March 24 Severe Risk

[Thundersnow]

Moderate Risk for Friday in the ARKLAMISS area with Enhanced Risk including west half of TN.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[Bruce]

Moderate Risk for Friday in the ARKLAMISS area with Enhanced Risk including west half of TN.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

large enhanced also from
Little Rock all way to Nashville actually … large
Moderate also.

[StormNine]

We are not too far away from a significant severe threat across NE ARK/MO Boothill/far West TN.

The main questions are is the instability/lift combo good enough out ahead of the line for discrete action and can any capping be eroded to allow for that?  It is very conditional (like every event so far since the Fall including several that didn't produce) but definitely worthy of a 10%/30% hatched tornado/wind probs with greater props in the Arklamiss area.   

[Curt]

From MEG:

Day 2 CIPS Analogs aren`t quite as impressive as they were in
yesterdays 3-day output. The focus for the highest severe threat
has shifted a bit farther north, into central Arkansas, but the
probability of 5+ severe reports has decreased to around 50% to
our west...and only 35-40 percent for most of the Midsouth.

Still looks like south half of Arkansas is more of a target than other areas along with the MS  delta.

[Bruce]

 ::wow::Latest 12zhrrr

[Vols1]

[gcbama]

::wow::Latest 12zhrrr

??
I am seeing linear mode coming through west tn on the hrrr?

[DocB]

well....this should make for a interesting drive tomorrow as I head Nashville>Memphis>Little Rock>Texarkana>Dallas.

[Bruce]

Mysterious quiet in here…. Day before things turn tomorrow …. Todays runs have increased tornado risk over west half tn. Weather it be discrete or semi bowing segment s

[gcbama]

nam 3k looks much more interesting for our area than the hrrr and the hrrr has had some trouble in this range the past few events.....it's a very different solution on the nam 3k than the hrrr

[-]

Mysterious quiet in here…. Day before things turn tomorrow …. Todays runs have increased tornado risk over west half tn. Weather it be discrete or semi bowing segment s

My guess is: Without adequate instability, moisture, and lift, there's just not much to write home about with this system. Granted, my thoughts are more metro-inclined. Assessing the data for middle TN, this seems like a run-of-the-mill threat for most. Certainly seems like the risk is more intense for west TN/KY, perhaps southern middle TN as well.

[Bruce]

Without adequate instability, moisture, and lift, there's not much to write home about this system. Seems like a run-of-the-mill yawnfest to me.

ok

[StormNine]

I would argue that the threat for this shifted has shifted both north and west. If I had to give my zone for more significant severe weather I would say from the Missouri Boothill to far northern LA.  Areas further south of I-20 in LA/MS look to have capping/forcing issues which are semi-common in low-amp trough threats, especially on the southern part of the threat.   

Models in general (minus the NAM which always overdoes instability) struggle to get much instability going, especially east of the TN river.  That is probably due to the rain shield closer to the stationary front sliding out of KY and impacting parts of NW and Middle TN and leaving cloud debris.  If decent (widespread 750+ CAPE) was to develop then a potentially significant severe weather threat could develop. Right now only the NAM is showing that with the 18Z GFS being close but not quite.   

[Dyersburg Weather]

It’s still very conditional but I will say for the first event in a while it has that feel outside. Currently 75/67.

[Bruce]

It’s still very conditional but I will say for the first event in a while it has that feel outside. Currently 75/67.

most severe events are conditional
Like winter events