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Author Topic: March 2023  (Read 15187 times)

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Offline Bruce

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #150 on: March 26, 2023, 12:38:58 PM »
May need start a spring 2023 severe weather topic ….
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Navywxman

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #151 on: March 26, 2023, 01:58:48 PM »
When I saw the risk out in TX and OK, my first thought was… is it already happening? That is- the annual transition of large scale risks to move from the Southeast out to the Plains. Some years, the outbreaks will occur closer to the Gulf Coast and then shift further west without affecting the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys too much.

That’s not a forecast, by the way. We still need to be on our guard through April and May before the summer pattern finally sets in.
I do recall seeing talk of previous collapsing Niña going to neutral during spring has resulted in an earlier-ish severe/tornado season for Dixie and the Southern Plains. This wasn't on here but elsewhere.

Offline StormNine

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #152 on: March 26, 2023, 02:02:51 PM »
I do recall seeing talk of previous collapsing Niña going to neutral during spring has resulted in an earlier-ish severe/tornado season for Dixie and the Southern Plains. This wasn't on here but elsewhere.

Often times those can feature years that start off quite active early with regards to tornado-driven threats but then are dead in the water (or switch over towards MCS/Derecho-driven threats) once you get into May, which is what I suspect will happen.  Examples of this include 2002, 2006, 2012, 2017, and 2018.

Offline Bruce

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #153 on: March 26, 2023, 02:46:13 PM »
As conservative kpah mostly are … sounding very concerned on the big system Friday …. On todays afternoon afd
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #154 on: March 26, 2023, 04:14:53 PM »
12z euro is a big time severe outbreak for
Midsouth Friday evening … pushing nearing 2000 cape with low level shear nearly off chart . ::popcorn::
« Last Edit: March 26, 2023, 04:16:52 PM by Bruce »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline StormNine

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #155 on: March 26, 2023, 05:15:42 PM »
Timing would matter with the Friday system. I would think for our area a slightly faster progression would be more favorable for Team Severe (AKA Bruce) and would allow for storms to strike at a more favorable time of day and not along for as much veering winds potentially.  A slower progression probably favors areas around Kansas City more than our area.   

Offline StormNine

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #156 on: March 26, 2023, 05:41:28 PM »
I also feel obligated to mention that we may have another threat around April 3rd-4th as well.  We know that severe weather threats from March 31st to April 8th are almost as much of a tradition as a game of Dallas Cowboys football is on Thanksgiving.   

Offline Bruce

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #157 on: March 26, 2023, 06:04:50 PM »
I also feel obligated to mention that we may have another threat around April 3rd-4th as well.  We know that severe weather threats from March 31st to April 8th are almost as much of a tradition as a game of Dallas Cowboys football is on Thanksgiving.   
actually haven’t looked past Friday yet lol … see it now
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Jason M

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #158 on: March 26, 2023, 08:23:07 PM »
12z euro is a big time severe outbreak for
Midsouth Friday evening … pushing nearing 2000 cape with low level shear nearly off chart . ::popcorn::

GFS paints a screaming LLJ covering TN up Friday evening, I hope that doesn’t pan out…noticed the Euro isn’t quite as bullish with the jet for our area. Friday night is gonna be rough for someone between us and Kansas it’s just too early to see the exact timing of it yet.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #159 on: March 26, 2023, 08:27:11 PM »
The good thing is models have and will likely continue to over paint the picture for severe. Same with winter storms.

Offline Eric

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #160 on: March 26, 2023, 09:07:36 PM »
The good thing is models have and will likely continue to over paint the picture for severe. Same with winter storms.

Until they don't.  They seemed pretty spot-on for MS last Friday. 
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Offline TNHunter

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #161 on: March 26, 2023, 09:10:18 PM »
Until they don't.  They seemed pretty spot-on for MS last Friday.

Possibly, I only pay attention to my surrounding area.

 

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