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Author Topic: Winter 2022-2023  (Read 6779 times)

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Online Bruce

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #30 on: September 21, 2022, 09:38:31 PM »
Cycles…cycles…cycles.  Weather goes in cycles and always will.
true, but the cycles get warmer
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Crockett

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #31 on: September 22, 2022, 01:18:06 AM »
It's a problem of those who use climate change as a crutch to explain every single weather event or phenomenon...it usually falls flat on its face. I read a news story yesterday that touted Hurricane Fiona as a result of climate change. Seriously? One of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record and now we actually have a hurricane and you're going to pin it on climate change?  ::doh:: I'm not a climate change denier by any stretch of the imagination but it gets old.

My thoughts more in-depth: https://benwgarrett.substack.com/p/in-quiet-hurricane-season-pundits
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Offline TNHunter

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #32 on: September 22, 2022, 05:55:45 AM »
true, but the cycles get warmer

Maybe micro cycles have but we haven’t been on earth long enough to experience true cycles.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #33 on: September 22, 2022, 09:25:17 AM »
Of course the climate changes, but can you weaponize and monetize it? Just a different method for a different time in appeasing the Gods who control the weather.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #34 on: September 22, 2022, 06:14:43 PM »
It's intentionally misleading just for clickbait. It drives me absolutely crazy when I see something online that describes a weather event as "climate-change driven."

Or when the media describes every event as historic, biblical, or as occurring without warning, when said event is clearly a 1 in 10 or 1 in 20/30 year event.   
 
« Last Edit: September 22, 2022, 06:16:37 PM by StormNine »

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #35 on: September 24, 2022, 12:16:38 PM »
It is a slippery slope to attribute any 1 storm or event with climate change and it really annoys me when the media does this. That said looking at the past 30 years you can certainly see trends of a warming planet and more energetic atmosphere.  It's hard to deny the raw data over time and its very much a real thing if you are going to respect the science and not just opinionize it.  I say this as someone who was a skeptic up until around 2012. It's sad it's become a political issue because that assures it will never consistently be addressed.  I mean at minimum I would think we would all agree dumping exhaust from fossil fuels into the atmosphere is a bad thing if not for climate change then for it harms people's health, its ugly, it makes things messy from soot/dirty rain, and it puts trace amounts of radio activity into the environment. More radio isotopes have been released into the atmosphere burning fossil fuels than every nuclear power disaster combined... times 10. It just diffuse and not concentrated and thus no one considers it, but it's is part of the reason fossil fuel exhaust is a health risk particularly in urban areas.  Its With so much common ground I would hope we would strive for better solutions that provide more abundant power with less bulk resources (EHEM! Nuclear?).

This winter will depend a lot on if the La Nina gets largely east or west based.  A strong east based La Nina is going to make things warm here, but a west based one can be good for winter here.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2022, 12:22:41 PM by bugalou »

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #36 on: September 24, 2022, 12:25:27 PM »
https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/1877_1878_winter.html

Can you imagine the media today with this story in the headlines? Of course , their warmest winter would be harsh for us.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #37 on: September 24, 2022, 12:47:22 PM »
https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/1877_1878_winter.html

Can you imagine the media today with this story in the headlines? Of course , their warmest winter would be harsh for us.

Yeah it would be a circus!  Interestingly enough there was significant atmospheric cooling from the Hunga Tonga-hunga Ha'apai eruption earlier this year in the southern hemisphere and it was a complete hemispheric phenomenon. While it was rated 'officially' as a VEI5 eruption there has been some serious considerations on making it a VEI6 based on findings on the ocean floor.  Its much harder to measure the ejecta since it was partially under water.  It did put enough sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere that it affected the upper air temps with -4 and -5 degree anomalies through the southern Hemisphere.  It did not really translate down to the surface though with so much of the southern hemisphere's surface being ocean. The same level eruption in the northern hemisphere would likely make for a cooler 12-18 months with temp anomalies trending a couple degrees cooler (though not year without a summer type levels).  The main point is, this can happen at any point again.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2022, 12:50:43 PM by bugalou »

Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #38 on: October 24, 2022, 02:23:31 PM »
Interestingly enough, on this topic of climate change and many others, I have given up.  I am convinced that the vast majority of people, including myself and probably including many in the scientific community, have formed opinions around this and other subject matter based on reasons  beyond our control. 

Almost every person on this planet holds the beliefs they have in this priority (facts are simply tools to use or discard based on the beliefs formed by either #1 or #2):

1) The beliefs a person perceives that he or she must believe.
2) The beliefs a person wants to believe.

Even the rare person who values the truth as their absolute priority (even above their own survival) will still be subject to the paradigm imposed on them by the masses who hold a belief for reasons #1 or #2. 



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2022, 11:01:29 AM »
Ryan Vaughn out of Jonesboro is going all in with the 1955/56 analog.

Online Bruce

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2022, 11:13:52 AM »
Ryan Vaughn out of Jonesboro is going all in with the 1955/56 analog.
don’t put away your shorts …

BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #41 on: November 03, 2022, 06:10:56 PM »
Ryan Vaughn out of Jonesboro is going all in with the 1955/56 analog.

The temperature departure map for that winter is a bit similar to 2008-09 and even 2000-01 to an extent.  Both are pretty good recent analogs for this upcoming winter. 

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #42 on: November 04, 2022, 12:27:11 PM »
I'm regretting putting away my summer clothes at this point.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #43 on: November 04, 2022, 01:01:05 PM »
I'm regretting putting away my summer clothes at this point.

Lol who puts away clothes by season? Lol mine all stay in the same dresser and closet year round.

Online Bruce

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #44 on: November 04, 2022, 01:16:29 PM »
I'm regretting putting away my summer clothes at this point.
i regret closing my pool actually ….
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

 

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