Winter 2022-2023

[Crockett]

It's a problem of those who use climate change as a crutch to explain every single weather event or phenomenon...it usually falls flat on its face. I read a news story yesterday that touted Hurricane Fiona as a result of climate change. Seriously? One of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record and now we actually have a hurricane and you're going to pin it on climate change?  I'm not a climate change denier by any stretch of the imagination but it gets old.

My thoughts more in-depth: https://benwgarrett.substack.com/p/in-quiet-hurricane-season-pundits

[TNHunter]

true, but the cycles get warmer

Maybe micro cycles have but we haven’t been on earth long enough to experience true cycles.

[snowdog]

Of course the climate changes, but can you weaponize and monetize it? Just a different method for a different time in appeasing the Gods who control the weather.

[StormNine]

It's intentionally misleading just for clickbait. It drives me absolutely crazy when I see something online that describes a weather event as "climate-change driven."

Or when the media describes every event as historic, biblical, or as occurring without warning, when said event is clearly a 1 in 10 or 1 in 20/30 year event.   
 

[bugalou]

It is a slippery slope to attribute any 1 storm or event with climate change and it really annoys me when the media does this. That said looking at the past 30 years you can certainly see trends of a warming planet and more energetic atmosphere.  It's hard to deny the raw data over time and its very much a real thing if you are going to respect the science and not just opinionize it.  I say this as someone who was a skeptic up until around 2012. It's sad it's become a political issue because that assures it will never consistently be addressed.  I mean at minimum I would think we would all agree dumping exhaust from fossil fuels into the atmosphere is a bad thing if not for climate change then for it harms people's health, its ugly, it makes things messy from soot/dirty rain, and it puts trace amounts of radio activity into the environment. More radio isotopes have been released into the atmosphere burning fossil fuels than every nuclear power disaster combined... times 10. It just diffuse and not concentrated and thus no one considers it, but it's is part of the reason fossil fuel exhaust is a health risk particularly in urban areas.  Its With so much common ground I would hope we would strive for better solutions that provide more abundant power with less bulk resources (EHEM! Nuclear?).

This winter will depend a lot on if the La Nina gets largely east or west based.  A strong east based La Nina is going to make things warm here, but a west based one can be good for winter here.

[Curt]

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/1877_1878_winter.html

Can you imagine the media today with this story in the headlines? Of course , their warmest winter would be harsh for us.

[bugalou]

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/1877_1878_winter.html

Can you imagine the media today with this story in the headlines? Of course , their warmest winter would be harsh for us.

Yeah it would be a circus!  Interestingly enough there was significant atmospheric cooling from the Hunga Tonga-hunga Ha'apai eruption earlier this year in the southern hemisphere and it was a complete hemispheric phenomenon. While it was rated 'officially' as a VEI5 eruption there has been some serious considerations on making it a VEI6 based on findings on the ocean floor.  Its much harder to measure the ejecta since it was partially under water.  It did put enough sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere that it affected the upper air temps with -4 and -5 degree anomalies through the southern Hemisphere.  It did not really translate down to the surface though with so much of the southern hemisphere's surface being ocean. The same level eruption in the northern hemisphere would likely make for a cooler 12-18 months with temp anomalies trending a couple degrees cooler (though not year without a summer type levels).  The main point is, this can happen at any point again.

[mempho]

Interestingly enough, on this topic of climate change and many others, I have given up.  I am convinced that the vast majority of people, including myself and probably including many in the scientific community, have formed opinions around this and other subject matter based on reasons  beyond our control. 

Almost every person on this planet holds the beliefs they have in this priority (facts are simply tools to use or discard based on the beliefs formed by either #1 or #2):

1) The beliefs a person perceives that he or she must believe.
2) The beliefs a person wants to believe.

Even the rare person who values the truth as their absolute priority (even above their own survival) will still be subject to the paradigm imposed on them by the masses who hold a belief for reasons #1 or #2. 

[Dyersburg Weather]

Ryan Vaughn out of Jonesboro is going all in with the 1955/56 analog.

[Bruce]

Ryan Vaughn out of Jonesboro is going all in with the 1955/56 analog.

don’t put away your shorts …

[StormNine]

Ryan Vaughn out of Jonesboro is going all in with the 1955/56 analog.

The temperature departure map for that winter is a bit similar to 2008-09 and even 2000-01 to an extent.  Both are pretty good recent analogs for this upcoming winter. 

[mamMATTus]

I'm regretting putting away my summer clothes at this point.

[TNHunter]

I'm regretting putting away my summer clothes at this point.

Lol who puts away clothes by season? Lol mine all stay in the same dresser and closet year round.

[Bruce]

I'm regretting putting away my summer clothes at this point.

i regret closing my pool actually ….

[TNHunter]

i regret closing my pool actually ….

Lol yea right, the cool October woulda been a no go