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Author Topic: April 2023  (Read 16629 times)

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Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #75 on: April 03, 2023, 09:41:45 PM »
What’s going to kill those long trackers before they get into Tennessee?
perhaps cap ?
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline mempho

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #76 on: April 03, 2023, 10:03:36 PM »
perhaps cap ?

Looks like some models are bumping the enhanced zones right up to the river and the moderate zones to within 40 miles or so of the river.   That would not leave much margin for the western metro.   


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline memphishogfan

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #77 on: April 03, 2023, 10:04:38 PM »
HRRR starting to show the cap eroding earlier in eastern Arkansas.  If the cap breaks could be a long night for all of Arkansas.

If that trend continues wouldn’t be surprised to see the enhanced stretched to the river.  Possible high risk for Northwest Arkansas. Sigtor values off the charts out there.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2023, 10:52:10 PM by memphishogfan »

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #78 on: April 04, 2023, 02:36:24 AM »
HRRR starting to show the cap eroding earlier in eastern Arkansas.  If the cap breaks could be a long night for all of Arkansas.

If that trend continues wouldn’t be surprised to see the enhanced stretched to the river.  Possible high risk for Northwest Arkansas. Sigtor values off the charts out there.
just expanded most midsouth I enhanced risk … wind driven
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Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #79 on: April 04, 2023, 04:00:33 AM »
Do you think this might end up more of a squall line for middle tennessee or whats it looking like by the time it gets here.
thinking more squall line as now , be it’s going be interesting to start paying attention see what hrrr runs does with it .
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Offline TNHunter

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #80 on: April 04, 2023, 05:43:31 AM »
Looks like around mid month we flip to 80 degrees + for the rest of the month. That might mark the end of the traditional severe season.

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #81 on: April 04, 2023, 06:43:48 AM »
Looks like around mid month we flip to 80 degrees + for the rest of the month. That might mark the end of the traditional severe season.
we keep getting these amped up troughs  slp coming  out  of the Rockies , 80 degree weather will increase our cape values to go along with shear with these systems .  After tomorrow we going get
Bout a 7 to day to 10 day break from this
Pattern as trough hangs around the east part country …. Then we go back to ridge east trough west with intense systems coming down the Rockies appears …  give it to about second week May then we start to heads towards more summer pattern …
« Last Edit: April 04, 2023, 01:40:41 PM by Bruce »
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Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #82 on: April 04, 2023, 08:02:39 AM »
thinking more squall line as now , be it’s going be interesting to start paying attention see what hrrr runs does with it .

The winds are a bit more unidirectional, so while we still have just enough shear to watch for an isolated tornado threat it is probable that tomorrow's storms may be a bit more summertime-like (for those south of the Ohio River) with MCS's and clusters that may pulse up and down a bit. 

Areas further north closer to the Great Lakes could be a whole different story altogether.   

Offline Curt

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #83 on: April 04, 2023, 09:43:00 AM »
After tomorrow, how about a nice, extended period of dry, sunny, low humidity kind of weather with 70's/50's for as long as the eye can see.

Offline joemomma

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #84 on: April 04, 2023, 09:59:46 AM »
That sounds good, except sprinkle some showers (nothing crazy) in every few days to get the grass seed we put out to come up.

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #85 on: April 04, 2023, 10:13:39 AM »
After tomorrow, how about a nice, extended period of dry, sunny, low humidity kind of weather with 70's/50's for as long as the eye can see.
the eye see least 7 to to 10 days that type pattern.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2023, 10:22:28 AM by Bruce »
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Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #86 on: April 04, 2023, 10:31:36 AM »
we keep getting these amped up troughs  slp coming  out  of the Rockies , 80 degree weather will increase our cape values to gosling with shear with these systems .  After tomorrow we going get
Bout a 7 to day to 10 day break from this
Pattern as trough hangs around the east part country …. Then we go back to ridge east trough west with intense systems coming down the Rockies appears …  give it to about second week May then we start to heads towards more summer pattern …

I would imagine we would start to see a shift over towards the Plains or systems like this one that are more focused over the Ozarks to the Great Lakes as the Bermuda Ridge starts to flex once we get later into this month.  Before we have to worry about that we do have a solid at least 7-10 day period of much-needed calm/chill weather. 




Offline memphishogfan

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #87 on: April 04, 2023, 11:23:53 AM »
Quote
QLCS Tornadoes
@PERiLS_Project
·
1h
We will be operating as early as late Tuesday (4 April) and into Wednesday (5 April) in the Jonesboro, AR area for IOP5.




Also, is it just me or has this thing really hit the breaks today?
« Last Edit: April 04, 2023, 11:42:21 AM by memphishogfan »

Offline Clint

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #88 on: April 04, 2023, 12:39:30 PM »
After tomorrow, how about a nice, extended period of dry, sunny, low humidity kind of weather with 70's/50's for as long as the eye can see.
This would be a most welcome change.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #89 on: April 04, 2023, 02:28:24 PM »
Looks like we have lift off in Missouri. Hopefully things don’t go sideways.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2023, 02:38:28 PM by Dyersburg Weather »

 

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