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Author Topic: April 2023  (Read 16307 times)

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Offline Charles L.

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #30 on: March 30, 2023, 10:40:54 AM »
Yeah, goes without saying.  My comment was pointed at those that are currently outside SPC's 30% risk area.

Looking at the BS (Bruce Scale) I am putting everyone from say Hawaii to Maine on level alert 5
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Offline andyhb

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #31 on: March 30, 2023, 12:09:19 PM »
Some of these model forecasts for Tuesday are incredible and would portend a large scale severe/tornado outbreak.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability

Offline Icestorm

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #32 on: March 30, 2023, 01:23:23 PM »
Looking at the BS (Bruce Scale) I am putting everyone from say Hawaii to Maine on level alert 5
Going to take cover now!

Offline andyhb

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #33 on: March 30, 2023, 01:44:45 PM »
Just unreal stuff off the 12z suite for Tuesday, most notably the Euro, which has verbatim a massive tornado outbreak across most of the Middle and Lower MS Valley towards the OV and Great Lakes.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability

Online Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #34 on: March 30, 2023, 02:10:08 PM »
Know we got get through tomorrow first , but Jesus , I can’t help but stare and trip over the 12z runs today for next Tuesday’s threat . WOW!
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Online Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #35 on: March 30, 2023, 02:17:10 PM »
12z really ramps up things for Tuesday. Got my eyes on that day now for sure to was skeptical but todays 12z changed that. Very serious event on tap if that verifies! For all of our sakes we better hope it don't or we all might need a new house
Huge chase day could be in the making
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #36 on: March 30, 2023, 02:36:17 PM »
can somebody detail next week, i am horrible and understanding global models for severe weather LOL...only thing i am "half decent" at is cam's for severe weather LOL.

Offline stayrose38

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #37 on: March 30, 2023, 02:40:11 PM »
I'm dumb with severe stuff too.. I need a good tutorial.
"When an infinitely small variation of the present state will alter only by an infinitely small quantity the state at some future time, the condition of the system, whether at rest or in motion, is said to be stable but when an infinitely small variation in the present state may bring about a finite difference in the state of the system in a finite time, the system is said to be unstable."
James Clerk Maxwell

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #38 on: March 30, 2023, 02:44:38 PM »
I'm dumb with severe stuff too.. I need a good tutorial.

i saw the 12z gfs and saw hardly any precip in the area that spc has under risk for that day? I wondered if that meant it would be scattered supercells or what cause i didn't see anything LOL. I see the dew points and a low pressure in the midwest but.... like I say I am no good at globals for severe storms

Offline Eric

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #39 on: March 30, 2023, 02:47:22 PM »
Way too much to pack into a post regarding model data interpretation, but I would suggest watching the stuff this guy puts out on Youtube...

https://www.youtube.com/@ConvectiveChronicles

Every event he does a pre- and a post- breakdown, including model data, skew-Ts, real-time, the whole shebang.  All videos are very well put together and easily understood.  I've learned a lot myself and I just started watching him about three months ago.  Dude is like the Babbel of meteorology. 
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #40 on: March 30, 2023, 02:50:27 PM »
Way too much to pack into a post regarding model data interpretation, but I would suggest watching the stuff this guy puts out on Youtube...

https://www.youtube.com/@ConvectiveChronicles

Every event he does a pre- and a post- breakdown, including model data, skew-Ts, real-time, the whole shebang.  All videos are very well put together and easily understood.  I've learned a lot myself and I just started watching him about three months ago.  Dude is like the Babbel of meteorology.

In your opinion eric, does next tuesday look as bad for the midsouth as so many here are saying? i know its days away but just checking :)

Online Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #41 on: March 30, 2023, 02:51:04 PM »
i saw the 12z gfs and saw hardly any precip in the area that spc has under risk for that day? I wondered if that meant it would be scattered supercells or what cause i didn't see anything LOL. I see the dew points and a low pressure in the midwest but.... like I say I am no good at globals for severe storms
no crap convection on that run ….
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Eric

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #42 on: March 30, 2023, 02:56:50 PM »
In your opinion eric, does next tuesday look as bad for the midsouth as so many here are saying? i know its days away but just checking :)

Things could change.  The storm isn't even onshore yet.

But, I wouldn't turn my back on it.  That's all I'm sayin'.
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Offline andyhb

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #43 on: March 30, 2023, 03:47:57 PM »
Way too much to pack into a post regarding model data interpretation, but I would suggest watching the stuff this guy puts out on Youtube...

https://www.youtube.com/@ConvectiveChronicles

Every event he does a pre- and a post- breakdown, including model data, skew-Ts, real-time, the whole shebang.  All videos are very well put together and easily understood.  I've learned a lot myself and I just started watching him about three months ago.  Dude is like the Babbel of meteorology.

He was one of my grad school classmates, definitely endorse his stuff. Dude knows a lot.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability

Offline Eric

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #44 on: March 30, 2023, 03:50:57 PM »
He was one of my grad school classmates, definitely endorse his stuff. Dude knows a lot.

His stuff has become appointment viewing for me.  Through watching his vids, I was able to start connecting dots that were left unconnected due to inexperience and/or depth of knowledge.  I urge everyone to give it a go.
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