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Author Topic: March 2023  (Read 8374 times)

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Offline StormNine

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #105 on: March 19, 2023, 10:07:04 AM »
The SPC has outlined a risk area for Day 6 on Friday, which includes much of TN.

At least a localized flash flooding threat may also develop as well. It is a pretty juiced-up airmass that could produce some local 1-2 inch/per hour rainfall rates. 

The severe weather potential is a bit cloudy and will depend on trough evolution and whether the system comes out as a stronger piece or a more sheared/hot mess series of smaller systems. That will determine whether this is just a run-of-the-mill locally heavy rain event or if a legit severe thunderstorm/tornado threat is possible. Probably want to wait till we get to Wednesday before we get too set one way or another. 

Offline Bruce

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #106 on: March 19, 2023, 11:25:32 AM »
At least a localized flash flooding threat may also develop as well. It is a pretty juiced-up airmass that could produce some local 1-2 inch/per hour rainfall rates. 

The severe weather potential is a bit cloudy and will depend on trough evolution and whether the system comes out as a stronger piece or a more sheared/hot mess series of smaller systems. That will determine whether this is just a run-of-the-mill locally heavy rain event or if a legit severe thunderstorm/tornado threat is possible. Probably want to wait till we get to Wednesday before we get too set one way or another.
three things it has going for  this far , ,trough looks negative tilted , long broad based. deep rich moisture return out ahead
« Last Edit: March 19, 2023, 11:27:27 AM by Bruce »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Woodvegas

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #107 on: March 19, 2023, 11:31:57 AM »
 I had some nice spring snow showers this morning, possibly the last of the season.
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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #108 on: March 19, 2023, 01:59:39 PM »
Great snowmaking weather tonight. Wet Bulbs should be groovy


Offline Thundersnow

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #109 on: March 20, 2023, 09:19:53 AM »
Unfortunately, I'm reading that a lot of fruit trees were already blooming out ahead of this hard freeze. This is likely going to hurt local peach crop and other things.

Offline Icestorm

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #110 on: March 20, 2023, 11:50:46 AM »
I had 15 this morning at my house in western Cannon County, after a high of 34 yesterday afternoon.

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #111 on: March 20, 2023, 12:01:04 PM »
Unfortunately, I'm reading that a lot of fruit trees were already blooming out ahead of this hard freeze. This is likely going to hurt local peach crop and other things.

Plant life of took a beating this weekend.

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #112 on: March 21, 2023, 12:04:11 PM »
whats the thinking on the potential event friday....euro has better placement of the LP for storms, what does better at this range euro or gfs

Offline Bruce

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #113 on: March 21, 2023, 01:40:54 PM »
whats the thinking on the potential event friday....euro has better placement of the LP for storms, what does better at this range euro or gfs
glide with the euro Clyde …. The gfs has a nice 50kt lower level jet over area …. The nam slightly more even with winds backed. But nam is not for best range yet…. Euro has today we see
« Last Edit: March 21, 2023, 01:48:01 PM by Bruce »
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #114 on: March 22, 2023, 06:22:25 AM »
Slight risk west half of state for Friday, with Enhanced in the ARKLAMISS tri-state region.

Offline Bruce

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #115 on: March 22, 2023, 02:36:10 PM »
If the latest nam is correct, the enhanced risk come north quite bit… but could be nam just being
Nam this range .
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Offline wfrogge

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #116 on: March 22, 2023, 04:33:03 PM »
Long time no posts.....

If we get the clearing that the 3kmNAM and HRR are showing in NW MS and W TN this will be bad. Tonights model runs will be interesting. 

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #117 on: March 22, 2023, 04:39:29 PM »
Long time no posts.....

If we get the clearing that the 3kmNAM and HRR are showing in NW MS and W TN this will be bad. Tonights model runs will be interesting.

mode looks linear for now

Offline Bruce

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #118 on: March 22, 2023, 04:58:13 PM »
West 65 looks have super cellular discrete activity ahead of a line if the euro  and nam correct
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Offline wfrogge

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Re: March 2023
« Reply #119 on: March 22, 2023, 05:11:02 PM »
QLCS or discrete, still an issue if we get any clearing in the area during the day. Very well could overperform in W TN

 

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