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Author Topic: March 31st Outbreak  (Read 24013 times)

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Online Bruce

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #60 on: March 30, 2023, 04:24:00 PM »
MEG using the outbreak term
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline andyhb

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #61 on: March 30, 2023, 05:11:47 PM »
Quote
A severe weather outbreak looks imminent across the Mid-South tomorrow. All hazards are possible including: damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, of which a few could be strong and long-tracked.

Yeah that is some strong wording from MEG.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability

Offline InMemphis

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #62 on: March 30, 2023, 06:03:18 PM »
That is definitely some strong wording from MEG.

Offline Flash

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #63 on: March 30, 2023, 06:50:45 PM »
Trey's take on tomorrow (Convective Chronicles).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNWj3MZ8NeY

Love his channel. Thanks for sharing!
For a better weather forum experience, check out the Tennessee Valley group at AmericanWx.com.

Offline Jason M

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #64 on: March 30, 2023, 07:20:46 PM »
Trey's take on tomorrow (Convective Chronicles).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNWj3MZ8NeY

I found his channel after the Mayfield tornado and loved his synopsis video he made on that event…it’s quickly become one of my go-to channels to watch as soon as he posts a new video.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #65 on: March 30, 2023, 07:32:53 PM »
We need a bust from tomorrows system something awful! 🤞🤞🤞

Offline JKT1987

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #66 on: March 30, 2023, 08:29:09 PM »
0z HRRR looks like a bunch of unorganized crap to me  ::shrug::

Online StormNine

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #67 on: March 30, 2023, 08:31:15 PM »
The two failure modes for West TN/East ARK/West KY/MO Boothill will be either not quite enough instability forms or the storms cluster up to quickly (perhaps some VBV) and shorten the window for long-tracked tornadoes.  Mixing may be an issue further south into Arkansas/MS perhaps.

If those fail-safes don't happen then expect a wild day with all supercells and all severe weather hazards on the table.  With still not as strong forcing as further north, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty respectable tornado threat all the way to I-65 in both TN/Northern AL if things form as I'm not and a lot of the short-range models are showing a lot of kinks and breaks in any potential "line" of storms.

Still a conditional but also potentially rough day tomorrow.       

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #68 on: March 30, 2023, 08:35:25 PM »
hrrr blows up around the tn river into the 65 corridor

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #69 on: March 30, 2023, 08:36:52 PM »
The two failure modes for West TN/East ARK/West KY/MO Boothill will be either not quite enough instability forms or the storms cluster up to quickly (perhaps some VBV) and shorten the window for long-tracked tornadoes.  Mixing may be an issue further south into Arkansas/MS perhaps.

If those fail-safes don't happen then expect a wild day with all supercells and all severe weather hazards on the table.  With still not as strong forcing as further north, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty respectable tornado threat all the way to I-65 in both TN/Northern AL if things form as I'm not and a lot of the short-range models are showing a lot of kinks and breaks in any potential "line" of storms.

Still a conditional but also potentially rough day tomorrow.       

It does seem supercellular and broken supercells in mid state per the hrrr

Offline Eric

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #70 on: March 30, 2023, 08:57:05 PM »
VBV can lead to messy storm mode but is not a be all end all.

Mixing leads to lower dew points at the surface, raising LCLs. 
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Offline gcbama

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #71 on: March 31, 2023, 02:01:47 AM »
hrrr storm mode looking dangerous still....discrete supercell look from north ms all the way to the midwest

Online Bruce

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #72 on: March 31, 2023, 03:13:56 AM »
hrrr storm mode looking dangerous still....discrete supercell look from north ms all the way to the midwest
yeah 6z hrrr is just downright sick …
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Online StormNine

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #73 on: March 31, 2023, 04:18:07 AM »
The HRRR is the most aggressive with out in the open discrete action and its spacing has gotten more favorable for strong tornadoes.

It appears the NAM doesn't develop really till closer to the main line although it does show that main line being broken which in and of itself may lead to a decent tornado threat.  The WRF for some reason slams MO/IL/IN and then slams MS/N AL but skips TN.   

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: March 31st Severe Risk
« Reply #74 on: March 31, 2023, 04:50:17 AM »
HRRR  ::bangingheadintowall::

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