November 2022

[Jason M]

Forcing and being able to fire surface-based convection is going to be a bigger stumbling point than instability or moisture return.  The best forcing is right along and behind the front. 

The flip-side of that coin is that subtle forcing would keep any surface-based convection (if it does form) more cellular in nature favoring a supercell/multicell cluster format versus a linear format.   

Timing is another concern…least for us here in West Tn as it looks to be another overnight event where conditions might actually become more favorable for storms after dark…definitely a bit anxious for Tuesday morning to get here and see what the models look like then.

[Bruce]

Timing is another concern…least for us here in West Tn as it looks to be another overnight event where conditions might actually become more favorable for storms after dark…definitely a bit anxious for Tuesday morning to get here and see what the models look like then.

anxious see the update later around midnite  be day 2 then. There should be upgrade to a moderate risk if data is correct today

[Golfmankevin]

The svr wx event earlier this month in ne TX and sw Arkansas was impressive and the models handled that event really well day before imo. Nam should be entering its more accurate zone very soon

[Bruce]

Latest hrrr is super cell discrete city for several hours …

[schneitzeit]

what I was mainly talking about … northern plains upper Midwest area look have a brutal snowy cold winter

Bruce was right

[Dyersburg Weather]

 

Bruce was right

He!!even my wife is right about once every five years.

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He!!even my wife is right about once every five years.

Dude, lol...here's to next winter being just as cold.