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Author Topic: Winter 2022-2023  (Read 26330 times)

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Offline Curt

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Winter 2022-2023
« on: September 10, 2022, 04:56:22 PM »
Time for an early look.

ENSO: west based La Niña
PDO: negative
AMO: positive
QBO : positive or west based

Overall, this is similar to a couple winters- 2010-2011  and 2020-2021. With the huge warm pool in the GOA, and a west based Niña, looks like there could be times of arctic air spilling down from Canada, as well as a SER. I think there will be ups and downs- with a decent chance of winter weather at some point. More as we get closer.

Here are a few model forecasts. There is def some similarity on each.


IRI Dec- Feb





CFS2 Dec-Feb


Weatherbell Winter Forecast



Pioneer Model

« Last Edit: September 10, 2022, 09:25:03 PM by Curt »

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2022, 05:28:06 PM »
My outlook is a bit colder than my previous two to three outlooks. 

There will be a stout SE Ridge likely aided by a lot of warmth in the North Atlantic, but there will also be a tendency to pop some +PNA ridges as well. 

I agree with those two analogs but I could also see some 2006-07 (even though that is a Nino), 2017-18, and 2020-21 type play.

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Offline Drifter

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2022, 06:34:16 PM »
How y’all doing? Will be rooting for ya again down there!
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline Bruce

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2022, 06:44:26 PM »
How y’all doing? Will be rooting for ya again down there!
y’all  lol see haven’t lost your southern accent yet .
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Drifter

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2022, 09:25:05 PM »
y’all  lol see haven’t lost your southern accent yet .
Bruce that’ll never happen,I’m more country than buttermilk
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline memphishogfan

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2022, 11:52:54 AM »
Triple Dip La Nina incoming. 

0 GOM hurricanes this year so how does that energy left untapped in the gulf effect the weather.

Do we pull some decent severe events this winter?
« Last Edit: September 15, 2022, 11:56:35 AM by memphishogfan »

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2022, 06:14:52 PM »
Triple Dip La Nina incoming. 

0 GOM hurricanes this year so how does that energy left untapped in the gulf effect the weather.

Do we pull some decent severe events this winter?

The biggest factor that determines severe weather, especially in the cool season is a -PNA.  December 2021 along with Super Tuesday 2008 both featured a dominant -PNA pattern. If we can get a solid -PNA then the potential is there for severe or even significant severe cool weather events especially if we keep the active subtropical jet and go into a split-flow pattern.   

Crockett

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2022, 08:02:36 PM »
Time for an early look.

ENSO: west based La Niña
PDO: negative
AMO: positive
QBO : positive or west based

Overall, this is similar to a couple winters- 2010-2011  and 2020-2021. With the huge warm pool in the GOA, and a west based Niña, looks like there could be times of arctic air spilling down from Canada, as well as a SER. I think there will be ups and downs- with a decent chance of winter weather at some point. More as we get closer.

Here are a few model forecasts. There is def some similarity on each.


IRI Dec- Feb





CFS2 Dec-Feb


Weatherbell Winter Forecast



Pioneer Model



I would take a 2010-2011 repeat in a heartbeat. Three 6+ inch snowfalls in December (including one on Dec. 24-25).

Offline Bruce

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2022, 08:08:21 PM »
I would take a 2010-2011 repeat in a heartbeat. Three 6+ inch snowfalls in December (including one on Dec. 24-25).
love another 2010 2011 also … mainly because of spring 2011 that followed that winter
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2022, 08:47:48 PM »
love another 2010 2011 also … mainly because of spring 2011 that followed that winter

I'm sure the hundreds of people who died that spring would love that too

Offline Bruce

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2022, 09:56:55 PM »
I'm sure the hundreds of people who died that spring would love that too
part of severe weather unfortunately
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2022, 03:16:50 PM »
Bruce that’ll never happen,I’m more country than buttermilk

But do you put cornbread in your buttermilk?

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2022, 06:53:38 PM »
But do you put cornbread in your buttermilk?

I do that, but not as often as I put hot sauce on my grits.  8)

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2022, 07:25:24 PM »
I am hoping for another decent winter...had two great ones in a row here in lewis county, double digit totals back to back for the first time in a loooong time, let's make it three in a row! :)

Last years 9 inch snow in Jan was just wonderful

If i can get two minor 2-3 inch wwa type events and one large WSW event of 4-6+ every season I am perfectly happy! Used to always be that way and hoping the trend continues

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2022-2023
« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2022, 11:08:11 AM »


Only 4 examples since 1900 of a 3rd La Niña years. Take your pick.

 

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