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Author Topic: November 2022  (Read 7626 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #90 on: November 17, 2022, 10:12:03 AM »
it really dont matter with being little cold air mass place for a period, look back january 99... first year we had sleet ice on ground for week with temps mid teens for lows and sub freezing highs...two weeks later we went to a severe weather pattern quick. january 17th was the big ef4 jackson tornado, than less few days the clarksville tn twister. this air mass really hasnt been that cold  just yet to be honest.

My post may have been misleading- I wasn't saying we can't warm up quickly to get into a severe risk, given the right pattern. Certain weather patterns bring us outbreaks during the cool season, for sure. We're in the "secondary" severe weather season now. There was the terrible outbreak in our area and in KY in just December of last year. But, our current pattern regime isn't particularly conducive to get us to a favorable setup, at least very soon. That could always change a few weeks down the line.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2022, 01:08:28 PM by Thundersnow »

Offline Curt

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #91 on: November 17, 2022, 04:42:54 PM »
Buffalo Forecast

Quote
Tonight A chance of snow showers before 7pm, then snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 30. West wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow after 4pm. High near 33. Breezy, with a west wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Friday Night Snow, mainly before 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 25. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

Offline snowdog

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #92 on: November 18, 2022, 11:33:40 AM »
Buffalo Forecast

Haven't looked at soundings but with temps around 28-32 I would assume this will be a snow with decent moisture content. 2-3' of that type of snow has a lot of weight to it, although I assume most houses up there are designed for it.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #93 on: November 19, 2022, 07:22:55 AM »
It's been a wild ride up here! We have picked up a total of 6" this week, which is an order of magnitude lower than what people in Buffalo and Watertown have received. Sunday will be our big day with 1 to 2 feet in the forecast.

Offline bugalou

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #94 on: November 19, 2022, 12:20:09 PM »
Pretty impressive stuff for a winter weather event.


Offline schneitzeit

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #95 on: November 19, 2022, 09:13:51 PM »
Expecting 12-18" tomorrow in town. Areas inland about 20 miles E of me could see up to 3 feet!

Offline StormNine

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #96 on: November 20, 2022, 07:41:17 AM »
The end of the month into early December looks like early November with a warm spell centered over the center of the country. 

Some long-range folks are starting the pattern also looks a bit like the end of December last year and that mid-December into January could be similar to the success period we had last year in January-early February.   


Offline schneitzeit

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #97 on: November 22, 2022, 01:20:30 PM »
Massive graupel pellets fell on Sunday up here. The lake-effect band was so convective that CAPE was up to 2000 J/kg! It was like a wintertime severe thunderstorm with gusts exceeding 50-60 mph and graupel that was like hail.

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Offline Bruce

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #98 on: November 23, 2022, 01:24:33 PM »
System next week mid week bout … May be our first chance for a severe fall threat …
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline StormNine

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #99 on: November 23, 2022, 01:27:05 PM »
The system the middle of next week has a severe weather chance especially Tuesday to our southwest (the same area that was hit with severe weather a few weeks ago).  We will need to watch that.

We are looking at a -PNA/-NAO mix for the month of December. Not the most favorable for our neck of the woods as a -PNA tends to hurt us more than a -NAO helps us, but it should help build up some snowcover to our north and west.   

Offline Bruce

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #100 on: November 23, 2022, 01:31:13 PM »
The system the middle of next week has a severe weather chance especially Tuesday to our southwest (the same area that was hit with severe weather a few weeks ago).  We will need to watch that.

We are looking at a -PNA/-NAO mix for the month of December. Not the most favorable for our neck of the woods as a -PNA tends to hurt us more than a -NAO helps us, but it should help build up some snowcover to our north and west.
think bulk of cold air this winter going stay northwest … western Canada  and upper
Northern plains … course we I’ll get bits and pieces of it
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline StormNine

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #101 on: November 23, 2022, 01:54:23 PM »
think bulk of cold air this winter going stay northwest … western Canada  and upper
Northern plains … course we I’ll get bits and pieces of it

This winter is ripe to have at least one solid period of classic/brutal cold, particularly in the midsection and Northern Plains/Northern Rocky Mountains if the PV weakens.  If that happens that puts TN areas not named Chattanooga in a good spot for a period of significant snow and/or ice since our region would be on the edge of such an airmass.   

Offline Bruce

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #102 on: November 23, 2022, 02:12:29 PM »
This winter is ripe to have at least one solid period of classic/brutal cold, particularly in the midsection and Northern Plains/Northern Rocky Mountains if the PV weakens.  If that happens that puts TN areas not named Chattanooga in a good spot for a period of significant snow and/or ice since our region would be on the edge of such an airmass.
what I was mainly talking about … northern plains upper Midwest area look have a brutal snowy cold winter
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Golfmankevin

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #103 on: November 23, 2022, 04:27:29 PM »
The system the middle of next week has a severe weather chance especially Tuesday to our southwest (the same area that was hit with severe weather a few weeks ago).  We will need to watch that.

We are looking at a -PNA/-NAO mix for the month of December. Not the most favorable for our neck of the woods as a -PNA tends to hurt us more than a -NAO helps us, but it should help build up some snowcover to our north and west.
Steven, imo, I believe the cold will be pressed further se due to a -epo development and-ao also in tandem with a -nao. As you know, it's still out in lala land. I do hope we have a few opportunities at winter weather in our area because this winter will probably be front loaded
« Last Edit: November 23, 2022, 04:29:06 PM by Golfmankevin »

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: November 2022
« Reply #104 on: November 23, 2022, 10:17:14 PM »
A few more pics from this past weekend

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