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Author Topic: November 2022  (Read 7628 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #105 on: November 24, 2022, 05:17:46 AM »
Hopefully the wetter pattern showing up in models happens. There are duck holes that haven’t been this dry since 2012.

Offline Cody029

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #106 on: November 24, 2022, 08:21:21 AM »
Hopefully the wetter pattern showing up in models happens. There are duck holes that haven’t been this dry since 2012.
We can only hope. It has been pretty consecutive about showing very good training rains setting up the past few runs though so theres a bit more hope then just 1 run which is good. But it doesn't really give much further up the Mississippi so that issue might still be a thing but from probably Kentucky south should be an improving situation after the next 2 weeks or so. Thats a pretty big spread of 3-4+ inch rains during winter. With even higher amounts flirting around the Tennessee area.

Offline Bruce

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #107 on: November 24, 2022, 09:17:08 AM »
Hopefully the wetter pattern showing up in models happens. There are duck holes that haven’t been this dry since 2012.
3 years of consecutive La Niña sis starting take a toll on the precip table for sure …
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Offline Bruce

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #108 on: November 25, 2022, 06:18:10 AM »
SPC has already day 5. 30 percent threat just sw of midsouth and 15 percent threat most west Tennessee . Time start model watching on this system for me .
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Offline StormNine

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #109 on: November 25, 2022, 09:37:54 AM »
The end of the month into the first 10 or so days of December reminds me very much of December 2007 and 2008 and a little bit of the Christmas to New Year pattern of last year.   

Offline Bruce

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #110 on: November 25, 2022, 12:11:01 PM »
Instability seems be on the upward trend on the 12zgfs here for next Tuesday
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Offline StormNine

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #111 on: November 25, 2022, 06:29:18 PM »
Nashville WX would want to check out Mt. Baker or even lower elevation locations like Leavenworth, WA or Cle Elum, WA in the coming 2 weeks.

Tuesday-Wed Morning has my attention for West TN and points south. I think the moisture return will be there, but I am a bit skeptical on the nature of the forcing. Either in not forming much at all or forming a bunch of elevated mess and junking up the warm sector.  The big picture setup is there but that doesn't mean everything.

There is a reason why 2/5/08 and 12/10/21 events are considered 1 in 12-15 year events and why events like 4/27/11 are considered at least 1 in 25 year events.   


Offline Bruce

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #112 on: November 25, 2022, 07:37:06 PM »
Nashville WX would want to check out Mt. Baker or even lower elevation locations like Leavenworth, WA or Cle Elum, WA in the coming 2 weeks.

Tuesday-Wed Morning has my attention for West TN and points south. I think the moisture return will be there, but I am a bit skeptical on the nature of the forcing. Either in not forming much at all or forming a bunch of elevated mess and junking up the warm sector.  The big picture setup is there but that doesn't mean everything.

There is a reason why 2/5/08 and 12/10/21 events are considered 1 in 12-15 year events and why events like 4/27/11 are considered at least 1 in 25 year events.
still ways go pin point smaller stuff
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Offline Bruce

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #113 on: November 27, 2022, 03:22:11 AM »
Most west Tennessee is now in day 3 enhanced …tornadoes are main threat .
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Offline Bruce

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #114 on: November 27, 2022, 07:18:14 AM »
Most west Tennessee is now in day 3 enhanced …tornadoes are main threat .
a possible upgrade is also possible in later forecast s .
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Offline wfrogge

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #115 on: November 27, 2022, 07:41:21 AM »
Time to start a thread.  This has the potential of being a big event for not only west but middle TN

Offline Bruce

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #116 on: November 27, 2022, 07:45:27 AM »
Time to start a thread.  This has the potential of being a big event for not only west but middle TN
yeah, spc is already saying strong tornadoes possible in north ms, east arkansas and west tn. ::coffee:: november and december have now become the new march. and april around here
« Last Edit: November 27, 2022, 07:47:01 AM by Bruce »
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Offline Bruce

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #117 on: November 27, 2022, 08:17:27 AM »
if latest nam model is correct, the thread needs be fired up now ::wow::
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Offline StormNine

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #118 on: November 27, 2022, 08:43:03 AM »
This is a serious tornado threat

IF

The forcing is there and we either don't have a hot mess warm-sector or not having enough forcing to get surface development. 

The moisture return is there as far north as at least southeast Missouri and the broad-based forcing will keep the storm mode in a supracellular/multi-cell mode. 

Offline StormNine

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #119 on: November 27, 2022, 08:46:01 AM »
Shreveport, LA to Memphis, TN is the ground zero at this time.  There may be another maximum threat in Southeast Missouri/SW Illinois depending on moisture return. Instability rapidly falls apart east of the Tennessee River, but a sustained storm could still maintain severe properties into Western Middle TN perhaps as far east as I-65.

 

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