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Author Topic: April 2023  (Read 16630 times)

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Online NismoWx

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #45 on: March 31, 2023, 12:12:47 PM »
Looking at the BS (Bruce Scale) I am putting everyone from say Hawaii to Maine on level alert 5
You owe me a computer monitor now.



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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #46 on: April 01, 2023, 09:52:21 AM »
Tuesday’s risk is centered in MO, with risk edging into the west side of the state. Hope it stays away, but I don’t wish yesterday on anyone. Better yet, hope the threat diminishes, but it’s out there, so we have to keep an eye on it.

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #47 on: April 01, 2023, 11:21:15 AM »
Tuesday’s risk is centered in MO, with risk edging into the west side of the state. Hope it stays away, but I don’t wish yesterday on anyone. Better yet, hope the threat diminishes, but it’s out there, so we have to keep an eye on it.

After yesterday our area needs a break, glad the threat has stayed to our nw/ really has looked that way past 2 days and seems trend continues....I am with you, I hope it does not materialize for Missouri either. Been a rough few weeks severe weather wise in the south and midwest

Offline andyhb

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #48 on: April 01, 2023, 05:03:53 PM »


ARE YOU SERIOUS RIGHT NOW?

81 hours out and we're pulling that for probabilities of STP > 5 on Tuesday. Unbelievable.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #49 on: April 01, 2023, 05:09:21 PM »
The Tuesday Night (maybe into Wednesday Morning) setup is very concerning. Another nice broad-based trough with a dynamic as-heck system with it.  Instability and moisture return this time is even more favorable than Friday's event.  The only saving issue is that the worst of the worst looks to exist just to our west from Arkansas to Iowa/NW Illinois, but we can easily see that development track across the river.   

When the analogs for your projected event are like:
4/3/1974
4/2/1982
11/10/2002
5/4/2003
5/10-5/11/2003
5/30/2004

Analogs like that mean it is time to pay attention.  Yes, you can always do a 4/10/2008 but you never like to play with fire like that.   





Offline TNHunter

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #50 on: April 01, 2023, 08:25:28 PM »
Maybe I’ve been under a log but this is the first severe event all year for TN right?  Really been that active?

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #51 on: April 01, 2023, 08:53:17 PM »
I'm dumb with severe stuff too.. I need a good tutorial.

No shame in that! Check out the COMET MetEd modules. They are free (as far as I know) and very helpful.

Offline stayrose38

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #52 on: April 01, 2023, 11:53:37 PM »
GFS still showing a deep trough in the 10 day window... fairly consistent. Potential frost/freezes in Tennessee mid month.. We'll see if it holds up:

"When an infinitely small variation of the present state will alter only by an infinitely small quantity the state at some future time, the condition of the system, whether at rest or in motion, is said to be stable but when an infinitely small variation in the present state may bring about a finite difference in the state of the system in a finite time, the system is said to be unstable."
James Clerk Maxwell

Offline stayrose38

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #53 on: April 02, 2023, 12:43:26 AM »
Also, at risk of offending the severe weather fanbois, I'd rather see this than another tornado outbreak this month. Enough is enough with that crap. Light freezes aren't going to greatly deter the gardening season or the summer block of torturous humidity. ;)
"When an infinitely small variation of the present state will alter only by an infinitely small quantity the state at some future time, the condition of the system, whether at rest or in motion, is said to be stable but when an infinitely small variation in the present state may bring about a finite difference in the state of the system in a finite time, the system is said to be unstable."
James Clerk Maxwell

Offline Uncledrew

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #54 on: April 02, 2023, 02:17:15 AM »


I'd rather see this than another tornado outbreak this month. Enough is enough with that crap.
Most definitely, any is too many.


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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #55 on: April 02, 2023, 06:16:46 AM »
OHX latest thoughts for Middle TN on next system…

Quote
severe weather potential appears a bit more uncertain as the main upper level dynamics will shift northward away from our region through the day on
Wednesday, leading to weakening wind shear with time. Despite this, plenty of instability looks to be available ahead of the front on Wednesday, so some strong to severe thunderstorms still appear possible. I`d still expect SPC to highlight most of our forecast area and surrounding areas in a slight risk on their newest Day 4 outlook later this morning.

SPC didn’t though (on Day 4). Risk was defined well north of us, more in the Great Lakes region. Day 3 has Tuesday’s risk nudged further west, which still looks like a concern further out in AR and MO, but the risk area shuts off pretty quickly on the western border of TN. Still need to pay attention to trends.

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #56 on: April 02, 2023, 08:10:20 AM »
After the mid-week threat we do shift to a western ridge and eastern trough pattern for the mid-month period.

That should give us a break for at least 7-10 days (hopefully a bit longer). 

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #57 on: April 02, 2023, 08:11:46 AM »
Alta and Brighton, UT are looking at around 50 more inches of snow with this upcoming system.  Depending on how they perform the 2nd half of the month and early May they could exceed 900 inches of snow for the year with an outside shot of 1,000 inches of snow.

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #58 on: April 02, 2023, 01:01:36 PM »
OHX latest thoughts for Middle TN on next system…

SPC didn’t though (on Day 4). Risk was defined well north of us, more in the Great Lakes region. Day 3 has Tuesday’s risk nudged further west, which still looks like a concern further out in AR and MO, but the risk area shuts off pretty quickly on the western border of TN. Still need to pay attention to trends.

Agree pay attention for sure, time for threat risks to change, but for now at least its n/w of us that needs to really be paying attenion

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #59 on: April 02, 2023, 02:20:28 PM »
If the CAP breaks then all h to the e to the double hockey sticks will break loose with all hazards on the table including strong tornadoes and baseball-sized or greater hail, especially to our northwest (from the Ozarks into Iowa/NW IL) but that could slide over into western parts of Kentucky/Tennessee.

If the CAP holds then you may have a line or broken line of storms that has your typical QLCS risk, although as forcing weakens going further southeast you may not even have quite that for southeastern sections of the risk SE ARK/MS/AL/S TN.

 

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