April 2023

[Bruce]

cam's been leaning toward stormier solution farther south all day today for wednesday, never can remember seeing them do a day 3 afternoon update?

me either. Come think of it …

[mempho]

Spc has now. Rather large day 3 slight risk out with hatched just north of us

What’s going to kill those long trackers before they get into Tennessee?

[Bruce]

What’s going to kill those long trackers before they get into Tennessee?

perhaps cap ?

[mempho]

perhaps cap ?

Looks like some models are bumping the enhanced zones right up to the river and the moderate zones to within 40 miles or so of the river.   That would not leave much margin for the western metro.   

[memphishogfan]

HRRR starting to show the cap eroding earlier in eastern Arkansas.  If the cap breaks could be a long night for all of Arkansas.

If that trend continues wouldn’t be surprised to see the enhanced stretched to the river.  Possible high risk for Northwest Arkansas. Sigtor values off the charts out there.

[Bruce]

HRRR starting to show the cap eroding earlier in eastern Arkansas.  If the cap breaks could be a long night for all of Arkansas.

If that trend continues wouldn’t be surprised to see the enhanced stretched to the river.  Possible high risk for Northwest Arkansas. Sigtor values off the charts out there.

just expanded most midsouth I enhanced risk … wind driven

[Cody029]

just expanded most midsouth I enhanced risk … wind driven

Do you think this might end up more of a squall line for middle tennessee or whats it looking like by the time it gets here.

[Bruce]

Do you think this might end up more of a squall line for middle tennessee or whats it looking like by the time it gets here.

thinking more squall line as now , be it’s going be interesting to start paying attention see what hrrr runs does with it .

[TNHunter]

Looks like around mid month we flip to 80 degrees + for the rest of the month. That might mark the end of the traditional severe season.

[Bruce]

Looks like around mid month we flip to 80 degrees + for the rest of the month. That might mark the end of the traditional severe season.

we keep getting these amped up troughs  slp coming  out  of the Rockies , 80 degree weather will increase our cape values to go along with shear with these systems .  After tomorrow we going get
Bout a 7 to day to 10 day break from this
Pattern as trough hangs around the east part country …. Then we go back to ridge east trough west with intense systems coming down the Rockies appears …  give it to about second week May then we start to heads towards more summer pattern …

[Cody029]

we keep getting these amped up troughs  slp coming  out  of the Rockies , 80 degree weather will increase our cape values to gosling with shear with these systems .  After tomorrow we going get
Bout a 7 to day to 10 day break from this
Pattern as trough hangs around the east part country …. Then we go back to ridge east trough west with intense systems coming down the Rockies appears …  give it to about second week May then we start to heads towards more summer pattern …

Agree the instability will be crazy we might lose some of the dynamics but it wont matter with higher instability. Dynamics matter 100% when we are in winter but in spring and summer it takes very little to stir up trouble. We still need a dynamic system to make crazy outbreaks but we can still get bigger storms from less dynamic systems.

[StormNine]

thinking more squall line as now , be it’s going be interesting to start paying attention see what hrrr runs does with it .

The winds are a bit more unidirectional, so while we still have just enough shear to watch for an isolated tornado threat it is probable that tomorrow's storms may be a bit more summertime-like (for those south of the Ohio River) with MCS's and clusters that may pulse up and down a bit. 

Areas further north closer to the Great Lakes could be a whole different story altogether.   

[Curt]

After tomorrow, how about a nice, extended period of dry, sunny, low humidity kind of weather with 70's/50's for as long as the eye can see.

[joemomma]

That sounds good, except sprinkle some showers (nothing crazy) in every few days to get the grass seed we put out to come up.

[Bruce]

After tomorrow, how about a nice, extended period of dry, sunny, low humidity kind of weather with 70's/50's for as long as the eye can see.

the eye see least 7 to to 10 days that type pattern.