watching the stuff this guy puts out on Youtube...

https://www.youtube.com/@ConvectiveChronicles

Every event he does a pre- and a post- breakdown, including model data, skew-Ts, real-time, the whole shebang.  All videos are very well put together and easily understood.  I've learned a lot myself and I just started watching him about three months ago.  Dude is like the Babbel of meteorology.

He was one of my grad school classmates, definitely endorse his stuff. Dude knows a lot.

[Eric]

He was one of my grad school classmates, definitely endorse his stuff. Dude knows a lot.

His stuff has become appointment viewing for me.  Through watching his vids, I was able to start connecting dots that were left unconnected due to inexperience and/or depth of knowledge.  I urge everyone to give it a go.

[NismoWx]

Looking at the BS (Bruce Scale) I am putting everyone from say Hawaii to Maine on level alert 5

You owe me a computer monitor now.



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[Thundersnow]

Tuesday’s risk is centered in MO, with risk edging into the west side of the state. Hope it stays away, but I don’t wish yesterday on anyone. Better yet, hope the threat diminishes, but it’s out there, so we have to keep an eye on it.

[gcbama]

Tuesday’s risk is centered in MO, with risk edging into the west side of the state. Hope it stays away, but I don’t wish yesterday on anyone. Better yet, hope the threat diminishes, but it’s out there, so we have to keep an eye on it.

After yesterday our area needs a break, glad the threat has stayed to our nw/ really has looked that way past 2 days and seems trend continues....I am with you, I hope it does not materialize for Missouri either. Been a rough few weeks severe weather wise in the south and midwest

[andyhb]

ARE YOU SERIOUS RIGHT NOW?

81 hours out and we're pulling that for probabilities of STP > 5 on Tuesday. Unbelievable.

[StormNine]

The Tuesday Night (maybe into Wednesday Morning) setup is very concerning. Another nice broad-based trough with a dynamic as-heck system with it.  Instability and moisture return this time is even more favorable than Friday's event.  The only saving issue is that the worst of the worst looks to exist just to our west from Arkansas to Iowa/NW Illinois, but we can easily see that development track across the river.   

When the analogs for your projected event are like:
4/3/1974
4/2/1982
11/10/2002
5/4/2003
5/10-5/11/2003
5/30/2004

Analogs like that mean it is time to pay attention.  Yes, you can always do a 4/10/2008 but you never like to play with fire like that.   
. 

[TNHunter]

Maybe I’ve been under a log but this is the first severe event all year for TN right?  Really been that active?

[schneitzeit]

I'm dumb with severe stuff too.. I need a good tutorial.

No shame in that! Check out the COMET MetEd modules. They are free (as far as I know) and very helpful.

[stayrose38]

GFS still showing a deep trough in the 10 day window... fairly consistent. Potential frost/freezes in Tennessee mid month.. We'll see if it holds up:

[stayrose38]

Also, at risk of offending the severe weather fanbois, I'd rather see this than another tornado outbreak this month. Enough is enough with that crap. Light freezes aren't going to greatly deter the gardening season or the summer block of torturous humidity.

[Uncledrew]

I'd rather see this than another tornado outbreak this month. Enough is enough with that crap.

Most definitely, any is too many.


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[Thundersnow]

OHX latest thoughts for Middle TN on next system…

severe weather potential appears a bit more uncertain as the main upper level dynamics will shift northward away from our region through the day on
Wednesday, leading to weakening wind shear with time. Despite this, plenty of instability looks to be available ahead of the front on Wednesday, so some strong to severe thunderstorms still appear possible. I`d still expect SPC to highlight most of our forecast area and surrounding areas in a slight risk on their newest Day 4 outlook later this morning.

SPC didn’t though (on Day 4). Risk was defined well north of us, more in the Great Lakes region. Day 3 has Tuesday’s risk nudged further west, which still looks like a concern further out in AR and MO, but the risk area shuts off pretty quickly on the western border of TN. Still need to pay attention to trends.

[StormNine]

After the mid-week threat we do shift to a western ridge and eastern trough pattern for the mid-month period.

That should give us a break for at least 7-10 days (hopefully a bit longer). 

[StormNine]

Alta and Brighton, UT are looking at around 50 more inches of snow with this upcoming system.  Depending on how they perform the 2nd half of the month and early May they could exceed 900 inches of snow for the year with an outside shot of 1,000 inches of snow.