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Author Topic: February 2023  (Read 30882 times)

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Offline StormNine

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #210 on: February 10, 2023, 07:09:51 PM »
Since the mid-week severe system has consolidated into one piece I am quite a bit more concerned about it.

I do stand by my prediction of severe weather season being fairly intense and probably fairly short-lived as the southeast ridge will quickly shift the action to the Plains and Upper Midwest sometime in April. 

Online Bruce

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #211 on: February 10, 2023, 07:26:44 PM »
Since the mid-week severe system has consolidated into one piece I am quite a bit more concerned about it.

I do stand by my prediction of severe weather season being fairly intense and probably fairly short-lived as the southeast ridge will quickly shift the action to the Plains and Upper Midwest sometime in April.
jets phase on the12z euro…. MEG already saying instability and shear no problem this far.   And I agree for what I see modeled . Models been very consistent with a stout EML .  That will help keep the junk convection out of the way for most part, wide open warm sector makes up towards central Illinois .
« Last Edit: February 10, 2023, 07:42:49 PM by Bruce »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Weazel

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #212 on: February 10, 2023, 10:05:11 PM »
The Plateau really hasn't had a great snow this year that I recall.  This may be an interesting event for a place like Grundy County where you may see all rain below say 1,500 feet but have the higher tops of the county covered in snow.

There hasn't been much up here on the Plateau this winter. That spell of bitter cold at Christmas froze the lake over solid for about a week. A few dustings here and there and that's about it. Hopefully I'll be snacking on wings and cheese dip and enjoying the Super Bowl with snow falling.

Offline mempho

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #213 on: February 10, 2023, 10:46:57 PM »
don’t worry bro. Only 15 percent cause it’s out time frame for 30 prob.  Stay tuned

Moderate risk gets my attention a little bit but let me see 45%+ for TOR and wind with hatching is what will really pique my interest.  For us, though, those days usually end up with crapvection.  I can’t remember the last time severe weather when raised my pulse.  It’s been a while.


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #214 on: February 11, 2023, 06:25:12 AM »
Just for fun. Long range GFS.


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Offline StormNine

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #215 on: February 11, 2023, 08:00:14 AM »
The trough geometry is especially concerning with this one with that really long/broad shape and the ski ramp jet streak.

That is a trough geometry that can favor a more discrete/semi-discrete storm mode.   

With the further northwest mode we probably will have two maximum areas of severe potential (one closer to the low-pressure system) and one in the Deep South to maximize the greater instability with somewhat of a lull in the middle.  That may put West/Middle TN and adjacent parts of Southern KY in somewhat of a man in the middle situation.   

It should be noted that most of your major outbreaks including 4/27/11 and 12/10-11/2021 had a lull area somewhere in the threat area. 

Online Bruce

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #216 on: February 11, 2023, 08:38:16 AM »
The trough geometry is especially concerning with this one with that really long/broad shape and the ski ramp jet streak.

That is a trough geometry that can favor a more discrete/semi-discrete storm mode.   

With the further northwest mode we probably will have two maximum areas of severe potential (one closer to the low-pressure system) and one in the Deep South to maximize the greater instability with somewhat of a lull in the middle.  That may put West/Middle TN and adjacent parts of Southern KY in somewhat of a man in the middle situation.   

It should be noted that most of your major outbreaks including 4/27/11 and 12/10-11/2021 had a lull area somewhere in the threat area.
start the thread ::popcorn::
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Mr. Kevin

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #217 on: February 11, 2023, 09:15:08 AM »
start the thread ::popcorn::
Too early Bruce.  ::shrug::

Offline Woodvegas

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #218 on: February 11, 2023, 01:53:07 PM »
Well I guess that’s it then for possible snow tonight…
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Offline Jason M

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #219 on: February 11, 2023, 01:57:57 PM »
Too early Bruce.  ::shrug::
Yeah it’s an impressive looking setup I agree but we definitely should wait till prolly 2 days out at the earliest before we start a thread and that’s if it continues to look bad for our area. All signs right now say yes it will be but we’ve had more busts than hits in recent years.

Offline gcbama

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #220 on: February 11, 2023, 02:49:21 PM »
Yeah it’s an impressive looking setup I agree but we definitely should wait till prolly 2 days out at the earliest before we start a thread and that’s if it continues to look bad for our area. All signs right now say yes it will be but we’ve had more busts than hits in recent years.

Agreed, need the cam's to come into play first....all it takes is our usual crapvection to inhibit the threat , not saying that would happen but more often than not in the past 10 years crapvection takes the threat away

Offline StormNine

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #221 on: February 11, 2023, 03:01:35 PM »
The latest GFS/Euro are back to showing a not-as-ominous setup with the severe weather setup.  Instead of a phased system out ahead of a nice broad-based trough, we have a non-phased system that is in pieces.  Still, I could see a severe setup during the day on Thursday with that pattern, but not the higher-end potential that the model runs the previous 48 hours have shown.

This was an issue we saw during the 2017 and 2021 (minus December) events that caused several events to underperform.   

Offline -

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #222 on: February 11, 2023, 03:27:26 PM »
The latest GFS/Euro are back to showing a not-as-ominous setup with the severe weather setup.  Instead of a phased system out ahead of a nice broad-based trough, we have a non-phased system that is in pieces.  Still, I could see a severe setup during the day on Thursday with that pattern, but not the higher-end potential that the model runs the previous 48 hours have shown.

This was an issue we saw during the 2017 and 2021 (minus December) events that caused several events to underperform.   

Yeah, I see what you're seeing. Less negative tilt. Outside the cone of greatest dynamic support. This is great news!
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Online Bruce

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #223 on: February 11, 2023, 04:01:27 PM »
MEG still robust with system , mention s discrete storm mode before line later . We going see back forth soloution till bout Monday early , by then models lock on to a solution hopefully .
« Last Edit: February 11, 2023, 04:12:32 PM by Bruce »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Online Bruce

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Re: February 2023
« Reply #224 on: February 11, 2023, 04:26:53 PM »
And the 18zgfs says. The 12 z runs were just a blip lol. Back to more phasing streams deeper slp
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