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Just for clarification, since some members here yesterday, myself included, were discussing the effect of rained cooled air *in our specific areas*… no one was talking about those areas that saw the tornadoes last night. As I was even making my own comments about the cold pool laid in my area likely hampering the risk here (and, it likely did, as far as I’m concerned… since there were no tornado problems from Dyersburg to Nashville), I was personally still very concerned about the Moderate risk area, particularly in Mississippi since we have friends and family in those areas, though none of them were in the immediate path. Tragic for those who were.By the way, don’t confuse comments suggesting it “less likely” with it “can’t happen.” And, don’t confuse comments about one’s immediate area to say something it doesn’t about the event on the whole or other areas.I was also thinking yesterday (did not actually say it- probably should have now) that I could envision more of a risk nudging up into southern Middle TN, as that area was not as affected by the rain-cooled effect we saw up here further north. Watching CCs on radar late last night, I thought I caught a potential TDS near Fayetteville in southern Middle TN, and now we know there was damage at a hospital.
The Amory, MS radar couplet of the tornado that happened there is the sickest radar signature I have ever seen for a TVS. The folding/glitching in the velocity data in the core of the TVS caused by the pure violence and chaos of the system made it even more disturbing. Like I said last night, I love severe weather, but I am exhausted this year and my home state needs a break, especially after last night.
well....this should make for a interesting drive tomorrow as I head Nashville>Memphis>Little Rock>Texarkana>Dallas.
Having spent yesterday driving through 3 distinct lines as they paralleled I-40 between Jackson, TN and I-30 towards Texas, the worst line hit us near approx. Prescott, Arkansas. So much so that we had to pull over due to such intense wind and heavy rain. We opted to leave several hours earlier than planned to sneak alongside the northern edge of the area of expected intensity and was a good move. However, knowing that these lines then moved in MS and did so much damage a few hours later is heartbreaking. I get how people are awestruck by such intense power - and while nice to experience it as a detected observer; the impact that victims in the path of such dangerous storms should never be overshadowed.
Look at the radar, there is probably multiple intense tornadoes on the ground right now in the moderate risk zone.
This is kind of up to interp....in my opinion a moderate risk verifies if there are multiple (6 or 7+ range) different supercells producing ef2+ damage rather than one or two long track supercells , just my opinion. Much like in my opinion the march 2020 nashville tornado doesn't seem like an "outbreak" but was one powerful long track rogue supercell
By nature, supercells have the capacity to spit out many tornadoes - some big, some small. There's no way in the world the number of parent supercells could be used to quantify a certain level of risk. SPC nailed the forecast, save for the northward extent of the ENH:
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Topic: March 24 Severe Risk (Read 4513 times)
