November 2022

[schneitzeit]

Expecting 12-18" tomorrow in town. Areas inland about 20 miles E of me could see up to 3 feet!

[StormNine]

The end of the month into early December looks like early November with a warm spell centered over the center of the country. 

Some long-range folks are starting the pattern also looks a bit like the end of December last year and that mid-December into January could be similar to the success period we had last year in January-early February.   

[schneitzeit]

Massive graupel pellets fell on Sunday up here. The lake-effect band was so convective that CAPE was up to 2000 J/kg! It was like a wintertime severe thunderstorm with gusts exceeding 50-60 mph and graupel that was like hail.

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[Bruce]

System next week mid week bout … May be our first chance for a severe fall threat …

[StormNine]

The system the middle of next week has a severe weather chance especially Tuesday to our southwest (the same area that was hit with severe weather a few weeks ago).  We will need to watch that.

We are looking at a -PNA/-NAO mix for the month of December. Not the most favorable for our neck of the woods as a -PNA tends to hurt us more than a -NAO helps us, but it should help build up some snowcover to our north and west.   

[Bruce]

The system the middle of next week has a severe weather chance especially Tuesday to our southwest (the same area that was hit with severe weather a few weeks ago).  We will need to watch that.

We are looking at a -PNA/-NAO mix for the month of December. Not the most favorable for our neck of the woods as a -PNA tends to hurt us more than a -NAO helps us, but it should help build up some snowcover to our north and west.

think bulk of cold air this winter going stay northwest … western Canada  and upper
Northern plains … course we I’ll get bits and pieces of it

[StormNine]

think bulk of cold air this winter going stay northwest … western Canada  and upper
Northern plains … course we I’ll get bits and pieces of it

This winter is ripe to have at least one solid period of classic/brutal cold, particularly in the midsection and Northern Plains/Northern Rocky Mountains if the PV weakens.  If that happens that puts TN areas not named Chattanooga in a good spot for a period of significant snow and/or ice since our region would be on the edge of such an airmass.   

[Bruce]

This winter is ripe to have at least one solid period of classic/brutal cold, particularly in the midsection and Northern Plains/Northern Rocky Mountains if the PV weakens.  If that happens that puts TN areas not named Chattanooga in a good spot for a period of significant snow and/or ice since our region would be on the edge of such an airmass.

what I was mainly talking about … northern plains upper Midwest area look have a brutal snowy cold winter

[Golfmankevin]

The system the middle of next week has a severe weather chance especially Tuesday to our southwest (the same area that was hit with severe weather a few weeks ago).  We will need to watch that.

We are looking at a -PNA/-NAO mix for the month of December. Not the most favorable for our neck of the woods as a -PNA tends to hurt us more than a -NAO helps us, but it should help build up some snowcover to our north and west.

Steven, imo, I believe the cold will be pressed further se due to a -epo development and-ao also in tandem with a -nao. As you know, it's still out in lala land. I do hope we have a few opportunities at winter weather in our area because this winter will probably be front loaded

[schneitzeit]

A few more pics from this past weekend

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[Dyersburg Weather]

Hopefully the wetter pattern showing up in models happens. There are duck holes that haven’t been this dry since 2012.

[Bruce]

Hopefully the wetter pattern showing up in models happens. There are duck holes that haven’t been this dry since 2012.

3 years of consecutive La Niña sis starting take a toll on the precip table for sure …

[Bruce]

SPC has already day 5. 30 percent threat just sw of midsouth and 15 percent threat most west Tennessee . Time start model watching on this system for me .

[StormNine]

The end of the month into the first 10 or so days of December reminds me very much of December 2007 and 2008 and a little bit of the Christmas to New Year pattern of last year.   

[Bruce]

Instability seems be on the upward trend on the 12zgfs here for next Tuesday