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Author Topic: April 2023  (Read 16269 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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April 2023
« on: March 28, 2023, 06:41:41 AM »
Saturday is the 1st, so I’ll go ahead and get this one started since forecast is in range. There’s already talk of the next potential severe system early next week, which even the SPC alludes to.

But, with uncertainty even about this end-of-week’s system, that’s something to only be distantly aware of for now and start paying more attention to after the system in the nearer term.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2023, 06:45:45 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline Eric

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2023, 08:33:45 AM »
That April 4/5 system needs to be eagle-eyed.  There's some potential there for folks across the ArkLaMiss/TN Valley areas.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2023, 08:39:26 AM »
That April 4/5 system needs to be eagle-eyed.  There's some potential there for folks across the ArkLaMiss/TN Valley areas.
SPC already starting hint That
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Eric

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2023, 08:45:22 AM »
SPC already starting hint That

Read the disco for the D4 outlook but didn't read down far enough.  For those with interest, here ya go:

Quote
...Days 7-8/Mon-Tue...

   Severe potential could once again increase early next week across
   parts of the Arklatex into the Mid/Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity.
   Another large-scale upper trough is expected to develop eastward
   across the western U.S. on Monday before moving into the central
   U.S. on Tuesday. However, guidance is vastly different in the timing
   of this system and how far north or south the trough will be
   located. While severe potential will likely accompany this system
   and probabilities will likely be needed in later outlooks,
   confidence in where the greatest threat will occur is low at this
   time.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline andyhb

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2023, 07:13:11 PM »
That April 4/5 system needs to be eagle-eyed.  There's some potential there for folks across the ArkLaMiss/TN Valley areas.

There's some potential across a massive area for that one should it evolve correctly.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability

Offline -

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2023, 10:36:56 PM »
Saturday is the 1st, so I’ll go ahead and get this one started since forecast is in range. There’s already talk of the next potential severe system early next week, which even the SPC alludes to.

But, with uncertainty even about this end-of-week’s system, that’s something to only be distantly aware of for now and start paying more attention to after the system in the nearer term.

Thank you, Thunder, for the heads up and keeping us informed. Same to you StormNine, Andy & Eric for the faithful 'knowing the pass ahead of the other' focus today.
For a better weather forum experience, check out the Tennessee Valley group at AmericanWx.com.

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2023, 10:45:19 PM »
Thank you, Thunder, for the heads up and keeping us informed. Same to you StormNine, Andy & Eric for the faithful 'knowing the pass ahead of the other' focus today.
thank you for finally letting the threat sink your head. Lol
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline -

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2023, 10:55:13 PM »
thank you for finally letting the threat sink your head. Lol

? Not sure I follow. Just giving some shout-outs to those who have lended quality commentary today.
For a better weather forum experience, check out the Tennessee Valley group at AmericanWx.com.

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2023, 03:12:11 AM »
Mother of god …. The system around 4/4 … the euro is insane .
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline andyhb

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2023, 04:04:10 AM »
4/4 has ensemble agreement for a potentially widespread, significant severe weather event. Large D7 area outlined in the latest D4-8 outlook.

Quote
HOWEVER, ON TUESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS 
EAST AND SPREADS INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE 
LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY, A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL 
SURGE EAST. RICH GULF MOISTURE ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL 
SUPPLY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-MS/LOWER OH 
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2023, 05:11:41 AM »
2006 is probably a good analog for this upcoming April and severe weather season in general.   

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2023, 05:29:13 AM »
2006 is probably a good analog for this upcoming April and severe weather season in general.
That sucks. Bad memories from that year.

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2023, 08:26:09 AM »
Meanwhile already even OHX Nashville thinking talking bout next Tuesday system ….
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Eric

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2023, 12:21:18 PM »
Not sure what the 12z Euro will show for next week, but the 12z GFS was, umm.....something.   ::wow::

Folks in and around the Ohio/Mississippi River confluence down into the MS Basin need to be paying unfettered attention.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2023
« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2023, 01:04:00 PM »
Not sure what the 12z Euro will show for next week, but the 12z GFS was, umm.....something.   ::wow::

Folks in and around the Ohio/Mississippi River confluence down into the MS Basin need to be paying unfettered attention.
yeah 12zgfs could be red day … Eric you have come alive , posting severe stuff.  Thanks for your input
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

 

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