March 31st Outbreak

[Eric]

Trey's take on tomorrow (Convective Chronicles).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNWj3MZ8NeY

[gcbama]

nam 3k still says wait until about the mississippi river and eastward towards 65 for the show

[gcbama]

per huntsville

Expect the initial
activity around 9 or 10 PM to be a mix of possibly supercells and
hybrid storms that form into a solid line of strong to severe
storms overnight. Given the strength of the 0-1 km helicity shown
combined with SBCAPE, a significant tornado could occur. Expect
highest threat to be near and west of the I-65 corridor.

[Bruce]

MEG using the outbreak term

[andyhb]

A severe weather outbreak looks imminent across the Mid-South tomorrow. All hazards are possible including: damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, of which a few could be strong and long-tracked.

Yeah that is some strong wording from MEG.

[InMemphis]

That is definitely some strong wording from MEG.

[-]

Trey's take on tomorrow (Convective Chronicles).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNWj3MZ8NeY

Love his channel. Thanks for sharing!

[Jason M]

Trey's take on tomorrow (Convective Chronicles).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNWj3MZ8NeY

I found his channel after the Mayfield tornado and loved his synopsis video he made on that event…it’s quickly become one of my go-to channels to watch as soon as he posts a new video.

[TNHunter]

We need a bust from tomorrows system something awful! 🤞🤞🤞

[JKT1987]

0z HRRR looks like a bunch of unorganized crap to me 

[StormNine]

The two failure modes for West TN/East ARK/West KY/MO Boothill will be either not quite enough instability forms or the storms cluster up to quickly (perhaps some VBV) and shorten the window for long-tracked tornadoes.  Mixing may be an issue further south into Arkansas/MS perhaps.

If those fail-safes don't happen then expect a wild day with all supercells and all severe weather hazards on the table.  With still not as strong forcing as further north, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty respectable tornado threat all the way to I-65 in both TN/Northern AL if things form as I'm not and a lot of the short-range models are showing a lot of kinks and breaks in any potential "line" of storms.

Still a conditional but also potentially rough day tomorrow.       

[gcbama]

hrrr blows up around the tn river into the 65 corridor

[Cody029]

hrrr blows up around the tn river into the 65 corridor

Yeah 0z hrrr far worse for west tn and mid tn vs 18z. Seems faster so it moves in with more instability and daytime heating.

[gcbama]

The two failure modes for West TN/East ARK/West KY/MO Boothill will be either not quite enough instability forms or the storms cluster up to quickly (perhaps some VBV) and shorten the window for long-tracked tornadoes.  Mixing may be an issue further south into Arkansas/MS perhaps.

If those fail-safes don't happen then expect a wild day with all supercells and all severe weather hazards on the table.  With still not as strong forcing as further north, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty respectable tornado threat all the way to I-65 in both TN/Northern AL if things form as I'm not and a lot of the short-range models are showing a lot of kinks and breaks in any potential "line" of storms.

Still a conditional but also potentially rough day tomorrow.       

It does seem supercellular and broken supercells in mid state per the hrrr

[Eric]

VBV can lead to messy storm mode but is not a be all end all.

Mixing leads to lower dew points at the surface, raising LCLs.